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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #961
  • Mar 14, 2020 5:42am Mar 14, 2020 5:42am
PS weekend wallstreet not looking to strong ...
  • #962
  • Mar 14, 2020 6:29am Mar 14, 2020 6:29am
Quoting Edd111111
{quote} Hi Igor, I respectfully disagree, the world markets are still about money and emotion which is measured through psychology (not so much of an effective tool to gauge with in this instance). I believe in this thread you have alluded to the point "what has changed since 2008 /2009" ? and i think that is a pertinent question. The pace at which the crash is happening is about fear of a virus however the crash (depth) itself was largely inevitable. One thing that has changed since 2008 /2009 is the speed at which we can move money through markets....
we're currently working on translating into English a very interesting book by the Russian macro-economist Mikhail Khazin... his views on the world's future are unorthodox and deserve closer look into it in regards to those matters of our discussions... will announce when he gets it published...
  • #963
  • Mar 14, 2020 6:37am Mar 14, 2020 6:37am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} we're currently working on translating into English a very interesting book by the Russian macro-economist Mikhail Khazin... his views on the world's future are unorthodox and deserve closer look into it in regards to those matters of our discussions... will announce when he gets it published...
What book is it? Название. I can read Russian. Thanks
  • #964
  • Mar 14, 2020 6:51am Mar 14, 2020 6:51am
Quoting Edd111111
PS weekend wallstreet not looking to strong ...
virus or no virus - the outcome should've been the same... it could've been something else with the same result... the point is that the behavior of financial markets have nothing to do with the deliberate and conscious human activities... the markets behave in accordance with some yet unknown natural laws similar to the laws of physics... I'm quite sure that my method would allow making accurate projections for any long-lasting uninterrupted process even such things as political, social, biological and other processes of this kind... I have already received some preliminary info from some Russian researchers that it can be used for predicting seismological activities for example... there are some quite anecdotal evidence that even the behavior of the swarms of bees in hives can be predicted by the method of visual chart analysis...
  • #965
  • Mar 14, 2020 7:40am Mar 14, 2020 7:40am
Quoting ALThau
{quote} What book is it? Название. I can read Russian. Thanks
https://www.litres.ru/mihail-leonidovich-h/vospominaniya-o-buduschem-idei-sovremennoy-ek-48850690/?utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=smart_shopping%7C6451100394&utm_term=&utm_content=k50id%7Cpla-573894664472%7Ccid%7C6451100394%7Caid%7C378012483274%7Cgid%7C85593335428%7Cpos%7C%7Csrc%7Cu_%7Cdvc%7Cc%7Creg%7C9047022%7Crin%7C%7C&k50id=85593335428%7Cpla-573894664472&gclid=CjwKCAjwgbLzBRBsEiwAXVIygF23zo0SiyBX2um-iEyQQGWpxY0WvUaCQx3vJeO2xl_nE0UDpheNnhoCo3sQAvD_BwE

https://www.litres.ru/mihail-leonidovich-hazin/vospominaniya-o-buduschem/
  • #966
  • Mar 14, 2020 9:22am Mar 14, 2020 9:22am
Quoting Igrok
I'm a bit worrying about that bounce on the US stocks at the end of the week on the Trump's announcement and the related news. Still there was absolutely no fundamental or logical reason for the market to correct its losses on such a news. Sure, there was a great and quite obvious technical support on the DJIA and the S&P futures as seen on this chart. That's the last line standing before breaking the 10-year long uptrend completely. However, I'm suspecting that there might be other serious reasons to liquidate shorts before the weekend. You can...
How you look gold in this scenario?
  • #967
  • Mar 14, 2020 9:54am Mar 14, 2020 9:54am
Quoting Unitedgold
{quote} How you look gold in this scenario?
or any forecast for USD/RUB on long-term chart
Path of Righteousness
  • #968
  • Mar 14, 2020 10:43am Mar 14, 2020 10:43am
Quoting moarty
{quote} or any forecast for USD/RUB on long-term chart
something like this... I posted in on the telegram yesterday... it already hit my MOT at 76 mark which I posted as a forecast for it in February, 8 there as well...
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  • #969
  • Mar 14, 2020 2:07pm Mar 14, 2020 2:07pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} something like this... I posted in on the telegram yesterday... it already hit my MOT at 76 mark which I posted as a forecast for it in February, 8 there as well... {image}
Thanks, a flat surface down below at level 55.32 is well recognizable.
Path of Righteousness
  • #970
  • Mar 14, 2020 3:41pm Mar 14, 2020 3:41pm
Quoting Unitedgold
{quote} How you look gold in this scenario?
I don't see anything specific there...
  • #971
  • Mar 14, 2020 5:18pm Mar 14, 2020 5:18pm
Quoting moarty
{quote} Thanks, a flat surface down below at level 55.32 is well recognizable.
it's not a flat surface... a real one has to have at least three touches... it's gonna be a huge triangle, most likely... with the wrong wave sequence inside...
  • #972
  • Mar 14, 2020 5:52pm Mar 14, 2020 5:52pm
Hello is it me you looking for?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #973
  • Mar 14, 2020 6:28pm Mar 14, 2020 6:28pm
Quoting quql
Hello is it me you looking for? {image}
had been before, probably... now it's unlikely... timing doesn't seem plausible already ...
  • #974
  • Mar 14, 2020 6:29pm Mar 14, 2020 6:29pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote}... the point is that the behavior of financial markets have nothing to do with the deliberate and conscious human activities... the markets behave in accordance with some yet unknown natural laws similar to the laws of physics...
I think that the markets behave the way they do BECAUSE of human activity, at least that activity associated with the markets. Naturally, the DJIA doesn't care about people's vacation and such, but it is directly affected by those people's actions towards the market. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy of sorts: on a double top, the market is expected to go down and people KNOW that and because of the actions they take (selling short, selling period or by the PUT/CALL ratio) when that second top is reached, the markets react as expected....they go down.

