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Price reaction to major S/R /TLs and entering on LTFs

  • #61
  • Mar 17, 2020 6:16pm Mar 17, 2020 6:16pm
Quoting mtharwat
{quote} Anyone trading nowadays should be extremely cautious or better take a holiday off trading. The USA banned flights from Europe, Italy is locked down, Germany will have 60-70 percent of the population infected, and so on. All stocks have nosedived. Anyway, I enetred with a very small amount..and it is end of week. H4 has shown a correction and some PA. I entered based on H1 (attached). Will monitor targets and not necessarily wait for a drop to where the stop loss is. {image}

USDCHF moved about 180 pips so far. I think it is a great move considering the hard times we are going through.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF H4.png Size: 44 KB
  • #62
  • Mar 17, 2020 6:23pm Mar 17, 2020 6:23pm
Quoting mtharwat
EURCAD ... Will watch it this week. Bouncing off Weekly Resistance after a strong bullish attempt to clear Resistance. Not enough daily and H4 PA to short. Still finding support at H4 previous gap. {image} {image}

EURCAD H4 has found support at the gap and looks like it is a pre-breakout formation.

To be confident in buying is to wait for a clear breakout and a retest. Then we can consider going long. Some traders would love to jump on the breakout but others want to wait for a retest.

I myslef would prefer the daily candles to give me a more PA or more candles to print in this area so the breakout has more significance. Anyway, we can observe the pair and adjust our lot sizes accordingly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD H4.png Size: 36 KB
  • #63
  • Mar 17, 2020 6:32pm Mar 17, 2020 6:32pm
Quoting mtharwat
GBPCAD Bounce off Daily Support. Clearing the H1 range may give a buying opportunity. {image} {image}
I went long after the H1 breakout.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2020-03-18 at 10.32.16 am.png Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD H1.png Size: 40 KB
  • #64
  • Mar 18, 2020 12:47am Mar 18, 2020 12:47am
Quoting DON-K
Also watching EURUSD for short continuation if next H1 candle closes bearish{image} {image}
Hi DON-K,
It was a great trade.
Are you still fully or partially in this trade? 300+ pips so far.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Daily.png Size: 35 KB
  • #65
  • Mar 18, 2020 12:56am Mar 18, 2020 12:56am
XAUEUR

Price reacted to a weekly support.

Watching H4/H2
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUEUR Weekly.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUEUR 2H.png Size: 41 KB
  • #66
  • Mar 18, 2020 2:40am Mar 18, 2020 2:40am
Quoting mtharwat
{quote} Hi DON-K, It was a great trade. Are you still fully or partially in this trade? 300+ pips so far. {image}
Yeah
Going out and joining the continuation.

Thanks
  • #67
  • Mar 18, 2020 3:02am Mar 18, 2020 3:02am
Long continuation on UsdChf at H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFH1.png Size: 57 KB
  • #68
  • Mar 18, 2020 7:10pm Mar 18, 2020 7:10pm
Quoting mtharwat
{quote} I went long after the H1 breakout. {image} {image}
Stop Loss hit..
The breakout was a false one.

The H4 candle that broke Resistance (marked with red arrow) did not go far enough. Besides, I did not wait for a retest.

Now we can wait for a retest for the breakout south and analyze the PA if it happens.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD H4.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD Daily.png Size: 38 KB
  • #69
  • Edited Mar 19, 2020 12:44am Mar 18, 2020 10:28pm | Edited Mar 19, 2020 12:44am
Quoting mtharwat
EURCAD ... Will watch it this week. Bouncing off Weekly Resistance after a strong bullish attempt to clear Resistance. Not enough daily and H4 PA to short. Still finding support at H4 previous gap. {image} {image}

Very strong breakout..

150 pips till weekly previous high.

I have not traded this one as I felt there are some minor resistances the breakout might face. I was extra cautious. Maybe a retest to jump on.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD H4.png Size: 35 KB
  • #70
  • Edited Mar 19, 2020 9:31pm Mar 18, 2020 10:34pm | Edited Mar 19, 2020 9:31pm
Quoting mtharwat
GBPNZD... Watching this week. I am mentioning this pair for the sake of showing price behaviour when there is no clear sign of the bias (at least for me). Here, we have a very strong weekly penetration to previous Weekly Resistance which was testing the water and then nosedived to below previous Resistance. I am neither buying nor selling until the daily candles show me what is next. H4 will not be enough to establish bias. Here we need the one lower time frame from the weekly (daily) to give us a clue not two lower timeframes. You may think the...

Strong breakout..
Waiting for retest , preferably from Daily. There is a strong candlestick pattern formation on Daily.

Editing: When I posted the daily chart and mentioned the morning star formation, I was looking at the last daily bullish candle and thought it was already printed (from the day previous) but it was just forming. At the end of the day, the candle tuned to a long Doji one. I should have been more cautious if it is a previous daily candle or a current one forming.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD H4.png Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD Daily.png Size: 46 KB
  • #71
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:38pm Mar 18, 2020 10:38pm
Are you a broker? How should I start trading
  • #72
  • Mar 19, 2020 3:17am Mar 19, 2020 3:17am
Quoting Zhangtiantia
Are you a broker? How should I start trading
Start from the basics.
Post #1 said it all.
Follow the thread and practice.
  • #73
  • Mar 19, 2020 9:18pm Mar 19, 2020 9:18pm
Quoting mtharwat
XAUEUR Price reacted to a weekly support. Watching H4/H2 {image} {image}
Yesterday, just before I drop my head and go to bed, I went long at XAUEUR.

