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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #941
  • Mar 11, 2020 10:53pm Mar 11, 2020 10:53pm
Quoting Igrok
... further losses towards and beyond 2120 mark (which is a "must reach level" no matter what) will be seen eventually... {image}
sadly, I agree with your targets, albeit for different reasons as already posted

so desperate not to spook the markets trump refused to aggressively "test and contain"
now the virus covers the nation,....Italy 2.0 here we come

truly, the situation is dire for the US; and any nation that refuses to aggressively "test and contain"
  • #942
  • Mar 12, 2020 5:11am Mar 12, 2020 5:11am
[quote=Igrok;12806627]apparently the situation is changing dramatically and it seems that my technical views have to be reconsidered and adjusted accordingly... the projected diamond on the DJI is now unlikely to emerge... it means that the the overall outlook is even worse than I have expected before...

Earlier I have found angles between two yellow lines are equal to the horizontal drawn one. Some sort of diamond formation is still possible and when geometrical pattern is in process of formation TLs don't get respected anymore price will start pushing itself out until it exits the formation.
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  • #943
  • Mar 12, 2020 5:20am Mar 12, 2020 5:20am
Quoting PeterE
{quote} sadly, I agree with your targets, albeit for different reasons as already posted so desperate not to spook the markets trump refused to aggressively "test and contain" now the virus covers the nation,....Italy 2.0 here we come truly, the situation is dire for the US; and any nation that refuses to aggressively "test and contain"
Virus is ideal situation for Italy to wright off the debt and looks like few other euro nations will pick up an idea for example here in Spain they have started fallowing the Italian foot path by locking down schools in Madrid and talking about locking down the country. And all of it is happening in the country with the best medicare in EUROPE lol I think Latinos are not going to miss this opportunity to rob the Germany for more money or at least not to pay back borrowed LOL. This is just my conspiracy theory lets see how things develop.
  • #944
  • Mar 12, 2020 5:37am Mar 12, 2020 5:37am
Quoting Argo
Quoting Igrok
apparently the situation is changing dramatically and it seems that my technical views have to be reconsidered and adjusted accordingly... the projected diamond on the DJI is now unlikely to emerge... it means that the the overall outlook is even worse than I have expected before... Earlier I have found angles between two yellow lines are equal to the horizontal drawn one. Some sort of diamond formation is still possible and when geometrical pattern is in process of formation TLs don't get respected anymore price will start
...
agree... it's still possible... but it's a long shot and the diamond in this case will become a dual-diagonal thus extending the time frame for being completely developed...
  • #945
  • Mar 12, 2020 5:40am Mar 12, 2020 5:40am
Quoting Argo
{quote} Virus is ideal situation for Italy to wright off the debt and looks like few other euro nations will pick up an idea for example here in Spain they have started fallowing the Italian foot path by locking down schools in Madrid and talking about locking down the country. And all of it is happening in the country with the best medicare in EUROPE lol I think Latinos are not going to miss this opportunity to rob the Germany for more money or at least not to pay back borrowed LOL. This is just my conspiracy theory lets see how things develop....
quite likely indeed... also it seems to me that some of the large banks and investment firms have to start disintegrating soon... in my opinion Deutsche Bank might be the first victim of it as the most vulnerable at the moment among larger financial institutions...
  • #946
  • Mar 12, 2020 8:35am Mar 12, 2020 8:35am
The situation is really funny as of now all government of Spain is in the quarantine including king and his family, schools are closing and airlines from Europe to US all canceled but UK is still open so guess what all virus infected are traveling to London from Italy Spain what have you in order to get to US lol after all it only cost 20 euro a ticket from here to London. Here we go people are crafty as always.
  • #947
  • Mar 12, 2020 9:52am Mar 12, 2020 9:52am
Goldman SPY call is short for 2450, then long for 3200.

2 options, long now with stop 2450 for 3200 target.
Or keep shorting until SPY crushes 2450, then real downside comes

COT: The precious data ignored
  • #948
  • Mar 12, 2020 4:04pm Mar 12, 2020 4:04pm
Quoting kuroro001
Goldman SPY call is short for 2450, then long for 3200. 2 options, long now with stop 2450 for 3200 target. Or keep shorting until SPY crushes 2450, then real downside comes

This is not the time to be buying in my view. US now has to follow the same pattern as China did so as to get ahead of covid19: aggressive testing and quarantining and shutting down for the next 2 months or so. When we begin to see quarantining measures easing and the reopening of what had previously been shut down, that could be the signal to begin looking for buy opportunities.

That said, in the current climate other fractures may emerge, such as in the repo market or a major bank crashing. This will deepen and protract the downturn…..fulfilling Igrok’s diamond targets.

