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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #1,041
  • Mar 19, 2020 12:17pm Mar 19, 2020 12:17pm
Oil has reached its target with initial reaction to the line. If it don't hold well perhaps $10 will be the next. Maybe the rest of the world will live an experience of Venezuelans where gasoline is free and hopefully we will stop at that case rest of the Venezuelan phenomena is not as pleasant.
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  • #1,042
  • Mar 19, 2020 1:45pm Mar 19, 2020 1:45pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} the other ones I liked up as you can see... the book by Mikhail Khazin is most likely to get translated into English and published in summer...
Hi Igrok,
Do you think the market will bounce up from the current levels or will it keep to go down? If so to what level?
Thank you
Marc
  • #1,043
  • Mar 19, 2020 7:20pm Mar 19, 2020 7:20pm
Quoting PeterE
{quote}A team of infectious disease experts at the University of Queensland in Brisbane say they have seen two existing medications manage to wipe out COVID-19 infections. Chloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, and HIV-suppressing combination lopinavir/ritonavir have both reportedly shown promising results in human tests and made the virus 'disappear' in infected patients. link (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8115879/COVID-19-Australian-researchers-CURE-coronavirus.html)

It's looking increasingly like chloroquine/ hydroxychloroquine are a treatment (cure?) for covid19....16:59 (https://youtu.be/rRgnQs6D1u8?t=1019)

that said, the economic damage now has a life of its own, and I expect it to continue/worsen
  • #1,044
  • Mar 19, 2020 7:27pm Mar 19, 2020 7:27pm
Quoting marcb
{quote} Hi Igrok, Do you think the market will bounce up from the current levels or will it keep to go down? If so to what level? Thank you Marc
the probability that the markets are set to revisit sub 2009 levels is increasing day by day... it's a long shot though and might take time... for the moment on the DJIA 18300 is a must... in my view, levels somewhere at around 18100 mark is the most attractive zone before some correction might occur... any rally have to be viewed as a selling opportunity... overall, going short should be preferred in case some substantial bounce is seen...
  • #1,045
  • Mar 20, 2020 1:13am Mar 20, 2020 1:13am
S&P also looks interesting.
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  • #1,046
  • Mar 20, 2020 1:41am Mar 20, 2020 1:41am
Good day Igor,

Wanted to ask you whats the view on BTC or any other currently circulating crypto. Is it going to be a shelter for the future at the current prices or was it just a rehearsal before a real recognized crypto will take effect and BTC with the rest is doomed to die in a very near future. I just never heard of Khazin mentioning anything about it.

Your opinion is greatly appreciated.
  • #1,047
  • Mar 20, 2020 4:02am Mar 20, 2020 4:02am
Quoting Argo
Oil has reached its target with initial reaction to the line. If it don't hold well perhaps $10 will be the next. Maybe the rest of the world will live an experience of Venezuelans where gasoline is free and hopefully we will stop at that case rest of the Venezuelan phenomena is not as pleasant. {image}
It won't be free, there will be always be taxes, while government will make more profit out of it.

But we wish

I'm loading lots of oil contract
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,048
  • Mar 20, 2020 5:15pm Mar 20, 2020 5:15pm
in financial markets, stock markets in particular, there are only two scenarios of taking money from traders and investors ... with possible variations, of course, but there are only two main ones ... the first scenario is a classic one... the market, starting from some maximum, drops quite sharply first, thus causing massive panic, margin calls, zeroing of investment and trading accounts, and then, having (also sharply) bounced up from a certain level, it starts to gain back its lost positions quite quickly ... investors who have slightly recovered, after collecting and consolidating both the remaining and having found additional funds, and being convinced that what happened was nothing more than the influence of a “black swan” accidentally flown into the markets, they again begin to actively buy something there in the hope of recovering the lost and plus something else to compensate for moral damage. .. at the peak of new evolved general optimism, but significantly lower than the previous market’s top, they are getting hit by the next, this time absolutely deadly wave of decline, squeezing investors’ pockets to dryness and discouraging most of them from ever participating in such a game again... very quickly new generations of traders and investors who have never had no such experience come to replace the “untimely drowned lemmings”... this plot can be called a “cat and mouse game”... such events were developed in the beginning of Great Depression ...
the second scenario is less intricate ... at some point, having reached its peak, the market, without any obvious reasons and without wasting time for some consolidation period, simply turns down and, with very small corrections along the way, almost continuously falls, strangling all investors in its embrace ... such markets’ behavior can be called a “boa strategy”... and the change of stages, counting from the beginning of “strangulation” through “swallowing” and to “digesting”, is almost imperceptible for the victims ... pretty much like a frog can be simmered... such a scenario had taken place starting from 1990 and up to 2009 year when the Japanese stock market robbed local investors of their investment funds...
it’s hard to say which strategy the global stock markets will choose this time ... in my opinion, the Japanese version seems more likely now ...
  • #1,049
  • Mar 20, 2020 5:44pm Mar 20, 2020 5:44pm
Quoting Igrok
in financial markets, stock markets in particular, there are only two scenarios of taking money from traders and investors ... with possible variations, of course, but there are only two main ones ... the first scenario is a classic one... the market, starting from some maximum, drops quite sharply first, thus causing massive panic, margin calls, zeroing of investment and trading accounts, and then, having (also sharply) bounced up from a certain level, it starts to gain back its lost positions quite quickly ... investors who have slightly recovered,...
I dont have much to add except for I believe the chances of deleverage in contrast to recession is much more likely than people think.

