S&P500 trading

Yes but what else have we excluding the wise ones ?

All I have is sponge TA

Virus is now 12 miles from my town

We have foresight sponge, the candles get printed after the psychology has made the decision, remember that... psychology first, candles second.

You Uk based sponge??

What about volume ?

Aye Scotland UK

News just out, a new 10 min tesing kit has been developed

China turning a corner on virus

Just a snippet of good news is all it will take

Critical levels, Dow 21700, S&P 2519, Naz 7469 ....these are they imo

7% of people who catch it need ICU care, we have 4000 icu beds in the whole of the U.K. and they run at 80% capacity in normal circumstances.... bj has done naff all to stop it, as has most of Europe, usa’s measures are to little to late as it’ll still be all over the place.

No cure / vaccine for 12 months ... Trump will very likely be dead from it by the end of the weak.... he met an infected person recently & imo didn’t look fucking well I. That press conference.

airlines have layed off staff, cut down flights, people arnt spending money, and will soon not be going to work, apples sales will be down, Amazon’s profits will be down the week after, 40% of amazons sales clme from China, people will stop buying from China.

all sporting events are being cancelled, football clubs still have to pay their players but no game revenue, London loses how much from not running events? Glastonbury how much? Cornwall how much? Scotland?

closing of schools, how much does this cost the government?

how many factories close?

Companies have to pay sick pay from the moment people are off, how many companies can afford that ?

that rise, irrelevant of what your chart is saying was a blowout to be sold into.

and then...... let’s take a look at the bond market and open up another can of worms.

Do you really, honestly think this market is going to keep going up with all this going on ?

£200 says trumps dead within 2 weeks. As a complete outsider, fancy that bet?

Don't misunderstand me, I'm not saying the market is going up and I get all your saying, I do get it, all your arguments stack up but since when did the markets become logical?

In my experience the markets will do what ever they want and defy logic, anyone trying to sell yesterdays low for instance will be seriously under water at the moment.

Yes it's possible we will see a huge drop but for now my TA still says the downside could be limited, of course I could be wrong and my TA gets kicked out the window, I can live with that.

One line of thought is the big boys need to push it up in order to off load, the 24500 area would then be critical, this might come by way of a 4th leg and then we fall or maybe Trump will pop his clogs and we just tank into oblivion who knows.

Good luck

short term for sure, I agree ofc, nothing ever goes straight down, we see swings both up and down. overall trend is down tho, times have changed, 600 points down so far this weekend.

Mermers of China blaming America for the virus, virus just about to grip U.K. & states, big company data also out soon.

849 down on weekend trading, so far.

biggest % drop in all of history on route this week.

Edit:

1020 points down weekend trading.

4.4% so far.

monday Asian trading halt looking likely again.

Where do you get this data?

https://www.ig.com/en/weekend-trading

Oh right, I have a live Ig.au account and was using it a it had great leverage on some cash indices...till last week anyway. I see the standard has the weekend and forgot they brought that in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51893445

Well as much as I’m not a fan of the bloke, I also don’t wish harm on him..... still 13 days for our bet to play out tho Sponge lol !

Thought I’d give a little more substance regarding my bear stance, despite all that the fed and monitory policies may do....

So.... as we all know the Western world has built up a debt bubble over past ~50yrs. It's deflating as we speak, just as it tried to do in 2008, 2001, 1997, 1994, 1987, 1981 & 1974. Each time, there was enuf balance sheet to reinflate the system by pumping more debt into it...

In other words assets still existed that hadn't yet been encumbered by debt (directly or indirectly)--meaning the countries were SOLVENT. That's why their fiat currencies had value--assets were still available lenders didn't yet have a claim upon (ie, assets not yet mortgaged).