Now I will explain what I was seeing and following:

Other than the crazy corona phobic situation we are all witnessing and the unpredictable and volatile markets we are witnessing, I found the following:
Me thinking against the trade:
1- Although we bounced off a weekly Support, but the level where I entered should be much lower and should 'ideally' wait for some PA structure near to the weekly support. I should wait for daily PA near this level.
2-Ugly daily candles (the last three or four at least)
3- Only weekly/H4 analysis

Me thinking fovouring the trade:
1-H4 chart showed a two-wave down (clearer in H2) penetrating previous H4/H2 S/R (false break)
2- a nice looking Bullish Divergence (Trix indi with small setting-Histo only divergence)
3- candlestick formations that I consider strong on H4 (Bullish Engulfing)and H2 (morning star) .

Anyway, I decided to enter long and thought to myself to move the stop loss to breakeven as soon as possible even if this causes me to exiting the trade prematurely.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUEUR H2.png Size: 87 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2020-03-20 at 1.17.25 pm.png Size: 28 KB
  • #74
  • Edited 5:13am Mar 20, 2020 1:18am | Edited 5:13am
Quoting mtharwat
{quote} Yesterday, just before I drop my head and go to bed, I went long at XAUEUR. Now I will explain what I was seeing and following: Other than the crazy corona phobic situation we are all witnessing and the unpredictable and volatile markets we are witnessing, I found the following: Me thinking against the trade: 1- Although we bounced off a weekly Support, but the level where I entered should be much lower and should 'ideally' wait for some PA structure near to the weekly support. I should wait for daily PA near this level. 2-Ugly daily candles...

Moved stop loss to breakeven. Price is now 140 pips away. It is not though a very good thing to do considering the volatility of gold pairs. But I feel safer this way due to overall market conditions.

Edit: Exited with about 320 pips in profit.
Of course, if you trade gold, you do not deal with it the same as trading a major pair. Adjust the percentage of your risk out of your capital. The volatility of gold can wipe your account in minutes.
H4 attached
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2020-03-20 at 9.08.02 pm.png Size: 22 KB
  • #75
  • Mar 20, 2020 1:44am Mar 20, 2020 1:44am
XAUUSD.

Bouncing from Daily support
H1 breakout
Waiting for a retest and then make a judgment on overall PA if it happens
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.png Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD H1.png Size: 49 KB
  • #76
  • Edited 10:58pm Mar 20, 2020 10:41pm | Edited 10:58pm
Quoting mtharwat
{quote} Strong breakout.. Waiting for retest , preferably from Daily. There is a strong candlestick pattern formation on Daily. Editing: When I posted the daily chart and mentioned the morning star formation, I was looking at the last daily bullish candle and thought it was already printed (from the day previous) but it was just forming. At the end of the day, the candle tuned to a long Doji one. I should have been more cautious if it is a previous daily candle or a current one forming. {image} {image}
Long Term it could go either way. Price came of the monthly areas and back down starting to form a long wick and boucing off the trendline. maybe a break to the bottom??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd1.png Size: 105 KB
  • #77
  • Mar 21, 2020 6:38am Mar 21, 2020 6:38am
Quoting cisco92111
{quote} Long Term it could go either way. Price came of the monthly areas and back down starting to form a long wick and bouncing off the trendline. maybe a break to the bottom?? {image}
I agree that the long term could be either way.

The only thing that is making me think of the possibility of bullishness is this very long weekly/monthly wick trying to break monthly Resistance.

But on the other hand, the price is now below the resistance and if it breaks the sloping up trend line and retests, then bearish scenario will be more profound.
The last five daily candles are very volatile. H4 chart for last week is quite messy and formed a diamond pattern which is suggesting a near change in price behavior.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD Daily.png Size: 57 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD H4.png Size: 59 KB
  • #78
  • Mar 22, 2020 8:56pm Mar 22, 2020 8:56pm
GBPCAD

Sharing mixed views...No Bias

Broke a Daily/weekly Support. However, it is near to the low of a historic monthly wick.

The retest to previous S/R is clear in H2/H4 but is not present enough in the Daily chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD Monthly.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD Daily.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD H2.png Size: 49 KB
  • #79
  • Edited 7:43pm Mar 23, 2020 3:50am | Edited 7:43pm
Quoting mtharwat
{quote} Moved stop loss to breakeven. Price is now 140 pips away. It is not though a very good thing to do considering the volatility of gold pairs. But I feel safer this way due to overall market conditions. Edit: Exited with about 320 pips in profit. Of course, if you trade gold, you do not deal with it the same as trading a major pair. Adjust the percentage of your risk out of your capital. The volatility of gold can wipe your account in minutes. H4 attached {image}
I renetered again and went long targetting the top of H1 range

Edit: Target profit hit.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUEUR 5M.png Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2020-03-23 at 7.47.10 pm.png Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2020-03-24 at 11.41.06 am.png Size: 33 KB
  • #80
  • Mar 23, 2020 4:05am Mar 23, 2020 4:05am
GBPJPY

Bounced off Weekly support
Waiting for H2/H4 and preferable daily PA/candle formations, etc..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY Weekly.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY H2.png Size: 37 KB
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