The Jail Break System

GBP/USD 4 hour chart update.

I look for this pair to retrace back to at least 1.15500

Then turn around and retrace higher to 1.17500

If it does indeed make it to 1.15500 I will enter my buy order.

I know that the outside candle is green on the this 4 chart, but don't let that fool you.

That's a trap candle, that's the market maker is saying to you buy buy buy.

The market maker needs buyers to trap so he can move the pair lower.

If the market maker doesn't get enough buyers, then the pair will trade sideways until he does.

Thanks Brad for the charts ,not withstanding the weekend...

You're welcome, I usually post charts on the weekend.

Understanding this GBP/JPY 4 hour chart.

Looking at the chart you'll see 2 red check marks by 2 green candles.

Now this pair has moved up from 124.000 to 129.071

And to look at this chart you'll think it's moving up.

Not so fast, those 2 green candles are fuel.

The fuel that the market maker needs to push the pair back to 127.000

All those buyers 153,436 lots to be exact are in those 2 green candles.

If the market maker pushed this pair back to 127.000 he could probably grab most of those lots.

Now the big red candle that is inside the box has 90,512 lots in it.

If you had a choice what would you rather have 153,436 lots or 90,512 ?

This is how the market maker moves the market, never in a straight line just like Trader Ron says.

Thanks PC.
Very good lesson on the MM moves.

I am wondering, How do you figure the lots on those candles? Is there a tool or website info you use to determine?

impressive trading! Shorting bottoms like AJ is ballsy

Hey guys - just received this weekly update from one of my platform providers. Ignoring the occasional comments on their indicator tools it makes an interesting read and hopefully some of you will find it useful:

The last couple of weeks has been tough (unless you’re short S&P futures!). I won’t get into whether this fall is justified or not, and no matter the cause, there are opportunities that only come along once or twice a decade. If you are in the “red”, or you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for an opportunity to get back into the market, the time to get back in the market may soon be upon us (some may argue that it’s already here).
Market Is On Sale!
We now have a situation where the market is on sale. It’s like your local department store offering a Black Friday special with 50% off. You need to take advantage of that. You can’t wait for the prices to go back up and then go into the store and ask for last week’s discounted price!
Really—don’t do that!
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We’re Going To Recover
If this is your first crash as an investor, let me assure you this is nothing new. We’re going to recover. In times like this I find it helpful to look at history to give me a guide on what to expect going forward. When we look at previous crashes, we see the market always recovers—yes always! Sometimes reasonably quickly, and sometimes a few years later, but it always recovers and eventually goes on to make new highs.
The only losers in a market crash are those who sell at the bottom and walk away. Unfortunately there will be traders and investors who jumped into the market at the top who will walk away saying “I knew the share market was rigged”. We see it every time there is a crash.
A List Of Previous Crashes
Normally we say we are in a bear market when the market retraces 20% from the highs. For this quick study I have used 30% since it identifies a more aggressive event. In the table below, I list :
The date the market crossed the 30% drawdown level.
The total drawdown to the lowest closing value.
How many weeks from the high to the 30% cross.
How many weeks from the 30% cross to the lowest low.
How many weeks from the 30% cross until the market got back to the previous highs.
DATE CROSSING 30% (WEEK)TOTAL DRAWDOWNWEEKS FROM HIGHWEEKS UNTIL LOWWEEKS TO RECOVER
10th Oct 200852%5121206
21st Sep 200136%13010208
23rd Oct 198735%15089
16th Aug 197445%8315418
29th May 197033%750127

