Pivot Trading | Page 1756 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Open Trade near Pivot line (Pivot Point) 16 replies

Weekly Pivot to Pivot Trading 19 replies

The Pivot Net Revisited (Weekly Pivot Net) 41 replies

Help with daily pivot, weekly pivot on MT4 3 replies

Pivot high - Pivot low MT4 3 replies

Attachments: Pivot Trading
Exit Attachments

Pivot Trading

  • #35,101
  • Mar 2, 2020 2:05am Mar 2, 2020 2:05am
Two basic questions

Many times I see phrases like:

A 25bp cut at the March meeting is now fully priced and on a one-year horizon, three Fed cuts are priced. However, markets' hopes rest not only on the Fed but also on the ECB cutting rates by 10bp by end-2020.

My questions are:

  1. What does it mean, exactly, when they say, for example, a rate cut is 65% priced?
  2. How do I know these figures? Do you know a link or something?

Thank you all ...

  • #35,102
  • Mar 2, 2020 2:20am Mar 2, 2020 2:20am
Quoting finally-2020
Two basic questions Many times I see phrases like: A 25bp cut at the March meeting is now fully priced and on a one-year horizon, three Fed cuts are priced. However, markets' hopes rest not only on the Fed but also on the ECB cutting rates by 10bp by end-2020. My questions are: What does it mean, exactly, when they say, for example, a rate cut is 65% priced? How do I know these figures? Do you know a link or something? Thank you all ...
1. You know that a rate cut is already priced in when a currency has already moved in the direction of the cut. For example I suppose that AUD rate cut is already priced in. Staying with the present situation instead, Fed will cut rate at least for 0.5 points, but it's not priced in, yet. The same concept is applied also to other important data.
2. I don't know any resources about it. I think you cannot say it with 100% certainty. You can search for economic tools that are predicting the next rate cut, but then you have to do your own evaluation.
Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the Earth
  • #35,103
  • Mar 2, 2020 2:28am Mar 2, 2020 2:28am
Last weeks panic leads to price extremes but still follows technical features such as support and resistance, on key pivots this week. The good news is, this creates a lot of opportunities for buys and sells, it just now depends if we take advantage of it or not. I'm sounding captain obvious here but it may not be obvious to some due to fear.

Already made nice profits today on UC and GN. Not on EA but a good opportunity as well this morning.
Fortune favors the brave.
  • #35,104
  • Mar 2, 2020 4:02am Mar 2, 2020 4:02am
Quoting artestine
{quote} 1. You know that a rate cut is already priced in when a currency has already moved in the direction of the cut. For example I suppose that AUD rate cut is already priced in. Staying with the present situation instead, Fed will cut rate at least for 0.5 points, but it's not priced in, yet. The same concept is applied also to other important data. 2. I don't know any resources about it. I think you cannot say it with 100% certainty. You can search for economic tools that are predicting the next rate cut, but then you have to do your own evaluation....
It's not that simple. They're talking about percentage; they say it's, for example, 25% priced in. So it's not just if the currency goes in a certain direction it's pricing in anything. There must be something measurable. This is the key
  • #35,105
  • Mar 2, 2020 4:44am Mar 2, 2020 4:44am
Quoting finally-2020
{quote} It's not that simple. They're talking about percentage; they say it's, for example, 25% priced in. So it's not just if the currency goes in a certain direction it's pricing in anything. There must be something measurable. This is the key
Who said that it's simple? Actually, it's the opposite of simple. I've just tried to give you my humble opinion on what I learned and on what I experienced. But if you think that you will be 100% sure on this kind of data for some measures from some instruments, well good for you.

Anyway, I think that the most effective tool to understand this kind of situations is a lot of screen time and experience. After a lot of them you will start to spot when something is already priced in more naturally.
Check also and keep in mind the phrase "buy the rumor, sell the fact" and relatives topics.
Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the Earth
  • #35,106
  • Edited 8:00am Mar 2, 2020 7:20am | Edited 8:00am
EU approaching strong resistance zone between R78 and R100. A reversal on this area is a welcome development for those who are Euro minor pairs short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 101 KB
Fortune favors the brave.
  • #35,107
  • Edited 8:23am Mar 2, 2020 8:03am | Edited 8:23am
I know it could look strange but It seems that the more coronavirus spread in Europe, the more the EUR appreciates.

In the UK where very few cases have occurred for the time being, the pound has collapsed.

