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  • #1,481
  • Mar 3, 2020 2:57pm Mar 3, 2020 2:57pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Radical changes that happen over a week always puzzles me and it takes like 1-2weeks after that to see the real effect, meaning if the change will persist or not... It seems we have some counters this week, compared to last week but also the new developments, FED etc.. so I find it hard to come up with the (trend) answer just now... I believe we will have to wait till at least the end of this week to have at least some form of "picture" or to see the horizon...
I completely agree. A bottom in this correction or a bear market rally seem indistinguishable at this point.

Given how quickly all of this has transpired we might have another leg lower or some sideways action before a sustained uptrend resumes. Several months of gains day after day and then a 1 week correction doesn't feel quite right to me.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,482
  • Mar 4, 2020 2:37am Mar 4, 2020 2:37am
Quoting EF5
{quote} I admire your ability to do that. I tried too, but that's a tough timeframe to trade on.
It took me a while but the future market offers a low spread making 1 tick is instant profit. Try doing that with CFDs you need at least a few ticks to make a profit.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #1,483
  • Mar 4, 2020 5:59am Mar 4, 2020 5:59am
Who will be next to cut interest rates? via@ING_Economics
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #1,484
  • Mar 4, 2020 8:19am Mar 4, 2020 8:19am
Quoting Ll1979
Who will be next to cut interest rates? via@ING_Economics {image}
The last one to do so might be asked to switch out the lights on their way out.

Central bank bashing is too easy and actually a bit unfair. One ought to attempt to demonstrate empathy and be kind to those with mental infirmities.
  • #1,485
  • Mar 9, 2020 1:42pm Mar 9, 2020 1:42pm
I think it’s fair to call this a “crash” in equities.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,486
  • Mar 9, 2020 1:49pm Mar 9, 2020 1:49pm
Quoting EF5
I think it’s fair to call this a “crash” in equities.
Yeah but were does it end? I think the shit still needs to hit the fan corona wise. Central Banks could stimulate but it won't get people in planes, restaurants and shopping malls etc.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #1,487
  • Mar 9, 2020 10:53pm Mar 9, 2020 10:53pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Yeah but were does it end? I think the shit still needs to hit the fan corona wise. Central Banks could stimulate but it won't get people in planes, restaurants and shopping malls etc.
If we are going into a bear market / recession it’s not something that’s going to transpire over just a month. We should expect a convincing bear market rally sometime soon. I’m guessing it takes 6-18 months to play out and I expect <2,000 SPX. Eventually people will just adapt to the virus and go out refusing to be hermits.

