Pivot Trading

hi guys
obviously the panic of Covid19 is skewing the markets to irrational extremes.
Equities were heavy sold off and money went into safe heaven ATM Euro.
We need to weather the storm until things become more or less normal.
Should ECB drop a bomb over the weekend that would be nice.This is like last summer Trump trade war on China only difference end is questionable on this one.
If you must take losses then you must.Have troops left for another day.Its a marathon not a sprint.

People who judge a system based on this current situation are delusional.For every loss I can show you hundreds of winners.That's that for my critics!

As a side note as situation becomes more critical in Italy and Euro appreciating greater heights I think ECB most likely will interfere.
Last thing they want super strong Euro competing with the rest of central banks already started cutting cycles.
Feds may follow more cuts
Should ECB go -.25 or even -.75 like Swissy we can see serious drop on all Euro pairs

Generally positions are not kept long term when big banks shelter money on Euro since they are paying swap hence dont think this is sustainable even without ECB cuts.On slightest good news funds will run away from the Euro as quickly as it came to it.

[quote=Davit;12796440]hi guys obviously the panic of Covid19 is skewing the markets to irrational extremes. Equities were heavy sold off and money went into safe heaven ATM Euro. We need to weather the storm until things become more or less normal. Should ECB drop a bomb over the weekend that would be nice.This is like last summer Trump trade war on China only difference end is questionable on this one. If you must take losses then you must.Have troops left for another day.Its a marathon not a sprint. People who judge a system based on this current situation are delusional.For every loss I can show you hundreds of winners.That's that for my critics!......

Davit , YOUR SYSTEM IS THE BEST IN MY OPINION. PERIOD !!!!

If I had not lucked upon your system and learned from the many traders here at PPT , my account would have been eliminated this week or last week as well. Currently , I'm in DD on my UC trade which I usually do not like to hold over the weekend but I feel comfortable with my account management.
Whew , oil was the "fly in the ointment" today. Russia's reluctance to the OPEC cut's is now in my memory bank , I feel that Russia will rear its head "somewhere down the road" when we least expect it.
I hope everyone faired well this week , or at least was not severely wounded.
Have a great weekend pro's and let's advance again on Monday !!!!
Best regard's , GreenEarth

Ok, so next week the Hubei province should slowly go back to normal, factories, schools and everything else will be opened next and the following week. So taking that into account, with the PA today and during the last market hours...I expect a dump of safe haven next week, CHF and JPY, both down, not by a little either. AUD and NZD to continue up until wednesday-thursday, at least. And WTI and CAD up, too. Those will be basically my trades for the next 2 weeks.

And USDx should retrace from below 96 towards 98, at least.

U.S. dollar net long position falls in latest week
Speculators reduced their bullish bets on the U.S. dollar in the latest week, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.
The value of the dollar's net long position, derived from net positions of International Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars, was $17.28 billion, in the week to March 3.
That compares with a net long position of $21.21 billion the previous week. The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar position is derived from net positions of International Monetary speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars.

EUR 12107 + JPY 4939 + AUD 3420 + CHF 0.424 = 20890
GBP (-2815 + CAD -0.790) = -3604
NET = 17285 BILLION

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

[quote=ppxdf;12797184]U.S. dollar net long position falls in latest week Speculators reduced their bullish bets on the U.S. dollar in the latest week, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of the dollar's net long position, derived from net positions of International Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars, was $17.28 billion, in the week to March 3. That compares with a net long position of $21.21 billion the previous week...

Thank you for the information PPXDF , I find this information extremely accurate in a "normal" market.
GE

This is a test folks.

Perfect!

Another test run.

Sorry for the distraction fella's , a computer tech solved a glitch that was in my system.
Sincerely ,
GE

Bad for CAD.

Or do they want to make pressure on Russia?

Lets see how this play out!

PS: I did my calendar for the week.

11th week of the year. 2nd of March 2020

Not much this week, but one big important event that is one of the most important one since the beginning of 2020.

Wed 11
GBP GDP m/m Forecast of 0.2% from 0.3%
USD CPI m/m Forecast of 0.0% from 0.1%
USD Core CPI m/m Forecast of 0.2% from 0.2%

Thu 12
EUR Main Refinancing Rate Forecast of 0.00% from 0.00% Read below
EUR Monetary Policy Statement
EUR ECB Press Conference

Everyone will wait for the ECB on Thursday, in one of the most important meeting of Europe recent history (if not the most important).
We are in a scenario never happened in recent history and we cannot know what will can happen afterward.
Forecasts are expecting that Rates will remain unchanged, but I'm not so sure about it for different reasons. First, Italy situation. I was really shocked yesterday night about the decision to close Nothern Italy (Lombardia and 11 more provinces in Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Piemonte and Marche). An event that is never occurred in history, until now. No one can enter or exit from this territories. And this thing will really break Italy economically. I was talking yesterday with food provider businesses about their orders, less than 50% than normal. Now with this decision it will be less. I think about the shippers that cannot go outside their territory. People are not only cancelling bookings for this period, but also for the summer. Then, Cortina. Although it snowed in these days, they are closing every hotel, restaurant and different other businesses because people cancelled almost every booking. Moreover, the infected people will increase drastically, now that hospitals don't have anymore places to land the infected. I could continue, but I think that the point is clear.
Second, Europe situation. In the meanwhile also the other Countries are having problems with the infected that are increasing heavily. And I'm not talking only of Germany, France and Spain but also minor Countries in population and economic terms. You can check the site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and see Countries of Scandinavia, Netherlands, Belgium and others that are rising in the table.
Third, Powell said (during the cut rate) that the most important Central Banks of the world were discussing the coronavirus situation and ending with cut rates for everyone, in fact, we saw a double cut for US and Canada and a cut for Australia. New Zealand will follow for sure. Moreover, US cuts could not be over, but another cut could happen on 18th March. The same for the others. So, why Europe doesn't have to cut rates? To don't go with negative rates?
Fourth, what is the meaning of a strong Euro?

In the end, I don't know what could happen, but I expect a really MASSIVE action from ECB. ECB has never had negative interest rates, but it has to do something, otherwise I don't see any future of it.

Knowing russian government, they don't give a fuck. I think they knew this was coming and are prepared. I believe oil prices are going down, question is, how much?

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10bp cut is possible and my be taken up by the markets already, BUT if no cut?

For those who like ranges, I guess AZ looks a good pick. My reasons are explained here

Did you do your calendar for this week?
If yes, what reason would you want to trade AUDNZD?
Will there be liquidity?
I need volume to make trades happen.
Will you buy or sell?
Don't guess.
Are you fishing for trades?

Yes, I did. I always do.

Like Davit, Kathy Lien, and many other real traders always say, we don't always look at calendar to find a reason to trade, but many times, a reason why not! In other words, often "no news is good news"; and when real traders talk about RANGES they love a no-news calendar; take note of this...

This is the exact reason why I said AZ is a good pick for RANGE trading; often the lack of liquidity means a good opportunity for range trading; but again, only real traders know these things.

As a homework, write down on a piece of paper 100 times: we're talking about RANGES.

Ok dady!

I am learning (from real traders) and trying to share and contribute to this excellent thread. What are YOU doing?

Still not answered, will you buy or sell? As a trader I know only to trade in one direction.
Also I only trade what I know, I do not like to guess.

You really piss me off when you ask about the most basic principals that this whole thread has been based on; don't ask me, ask pivots whether you should buy or sell. By the way, I respect the forum and won't continue this nonsense argument anymore. I believe you should too.

I get pissed off when people just post a chart and guess, without even at least explaining why they would guess. That’s why I asked if you are fishing for trades?