-----------------------------------

tax cuts sound good to the average person, but they will mostly benefit the wealthy
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  • #949
  • Mar 12, 2020 8:30pm Mar 12, 2020 8:30pm
it seems that DJIA may hit its 18300 "must reach" target even today...
  • #950
  • Mar 13, 2020 5:31am Mar 13, 2020 5:31am
agreed, we are only just at the beginning...and I'm not confident there are going to be any bear market rallies

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1238303395448008704
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  • #951
  • Mar 13, 2020 3:24pm Mar 13, 2020 3:24pm
Since the total recovered world wide is over 50% of the total confirmed, I think most healthy people will present with mild symptoms (or none at all) mimicking a cold or "touch of the flu" and will therefore self medicate at home with OTC medications like people normally do. When that occurs, the total confirmed infected will be greatly under reported, which skews the mortality rate to appear artificially high.

I don't believe we will reach 1 million deaths if people do the right things, such as stay home if you are sick or limit access to nursing homes or to the elderly or those with underlying health conditions, and washing hands. My mother-in-law lives with us and if her son or other family member is sick, I tell them to wait until they are not sick to come visit. That should be a no-brainer. Even just washing hands will help with nCOVID-19 or any sickness. I can't tell you the number of times I go to a public restroom and people leave without washing their hands!! If people don't wash hands after taking a crap, they probably don't care much about germs anyway.

As far as preventable, there are numerous cases of those being told to self quarantine blowing it off. They go to dances and parties and medical mixers and malls and bars and pretty much everywhere. I believe that patient zero in Italy was told to self quarantine and he refused, and you see what happened there.

Like with any sickeness, people just need to be smart about it and use a little common sense. Unfortunately, that may be where we are most vulnerable....
  • #952
  • Mar 13, 2020 7:11pm Mar 13, 2020 7:11pm
Perhaps the states with the largest homeless population is where it will hit the hardest. Morgues tend to reach capacity fairly quickly during disasters and their is a high chance that services may not be able to collect the Homeless deceased in a timely manner, compounding health issues. The homeless are less likely to present at hospitals for treatment or ask for help. The one thing they have on their side is being outside (outside air usually contains natural germicides) and sunlight which can also assist.
I hope everyone has been making money on the markets recently it was quite some advanced warning Igrok provided so thank you very much. I hope you all stay safe and I wish to thank everyone who has contributed this discussion from all points of view I certainly see it as super beneficial.
  • #953
  • Mar 13, 2020 8:51pm Mar 13, 2020 8:51pm
I'm a bit worrying about that bounce on the US stocks at the end of the week on the Trump's announcement and the related news. Still there was absolutely no fundamental or logical reason for the market to correct its losses on such a news. Sure, there was a great and quite obvious technical support on the DJIA and the S&P futures as seen on this chart. That's the last line standing before breaking the 10-year long uptrend completely.
However, I'm suspecting that there might be other serious reasons to liquidate shorts before the weekend. You can call me crazy but now I'm already thinking about the possibility of larger financial institutions starting falling apart rather soon along with numerous dealing firms and brokers, who might then not be able to meet their obligations in terms of safe keeping their clientele finds and provide withdrawals on demand because of their sudden bankruptcies. It might be much easier to make money on the short positions than to get them safely out of a trading account.
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  • #954
  • Mar 13, 2020 9:30pm Mar 13, 2020 9:30pm
one little thing...
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  • #955
  • Mar 14, 2020 1:59am Mar 14, 2020 1:59am
Quoting Igrok
I'm a bit worrying about that bounce on the US stocks at the end of the week on the Trump's announcement and the related news. Still there was absolutely no fundamental or logical reason for the market to correct its losses on such a news. Sure, there was a great and quite obvious technical support on the DJIA and the S&P futures as seen on this chart. That's the last line standing before breaking the 10-year long uptrend completely. However, I'm suspecting that there might be other serious reasons to liquidate shorts before the weekend. You can...
Hi igor, Love the diamond, have you given any thought to the meeting between Wall street and POTUS the other day and the massive amounts of money being pushed into the markets ? I think that some of these institutions may falter but also could be propped up in the short term and that buying has come from the very deepest of pockets. Seeing the US dollar rise is also interesting given the amount of money that has been created and pushed into markets. Longer term its hard to see how some asset / commodity prices wont rise when measured in USD and may call for an unhinging from the dollar. I am not sure of any alternative currency perhaps it is yet to come into existence. I think this is an opportunity for all of the countries which want to change the power status of the world, interesting times ahead ..
  • #956
  • Mar 14, 2020 2:04am Mar 14, 2020 2:04am
Hello, Igrok,

What do you think about this DOW view? Can it be that we are seeing broadening triangle which can turn into something later?
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  • #957
  • Edited 4:59am Mar 14, 2020 3:27am | Edited 4:59am
Quoting Edd111111
{quote} Hi igor, Love the diamond, have you given any thought to the meeting between Wall street and POTUS the other day and the massive amounts of money being pushed into the markets ? I think that some of these institutions may falter but also could be propped up in the short term and that buying has come from the very deepest of pockets. Seeing the US dollar rise is also interesting given the amount of money that has been created and pushed into markets. Longer term its hard to see how some asset / commodity prices wont rise when measured in...

