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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #1,061
  • Mar 21, 2020 4:34pm Mar 21, 2020 4:34pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} ....the entire capitalistic world system will actually be reformed, remodeled and rebuild at some point...it seems that the world in a few years from now will look quite different than it used to be... the world economy might never fully recover and come back to "business as usual" stage...
how do you envision the new economy will look?
  • #1,062
  • Mar 21, 2020 6:09pm Mar 21, 2020 6:09pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} the probability that the markets are set to revisit sub 2009 levels is increasing day by day... it's a long shot though and might take time... for the moment on the DJIA 18300 is a must... in my view, levels somewhere at around 18100 mark is the most attractive zone before some correction might occur... any rally have to be viewed as a selling opportunity... overall, going short should be preferred in case some substantial bounce is seen...
Good call. Its got a way to go down still. On a PE basis we are headed back to the mean for sure.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
  • #1,063
  • Mar 21, 2020 9:23pm Mar 21, 2020 9:23pm
Covid is the conduit to the future, remember robots are coming and workers from all industries will loose their jobs. Covids is forcing even the most conservative governments to think in terms of universal incomes, we are not there yet. Also the whole concept of deficits will be revisited, the value of money is an agreement between government, they just need to change the agreement, then deficits and surplus will be a thing of the past, Keynesian economics is dead.
  • #1,064
  • Mar 22, 2020 3:17am Mar 22, 2020 3:17am
Quoting PeterE
{quote} how do you envision the new economy will look?
at this moment it's impossible even to suggest more or less logical views on the immediate future... apparently the situation is totally out of control now and the world economy cannot be saved in case this mess continues for a few more months... though in any case it looks like the globalization process has come to its end... financial capital, being unable to reproduce itself, is to lose the battle with the real sector of the economy and will be forced to step down to where it actually belongs... currently it has about 50% share in the economy and I guess it's likely to shrink back to 5-7% as it used to be in mid 20-th century... all domestic and international governmental, corporate and private debts to be wiped out... liberal ideology, its models and projects will be abandoned in favor of conservative ones... free markets and competition will be replaced with some sort of governmental "dynamic planning" system... and so on...
  • #1,065
  • Mar 22, 2020 4:22am Mar 22, 2020 4:22am
apparently the decision makers in the govs all over the world must have some sort of split personality syndrome... at the same time they impose more and more quarantine measures which are actually killing the economy, while on the other hand also trying to support it by injecting tons of money into the system... from my perspective it makes zero sense whatsoever... calling up for national guards in most of the US States to enforce quarantines is also not a solution... those soldiers are people and not robots... gathering together they will spread the disease among themselves within those military units even faster than it's being seen among general civilian population... as it seems there is no other way out but to let the virus take its death toll till it loses its momentum naturally...
  • #1,066
  • Mar 22, 2020 4:38am Mar 22, 2020 4:38am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} at this moment it's impossible even to suggest more or less logical views on the immediate future... apparently the situation is totally out of control now and the world economy cannot be saved in case this mess continues for a few more months... though in any case it looks like the globalization process has come to its end... financial capital, being unable to reproduce itself, is to lose the battle with the real sector of the economy and will be forced to step down to where it actually belongs... currently it has about 50% share in the...
Hi Igrok
What you are describing here is some sort of communism or dictatorship . Majority of people dont want that and want to live in democracy .
  • #1,067
  • Edited 5:56am Mar 22, 2020 5:37am | Edited 5:56am
Quoting Plasma
{quote} Hi Igrok What you are describing here is some sort of communism or dictatorship . Majority of people dont want that and want to live in democracy .