This is all calculated on the Dow Jones Industrials Index since we have the most history for it. The vertical lines are the 30% crosses below — when the DJI broke through the 30% drawdown level. The green line is the 30% drawdown level (a new tool in Optuma from Alan Hull). The chart is on Logarithmic Scale since it allows us to compare the crashes in percentage terms.
https://cdn1.optuma.com/wp-content/u.../image10-1.png
Since World War 2 we have had five drawdowns of more than 30%. Five samples is a small number to work from, but we can see every time we have an event like this, the market rebounds. What I am more interested in is which type of crash is this current environment most like?
Of the five crashes shown, only the 1987 event came without a preceding change in trend in the market. Every other crash happened at least a year after the major high in the market while the market was in an obvious bear phase. The quickest crash to hit the 30% level was 1987, and it was also the quickest to recover.
1974 was interesting because it was the result of the first oil crisis. The second oil crisis was in 1979 and while we did not get a 30% drawdown then, it delayed the 1974 recovery. It is also interesting that we are having another fun time with oil 45 years on!
https://cdn1.optuma.com/wp-content/u...e6-960x656.png
Fastest Crash Ever
Looking at where we are right now, we have just crossed the 30% mark this week. That’s only five weeks from the all-time high, and that makes this the fastest 30% crash in the Dow Jones in the past 120 years. 1929 was the next fastest at nine weeks.
Another Depression?
Could this be just like 1929? Could it extend into a major depression? We can never rule it out, but I think it highly unlikely (despite the 90 year cycle from 1929 and 45 year cycle from the oil crisis). Yes this is a major event, and yes it will take years to recover, but with Interest Rates so low economic expansion will be relatively easy and the only place where investors can get yields will be in the stock market once we deal with the fear of the pandemic. Ultimately it could be the hunt for investment yield which will fuel the recovery more than anything else.
With trials already underway on cures and vaccines, this crisis could be over almost as quickly as it started. Since the cause for the panic is the Covid-19 virus, as soon as a solution is available confidence will return. Then there will be a rush on investments which could lead to a massive bull market.
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Historical Comparison
A better way to look at all the recoveries from the 5 previous crashes is to chart the relative performance of the DJI from each of the 30% drawdowns. This chart compares them from their 30% cross to just over two years after the cross. The scale at the bottom is the number of weeks since the crash. The y-axis is the percentage return from the cross date.
https://cdn1.optuma.com/wp-content/u...-1-960x733.png
You can see that within two years all the previous crashes were followed by some significant gains.
A couple of important take-aways:

1. The market will recover. The faster it falls, the faster it usually recovers.
2. The average drop over the past five crashes was 40%. We’re already at 32% (may be more by the time you read this).
3. You don’t need to rush. Wait for a clear signal that the trend is changing before jumping back in the market. This is what Technical Analysis is for!
4. Don’t let this opportunity pass you by.

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Possible Trend Signals
If I think about the purpose of Technical Analysis I have to go all the way back to Charles Dow in the 1800’s. The reason he created his indexes (or “averages” as he called them) was so he could get a feel for the overall trend of the market. He is one of the first to suggest that investors only trade in the direction of the trend.
We need to use our analysis to identify when the trend is changing. Indicators we can use range from Trend Lines to Moving Averages to ADX. All can be used as a way of determining when the trend has changed back up.
Whenever I think of trend change signals, I always think of Swings. Gann called these his Trend Detector, and they are great for times like this. Sure you will not get the very bottom of the market, but it’s better to wait for clear signals and avoid the pain of getting in too soon.
Gann’s rules said that the trend changed when a previous swing high or low was taken out (see the colour changes on the chart below).
[If you want to know more, we have a two-part webinar on Gann Swings here.]
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https://cdn1.optuma.com/wp-content/u...-2-960x756.png
No indicator is 100% foolproof. There was a failed change in trend in Jan 2009, but that does not take away from the Swings being a great way of giving us an objective measure of trend direction.
Stay Safe
We don’t know how long this will take to be resolved. Take the time to study history and work out when it is the right time for you to get back in. It’s always a balance of risk and reward, but the numbers help us clear through all the noise and focus on the market. Remember to be skeptical of what you hear in the media, and follow the charts.
Pictured below is a chart in the “Chart Room” at Fidelity Management and Research in Boston. It reminds the staff that media stories always appear the most bearish at the bottom of the market.
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My analysis on USDJPY including a trade idea.