Granted, over the last week there was a lot of trading and profit taking/making, but the weekly candle was expected to hit support at the trendline....it did and people reacted by buying, thus causing the movement up. These reactions to well known charting patterns are seen routinely, and I believe it is due to people's understanding of what is to be expected for specific patterns, and manual trading is performed and algorithms are written with these understandings in mind, and thus actually CAUSE what is expected to happen to actually happen. Again, the self-fulfilling prophesy.

I use chart patterns as the major basis for all of my option trades, and totally agree with you that markets normally behave in a certain way in certain instances, very repeatable, almost like a natural law. Doesn't matter if it is a flag, double top or bottom, trendline break, what I call the RSI Divergence, or any of the major patterns. I just don't believe it behaves that way separate from people, but actually because of people.

And that isn't even getting into the fear and greed factor of the markets that has little to do with the charts.

Just my 2 pips....
  • #975
  • Mar 14, 2020 7:05pm Mar 14, 2020 7:05pm
like I said before, people know from nothing to very little about TA... take even this forum as an example... also all the classic TA textbooks are full of misconceptions and disinformation... as it appears, even earthquakes can be predicted by my method of visual analysis using the same approach... I've been talking already to some top world class theoretical physics specializing in the "String theory" and they also think that its applicable for their research as well... those vibrations - they are everywhere in nature including the things that have absolutely nothing to do with human activities...in regards to the markets people are just the conductors through whom nature controls the process...
  • #976
  • Mar 14, 2020 8:00pm Mar 14, 2020 8:00pm
Quoting Igrok
...in regards to the markets people are just the conductors through whom nature controls the process...
please define nature

and what process does "nature" wish to control
  • #977
  • Edited 9:12pm Mar 14, 2020 8:09pm | Edited 9:12pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} virus or no virus - the outcome should've been the same... it could've been something else with the same result... the point is that the behavior of financial markets have nothing to do with the deliberate and conscious human activities... the markets behave in accordance with some yet unknown natural laws similar to the laws of physics... I'm quite sure that my method would allow making accurate projections for any long-lasting uninterrupted process even such things as political, social, biological and other processes of this kind... I...

If collective behavior drives markets....If follow the leader is a thing.... Then one would think, there is no need to rely on subjective visual charting, as math should be able to devise accurate predictions for swarming and/or flocking behavior for bugs, birds, animals and humans alike. No?

BTW I recall reading in the past that "herd" behavior is also predictive mathematically. Not correlative, but actually predictive, which is exciting. Not sure the difference between flocking, herding and or swarming? https://www.google.com/search?q=preciticting+herd+behaiour+mathmatically&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS806US806&oq=preciticting+herd+behaiour+mathmatically&aqs=chrome..69i57j33.8990j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

https://www.wired.com/2013/02/human-flocking/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddisalvo/2014/11/10/how-hipsters-are-like-birds/#1c29ee6e4221
  • #978
  • Edited 9:32pm Mar 14, 2020 9:01pm | Edited 9:32pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} virus or no virus - the outcome should've been the same... it could've been something else with the same result... the point is that the behavior of financial markets have nothing to do with the deliberate and conscious human activities... the markets behave in accordance with some yet unknown natural laws similar to the laws of physics... I'm quite sure that my method would allow making accurate projections for any long-lasting uninterrupted process even such things as political, social, biological and other processes of this kind... I...
Invisible hand will always be there and there is not a single ta or fundamental analysis that correctly predicts it without fail.
rennstimp
  • #979
  • Mar 14, 2020 9:39pm Mar 14, 2020 9:39pm
Quoting Igrok
DJIA and S&P have reached their new historical highs yesterday... for the Dow it means that the bullish wave that started forming on December 26, 2018 and which bottomed out at 21712,5 is gonna be the last one on its predominantly bullish historical chart... so. the market is likely to reach its absolute top before the end of this year... most likely even before the end of September, 2019... from that point it is quite likely to turn around and to target the lows of 2009 once again thus reaching 5000-5500 level within the next 3-5 years... seems...
Posted almost a year ago, we've been reading the same book.
I've expected a prolonged bear market for the past few years.
Count Of Antwerp
  • #980
  • Mar 14, 2020 9:44pm Mar 14, 2020 9:44pm
Quoting Edd111111
PS weekend wallstreet not looking to strong ...
Dow-30, Fra-40, Nikkei-225; Wait another 2 weeks and it will look almost too late to buy, most likely probability I think.
Bear market is going to stay longer than a rebound lasts, though, I think also.
Count Of Antwerp
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