sure... I don't like it either... though it's unlikely that such a thing can be avoided... the problem is that the concept of modern capitalism which is bases on constant economy growth has run out of steam... there are no more free markets left to expand to... the planet has reached its capacity limitations... financial sector has taken about 50% share in the economy while producing absolutely nothing...from this basic formula "money-goods-money" goods have disappeared and now money make other money directly...that's exactly what all of us on this forum are doing... at the same time the consumption of general population cannot be expanded further and indefinitely as most of the people are already in debts up to their teeth... about a half of the people in US do not even pay income tax... over 60% don't even have a thousand dollars on their savings bank accounts... almost everything that people earn they have to pay back to their debtors... apparently such a situation wasn't gonna last forever... the virus disaster has just sped up the processes that would have taken place in any case inevitably...
  • #1,068
  • Mar 22, 2020 6:19am Mar 22, 2020 6:19am
Quoting Igrok
apparently the decision makers in the govs all over the world must have some sort of split personality syndrome... ...
Occam razor is useful here - have You imagined that the decision makers responsible for manufacturing this crisis are NOT the same decision makers that fight it?
I.e. the central banks including Fed and Trump are not privy to the whole plot ? Because it was originated by the political elite outside of USA, perhaps?
  • #1,069
  • Mar 22, 2020 12:15pm Mar 22, 2020 12:15pm
Quoting p3yd5
{quote} Occam razor is useful here - have You imagined that the decision makers responsible for manufacturing this crisis are NOT the same decision makers that fight it? I.e. the central banks including Fed and Trump are not privy to the whole plot ? Because it was originated by the political elite outside of USA, perhaps?
QUESTION: Dear Mr Armstrong
NOW in Italy
– use of drones by municipalities to CONTROL citizen and their movements
– you are allowed to exit from home only for go to supermarkets, chemistry, or walk with yr dog. Police could stop you n check and if you are out of yr home for a walk, they bring you in prison, you will have a quick judgment and to pay 300 euro, you will have a penal note and you will no more have the possibility to try to work in government or politic, you are permanently …signaled (as Scarlett letter!!)
– you can stay at max 200meters from home
– quarantine will be extended from 3rd April (present expected time to finish quarantine) till end of April
-schools closed until easter
WE ARE UNDER DICTATORSHIP!
ECONOMY DESTROYED, SOCIAL TISSUE DESTROYED, FREEDOM CANCELLED!! All in 2 weeks’ time!
Please… WHAT COULD WE DO, NOW?!!
ANSWER: I really do not know. There is a major movement toward authoritarianism. Perhaps because they know the system is collapsing and they are using this as the excuse. I had an exchange with a doctor who said they need the quarantine and I am spreading dangerous information. I asked him to look at his pension funds. Are any left? He went silent. There is something wrong here. You do not destroy the world economy on this magnitude to even save 25,000 lives. Even if 40% of the population got this, with a death rate which is less than 3% (8% among the elderly), it does not warrant this economic destruction. They are wiping out small businesses, countless people have lost their jobs, others their entire pension fund, and there is no putting this back together again as nothing happened. This is a intentional economic destruction that is being carried out for an undisclosed purpose.
There is another agenda going on and they have even all the conspiracy people yelling this virus is understated and it will be exponential when that has not been the evidence in China or even Italy. Very curious what is the end objective here. How many small business will be wiped out. Countless jobs are being destroyed. I am looking at who is calling us in and who is not. Those who are not do not need help and are not in a state of panic for a reason.
  • #1,070
  • Mar 22, 2020 1:48pm Mar 22, 2020 1:48pm
Quoting p3yd5
{quote} Occam razor is useful here - have You imagined that the decision makers responsible for manufacturing this crisis are NOT the same decision makers that fight it? I.e. the central banks including Fed and Trump are not privy to the whole plot ? Because it was originated by the political elite outside of USA, perhaps?

