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Let's Trade Options

  • #17,261
  • Edited 11:19pm Mar 6, 2020 8:43am | Edited 11:19pm
SPY Mar06 put flys came off each around 3bag net, $295er near 4bag. I am looking to buy this dip somehow, may wait til close
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,262
  • Edited 9:29am Mar 6, 2020 9:06am | Edited 9:29am
fishing $276/280/284 Mar11 SPY puts for 16c...filled at 15c

the nice thing about these flys with iv's elevated they are pretty cheap but also they can be profitable across a wide range - here b/e or better is between $293 and $263 +/-, with a perfect finish worth 4bag.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,263
  • Mar 6, 2020 9:28am Mar 6, 2020 9:28am
Quoting moneymaker2
Well, this is more gambling than trading, but in the following: DIA Mar13 274 CALL @ $1.70 The weekly chart looks like it is ready to move up next week, but right now I'm going off a thought rather than a chart....
Okay, didn't expect that large of a drop, but I got into the following:

DIA Mar13 265 CALL @ $2.555 average

The weekly chart looks really good now, and it looks as though the entire body of the will be outside the lower BB (~258.3) on the Weekly chart, or it will head back to above that level, either way is good for some money.....and that will mitigate any losses from the 274 CALLs should it not make it that high....
  • #17,264
  • Mar 6, 2020 9:32am Mar 6, 2020 9:32am
Insane panic treasury buying pushing yields down to record lows, not sustainable, I hope I am right, I am already in a shitload of TLT puts, but giving myself out to April and beyond....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,265
  • Mar 6, 2020 9:36am Mar 6, 2020 9:36am
Quoting moneymaker2
The weekly chart looks really good now....
...virus panic is going to play out, markets will get a sense of the real deal, it's another flu, mortality similar to other nasty flus, equities will be a leading indicator and the old v-bottom will print. You might have to look at monthly candles to see the V but hey...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,266
  • Mar 6, 2020 9:51am Mar 6, 2020 9:51am
chinese stocks have already printed a V, Wuhan in the rearview....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,267
  • Mar 6, 2020 10:34am Mar 6, 2020 10:34am
I see a gap to fill at 3260....how long will that take?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,268
  • Mar 6, 2020 1:20pm Mar 6, 2020 1:20pm
bot a Mar31 bull call vert SPY $324/325 for 8 cents
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,269
  • Mar 6, 2020 1:23pm Mar 6, 2020 1:23pm
I have UVXY Mar20 $29/30 vert calls I bot for a dime, should I take it off for 50-60c today?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,270
  • Mar 6, 2020 1:26pm Mar 6, 2020 1:26pm
Quoting The Fool
I have UVXY Mar20 $29/30 vert calls I bot for a dime, should I take it off for 50-60c today?
yes, don't be a greedy pig....I bagged @ 60c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,271
  • Mar 6, 2020 3:22pm Mar 6, 2020 3:22pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Okay, didn't expect that large of a drop, but I got into the following: DIA Mar13 265 CALL @ $2.555 average The weekly chart looks really good now, and it looks as though the entire body of the will be outside the lower BB (~258.3) on the Weekly chart, or it will head back to above that level, either way is good for some money.....and that will mitigate any losses from the 274 CALLs should it not make it that high....
Well, out of the following:

DIA Mar13 265 CALL @ $4.50 up from $2.555

I had placed an Ask price of $4.50 thinking that was far enough away that it probably wouldn't be hit, but it was....and looking at the Bid prices, they all showed <$4.00, so must have been an off the books order that hit it....and THEN, I saw a trade was hit at $6.40 and all the Ask prices were $4.50...so I don't know how one that far outside the Ask was even triggered!!

I've seen that stuff happen on the OEX after the close, but not on anything else. The OEX is expensive and fast moving normally, but not like it was when I had one open trade on the OEX several years ago and a couple of minutes after the close, the option prices were going nuts even though the index price wasn't really moving all that much.....my trade was hit nearly $15 above my (and everyone else's) Ask price. Definitely a very good surprise, but I never found out what caused all the option trading for about 5 minutes after the close like that......
  • #17,272
  • Mar 8, 2020 4:24pm Mar 8, 2020 4:24pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...virus panic is going to play out, markets will get a sense of the real deal, it's another flu, mortality similar to other nasty flus, equities will be a leading indicator and the old v-bottom will print. You might have to look at monthly candles to see the V but hey...
Worst I heard over weekend is maybe indications are that the mortality among the elderly is pretty high, I heard 10-15%, but I'm sure numbers will be changing.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,273
  • Edited 5:06pm Mar 8, 2020 4:56pm | Edited 5:06pm
Probably see VIX to new highs, I will buy far otm put spreads to catch he inevitable reversion. Record VIX high near 90 from late '08....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,274
  • Mar 8, 2020 5:05pm Mar 8, 2020 5:05pm
opening gap down for /ES over 100....Black Monday coming....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,275
  • Mar 8, 2020 5:12pm Mar 8, 2020 5:12pm
/CL gapped down from $41.x to $30...!
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,276
  • Mar 8, 2020 7:03pm Mar 8, 2020 7:03pm
last XLE big crisis low $141.x, will be beached in coming week
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,277
  • Mar 8, 2020 7:08pm Mar 8, 2020 7:08pm
plenty room below
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,278
  • Mar 8, 2020 7:15pm Mar 8, 2020 7:15pm
who will best survive the rout in oil stocks? (I am looking at those who have invested best in decarbonization)

BP....has a 7.7% yield
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,279
  • Mar 8, 2020 7:19pm Mar 8, 2020 7:19pm
RDS
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,280
  • Mar 8, 2020 10:42pm Mar 8, 2020 10:42pm
/cl heading to < $28....a bloodbath
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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