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  • #101
  • Edited 1:33am Mar 18, 2020 1:21am | Edited 1:33am
Shouldve been deeper in my spx puts oh well
rennstimp
  • #102
  • Mar 18, 2020 1:39am Mar 18, 2020 1:39am
SL on natgas filled rough market just holding puts on spx and nq and taking it slow today
rennstimp
  • #103
  • Edited 10:07am Mar 18, 2020 3:08am | Edited 10:07am
Back in natural gas because I like natural orange juice

this time smaller sizing though this market is loony

edit; fuck orange juice
rennstimp
  • #104
  • Mar 18, 2020 3:29am Mar 18, 2020 3:29am
Quoting renNstimpy
Back in natural gas because I like natural orange juice this time smaller sizing though this market is loony
Still holding NG added some gold on the side.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #105
  • Mar 18, 2020 4:51am Mar 18, 2020 4:51am
this shit band is driving me nuts
rennstimp
  • #106
  • Mar 18, 2020 9:24am Mar 18, 2020 9:24am
Break that 2400 and spx skydiving
rennstimp
  • #107
  • Mar 18, 2020 9:29am Mar 18, 2020 9:29am
Quoting renNstimpy
Break that 2400 and spx skydiving
I’m with you, let’s just get it over with. We shouldn’t keep bouncing off the lows, I think we are setting up for a move lower.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #108
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:07am Mar 18, 2020 10:07am
Quoting EF5
{quote} I’m with you, let’s just get it over with. We shouldn’t keep bouncing off the lows, I think we are setting up for a move lower.
So whats the bottom
rennstimp
  • #109
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:10am Mar 18, 2020 10:10am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} So whats the bottom
Could be a support at where it opened especially with circuit breaker, but idk after 2400 breaks seems like risk-reward is good
rennstimp
  • #110
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:20am Mar 18, 2020 10:20am
I think technical analysis is out the window for now guys
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #111
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:25am Mar 18, 2020 10:25am
this band shit is so fucking lame, i know why they have them there and i understand.

but after eventual recession [however long it will take]

etfs should be promoted for use against volatile market movements, cause this is just lame. Imagine if they did the same thing if any indicies move up X% daily.
rennstimp
  • #112
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:33am Mar 18, 2020 10:33am
for the one person that thought about riding the circuit band, be careful with riding the pig id guess if you have bad internet you'll just end up taxing your position but thats just me gl
rennstimp
  • #113
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:51am Mar 18, 2020 10:51am
Fucked up day beside a risky gold trade
Losing trade on CL (further down on better inventory numbers) and NG further down.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #114
  • Mar 18, 2020 12:07pm Mar 18, 2020 12:07pm
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} So whats the bottom
2,100 is up next.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #115
  • Mar 18, 2020 12:11pm Mar 18, 2020 12:11pm
Bond yields are up again today in spite of it being a risk off environment. Gold is down for this exact reason...

The reason this is happening is the market doesn’t think central banks are monetizing the debt well enough. If they bought enough bonds yields would not be rising. This is worrisome, a lot of bad things can happen if yields continue to rise.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #116
  • Mar 18, 2020 12:28pm Mar 18, 2020 12:28pm
Quoting EF5
Bond yields are up again today in spite of it being a risk off environment. Gold is down for this exact reason... The reason this is happening is the market doesn’t think central banks are monetizing the debt well enough. If they bought enough bonds yields would not be rising. This is worrisome, a lot of bad things can happen if yields continue to rise.
Vix all time high holy shit with fed rates are we actually going into dustbowls
rennstimp
  • #117
  • Mar 18, 2020 1:32pm Mar 18, 2020 1:32pm
Quoting EF5
Bond yields are up again today in spite of it being a risk off environment. Gold is down for this exact reason... The reason this is happening is the market doesn’t think central banks are monetizing the debt well enough. If they bought enough bonds yields would not be rising. This is worrisome, a lot of bad things can happen if yields continue to rise.
Whats your rough target if you dont mind me asking [roughly]
rennstimp
  • #118
  • Mar 18, 2020 2:11pm Mar 18, 2020 2:11pm
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} Whats your rough target if you dont mind me asking [roughly]
2,100 seems appropriate from a historical standpoint. However, it’s all happening too fast. You don’t just plunge from all time highs to the bear market low in a month. This makes me think we might get a bear market rally there instead. After the rally we probably retest the lows and if they don’t hold we could be talking about 1,600.

1,600 would be a larger than normal drawdown for a bear market and anything below that we might be talking about a depression. There is some talk about depression now unfortunately. My recession odds are 90%, depression maybe 5%.

Here are two ways a depression could play out.

1. Bankruptcies in the oil sector, transports, hospitality > insolvency in banks > credit seizes up... Roughly the same story as 2008, but this time we fail. I’m not calling that, I think we’d succeed but it’s possible there’s a bad outcome.

2. Eurozone countries take on a lot of new debt > bond investors stop buying it > countries can’t pay for it themselves and ECB can’t or won’t buy enough > countries declare bankruptcy > countries exit Eurozone > Eurozone collapses > global markets collapse

All in all, I’m guessing we get a near term rally then a light version of scenario 1 plays out and we come back down to 2,100 or possibly 1,600 later this year. Meanwhile unemployment rises, and the typically recessionary effects play out. If scenario 1 or 2 or both play out in full all bets are off. I don’t want to delve further into that right now because it’s getting too grim and probably won’t happen.

The above is all low confidence, we could bottom today for all I know. I never expected this sharp of sell-off. I’m playing it by ear for now.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #119
  • Edited Mar 19, 2020 12:18am Mar 18, 2020 2:33pm | Edited Mar 19, 2020 12:18am
Quoting EF5
{quote} 2,100 seems appropriate from a historical standpoint. However, it’s all happening too fast. You don’t just plunge from all time highs to the bear market low in a month. This makes me think we might get a bear market rally there instead. After the rally we probably retest the lows and if they don’t hold we could be talking about 1,600. 1,600 would be a larger than normal drawdown for a bear market and anything below that we might be talking about a depression. There is some talk about depression now unfortunately. My recession odds are 90%,...
Insanely well detailed post, congrats on the gains too!

Personally not holding overnight, well futures anyways even though my gut says i should hold a smaller order im not sure, just really wasnt liking the look of that last rally. So closed it.

But agreed insanely crazy day, exciting, fun and very fast. I do think this market had it coming though its been far too long since a proper move in price but everyone knows this.

Anyways have a nice night grats again!
rennstimp
  • #120
  • Mar 19, 2020 6:39am Mar 19, 2020 6:39am
spx break 5m
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rennstimp
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