So it is not so much about the country that is affected but how this epidemic is reflected on the world economic system
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #35,108
  • Mar 2, 2020 8:15am Mar 2, 2020 8:15am
Quoting mngnglkl
EU approaching strong resistance zone between R78 and R100. A reversal on this area is a welcome development for those who are Euro minor pairs short. {image}
Agree with you, see also my post #35096
Regards,
Renko
  • #35,109
  • Mar 2, 2020 8:16am Mar 2, 2020 8:16am
Quoting bubincka
I know it could look strange but It seems that the more coronavirus spread in Europe, the more the EUR appreciates. In the UK where very few cases have occurred for the time being, the pound has collapsed. So it is not so much about the country that is affected but how this epidemic is reflected on the world economic systemt
Its because of the German culture. They have for everything a plan, even when the plan is not working they have a plan for the plan b .... . sorry, I can say that, because I´m a german...
  • #35,110
  • Mar 2, 2020 8:21am Mar 2, 2020 8:21am
Quoting kleybenny
{quote} Its because of the German culture. They have for everything a plan, even when the plan is not working they have a plan for the plan b .... . sorry, I can say that, because I´m a german...
kleybenny, der war gut. Viele Grüße, Renko
  • #35,111
  • Mar 2, 2020 8:27am Mar 2, 2020 8:27am
Quoting bubincka
I know it could look strange but It seems that the more coronavirus spread in Europe, the more the EUR appreciates. In the UK where very few cases have occurred for the time being, the pound has collapsed. So it is not so much about the country that is affected but how this epidemic is reflected on the world economic systemt
Just goes to show that covid 19 is not the driving force behind these moves, but something else. If what is that, I have no idea. Probably just a set up for a much bigger move by the banks and mms.
Fortune favors the brave.
  • #35,112
  • Mar 2, 2020 9:39am Mar 2, 2020 9:39am
Good Morning Professionals.
Even though our economy here in Canada has been devastated by the downturn in the Oil Industry , I did not want to see a spike in oil prices. The worst thing this World needs right now is higher oil prices. Globally , the energy industry has been pissing away money ever since oil was discovered.
Now we have large firms on Wall Street issuing statements that a 75 basis point Rate cut is a 100% certainty in March. In my opinion , this will end up being nothing more than a temporary psychological band aid. What does the Global Economy do when the fundamentals become the reality ? At this time of writing oil prices are way up and the USD/CAD is on the way up too.
I sure hope that this week plays out far better than it has started.
I'm very fortunate , trading the USD/CAD as I mostly do , and doing well this morning.
Governments and Large Corporations could manage this minor crisis easily by cutting taxes , cutting some services , cutting dividends , numerous ways to do things.
However , WALL STREET wants the path of least resistance and they'll get it. Much worse is yet to come in my opinion when it's realized that the massive credit bubble Globally has to be deflated.
Coronavirus is just a media smokescreen and a convenient distraction in my opinion.
Discipline and patience to prevent over trading is what I hear Mark Douglas saying this morning.
Sincerely ,
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #35,113
  • Mar 2, 2020 2:52pm Mar 2, 2020 2:52pm
Quoting Davit
guys lets not get carried away.March 18th is little over 2 weeks away and rate cut is certain now since USD dominance is creating global stress. Watch the PA It was not distant past when everyone was screaming parity with Euro well it never got there! I maybe mistaken but rate cut on AUD tomorrow has been priced in. {image}
The insanity of central banks shows no bound. The favorite motto of Trump is that the US economy has never been better. If this is the case the FED needs to increase interest rates so that it can pile up some ammunition when the next recession will occur. Instead most analysts expect the FED to lower interest rates twice this year. Low interest rates is the opium of the stock market but what people forget is that the stock market has nothing to do with the real economy. Oh well, we all will see what will happen when the next recession shows its ugly head
  • #35,114
  • Mar 2, 2020 3:15pm Mar 2, 2020 3:15pm
Got a new drawing app tablet so was screwing around.Amazingly looks very "painterly"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nude.jpg Size: 232 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #35,115
  • Mar 2, 2020 3:30pm Mar 2, 2020 3:30pm
Artwork always has amazed me.
Every time I look at pictures such as the one above I see something totally new. AWESOME !!
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #35,116
  • Mar 2, 2020 4:00pm Mar 2, 2020 4:00pm
I was expecting a correction for aud since I also think the rate cut priced in, below article confused me a little bit. Due to the tomorrow meeting might RBA be more dovish? So I will wait a little more to see whether I bet on long side or not.

https://www.investing.com/analysis/u...ease-200512575
  • #35,117
  • Mar 2, 2020 7:25pm Mar 2, 2020 7:25pm
Watch out for EURGBP opportunities

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP 4 HOUR 3 MARCH 2020.png Size: 190 KB


Kindest regards
  • #35,118
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:02am Mar 3, 2020 5:02am
It's a relatively calm market so far today, except for A and N pairs doing some corrections. Coronavirus fear has abated a little thanks in part to some optimism for efforts by central banks doing everything in its power to mitigate the economic impact, starting with RBA during the Asian session. Market is expecting a cut also by BOC. But of course, there might be surprises still in store and "anything can happen" mindset should always be on our conscious mind.

Will be sitting on the sideline waiting for opportunities to pop up on the charts. C pairs are on my radar.
Fortune favors the brave.
  • #35,119
  • Edited 8:50am Mar 3, 2020 8:07am | Edited 8:50am
Quoting MoneyTalks58
I was expecting a correction for aud since I also think the rate cut priced in, below article confused me a little bit. Due to the tomorrow meeting might RBA be more dovish? So I will wait a little more to see whether I bet on long side or not. https://www.investing.com/analysis/u...ease-200512575
AUD is getting stronger, although rate cut for 0.25.
Normally AUD should go south (this is Theory behind it).

BUT the Market Makers want AUD up. And so AUD will go up. AUD will go south when mms want it to be. This is how Forex works...
Best regards,
Renko
  • #35,120
  • Mar 3, 2020 9:02am Mar 3, 2020 9:02am
Had a asshole post vile comment PM me because one of the post I was wrong on a trade

Insisted I change my post. Which I did not!Every trade is based on probabilities I could be right or wrong so I could go 10 trades in a row winners or losers hence taking anyone's trade as your own without understanding nature of probabilities is your own responsibility.That goes for other peoples opinions including mine.
You own your trades
I dont claim I know better then anyone what I do.I shared how I trade and if you find it profitable then that's fine if not you have millions options.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
17 traders viewing now