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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #841
  • Feb 22, 2020 5:06pm Feb 22, 2020 5:06pm
Quoting PeterE
...a crucial junction on dji daily a "good" close above the high and the bull market continues a "good" rejection at this high is a bearish signal ....more data required {image}
downward pressure at the "magic line"
second attempt to get well above the "magic line" has failed on H4
that doesnt mean it cant happen, it just means pressure is currently to the downside
the action below 28120 (if it gets there) confirms bearish trend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #842
  • Feb 23, 2020 4:39am Feb 23, 2020 4:39am
It looks like the DOW down week is upon us now! Big correction on it's way!
  • #843
  • Feb 24, 2020 4:48am Feb 24, 2020 4:48am
Quoting Forex.RayV1
It looks like the DOW down week is upon us now! Big correction on it's way!
Well the Bears are having a field day today... tearing apart the Bulls!
  • #844
  • Feb 24, 2020 2:17pm Feb 24, 2020 2:17pm
Nah, just giving the Bulls some discounts, that's all. There are a huge number of stocks that are right at the oversold levels, and with tomorrow being an up day, there are some good deals to be had out there, especially for option traders!
  • #845
  • Feb 24, 2020 2:53pm Feb 24, 2020 2:53pm
Quoting PeterE
{quote} downward pressure at the "magic line" second attempt to get well above the "magic line" has failed on H4 that doesnt mean it cant happen, it just means pressure is currently to the downside the action below 28120 (if it gets there) confirms bearish trend {image}
A close below the magic line is bearish for US markets/economy. If the pattern plays out as shown by the red arrows, it's down hill from here....the party is over
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  • #846
  • Edited 6:34pm Feb 24, 2020 3:22pm | Edited 6:34pm
S&P is currently in the process of bouncing down once again from its major capping line which used to be a support for a while and then turning into a resistance... that's been outlining the trend for over the last 8+ years at least... though it started back in 2009 at the very bottom of that crisis related market's drop... it seems that at this moment the blue line on the chart is a legit target and the market has a good potential to reach it in about just a few months... two to three I would say...
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  • #847
  • Feb 24, 2020 3:33pm Feb 24, 2020 3:33pm
28.4%!!!....cant see how the global supply chain isnt going to be disrupted, the question is, by how much

but, covid 19 certainly has the potential to bring down the house of cards
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  • #848
  • Feb 25, 2020 4:17am Feb 25, 2020 4:17am
Quoting Igrok
S&P is currently in the process of bouncing down once again from its major capping line which used to be a support for a while and then turning into a resistance... that's been outlining the trend for over the last 8+ years at least... though it started back in 2009 at the very bottom of that crisis related market's drop... it seems that at this moment the blue line on the chart is a legit target and the market has a good potential to reach it in about just a few months... two to three I would say... {image}
Hi Igor, I note the trend line you show in the pic here only has 2 contact points yet your book talks of a minimum 3 points can you please share your reasoning for only 2 points being necessary in this instance please .
  • #849
  • Feb 25, 2020 12:22pm Feb 25, 2020 12:22pm
Quoting Edd111111
{quote} Hi Igor, I note the trend line you show in the pic here only has 2 contact points yet your book talks of a minimum 3 points can you please share your reasoning for only 2 points being necessary in this instance please .
so it will become the third one and from that third touch we may see some initial correction to the upside... on the longer-term the situation more and more looks quite in line with my initial expectations when I started this very thread...
  • #850
  • Feb 25, 2020 1:44pm Feb 25, 2020 1:44pm
Quoting PeterE
28.4%!!!....cant see how the global supply chain isnt going to be disrupted, the question is, by how much but, covid 19 certainly has the potential to bring down the house of cards {image}
that red box is the market saying covid19 is going to have a significant impact on the world economy
the question is for how long, 6months, 12, 18?
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  • #851
  • Feb 25, 2020 3:54pm Feb 25, 2020 3:54pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bm44WVCqaRs
  • #852
  • Feb 25, 2020 4:13pm Feb 25, 2020 4:13pm
Quoting PeterE
{quote} that red box is the market saying covid19 is going to have a significant impact on the world economy the question is for how long, 6months, 12, 18? {image}
Just wait until WHO declares corona virus is pandemic. The initially reaction will be big fall! But then it will recover massively because:

Fatality rate is not massive!
Once declared pandemic there won't be testing whether someone has flu or covid-19
There won't be any quarntine because no one is testing whether someone has flu or covid-19
Majority of the restrictions will be removed (slowly) which means business as usual

Market doesn't care about virus. It cares about numbers and data. So it will look at the numbers and feel confident everything will get back to normal.
Also we are not far away from Spring. That's another factor that will help with this as well.

That's my personal opinion and thinking... What do I know? Take it with pinch of salt
  • #853
  • Feb 25, 2020 4:37pm Feb 25, 2020 4:37pm
Quoting Forex.RayV1
{quote} Market doesn't care about virus. It cares about numbers and data.
agreed (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12772795#post12772795)
  • #854
  • Edited 3:36am Feb 26, 2020 2:11am | Edited 3:36am
virus or no virus - doesn't matter... technically the stocks were supposed to top out eventually for the rest of the foreseeable future... and they already did just that... the initial target on the DJIA is clearly located at around 23K area while 18K is also a must regardless of anything... I would expect to see some bounce from about 23K.... possibly even to as high as 27K or so.... though then it should continue its decline... still there is a great chance to see sub 6K levels over some longer period of time...
  • #855
  • Feb 27, 2020 3:19am Feb 27, 2020 3:19am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} haven't seen this chart before... looks like a legit diamond indeed...
Just an update on the FTSE100 Diamond with the MOT (aqua) according to traditional sources.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #856
  • Feb 27, 2020 3:42am Feb 27, 2020 3:42am
Quoting Igrok
virus or no virus - doesn't matter... technically the stocks were supposed to top out eventually for the rest of the foreseeable future... and they already did just that... the initial target on the DJIA is clearly located at around 23K area while 18K is also a must regardless of anything... I would expect to see some bounce from about 23K.... possibly even to as high as 27K or so.... though then it should continue its decline... still there is a great chance to see sub 6K levels over some longer period of time...
100% Agree...
Next Stop...... The Aston Martin Showroom
  • #857
  • Feb 27, 2020 8:44am Feb 27, 2020 8:44am
Quoting Edd111111
{quote} Just an update on the FTSE100 Diamond with the MOT (aqua) according to traditional sources. {image}
real and quite obvious diamond beauty indeed...
  • #858
  • Feb 27, 2020 8:51am Feb 27, 2020 8:51am
I started this thread about DJIA on Sunday July 4-th, 2019... the next day the low on the DJIA was 26733.33... today it's already lower than back then despite travelling all the way up to 29568 some time in between...
  • #859
  • Feb 27, 2020 8:54am Feb 27, 2020 8:54am
technically S&P 500 looks the most interesting now... this lower blue rising trendline is the most likely target for the near term...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #860
  • Feb 27, 2020 3:22pm Feb 27, 2020 3:22pm
Quoting Marcieny
A correction may begin next month if divergent resistance does not become support then it will be a downtrend depending on the annual close. maybe we'll be negotiating a head.
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