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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #1,001
  • Mar 16, 2020 5:32pm Mar 16, 2020 5:32pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Hopefully, by the end of the week it will close above ~20900 and be the second failed test of support on the weekly chart....
18300 is a must...
  • #1,002
  • Mar 16, 2020 5:50pm Mar 16, 2020 5:50pm
people have to understand that this is not the virus situation that is effectively killing the world economy.. at this point it doesn't even really matter whether or not the virus exists or ever existed in nature... in fact, global economy is getting slaughtered by the imposed quarantine measures... that's it... as simple as that... the tighter the quarantines become all over the places - the worse overall economy will be... and there is absolutely no chance that the situation can somehow be improved by taking some sort of purely financial and/or economic measures... the only way to turn the situation around is to announce the development of an effective vaccine... and nothing else whatsoever... until then the markets are doomed to declining... it's a classic zugzwang situation... every next step taken automatically and inevitably leads to another problem in the economy and finance... though the markets are just indicative for its general condition...
  • #1,003
  • Mar 16, 2020 8:33pm Mar 16, 2020 8:33pm
COVID 19 will die out as winter ends. When cases begin to decline the market will rebound. The biggest bargain buying opportunity is upon us.
Freedom is not free
  • #1,004
  • Mar 16, 2020 10:18pm Mar 16, 2020 10:18pm
Just another opinion....
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  • #1,005
  • Mar 16, 2020 10:58pm Mar 16, 2020 10:58pm
Quoting Igrok
people have to understand that this is not the virus situation that is effectively killing the world economy.. at this point it doesn't even really matter whether or not the virus exists or ever existed in nature... in fact, global economy is getting slaughtered by the imposed quarantine measures... that's it... as simple as that... the tighter the quarantines become all over the places - the worse overall economy will be... and there is absolutely no chance that the situation can somehow be improved by taking some sort of purely financial and/or...
I think fiscal stimulus is powerful and effective enough to curb recession risks because US have quite healthy consumer (low debt, high consumer confidence, low interest rates to borrow and spend). As demand shock can be reversed, supply side will also recover quickly. It's broken consumer which causes protracted recessions.
  • #1,006
  • Mar 16, 2020 11:49pm Mar 16, 2020 11:49pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Just another opinion.... {image}
18300 is a must...
  • #1,007
  • Edited 12:34am Mar 17, 2020 12:20am | Edited 12:34am
Quoting Abe16
COVID 19 will die out as winter ends. When cases begin to decline the market will rebound. The biggest bargain buying opportunity is upon us.
perhaps it's not an economic problem (though it actually is)... but it's no longer even a public health problem... it's an administrative issue which has a huge momentum and can't be turned around in an instant... it's also a sentiment problem because in the battle between fear and greed fear always wins eventually... quarantines will continue building up and inflicting harm to the economy long after it becomes clear that no one was getting infected for a long while... take a look at China... they are now reporting (most likely lying) that people almost stopped getting infected or dying of this illness and they were successful in containing the virus but meanwhile still continue tightening their quarantines every day... not to mention that Angela Merkel stated a few days back that at least 70% of the German population will get infected before the pandemic ends... and among the world politicians she is the one who always means what she says... in fact at this very moment the situation is completely out of control and will stay this way indefinitely till the vaccine is developed...
  • #1,008
  • Edited 12:54am Mar 17, 2020 12:43am | Edited 12:54am
Quoting bottomhigh
{quote} I think fiscal stimulus is powerful and effective enough to curb recession risks because US have quite healthy consumer (low debt, high consumer confidence, low interest rates to borrow and spend). As demand shock can be reversed, supply side will also recover quickly. It's broken consumer which causes protracted recessions.
the economy cannot be stimulated by fiscal measures also being simultaneously suppressed by the administrative ones... that's just ridiculous...

P.S. The Trump administration released new guidelines on Monday to slow the spread of the coronavirus, including closing schools and avoiding groups of more than 10 people, discretionary travel, bars, restaurants and food courts.

does it look like an effective stimulus idea for the economy to anyone?
  • #1,009
  • Mar 17, 2020 5:19am Mar 17, 2020 5:19am
If an already approved pharmaceutical is found to prevent covid-19 that would be a game-changer. The malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, is one such pharmaceutical currently under investigation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroxychloroquine

Hydroxychloroquine has shown to have antiviral activity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).
But can it reduce the viral load from respiratory specimen in patients with mild COVID-19. This study is investigating that question https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/study/NCT04307693


"have antiviral activity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2"
gives the impression these already approved drugs may prevent the contraction of covid-19
  • #1,010
  • Mar 17, 2020 9:10am Mar 17, 2020 9:10am
not to be a fear monger...however with borders closed etc...have any one u thought of the next step down? riots? wars? hmmm, some countries took the opportunities to double slam via WTI...have you guys thought it might be an economic attack on USA itself?
  • #1,011
  • Mar 17, 2020 9:24am Mar 17, 2020 9:24am
Quoting giggsy
not to be a fear monger...however with borders closed etc...have any one u thought of the next step down? riots? wars? hmmm, some countries took the opportunities to double slam via WTI...have you guys thought it might be an economic attack on USA itself?
for as long as people are fed and entertained the is no reason for rioting... the govs have to take care of it... other than that everything is possible...
  • #1,012
  • Mar 17, 2020 9:33am Mar 17, 2020 9:33am
yes its all about money and hunger right....if locked down, no jobs no money...will the govt freeze the mortg forever? will the food supply be infinity like usual? many factors here now...and usually lead to riots and wars...if one country is sinister enough...