from my personal perspective it's possible... however I can't see the beneficiaries now... perhaps initially there was a plot against something or someone, but apparently it went out of control completely...

here is the exempt from Department of State Telegram Transmitting Letter From Chairman Khrushchev to President Kennedy, October 26, 1962 https://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct26/doc4.html

"We must not succumb to intoxication and petty passions, regardless of whether elections are impending in this or that country, or not impending. These are all transient things, but if indeed war should break out, then it would not be in our power to stop it, for such is the logic of war. I have participated in two wars and know that war ends when it has rolled through cities and villages, everywhere sowing death and destruction."

so, in this case it might be a pure terrorist attack against the whole world only...
  • #1,071
  • Mar 22, 2020 2:55pm Mar 22, 2020 2:55pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote}There is something wrong here. You do not destroy the world economy on this magnitude to even save 25,000 lives. Even if 40% of the population got this, with a death rate which is less than 3% (8% among the elderly), it does not warrant this economic destruction. They are wiping out small businesses, countless people have lost their jobs, others their entire pension fund, and there is no putting this back together again as nothing happened. This is a intentional economic destruction that is being carried out for an undisclosed purpose. There...
I am inclined to agree. In the 2017-2018 flu season (from December through March) the CDC reported JUST FOR THE US ~ 45 million cases, an estimated 810,000 flu-associated hospitalizations and an estimated 61,000 flu-associated deaths. compare that to where we are now in the US with the SARS-CoV-19 virus....not even close. But no actions were taken for the flu season and we averaged well over 16,000 deaths every month for those four months! Granted, we probably haven't seen the four month peak of this virus yet, but it does seem like we are taking extraordinary measure to bring pretty much everything to a standstill......fifty years from now there will be a Netflix documentary about this, and possibly why it was treated so differently....
  • #1,072
  • Mar 22, 2020 4:33pm Mar 22, 2020 4:33pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} I am inclined to agree. In the 2017-2018 flu season (from December through March) the CDC reported JUST FOR THE US ~ 45 million cases, an estimated 810,000 flu-associated hospitalizations and an estimated 61,000 flu-associated deaths. compare that to where we are now in the US with the SARS-CoV-19 virus....not even close. But no actions were taken for the flu season and we averaged well over 16,000 deaths every month for those four months! Granted, we probably haven't seen the four month peak of this virus yet, but it does seem like we are...
No, coronavirus isn't the same as the flu https://www.thelocal.se/20200312/no-coronavirus-isnt-the-same-as-the-flu
  • #1,073
  • Mar 22, 2020 5:31pm Mar 22, 2020 5:31pm
target reached Igor, As for beneficiaries tech companies, Healthcare , pharma through all phases of the pandemic, including post. All Government is shit scared of losing control and panic which is what has been avoided through isolation (controlled). All systems be them communism capitalism etc fail (by fail I mean have to use violence to continue functioning) when economies shrink. In all Governing styles when the pie is shrinking they have to take from someone who "loses" and give it to someone else when the pie is growing the same thing happens but the pain is less severe. Its times like these that we really see that a Government is a monopoly on violence. Not sure on your "Hydra" theory with someone behind the economic drop, perhaps more of an environment conducive to this outcome rather than by design.
  • #1,074
  • Mar 22, 2020 5:58pm Mar 22, 2020 5:58pm
Quoting Igrok
it seems on Monday the Dow will gap down big time... "Keep your arms and legs inside the carpet"...
S&P futures did indeed gaped down at the opening on Monday, immediately exceeded the 5% limit and trading got interrupted once again... it's quite a bad sign given the fact that enormous measures to keep the US stock market afloat were announced on Sunday... it really appears that the market completely ignores all the financial and economic stimulus attempts to turn it around somehow... what a scary stuff, really... I wish I was wrong on my projections from the very beginning... it's gonna be a totally different world after the virus...
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  • #1,075
  • Mar 22, 2020 6:08pm Mar 22, 2020 6:08pm
Quoting Edd111111
target reached Igor, As for beneficiaries tech companies, Healthcare , pharma through all phases of the pandemic, including post. All Government is shit scared of losing control and panic which is what has been avoided through isolation (controlled). All systems be them communism capitalism etc fail (by fail I mean have to use violence to continue functioning) when economies shrink. In all Governing styles when the pie is shrinking they have to take from someone who "loses" and give it to someone else when the pie is growing the same thing happens...
putting all the theories aside I have to admit that I'm amazed myself by the market's ability to encrypt all the info about the future in its past historic charts... they are quite readable indeed... pretty much like reading a paper with the story about future events...
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  • #1,076
  • Mar 22, 2020 8:13pm Mar 22, 2020 8:13pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} No, coronavirus isn't the same as the flu https://www.thelocal.se/20200312/no-coronavirus-isnt-the-same-as-the-flu
No, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is NOT the same as the seasonal flu, but before any comparison of the two are dismissed out of hand, you just have to make sure you are comparing apples to apples: As per the CDC, in the confirmed cases of COVID-19 (the actual disease) in China, overall fatality rate was 2.3%, with the majority of those cases among hospitalized patients. That is bad, no doubt about it. But with the 2017-2018 flu season, 61,000 deaths occurred, with a majority being from the 810,000 flu-associated hospitalizations, for an overall fatality rate of over 7.5%!