When debt expands, liquidity grows--& mostly it just pushes up financial asset prices. Reverse is also true. Debt has grown for >50 CONSECUTIVE years but also mixed by deleveraging periods when the total debt outstanding actually shrinks ( 2008 & now ). mainstream economists call for central banks & govts to offset that credit reduction by creating new debt (monetary & fiscal stimulus) to fill the hole & what they're doing is back-filling for shrinking debt by creating new public sector debt !!!!!

ln layman terms: where as before it propped & pumped up the market ..... now it back fills the hole that’s already grown, meanwhile value is still shrinking within the market, the worlds negative GDP will be growing & those with half decent head are & will continue to be selling !!

Entire industries have done that (housing going into 2008, shale producers going into 2020 etc) & in these debt deflations..the magnitude of the capital destruction that was building is revealed (it just wasn't obvious because new debt injections were able to paper over it). Why wasn't it evident as it was building? interest rates are mispriced artificially low.

As we are seeing now this is becoming unwound & the size of the black hole is appearing & the effect the fed are having have & already are disappearing.

the disruption cv is causing it could lead to the end of the credit system as we know it, with almost all industries unable to service their debt & no one knows how long this will continue for or what the world would look like afterwards. Hence the running for the exit.

The cost of re-inflating the system once again, (let’s also bare in mind the USA stock market is worth $44T) currently, a lot more than $10 trillion of stimulus, given its being devalued & imho even if it works (which it won’t) the cost will only be bigger next time.

& then let’s add in the psychological driver which is causing the mass sell off, a pandemic sweeping the globe... fed & montitory policy is not able to protect businesses from going under, supply chains from being broken, People’s spending power from becoming deflated & fear from grippling the market.... it’s akin to stimulating an empty hole.

ive said it from the very top, their powers won’t work this time, twice they have used 2 methods of stimulation & twice it’s been sold into.... how long until it has a negative effect, as no one wants to be left holding when they could have sold at 22k,21k,18k,15k etc

fed already said their abilities are LIMITED ... as I was saying no shit

They would actually be in a far better position if they did nothing at all... faith will be lost in their abilities if they continue to try & it turns into having a negative effect & they will have 0 Ammo left to boost it back up after the inevitable has ensued.

& these guys are meant to be professionals....
Ya catch me drift ?

In shorter terms.

the stimulus goes into a black hole instead of a healthy market.... had they not have used stimulus to pump the economy to such dazzling heights they might have had half a fighting chance.

the fed / economy are fooked... clever money will twig (is no doubt it already is hence the mass selling even as stimulus happens) dumb / naive investors will continue to Try catch the bottom not realising it’s going sub 10000

And Delta1 will buy the very top.

p.s. Shit getting pretty real here in U.K., I hear it’s very similar in the states.

Amazon total assets worth $ 224b

I wonder at what point this market starts looking cheap

Musing.

A good idea ?


https://files.constantcontact.com/6c...86725d2b97.pdf

Sounds to me like they’re long Sponge & have just realised the extent of this situation.

only a month late but hey ho.

finance has always been mercenary!

It would

1. Be unbelievably damaging to close it for an indefinite period if you were ever expecting it to open again.

2. the drop would be twice as bad on open, there would be bankruptcy between now and then & the damage caused would completely ruin capatilisum.

I’d sacrifice my positions to see it happen.

bring it on !!

Sponge.

in all seriousness, just because they weren’t savvy enough to see a top forming and impending drop doesn’t mean “the market should have a nice holiday”...

Most financiers couldn’t give naff all shit about anything but themselves, if this situation was in another country, happening to other people, far removed from their day to day lives but could afford to invest and profit from it, Mark my words, they would show NO MERCY and they’d be bragging about it over their 5 course dinner.

have you noticed that of all the companies to put out downgrades and take barish stance recently GS has been one of the only ?

"Mark my words, they would show NO MERCY and they’d be bragging about it over their 5 course dinner". ....As would we ?

How do you trade ? fundies , TA ?

Catempire, I don't see it as a nice holiday, this virus has the potential to scupper the world of finance, a halt on selling could save the day in order to avoid armaggedon on the markets. I recall shorting being banned in the past but can't remember when but it led to a huge bull market as you know.

As usual the MEDIA have a captive audience