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  • #21
  • Feb 26, 2020 8:38am Feb 26, 2020 8:38am
Quoting Replicant
... On ECB Side, despite covid19 news, there is not a lot to expect, ECB has runned out of ammo ; at last two meetings, their call for fiscal stimulus was unanimous. 2 weeks ago, EZ finance ministers agreed fiscal expansion if things get worse on macro front. => Fiscal stimulus in EZ would be Euro positive & Obviously Fed Cut expectations will give EURUSD a double boost. The only problem is current risk off environment triggered by this week-end covid19 news. EURUSD has to digest, first, current risk off flows fueling USD.
=> first fiscal measures in EZ coming from Germany but that's still (very) shy ... Germany might need a €100bns/€150bns plan...
I guess they are keeping ammo (they have a lot via budget surplus) for later, once they have a better gauje of covid19 impact on their export economy

Quoting Replicant
ST Map I have in EURUSD : As it stands : -> 1.0866 and 1.091x are nearest resistances -> If price takes back 1.092x, we will have a ST Bottom confirmed. {image}
EURUSD was up on the news but that was very short lived, it was hammered near second resistance 1.091x (major one ; as said earlier a break up of that L SH will set a ST bottom)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Monthly close is going to be very interesting to gauje market sentiment in EURUSD. There is a possible break down on M1 (1.0879). In short, it's Risk flows Vs FED expectations flows/EZ fiscal stimulus expectations flows. Losing 1.0879 on M1 will mean Risk has the upper hand and chances will be very high price visit the 2017 LT Bottom area discussed the other day :

Quoting Replicant
EURUSD No swing to call yet but a quick look at 2017 LT Bottom structure : {image}
  • #22
  • Feb 26, 2020 9:13am Feb 26, 2020 9:13am
Quoting Replicant
... ST Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 36.7x TP2 35.0x STP 42.01 MT Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 35.0x TP2 30.2x TP3 28.3x STP 42.01
TP2 35.0x hit in UBER
It's clearing also MT Swing TP1 35.0x

=> ST Swing completed

-14.63% from 41.0x

MT swing remains

Trailing STP at 39.2x now


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  • #23
  • Feb 26, 2020 9:57am Feb 26, 2020 9:57am
Quoting Replicant
in ES ... losing 318x on W1 will set a MT Top ...
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ES is now trading below MT reversal down trigger 318x .. but very high chances level is protected on W1 => looking for an entry here for a retrace swing pending long ES @ 3169
Quoting Replicant
... Sell off continues today I'm still thinking week will be saved, especially in US equities as it's far too early for a MT reversal macro wise especially with current FED monetary policy (very aggressive). But my trades were awful, in particular timing wise as it was only Tuesday and end of the week was far away.
And ES ticking back the 318x .......................................................

They are going to save the week
very bad luck for my longs, was squeezed, simple

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24
  • Feb 26, 2020 1:02pm Feb 26, 2020 1:02pm
ES currently retesting pre-market lows

=> new try for a retrace swing

Long ES filled @ 3109 TP1 3181 TP2 3209 TP3 3279 STP 3079
  • #25
  • Feb 26, 2020 6:10pm Feb 26, 2020 6:10pm
Quoting Replicant
ES currently retesting pre-market lows => new try for a retrace swing Long ES filled @ 3109 TP1 3181 TP2 3209 TP3 3279 STP 3079
stopped out @ 3079
  • #26
  • Feb 27, 2020 7:51am Feb 27, 2020 7:51am
EURUSD riding FED cut expectations

Once again, current environment is Risk flows (fuelling USD across the board) Vs FED expectations flows/EZ fiscal stimulus expectations flows (up EURUSD)

Quoting Replicant
ST Map I have in EURUSD : As it stands : -> 1.0866 and 1.091x are nearest resistances -> If price takes back 1.092x, we will have a ST Bottom confirmed TA wise. {image}
=> 1.09256 is the one to track for the close today as a break up here will set a ST Bottom :


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A confirmed ST Bottom will me make me look for longs positions to ride a swing to the top of the range
  • #27
  • Feb 27, 2020 8:10am Feb 27, 2020 8:10am
FED cut expectations are going to give a hand to US equities
High chances floor is coming

Looking for longs again in ES to try catch the retrace swing :