Any comments, thoughts .... are appreciated!

USDJPY

Monthly:
112.00 – 114.00 very strong support
Februar 2020 shooting star 112.00 – 108.50
last 112.00 high May 2019

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Weekly:
last week (calendar week 12) high 111.496 CLOSE below 111.50!!!!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Daily:
Friday 20.03. got rejected @ 111.496
inside bar with very small body, larger sell side wick, lot of selling pressure

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Fundamentals:
corona crisis hits entire world's economy, central banks are flooding the market with cash
entire world wants to buy USD, USD is way too strong
coordinated central bank intervention announced in calendar week 13

Trade Idea:
Sell Stop @ 110.50ish area
SL @ 112.50ish area
TP open

Hi LvMMT,

Thank you and am sure you have a great weekend too.

Cheers.

Hi Wellington,

Very good post.

Hi Davit.

Thank you.

Welcome back. Please do stay around.

Nice thread at Pivot trading.
Pivot traders are making nice
Will be there one day.

Hello traders.

Heads up for USDJPY buy trade.

USDJPY still has scope to head higher to 112 - 114.500 after correction.

112 - 114.500 still in play.

We will also see some nice drops in XAUUSD ( Gold )

Still holding my short USDJPY at 111.220. Targets will be at 110.500 - 110.000 then will be looking for buy trade. Will see how price react at that levels before buying.

Cheers.

EURGBP Hourly Chart. See below image to understanding of a structure. Look at my Higher High is the reversal short point. The first Lower High is my first level. The second Lower High is my second level which will be heading back down to the new Lower Low at 0.89000 which then be a correction.. look at all those Lower Low are correction area which I have underlined.

For those who wants to short. I’m in next week for short trade.

EURGBP - Price is currently forming bearish structure with price forming a confirmed Lower High and an evening star. I’m expecting price to follow the structure and to create a new Lower Low.

Targets set at 0.89000.

Cheers.

Evening all!
attached is my understanding of what is going on this month and the way forward. Take it or leave it!! The key is DXY and subsequently all related and correlations. You can pull up any chart and check for yourselves. The patterns created on the monthly show same story on all related pairs + BC. This also on lower TF.
Points to note are the clear manipulation points, when and where and why then. Note how the point of the wedge formed and the subsequent breakout down taking out anything below up to OCT 2018. This following the measly 500B the FED offered at the start of the month as support. All this prior to the FED announcing the extra 4TR+. Once te FED announced an extra 4+ Trillion in inflatable actions thru to April 13th, the immediate 'effect' of shaking out the induced sellers of the trendline break and wedge break down., continuation of uptrend to the 103 mark. and subsequent ranging and shaking between 102 and 103. all this to attract Buyers and sellers between that range. THEN on weekly, Expect a sellers induction down from30thMarch to 5th, below 102 and possibly 100.0ish. Note that April 3rd is NFP Friday THEN A BULLISH weekly candle induction,probably engulfing, up past 103 but maybe not past the previous high so as not to release trapped buyers from earlier push up, from April 6th leading us up to Easter 12th and Bank Hols 13th.to close off the week. Coinciding with the FEDS failed inflationary boost end - Easter! What a better time to skin all those trend riders from 2017. Nothing is a coincidence when it comes to the financial markets.
Stay safe and exit USD longs well in time is my 2 cents worth advice.

We could also see some GBP cross pairs to strengthen.

Nice post mate.

As mention in my earlier posts that Im also expecting a crash back down for Dollar Index ( DXY ) to go down below 90 - 88 area slowly and surely it will happen very soon. Remember too strong dollar is not what Trump wants.

EURGBP - Link to post 9035.

It it about time for EURUSD and GBPUSD for buy reversal trade.. let see next week how price react for these 2 pairs.

Gonna take some rest soon... not feeling well... see you guys soon... not surprise to see some GAPS when market opens later. Trade with care...

Good night.