that's the freaking problem we're currently facing... at this point, and for the first time in history, the world economy in general and the markets in particular are no longer about money because the virus doesn't accept cash... it can't be bribed to disappear at once... that's a zugzwang situation when any next move from any government or major financial institutions weakens the overall positioning by being forced into cutting off more and more economic ties... it can't be stopped at will by simply taking and using some stimulus financial or economic measures... the only way to stop this craziness is to develop, to present and to distribute some sort of an effective vaccine immediately... it's not about money shortage in the system but because no gravely ill individual can be cured just by sticking cash into his chest pocket... same with the world economy, which is suffering and even dying because of the medical conditions and not something else... and there is no way out in sight... my crazy initial "prophecy" about the US stock markets reaching sub 2009 levels becomes more and more realistic every day though I apparently did not expect it to unfold that fast and for such a reason...
a large country least affected by the panic related to the unstoppable disease spreading around will definitely get a chance to make its currency a safe haven... among all of them Russia is the most stable at the moment though it can change any next day...
  • #958
  • Mar 14, 2020 3:35am Mar 14, 2020 3:35am
Quoting A-Mode
Hello, Igrok, What do you think about this DOW view? Can it be that we are seeing broadening triangle which can turn into something later? {image}
it's already a broadening triangle... though regardless of further developments the Dow must reach at least 18300 mark no matter what...
  • #959
  • Mar 14, 2020 5:14am Mar 14, 2020 5:14am
HI IGROK

Much respect I started reading the last several pages and then went back and read this whole entire thread, even you fighting the trolls, yet you were spot on... never wavered, even called a big event or black swan, something all you knew was this was checkmate... ( I so wish i had known of you in 2008 )

So I blew a large account trying to catch a retrace on the Gbpjpy after one of the daily 800 pip drops and became a nontrading student from then till now, working on my business to recoup. I'm here now with my large family of wife and 4 great kids understanding that they have no idea what is getting ready to happen. I called a form of this in 2007,a bit to early, as I am in the construction business. And before knowing what i know now i could just feel it. I said all that to say, Had i not been so greedy for a retracement and leveraged 200:1 and followed what i KNOW TO BE. This story would be quite different. I was completely paralyzed on a Sunday night with a gap down about 120 pips and down 12k telling my self it would fill the gap just be patient, this coupled with severely poor money management it would all be ok just don't panic 12 turned to 24k turned to 50k, etc. etc. until about 10k left in the account after margin call.. I was sickkkkkk My wife still dosent know.. never will. I turned into a student and have patiently waited this moment in time. so now I want to be smart and no ego or chasing long lost cash.

I originally shared your sentiment to the T and started studying on the potential of "capital Flight" to America. At one time became very convinced of this scenario playing out which would annihilate the shorts drive the market to 35k + and complete the last wave cycle on the yearly charts. and THEN total carnage..

The coronavirus has me on the fence now due to the fact if there was capital flight to be had as the banks unraveled and the smart money sought havens, it may now be captivated to covering their assets as the Businesses that enabled that cash in the first place come under stress and need to be covered, all the while hoping its short term and waiting for new hope..

It was this thought over the last couple of weeks that has me here in this thread seeking other thoughts to open my mind to not have tunnel bias vision..

After reading all this, I find you one AWESOME mind. and much appreciated..

I know you are not trying to tell people what to trade or make that kind of entry predictions..

But i couldnt resist asking I am currently short the usdjpy from 107.5 target 100 (heavy load very little leverage) I am asking about this at least; however, im also asking your general idea on best way to capitalize on ridding this not only for a hedge but to rise above??

Thanks in advance, and Thanks for this thread either way...
  • #960
  • Mar 14, 2020 5:40am Mar 14, 2020 5:40am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} that's the freaking problem we're currently facing... at this point, and for the first time in history, the world economy in general and the markets in particular are no longer about money because the virus doesn't accept cash... it can't be bribed to disappear at once... that's a zugzwang situation when any next move from any government or major financial institutions weakens the overall positioning by being forced into cutting off more and more economic ties... it can't be stopped at will by simply taking and using some stimulus financial...
Hi Igor, I respectfully disagree, the world markets are still about money and emotion which is measured through psychology (not so much of an effective tool to gauge with in this instance). I believe in this thread you have alluded to the point "what has changed since 2008 /2009" ? and i think that is a pertinent question. The pace at which the crash is happening is about fear of a virus however the crash (depth) itself was largely inevitable. One thing that has changed since 2008 /2009 is the speed at which we can move money through markets. The future is looking more and more likely to be different from the past through political / financial domination, although at this stage it is still not more likely than 50%. Perhaps the virus is a catalyst to make meaningful change in the way we humanity operates at a political and social level ? A question I have is when do central banks withdraw money from an economy and or markets ? to my understanding when you add to one side of an equation and not the other it ceases to be an equation. to me the real problem is homeostasis and the human desire to meet this, changing this one thing would allow for more regular volatility in the markets and less intervention. I think the Buddha says it best " life is meaningless without change" yet we strive for the same growth or the same increment. I think without volatility we are unable to achieve catalysts for paradigm shifts , which we are potentially on the cusp of or not.
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