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  • #81
  • Edited 5:08pm Mar 16, 2020 3:33pm | Edited 5:08pm
Quoting EF5
When SPX broke 2,400 I was surprised to see we had an orderly sell-off down to 2,380ish. It used to be when major support like that broke you'd quickly cascade lower but that hasn't happened at all during this sell off. Something is a little off here. Separately, something's also off about the bond market. The 10y should be going up when equities go down, but it peaked back on March 9th: {image}
Yeah, super bizarre. Thought we might be testing new lows.

In hindsight I absolutely shouldve exited portion of that position 1 minute to nyse close, looking at the trades now it costed me way more than I excepted. Strange that we arent seeing more movement, it might be because of potential circuit breaker or something not sure, really weird though.
rennstimp
  • #82
  • Mar 16, 2020 3:35pm Mar 16, 2020 3:35pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Don't beat yourself up at these levels you shouldn't take that much risk. I assume you made some nice cash! Give yourself some rest and look for the next opportunity.
Yeah its been very swingy in markets, if I had to be completely honest with myself I usually dont trade futures in that sizing but with state of market and ever since I missed a few vix calls a few months ago. Been looking for larger action that isnt fx trading.

[i hate fx trading with a passion]
rennstimp
  • #83
  • Mar 16, 2020 4:28pm Mar 16, 2020 4:28pm
I think there's a 50/50 chance the NYSE is closed tomorrow. You know there must be high-level discussions going on about that contingency...
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #84
  • Mar 16, 2020 5:06pm Mar 16, 2020 5:06pm
Quoting EF5
I think there's a 50/50 chance the NYSE is closed tomorrow. You know there must be high-level discussions going on about that contingency...
I could absolutely see that, currently in a few orders but had to close futures overnight. If I wasnt up for so long I would be in something active, alot of opportunities right now

But in mean time currently just eating and then going to sleep
rennstimp
  • #85
  • Mar 17, 2020 11:18am Mar 17, 2020 11:18am
YM 6-20 @ resistance level
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #86
  • Mar 17, 2020 1:05pm Mar 17, 2020 1:05pm
Quoting EF5
I think there's a 50/50 chance the NYSE is closed tomorrow. You know there must be high-level discussions going on about that contingency...
Mnuchin said today they won't close the markets. He said a shorter trading day is a possibility, but they're working hard to keep the markets open so people can use their 401k savings and whatnot.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #87
  • Mar 17, 2020 1:47pm Mar 17, 2020 1:47pm
If rally on SPX fails on 25xx think we are ending +2% on spx or around there, not sure. Odd that we saw rally after 2400 break, hard to say if new support will form as strongly if we see big decline considering how much the fed is trying to maintain indices at the moment.
rennstimp
  • #88
  • Mar 17, 2020 1:49pm Mar 17, 2020 1:49pm
If new 24xx support breaks on spx think we could see new lows by days end.

Not as confident as I was a few days ago so minding my sizing.
rennstimp
  • #89
  • Mar 17, 2020 1:52pm Mar 17, 2020 1:52pm
5m SPX
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rennstimp
  • #90
  • Mar 17, 2020 1:53pm Mar 17, 2020 1:53pm
Testing new 24xx support

1m spx
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rennstimp
  • #91
  • Mar 17, 2020 1:57pm Mar 17, 2020 1:57pm
SPX rally doesn't seem to be working thus far
rennstimp
  • #92
  • Edited 6:24pm Mar 17, 2020 2:02pm | Edited 6:24pm
Ugh didnt follow plan, happens.

