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  • #21
  • Mar 12, 2020 7:36am Mar 12, 2020 7:36am
Quoting renNstimpy
Not sure if im alone, absolutely zero sleep Best of luck everyone, not sure why I bother even writing this. But my life is pretty much just the market at this point so why not Goodluck everyone!
It’s difficult to sleep. Very exciting times!

Quoting Ll1979
Great week up till now beside 1 fuck up trading the ZB contract {image}
Nice job!
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #22
  • Mar 12, 2020 7:38am Mar 12, 2020 7:38am
I’m still thinking crash today guys. What I’m curious about is Friday... Just about anything can happen between bouncing, market closure, Fed cut, etc.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #23
  • Mar 12, 2020 8:27am Mar 12, 2020 8:27am
Quoting Ll1979
Great week up till now beside 1 fuck up trading the ZB contract {image}
Show off
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #24
  • Mar 12, 2020 11:22am Mar 12, 2020 11:22am
Everything tanks today even gold bit odd to me but.... Speaking of gold small bounce on h4 ??
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #25
  • Mar 12, 2020 11:52am Mar 12, 2020 11:52am
Quoting Ll1979
Everything tanks today even gold bit odd to me but.... Speaking of gold small bounce on h4 ?? {image}
buying some GC. 1 quick scalp (yellow box) other position still open
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #26
  • Mar 12, 2020 11:58am Mar 12, 2020 11:58am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} buying some GC. 1 quick scalp (yellow box) other position still open {image} {image}
killed the other trade as well should have held it but my entry was way off and to stress full risk wise
Attached Image
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #27
  • Mar 12, 2020 11:59am Mar 12, 2020 11:59am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} killed the other trade as well should have held it but my entry was way off and to stress full risk wise {image}
sold to soon story off my life
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #28
  • Mar 12, 2020 1:45pm Mar 12, 2020 1:45pm
Quoting Ll1979
Everything tanks today even gold bit odd to me but.... Speaking of gold small bounce on h4 ?? {image}
The gold sell off does seem odd. It was due to bonds yesterday, but now I'm not so sure what's going on. I need to take a look at how gold typically performs when the VIX is >40 to see if this is a deflation trade.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #29
  • Mar 12, 2020 1:47pm Mar 12, 2020 1:47pm
Quoting EF5
{quote} The gold sell off does seem odd. It was due to bonds yesterday, but now I'm not so sure what's going on. I need to take a look at how gold typically performs when the VIX is >40 to see if this is a deflation trade.
The market is out of balance it seems. Everybody is running for cash i guess. Indices tanking 10% should set off gold normally.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #30
  • Mar 12, 2020 1:56pm Mar 12, 2020 1:56pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} The market is out of balance it seems. Everybody is running for cash i guess. Indices tanking 10% should set off gold normally.
Actually I don't think so. I want to say gold was down during the height of the financial crisis.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #31
  • Mar 12, 2020 2:03pm Mar 12, 2020 2:03pm
Was predicting abit more red on SPX but not looking to ride pig

Leaving the party early maybe. I do think there is a strong chance week end will see abit more red but not enjoying this this support at 25XX level on /ES

I do believe that we would see a 24__ on SPX after 2700 trend break but ehhhh

Hope everyone made good gains today, closed my puts very happy, and now ill... well not entirely sure now, I dont see many trading opportunities personally at this moment, i guess ill sleep now
rennstimp
  • #32
  • Mar 12, 2020 2:07pm Mar 12, 2020 2:07pm
Quoting EF5
{quote} Actually I don't think so. I want to say gold was down during the height of the financial crisis.
I havent traded that much gold in awhile but does anyone know for sure? Looking at gold futures and looks really off from what I would think would happen after market activity recently.

Again I dont study gold too closely in terms of pivots
rennstimp
  • #33
  • Mar 12, 2020 2:17pm Mar 12, 2020 2:17pm
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} I havent traded that much gold in awhile but does anyone know for sure? Looking at gold futures and looks really off from what I would think would happen after market activity recently. Again I dont study gold too closely in terms of pivots
It turns out gold does go down during extreme market volatility. There's a 53.9% positive correlation between SPX and GLD when the VIX is over 40. Here's every instance of it:

(You'll need to click into the image and then zoom in.)