Pending long 3039 TP1 3089 TP2 3179 TP3 3209 STP 3009

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #28
  • Feb 27, 2020 8:48am Feb 27, 2020 8:48am
Quoting Replicant
FED cut expectations are going to give a hand to US equities High chances floor is coming Looking for longs again in ES to try catch the retrace swing : Pending long 3039 TP1 3089 TP2 3179 TP3 3209 STP 3009 {image}
long ES filled @ 3039 TP1 3089 TP2 3179 TP3 3209 STP 3009
  • #29
  • Feb 27, 2020 9:36am Feb 27, 2020 9:36am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} long ES filled @ 3039 TP1 3089 TP2 3179 TP3 3209 STP 3009
Stopped out @ 3009
  • #30
  • Feb 27, 2020 9:47am Feb 27, 2020 9:47am
Quoting Replicant
EURUSD riding FED cut expectations Once again, current environment is Risk flows (fuelling USD across the board) Vs FED expectations flows/EZ fiscal stimulus expectations flows (up EURUSD) {quote} => 1.09256 is the one to track for the close today as a break up here will set a ST Bottom : {image} A confirmed ST Bottom will me make me look for longs positions to ride a swing to the top of the range
EURUSD now trading 1.100x, there is a SH rejection there, high chance the level caps current flow
  • #31
  • Feb 27, 2020 9:53am Feb 27, 2020 9:53am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} EURUSD now trading 1.100x, there is a SH rejection there, high chance the level caps current flow
here :

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  • #32
  • Feb 27, 2020 9:59am Feb 27, 2020 9:59am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} EURUSD now trading 1.100x, there is a SH rejection there, high chance the level caps current flow
there is a possible retrace swing in EURUSD from this 1.100x

1.100x --> 1.092x --> 1.084x

I'm not trading it, got enough trying to ride the retrace swing in ES, even if trades R:R were asymetric enough to digest the failures

Again, 1.0925x is the one to track for the close to stamp a reversal up on D1 and a confirmed ST TA Bottom
  • #33
  • Feb 27, 2020 11:51am Feb 27, 2020 11:51am
Quoting Replicant
FED cut expectations are going to give a hand to US equities High chances floor is coming Looking for longs again in ES to try catch the retrace swing : Pending long 3039 TP1 3089 TP2 3179 TP3 3209 STP 3009 {image}

ES found a floor via FED cuts expectations as expected and is now trading first theoretical target of the retrace swing @ 308x, after a low @ 3006, 3 points below my STP, very unlucky on this one to say the least...

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  • #34
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:18pm Feb 27, 2020 1:18pm
Quoting Replicant
ST Map I have in EURUSD : As it stands : -> 1.0866 and 1.091x are nearest resistances -> If price takes back 1.092x, we will have a ST Bottom confirmed. {image}
=> EURUSD is set to hold the break up (1.0925) on D1

Meaning we have a confirmed ST Bottom now in EURUSD.

That allows one now to look for long positions (for minimum 1.114x and maximum extrem top 1.133x) and that also defines value areas to buy these tickets :

=> At the break up 1.092x (all above is not worth R:R wise)
=> At the ST Bottom 1.083x (best value area, my choice, hence why I called the retrace swing to this level earlier).
=> And, very generally, everything below 1.083x is super cheap as long as we don't break down current lows 1.077x)

Can it go up without a retrace swing ? That would be a runaway move, but there are no tickets available R:R wise

Nearest resistances I have to try to jump in if one believes in a retrace swing:

=> 1.100x the SH rejection discussed earlier (has already capped the flow as hinted)
=> 1.103x (last reversal down D1, which btw coincides with 50%+ 2sigma retracement)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35
  • Feb 27, 2020 5:36pm Feb 27, 2020 5:36pm
We might be trading uncharted waters...

ES already trading LT levels (!) whereas we don't even have a single post-crisis macro data released.

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  • #36
  • Mar 1, 2020 10:58am Mar 1, 2020 10:58am
Quoting Replicant
We might be trading uncharted waters... ES already trading LT levels (!) whereas we don't even have a single post-crisis macro data released. {image}
Ok we had the first post Covid 19 macro data released this week-end. Chinese PMIs look obviously surreal but 2 important points :

1) it's basically a of what markets were trading the past weeks. It's a start. Markets were trading fear/panic/psycho/uncertainty, thay can now start trading tangible data.

2) These PMI are actually already outdated : peak of Covid19 in China was reached 3 weeks ago. There are still new cases in China sure but outbreak is clearly capped there. Outside Hubei province, new cases rate has fallen significantly. A good indicator : 3 weeks ago, Beijing was a ghost city, today its legendary traffic jams are already back.

For the other parts of the wold, it seems now clear local governments & WHO have acknowledged they can't stop the virus circulation (because of the unlinked cases that pop up) and their strategy is now to slow down its circulation as much as possible until spring and warmer temperatures come. Like any coronavirus, covid19 won't make it once weather get milder. Big clusters like in Italy & Iran are going to evaporate mechanically in a month. There is almost nothing else to do now in all "infected" countries than sit tight, respect conscientiously hygiene rules and avoid big events in confined spaces until April comes .... We are far from a doomsday scenario imo. Economically, impact is going to be big (as leading last China numbers show) but short lived imo (as next China numbers might already show). Q1 2019 might only be seen later as a one-time statistical anomally.