Knew we were seeing abit more red, but didnt like look of 1m chart, need to stop trading and changing candles

Gains are still gains, but need to have better self control.
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rennstimp
  • #93
  • Mar 17, 2020 2:07pm Mar 17, 2020 2:07pm
Quoting renNstimpy
Ugh didnt follow plan. Knew we were seeing abit more red, but didnt like look of 1m chart, need to stop trading and changing candles Gains are still gains, but need to have better self control. {image} {image}
You'll get there champ! If you don't like the chart pls don't trade
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #94
  • Mar 17, 2020 2:14pm Mar 17, 2020 2:14pm
trying a breakout play on NG 4M and 1M chart
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #95
  • Mar 17, 2020 2:44pm Mar 17, 2020 2:44pm
This equities rally feels anemic. I know 4-5% is usually a really good day, but after dropping 12% yesterday it feels like we should have been up more than this if a bottom were being put in.

I will say the government has taken some big steps in the right direction so I’m fundamentally less bearish.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #96
  • Edited 6:27pm Mar 17, 2020 3:14pm | Edited 6:27pm
Quoting EF5
This equities rally feels anemic. I know 4-5% is usually a really good day, but after dropping 12% yesterday it feels like we should have been up more than this if a bottom were being put in. I will say the government has taken some big steps in the right direction so I’m fundamentally less bearish.
Agreed.

Honestly these swings have been crazy, looking back at 5m and 15m candles for today and just glad I was asleep for alot of it cause I know I wouldve fell for some of these bear traps on es and nq

Some of my puts tanked that ive been in for awhile but had a really good day yesterday, so I can justify abit of red on orders that were quite risky when I placed them.

I follow cl and ng from time to time, but unsure how to approach it if im bearish on spx/nq. With so many indicies tanking so much, in the event of spx/nq downswing I would really not be entirely sure how commodities would react [implying they already havent reacted]

I know the obvious answer is just to active trade which has been my approach, and I suppose sitting on liquid wouldnt be a bad idea. But looking to diversify abit into some new markets slowly at the moment.

Regardless still extremely happy from gains on short a few days ago
rennstimp
  • #97
  • Mar 17, 2020 7:10pm Mar 17, 2020 7:10pm
Quoting renNstimpy
I follow cl and ng from time to time, but unsure how to approach it if im bearish on spx/nq. With so many indicies tanking so much, in the event of spx/nq downswing I would really not be entirely sure how commodities would react [implying they already havent reacted]
That's tough. CL usually follows ES, but after the oil crash I have no idea what to expect from CL. Its too risky and I don't know enough to make any CL trades right now. NG seems to just do it's own thing regardless.

Quoting renNstimpy
Regardless still extremely happy from gains on short a few days ago
Glad to hear you've been doing well.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #98
  • Mar 17, 2020 7:17pm Mar 17, 2020 7:17pm
ES back at 2,400 support. We'll see if it can hold yet again. The 2,100 area might be in play after this. There's a lot of support there so I'd be surprise if its breached on this wave down.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #99
  • Edited Mar 18, 2020 2:47pm Mar 17, 2020 10:39pm | Edited Mar 18, 2020 2:47pm
Quoting EF5
ES back at 2,400 support. We'll see if it can hold yet again. The 2,100 area might be in play after this. There's a lot of support there so I'd be surprise if its breached on this wave down.
On your natgas comment, yeah been doing some research on natgas

I knew it never followed wti closely but woah holy shit what the fuck does it follow at all?

Really bizarre moving commodity, tried comparing to energy sector and still no perfect fit

40% of electricity still runs from natgas though

I remember saying shit like "yeah energy spread got saved by nat again" and used to think it was just the volume which it might be. But not sure its really bizarre the more research I do on it cause there is absolutely a correlation but trades just very oddly compared to other commodities into indices.

There isnt much else to add just looking at candle graphs of natgas in contrast to wti/spx/nq/dow even in contrast to NEE and other energy equity there are just really bizarre moments, it might be because they release the natgas inventories on different days but some days just fucking are really weird.
rennstimp
  • #100
  • Mar 18, 2020 12:32am Mar 18, 2020 12:32am
natgas at lows, and rallied last circuit breaker. Doesnt seem too bad, hmmm

1h candles
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rennstimp
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