At this point I’m about 65% confident we are headed into a recession. A lot of people are talking about a v shaped recovery and no recession. It’s like bungee jumping; they expect the jumper to go down and stretch that elastic cord all the way out then shoot back up. I see the elastic cord snapping. I don’t have a high degree of confidence though since we can’t point to anything historically quite like this.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,488
  • Mar 10, 2020 2:05am Mar 10, 2020 2:05am
All said and done it's a good/normal retracement..... for now
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All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #1,489
  • Mar 10, 2020 1:39pm Mar 10, 2020 1:39pm
Yesterday I set a record for largest $$$ drawdown in a single day, but it was only about a 3.5% loss overall. I'm super thankful to have scaled back in advance of this.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,490
  • Mar 10, 2020 1:49pm Mar 10, 2020 1:49pm
Quoting EF5
Yesterday I set a record for largest $$$ drawdown in a single day, but it was only about a 3.5% loss overall. I'm super thankful to have scaled back in advance of this.
Hope you'll get back on your feet
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #1,491
  • Mar 10, 2020 2:19pm Mar 10, 2020 2:19pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Hope you'll get back on your feet
Thanks, I'm fine though. My bigger disappointment is probably missing the top of the bull market. I had planned on getting heavily short in advance and that opportunity seems to be gone now. At this point I'm in wait-and-see mode until things become clearer. The room for error is huge right now.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,492
  • Mar 11, 2020 2:15pm Mar 11, 2020 2:15pm
Where's everybody at? Equities are down over 6%, bonds are down, gold is down, oil is down... Lot's of red out there except for the VIX.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,493
  • Mar 11, 2020 2:27pm Mar 11, 2020 2:27pm
Quoting EF5
Where's everybody at? Equities are down over 6%, bonds are down, gold is down, oil is down... Lot's of red out there except for the VIX.
I think something is going on... Therefore I am staying out of the market.. but will basically RIDE the BUY (UP) opportunities (for WTI, GOLD) as they appear, might be even tomorrow, Friday or "latest mon, tue next week, if things go "well"....
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #1,494
  • Mar 11, 2020 2:34pm Mar 11, 2020 2:34pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} I think something is going on... Therefor I am staying out of the market.. but will basically RIDE the BUY (UP) opportunities (for WTI, GOLD) as they appear, might be even tomorrow, Friday or "latest mon, tue next week, if things go "well"....
It's a difficult time to put on a trade. We either bounce very soon or there's probably a 10% drop coming in equities. Odds favor it being this week too.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,495
  • Mar 11, 2020 5:16pm Mar 11, 2020 5:16pm
Quoting EF5
{quote} It's a difficult time to put on a trade. We either bounce very soon or there's probably a 10% drop coming in equities. Odds favor it being this week too.
this, cant add much also vix cough
rennstimp
  • #1,496
  • Mar 17, 2020 10:40am Mar 17, 2020 10:40am
I agree with previous posters (if they still hold that stance). This corona really messed the markets... Seems like no one really noticed the MASSIVE rate slaughter... Something that was the main focus last summer and it was talk about fraction of that.. Now they basically erased it overnight So not sure if I should continue to trade with my model as before... try to go around this... Or should I suspend the "usual" trading and join the corona-trend.. Or better just stay out of all markets until this settles down... or the first sign of hope of its fading is coming...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #1,497
  • Mar 23, 2020 2:10am Mar 23, 2020 2:10am
As requested by some members:

The camarilla pivot point indicator
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Pivot2.ex4   37 KB | 515 downloads
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #1,498
  • May 8, 2020 8:20am May 8, 2020 8:20am
Hello all, hope your all well and making pips, I had an absolute disaster, blew the account to dust, have had a little dabble but cannot hit the button, I've started small with not much of an outlook, when it went it went good, suppose my own fault in trying to catch that falling knife, anyhow, my current position is a sell on the Dow, been in and out with a few sheckles, sitting in a precarious position and the irony is it could be on the way to 24750 if it breaks up, here's hoping and not being to confident, my resumption may be short lived, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #1,499
  • May 8, 2020 8:44am May 8, 2020 8:44am
Quoting detector
Hello all, hope your all well and making pips, I had an absolute disaster, blew the account to dust, have had a little dabble but cannot hit the button, I've started small with not much of an outlook, when it went it went good, suppose my own fault in trying to catch that falling knife, anyhow, my current position is a sell on the Dow, been in and out with a few sheckles, sitting in a precarious position and the irony is it could be on the way to 24750 if it breaks up, here's hoping and not being to confident, my resumption may be short lived, D...
Welcome back champ! Hope to see you more often!
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #1,500
  • May 8, 2020 8:55am May 8, 2020 8:55am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Welcome back champ! Hope to see you more often! {image}
Ahh Li, as always, thank you hope all is well with you and your family, as with all on FF, times are challenging in all parts of the world ATM, hope we can get some resolve soon.
Decided to dip my toe in, my current sell on the Dow is 23923, indecision changed my long to a short, I had the targets plotted for the long and all hit, only I was short current price, if it breaks down, I have 23350 as a target, was expecting the NFP to quicken the move but the market seems to be digesting the figures, big swings being hard to judge too, thanks for the welcome back,D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
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