VIX broke all time high, /es broke 18's support, perhaps I'm being overally paranoid but if 21__-20__ on spx doesnt find support, this oh course is added with the virus shit, fed rates, gold price relation [REMINDER XAU IS NOT A FAIL-PROOF SAFE HAVEN], yield rates, dollar index, and the big one that will be comming very soon; Earnings reports and activity among commodities at this given point.

Alot of companies will be extremely effected with not just crude but most commodities at their given price and Chinese markets tanked heavily at quarterly reports when major Chinese indices saw a huge draw down awhile back as well.

While I dont think its 100% I do believe a chance of a massive deleverage is much higher than alot of people are aware and have planed for. Honestly makes me wonder what the correct market move is, I know this is posted on a fx forum so im assuming many people have been just pair trading cad/usd and while I mainly trade in options/futures market. Im still not entirely sure what the right move is, well I according to my own risk-levels. Im sure many peoples solution to this is to swing trade /vx lol

Anyways someone else got anything to add
rennstimp
  • #1,050
  • Mar 21, 2020 1:19am Mar 21, 2020 1:19am
It seems that what I've been talking about for almost a year has finally become obvious to someone else. Here is the first article to support my views on the stock market's future. https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-revisits-2008-lows-as-economy-looks-even-grimmer-51584752512?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
  • #1,051
  • Mar 21, 2020 4:30am Mar 21, 2020 4:30am
Quoting Igrok
It seems that what I've been talking about for almost a year has finally become obvious to someone else. Here is the first article to support my views on the stock market's future. https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-revisits-2008-lows-as-economy-looks-even-grimmer-51584752512?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Hi Igrok,
you mentioned - if I understood correctly - that if we get a really sharp one-time decline the diamond scenario is invalidated and therefore the need to go to 0 on stock markets as well. So... actually the current drop suggests that the stock markets will not end - we go to the MUST levels mentioned by you... and potentially start moving up again. Right? What's your technical long-term view based on recent moves? Can the stock market survive?

Thx,
Roman
  • #1,052
  • Mar 21, 2020 5:54am Mar 21, 2020 5:54am
Quoting ernesto
{quote} Hi Igrok, you mentioned - if I understood correctly - that if we get a really sharp one-time decline the diamond scenario is invalidated and therefore the need to go to 0 on stock markets as well. So... actually the current drop suggests that the stock markets will not end - we go to the MUST levels mentioned by you... and potentially start moving up again. Right? What's your technical long-term view based on recent moves? Can the stock market survive? Thx, Roman

I don't really think it will be wiped out completely... though at this point it looks increasingly likely that the markets will drop eventually at least to sub 2008-9 levels... that's what the initial meaning of my projection was... however, given some other circumstance there is a rising probability that the entire capitalistic world system will actually be reformed, remodeled and rebuild at some point...it seems that financial capital, which is based on increasing public consumption, is no longer capable of reproducing itself... Reaganomics model has exhausted it's potential and therefore might fall as the first victim of the incoming Great Depression 2.0 that's unfolding right before our eyes... it seems that the world in a few years from now will look quite different than it used to be... the world economy might never fully recover and come back to "business as usual" stage...
  • #1,053
  • Mar 21, 2020 7:00am Mar 21, 2020 7:00am
it seems on Monday the Dow will gap down big time... "Keep your arms and legs inside the carpet"...
  • #1,054
  • Mar 21, 2020 7:04am Mar 21, 2020 7:04am
apparently "too big to fail" policy comes back... there are rumors that US Government to bail out some levered private hedge funds...
  • #1,055
  • Mar 21, 2020 7:10am Mar 21, 2020 7:10am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} I don't really think it will be wiped out completely... though at this point it looks increasingly likely that the markets will drop eventually at least to sub 2008-9 levels... that's what the initial meaning of my projection was...
I project the bottom in DJI at ~$5k, back to the mid 90s era.
k
  • #1,056
  • Mar 21, 2020 7:28am Mar 21, 2020 7:28am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} I project the bottom in DJI at ~$5k, back to the mid 90s era. k
yep... here is the chart... I think we might expect the Dow hitting the line... currently it is at around 5400 and descending... it's gonna be a fourth touch though... thus making it a high probability to get penetrated at least...
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  • #1,057
  • Mar 21, 2020 7:48am Mar 21, 2020 7:48am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} yep... here is the chart... I think we might expect the Dow hitting the line... currently it is at around 5400 and descending... it's gonna be a fourth touch though... thus making it a high probability to get penetrated at least... {image}
I have a completely different method. But get the same number.
k
  • #1,058
  • Mar 21, 2020 7:54am Mar 21, 2020 7:54am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} I have a completely different method. But get the same number. k
at least you've got some presence of mind...
  • #1,059
  • Mar 21, 2020 12:38pm Mar 21, 2020 12:38pm
Quoting Igrok
it seems on Monday the Dow will gap down big time... "Keep your arms and legs inside the carpet"...
how can you predict this? Ufff - still need to learn a lot...
  • #1,060
  • Edited 2:44pm Mar 21, 2020 2:20pm | Edited 2:44pm
Quoting ernesto
{quote} how can you predict this? Ufff - still need to learn a lot...
"As if New York didn't have enough troubles with hundreds of new infections every hour, moments ago NYC Air Traffic Control declared a "ground stop" at all New York area airports including JFK, LGA and EWR, meaning all departures are now suspended indefinitely..."

though I actually posted my projection even before they decided to take this action... the right news always comes in the right time to justify the obvious...
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