Right now there is roughly 336,000 that have tested positive for the virus, with roughly 98,000 of those in total recovery (14,641 deaths). However, since the majority of individuals exhibit no symptoms to mild symptoms that do not require medical intervention, both of these numbers are going to be artificially low, since most people will just self medicate with OTC medicine until they get better. With the total confirmed number being artificially low, it skews the death rate to an artificially high level if just determined mathematically, e.g., with 14641 deaths and 336,000 confirmed, the fatality rate is about 4.4%....but if the total confirmed was actually five times that, the fatality rate would be 0.87%...big difference!

People are panicking because it is a virus that has not been found in humans before, not much is known about mutations, and there is no vaccine for it yet. Not because it is necessarily deadlier than other viruses, or more contagious.

No, it is not just the flu.....but if you compare apples to apples, that might not be such a bad thing......
  • #1,077
  • Mar 23, 2020 12:42am Mar 23, 2020 12:42am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} No, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is NOT the same as the seasonal flu, but before any comparison of the two are dismissed out of hand, you just have to make sure you are comparing apples to apples: As per the CDC, in the confirmed cases of COVID-19 (the actual disease) in China, overall fatality rate was 2.3%, with the majority of those cases among hospitalized patients. That is bad, no doubt about it. But with the 2017-2018 flu season, 61,000 deaths occurred, with a majority being from the 810,000 flu-associated hospitalizations, for an overall...
SARS-CoV-2 virus is NOT the same as the seasonal flu, because it's absolutely deadly for the World economy... it has 100% fatality rate... one world, one economy, one death...
  • #1,078
  • Mar 23, 2020 2:31am Mar 23, 2020 2:31am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} SARS-CoV-2 virus is NOT the same as the seasonal flu, because it's absolutely deadly for the WESTERN World economy... it has 100% fatality rate... one world, one economy, one death...
Corrected for You.
China is on the way to recover, S.Korea ditto, Japan is not affected it seems.
  • #1,079
  • Mar 23, 2020 3:01am Mar 23, 2020 3:01am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} from my personal perspective it's possible... however I can't see the beneficiaries now... perhaps initially there was a plot against something or someone, but apparently it went out of control completely...
I digress. I see that control is pretty much there, and we are marching towards ID2020 with associated "perks" as planned.
Italy has been made an example and is simply a collateral damage.
  • #1,080
  • Mar 23, 2020 3:01am Mar 23, 2020 3:01am
Quoting p3yd5
{quote} Corrected for You. China is on the way to recover, S.Korea ditto, Japan is not affected it seems.
to me it's quite apparent that Chinese numbers are bogus... Japan is easy to control because of natural geographic isolation... S.Korea will see... in any case they all depend on the American market demands and can't recover economically on their own...
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