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  • #1,461
  • Feb 28, 2020 9:23am Feb 28, 2020 9:23am
Closed, for gains in total.

Shitty that I didnt get that extra payout from VIX but happens not sure what to do now might just watch for abit
rennstimp
  • #1,462
  • Feb 28, 2020 9:26am Feb 28, 2020 9:26am
VIX futures giving a short term buy (buy S&P, Dow, etc) signal:

https://twitter.com/mcclellanosc/sta...877697536?s=21
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,463
  • Feb 28, 2020 9:54am Feb 28, 2020 9:54am
Back in natgas quite aggressively 1.671
rennstimp
  • #1,464
  • Feb 28, 2020 9:57am Feb 28, 2020 9:57am
Quoting EF5
The S&P 500 is down 10.76% over the past 4 trading days. Here's every instance since 1928 that the market has been down more than 10% in 4 days, along with corresponding 5 day, 30 day, and 1 year forward returns. (Click the image and zoom in.) {image} {image} This looks somewhat bullish going forward, especially at 1 year out with a mean return of nearly 14%.
you might be right on a small retrace gonna drop some calls nothing big though
rennstimp
  • #1,465
  • Feb 28, 2020 11:08am Feb 28, 2020 11:08am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} you might be right on a small retrace gonna drop some calls nothing big though
That may be a good play. The VIX hit almost 50 today so the odds of this immediate sell off getting much worse are low. I still think there’s crash risk in the afternoon though. If things get ugly then buying into the close makes a lot of sense for a quick bounce next week.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,466
  • Feb 28, 2020 11:35am Feb 28, 2020 11:35am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} you might be right on a small retrace gonna drop some calls nothing big though
Closed

Quality posts EF5, although personally cant stomach holding weekend calls/puts

If you hit any home runs you deserve it
rennstimp
  • #1,467
  • Feb 29, 2020 12:32am Feb 29, 2020 12:32am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} Closed Quality posts EF5, although personally cant stomach holding weekend calls/puts If you hit any home runs you deserve it
Thanks renNstimpy! I hold longer term and I've been getting bearish for a while so I'm not buying the dip this time... However, my volatility based indicator is giving a very strong buy signal:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 40 KB
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,468
  • Mar 2, 2020 2:17pm Mar 2, 2020 2:17pm
Quoting EF5
{quote} Thanks renNstimpy! I hold longer term and I've been getting bearish for a while so I'm not buying the dip this time... However, my volatility based indicator is giving a very strong buy signal: {image}
So you are not buying even though you mentioned very strong buy signal? Is that indicator not reliable or something?
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #1,469
  • Mar 2, 2020 3:13pm Mar 2, 2020 3:13pm
Quoting EF5
{quote} Thanks renNstimpy! I hold longer term and I've been getting bearish for a while so I'm not buying the dip this time... However, my volatility based indicator is giving a very strong buy signal: {image}
The pricing in of central bank easing is providing some support for the equity markets. Today, the DJIA finished up almost 1300 points, over 5%. Uncertain times. Careful out there.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #1,470
  • Mar 2, 2020 4:30pm Mar 2, 2020 4:30pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} So you are not buying even though you mentioned very strong buy signal? Is that indicator not reliable or something?
Nope, I trade longer-term and go with the prevailing fundamentals. For me to buy a dip, I need it to meet the below criteria:

  1. Fundamentals support a bull market
  2. VIX > threshold (this time it was 40)
  3. Volatility indicator gives a buy signal

#1 is the most important and I'm not fully convinced the fundamentals support a bull market anymore. Economic data has been getting bearish over the past year. For that reason I'm not going to increase exposure now, and may wind up taking more profits soon.

Quoting auricforecas
Is that indicator not reliable or something?
Its pretty reliable...
Attached Image
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,471
  • Mar 2, 2020 4:34pm Mar 2, 2020 4:34pm
The markets were down over 10% last week so today's rally doesn't come as a surprise. The question is, is the bull market still alive or was today the start of a bear market rally?
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,472
  • Mar 3, 2020 8:37am Mar 3, 2020 8:37am
Quoting EF5
The markets were down over 10% last week so today's rally doesn't come as a surprise. The question is, is the bull market still alive or was today the start of a bear market rally?
Dead cat bounce?
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #1,473
  • Mar 3, 2020 11:31am Mar 3, 2020 11:31am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Dead cat bounce?
Sure could be.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,474
  • Mar 3, 2020 11:32am Mar 3, 2020 11:32am
Check out what Mnuchin had to say today:

https://twitter.com/qtrresearch/status/1234885485450924032

So if this gets bad, they might just shut the markets down rather than allowing them to crash.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,475
  • Mar 3, 2020 11:36am Mar 3, 2020 11:36am
Quoting EF5
Check out what Mnuchin had to say today: https://twitter.com/qtrresearch/status/1234885485450924032 So if this gets bad, they might just shut the markets down rather than allowing them to crash.
would be a hell of an opening i guess
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #1,476
  • Mar 3, 2020 11:37am Mar 3, 2020 11:37am
DOW H1 turning bearish again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 26 KB
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #1,477
  • Mar 3, 2020 11:41am Mar 3, 2020 11:41am
Quoting Ll1979
DOW H1 turning bearish again {image}
Are you short?
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #1,478
  • Mar 3, 2020 11:47am Mar 3, 2020 11:47am
Quoting EF5
{quote} Are you short?
No watching for candle confirmation on H1 but i trade low time frames (1M and 4M).
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #1,479
  • Mar 3, 2020 2:07pm Mar 3, 2020 2:07pm
Quoting EF5
The markets were down over 10% last week so today's rally doesn't come as a surprise. The question is, is the bull market still alive or was today the start of a bear market rally?
Radical changes that happen over a week always puzzles me and it takes like 1-2weeks after that to see the real effect, meaning if the change will persist or not... It seems we have some counters this week, compared to last week but also the new developments, FED etc.. so I find it hard to come up with the (trend) answer just now... I believe we will have to wait till at least the end of this week to have at least some form of "picture" or to see the horizon...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #1,480
  • Mar 3, 2020 2:57pm Mar 3, 2020 2:57pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} i trade low time frames (1M and 4M).
I admire your ability to do that. I tried too, but that's a tough timeframe to trade on.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
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