about the opec meeting..don't you all think its strange enough for both countries made that decision, at this current virus issue now?
  • #1,013
  • Mar 17, 2020 1:23pm Mar 17, 2020 1:23pm
possible... GBP/JPY...
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  • #1,014
  • Mar 17, 2020 1:23pm Mar 17, 2020 1:23pm
Quoting bottomhigh
{quote} I think fiscal stimulus is powerful and effective enough to curb recession risks because US have quite healthy consumer (low debt, high consumer confidence, low interest rates to borrow and spend). As demand shock can be reversed, supply side will also recover quickly. It's broken consumer which causes protracted recessions.
As a matter of fact, jobs are the main driver.
  • #1,015
  • Edited 2:21pm Mar 17, 2020 1:35pm | Edited 2:21pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} perhaps it's not an economic problem (though it actually is)... but it's no longer even a public health problem... it's an administrative issue which has a huge momentum and can't be turned around in an instant... it's also a sentiment problem because in the battle between fear and greed fear always wins eventually... quarantines will continue building up and inflicting harm to the economy long after it becomes clear that no one was getting infected for a long while... take a look at China... they are now reporting (most likely lying) that...
Most-likely they are lying indeed.

I ran a little regression, with WHO official numbers and utilized an exponential factor of 2.7x as per Italy. If the US stays in this course, we shall have 879013 cases and 17303 deaths by April 7th. However, when confinement takes place, the factor drops to 1.0, thus becoming a linear regression equation and it accommodates much better.

So I guess, to Igor's point, I think we have to choose the lesser evil. To me, at least for now, the lesser evil seems to be avoiding a catastrophe in the health system if it's not already too late. If it's already not too late.

I kinda like the part about panic in this article: https://www.fast.ai/2020/03/09/coronavirus/?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_74

As a side note, widespread rebellions and escapes happened in Brazil yesterday as visitors were prohibited to enter the prisons due to Covid-19. There’s gang related and political involvement in those rebellions.

Anything is possible.
  • #1,016
  • Mar 17, 2020 7:37pm Mar 17, 2020 7:37pm
Quoting Abe16
COVID 19 will die out as winter ends. When cases begin to decline the market will rebound. The biggest bargain buying opportunity is upon us.
It is over 80 every day in Florida right now. But...cases still piling up. May be summer will not work at this particular virus.
  • #1,017
  • Mar 18, 2020 4:28am Mar 18, 2020 4:28am
Quoting mic6399
{quote} It is over 80 every day in Florida right now. But...cases still piling up. May be summer will not work at this particular virus.
Exactly.
The fact is that nobody knows much about this virus.

We will have, already are having, a complete collapse of the economy. This will endure for months.

It’s going to be a butterfly effect upon us. The small/medium business owners will suffer to make months end just to begin with. Then, utilities will have to make concessions and so and so forth... A true butterfly effect.

We will live under socialism, a forced one, just to survive. Everybody will have to make concessions. Period.

Those who don’t see it yet, need a wake up call.

It’s not even about the financial markets anymore.

Have a look into this and you will get a better glimpse:

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

At the end of the day all I can say is that the Chinese won.

Now we have two options: sacrifice the elderly (it seems) and not collapse the entire economy, or not sacrifice the elderly and collapse the economy.

I don’t even know if we can even choose anymore.

I am sorry for the reality check but there’s no escape from it. I am truly afraid and so should you be. Unfortunately.
  • #1,018
  • Mar 18, 2020 5:20am Mar 18, 2020 5:20am
Quoting jupiter_peak
{quote} Have a look into this and you will get a better glimpse: https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696
if that actually does play out millions of hungry furloughed/ unemployed people will become desperate....and who will they blame, Trump I suspect; expect extensive civil unrest

on a brighter note,

A team of infectious disease experts at the University of Queensland in Brisbane say they have seen two existing medications manage to wipe out COVID-19 infections.

Chloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, and HIV-suppressing combination lopinavir/ritonavir have both reportedly shown promising results in human tests and made the virus 'disappear' in infected patients.

link (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8115879/COVID-19-Australian-researchers-CURE-coronavirus.html)
  • #1,019
  • Mar 18, 2020 6:17am Mar 18, 2020 6:17am
This Keynesian model is dangerous. Now that central banks know they can use a short term fix for a long term problem using Quantitative easing means they kick the can down the road and we are left with privatized profits and socialized loses. The people pay the price with bail outs/ins. It's so convoluted your average person can't understand it or doesn't even want to, so they get away with it.

The mantra is borrow up to your eyes balls in debt and spend like crazy, cheap money and no punishments for failing because reserve banks will be begging and throwing money at corporations to stay open. This is what we have come to. So why not just do universal basic income instead, as much as it's a stupid idea, that is what they are effectively doing right now with QE. The velocity of money dries up and companies are not managed to sustain any form of protruded down turn before they blow up because of how highly strung to debt they are. So they artificially create fake liquidity by buying up assets in attempt to keep the machine turning.
  • #1,020
  • Mar 18, 2020 9:20am Mar 18, 2020 9:20am
Quoting RockDove
This Keynesian model is dangerous. Now that central banks know they can use a short term fix for a long term problem using Quantitative easing means they kick the can down the road and we are left with privatized profits and socialized loses. The people pay the price with bail outs/ins. It's so convoluted your average person can't understand it or doesn't even want to, so they get away with it. The mantra is borrow up to your eyes balls in debt and spend like crazy, cheap money and no punishments for failing because reserve banks will be begging...
The safest position to be in during an economic crisis is to be neither a borrower nor a lender. I find it ironic that at the first sign of crisis, the first and only thing that central banks do is encourage further debt. When the only tools in your toolbox are hammers, every problem looks like a nail.

Keep in mind that the amount of actual physical wealth at the end of a financial crisis is the same as before the crisis, but the ownership may change. A lot of people don't realize that the 1929 crash made as many millionaires as it bankrupted.
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
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