Is it a pandemic by WHO standards ? Technically, it's a pandemic if circulation becomes uncontrollable in two continents. Statement by WHO looks imminent but it seems to me it's only a question of semantic there, not really a game changer market wise. I don't expect much more than a knee jerk reaction on the statement.
  • #37
  • Mar 2, 2020 9:40am Mar 2, 2020 9:40am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} => EURUSD is set to hold the break up (1.0925) on D1 Meaning we have a confirmed ST Bottom now in EURUSD. That allows one now to look for long positions (for minimum 1.114x and maximum extrem top 1.133x) and that also defines value areas to buy these tickets : => At the break up 1.092x (all above is not worth R:R wise) => At the ST Bottom 1.083x (best value area, my choice, hence why I called the retrace swing to this level earlier). => And, very generally, everything below 1.083x is super cheap as long as we don't break down current...
It's a runaway move in EURUSD

EURUSD already clearing first theoretical target @ 1.114x
1.114x is basically the top of the ST range

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-02032020.png Size: 56 KB


But it is time to keep in mind MT & LT levels as FED expectations are litterally huge (50bp cuts as early as this month + 25bp cut at June FOMC) :

=> we will have a MT reversal up (hence a MT bottom) if price breaks up 1.124x on W1
=> we will have a LT reversal up (hence a LT bottom) if price breaks up 1.157x on M1

From a strict rate differentials perspective, current rates expectations for 2020 have already unlocked 1.164x & 1.191x !!!!!!

Let's just hope we can have some kind of retrace to get long !
  • #38
  • Mar 2, 2020 10:15am Mar 2, 2020 10:15am
Below EURUSD MT Bottom structure price is trying to draw :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-MTBottomtentative-02032020.png Size: 72 KB


We might have the retrace only once we trigger the MT reversal up

Current flow could aim as high as 1.133x as hinted last friday

Quoting Replicant
{quote} => EURUSD is set to hold the break up (1.0925) on D1 Meaning we have a confirmed ST Bottom now in EURUSD. That allows one now to look for long positions (for minimum 1.114x and maximum extrem top 1.133x) and that also defines value areas to buy these tickets : => At the break up 1.092x (all above is not worth R:R wise) => At the ST Bottom 1.083x (best value area, my choice, hence why I called the retrace swing to this level earlier). => And, very generally, everything below 1.083x is super cheap as long as we don't break...
  • #39
  • Mar 2, 2020 12:43pm Mar 2, 2020 12:43pm
As it stands, FED cuts implied probabilities :

=> Probability(50bp cut in March) = 100%
That will set EURUSD max rates differential down from 1.75% to 1.25%

=> Probability(25bp cut minimum in June) = 87.2%
That will set EURUSD max rates differential down from 1.75% to 1.00% in June

=> Probability(25bp cut minimum in Sept) = 58.6%
That will set EURUSD max rates differential down from 1.75% to 0.75% in September

=> Probability(25bp cut minimum in Dec) = 32.3%
That will set EURUSD max rates differential down from 1.75% to 0.50% in December

Adios swap traders.....


On ECB side ? As said earlier, very very few ammo left. Slight cut maybe (10 bp ?) but banking sector is already struggling to handle low rates. Expectations for EZ are a fiscal stimulus (which is Euro positive).
  • #40
  • Mar 2, 2020 3:21pm Mar 2, 2020 3:21pm
Quoting Replicant
... also defines value areas to buy these tickets : => At the break up 1.092x (all above is not worth R:R wise) => At the ST Bottom 1.083x (best value area, my choice, hence why I called the retrace swing to this level earlier). => And, very generally, everything below 1.083x is super cheap as long as we don't break down current lows 1.077x) ...
Assuming current flow in EURUSD is the initial swing (as ST reversal up @ 1.092x clearly hints) :

Value areas to go long for the impulsive swing (to aim 1.16xx and beyond)

On D1 TF :

- 1.099x (Previous ST Bottom)
- 1.092x (ST reversal up)
- 1.083x (ST Bottom & SL rejection) best value area, a no brainer but looks far now

On W1 TF :

- 1.101x (MT bottom under construction)
- 1.095x (SL rejection) best value area on W1 (btw level was tested and sharply bought during US session last friday)

Value areas to go short for the retrace swing (the swing that is expected after the initial swing and before the impulsive one)

- 1.114x (ST Top, not my choice as rates expectations point to (at least) a test of MT reversal up @ 1.124x)
- 1.133x (untested last summer rejection (rejection that occured when markets sold the FED's shift fact (the shift to cut bias))
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