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This compares to a 21.1% correlation between 2007-Present.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #34
  • Mar 12, 2020 3:11pm Mar 12, 2020 3:11pm
Quoting EF5
Trump’s speech disappointed traders tonight. He’s either not taking this seriously enough or he’s being constrained politically by what he can do. Either way, base case is recession and risk is still way overpriced for that. I hate to make this call, but I suspect there’s going to be a market crash tomorrow. Currently futures are down 5% and it seems likely equities could drop over 10% by tomorrow close. Watch for another emergency rate cut by the Fed.
Well, my 10% call was very close:

Attached Image


The Fed didn't cut but they did start what appears to be QE4.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #35
  • Mar 12, 2020 5:25pm Mar 12, 2020 5:25pm
Quoting EF5
{quote} It turns out gold does go down during extreme market volatility. There's a 53.9% positive correlation between SPX and GLD when the VIX is over 40. Here's every instance of it: (You'll need to click into the image and then zoom in.) {image} This compares to a 21.1% correlation between 2007-Present.
Extremely good post, I honestly wish I could tip on here or something just for this analysis.

Ive never got too deep into trading xau/xag. [in terms of swing trading] But extremely interesting to see correlation.
rennstimp
  • #36
  • Edited 7:53pm Mar 12, 2020 5:27pm | Edited 7:53pm
Quoting renNstimpy
Was predicting abit more red on SPX but not looking to ride pig Leaving the party early maybe. I do think there is a strong chance week end will see abit more red but not enjoying this this support at 25XX level on /ES I do believe that we would see a 24__ on SPX after 2700 trend break but ehhhh Hope everyone made good gains today, closed my puts very happy, and now ill... well not entirely sure now, I dont see many trading opportunities personally at this moment, i guess ill sleep now
ah i gotta love the classic ren move
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rennstimp
  • #37
  • Mar 12, 2020 5:47pm Mar 12, 2020 5:47pm
Now is the question of how much and/or quickly will SPX bounce, or will we see 2400 week end with less movement after trend break?

There is a chance of 2400 break, although after 2700 breaking. Not too sure and not sure if I would be willing to be too big into a put/call after such a dramatic day.

Regardless very happy and wish everyone best of luck
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rennstimp
  • #38
  • Mar 12, 2020 7:40pm Mar 12, 2020 7:40pm
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} Extremely good post, I honestly wish I could tip on here or something just for this analysis. Ive never got too deep into trading xau/xag. [in terms of swing trading] But extremely interesting to see correlation.
Thanks, glad to help where I can.

Quoting renNstimpy
Now is the question of how much and/or quickly will SPX bounce, or will we see 2400 week end with less movement after trend break? There is a chance of 2400 break, although after 2700 breaking. Not too sure and not sure if I would be willing to be too big into a put/call after such a dramatic day. Regardless very happy and wish everyone best of luck {image}
Today’s crash was kind of obvious, but I have no idea what to expect for tomorrow. I think we will have more government announcements coming before market open so if I had to guess I’d lean towards saying we get a bounce.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #39
  • Edited Mar 13, 2020 1:14am Mar 12, 2020 7:42pm | Edited Mar 13, 2020 1:14am
Quoting EF5
{quote} Thanks, glad to help where I can.
Energy market extremely interesting at the moment, could see it being oversold due to travel bans news.

Also could see it being a dead bounce after crash, hard to say with all global events happening.

pretty much NATural state of market
rennstimp
  • #40
  • Edited 9:10pm Mar 12, 2020 7:49pm | Edited 9:10pm
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} Currently energy market extremely interesting at the moment, could see it being oversold due to travel bans news. Also could see it being a dead bounce after crash, hard to say with all global events happening.
As for nasdaq and spx i could see that as well, im probably gonna be very light with the sizing if I make any decisions.

Take that with a grain though, I do have a common habit of underplaying value

Despite the hysteria the chance of back to back circuit breakers crashes doesnt seem too likely.

Although the travel bans might have bigger implications potentially, not entirely sure.
rennstimp
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