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  • #34,841
  • Edited 12:19pm Feb 22, 2020 11:37am | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting artestine
I don't know if it can have any impact, but in Italy coronavirus is spreading. From 3 cases of yesterday morning now we are at 51 cases, with 2 deaths. The thing could be drastically worse because in the hospitals they didn't check people with coronavirus test until two days ago, the day before the death of the first italian. Moreover, the italian government was not ready (as always) with the right quarantine and prevention routine. So, the cases could increase a lot in the next hours/days. Different cities (where there are the coronavirus cases)...
Great post! Even more reason to be bearish on Euro on crosses EA EN mainly not so EU and EC
Euro could open with gap down with this news.Glad I loaded up EA on Friday

Scary part Canadian relax entry procedures are caused for alarm specially huge Asian population there and if I am not mistaken flights are still permitted from China.Remember you can be highly contagious for two weeks showing no signs of illness why this epidemic is real scary.Here in Boston we had one Chinese student infected from Wuhan luckily he was curtained early before spreading thousands of students in university
Avoid large public gatherings. I cancelled a wedding invitation because just did not want to interact with hundreds of people from all over the world.The bride was Chinese...with lots of her relatives...
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,842
  • Feb 22, 2020 12:11pm Feb 22, 2020 12:11pm
Quoting artestine
I don't know if it can have any impact, but in Italy coronavirus is spreading. From 3 cases of yesterday morning now we are at 51 cases, with 2 deaths. The thing could be drastically worse because in the hospitals they didn't check people with coronavirus test until two days ago, the day before the death of the first italian. Moreover, the italian government was not ready (as always) with the right quarantine and prevention routine. So, the cases could increase a lot in the next hours/days. Different cities (where there are the coronavirus cases)...
I think the worst has yet to come with the coronavirus. Advanced economies are well equipped to treat the people who have caught this nasty disease. On the other hand, developing economies and especially those in Africa have rustic medical systems that are unable to cope with epidemics without a great deal of help from rich countries. This virus could have a devastating effect on their populations and their economies and, if this is the case, it will surely affect the economies of western nations. Lets pray that it will not happen.
  • #34,843
  • Feb 22, 2020 12:17pm Feb 22, 2020 12:17pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Great post! Even more reason to be bearish on Euro on crosses EA EN mainly not so EU and EC Euro could open with gap down with this news.Glad I loaded up EA on Friday Scary part Canadian relax entry procedures are caused for alarm specially huge Asian population there and if I am not mistaken flights are still permitted from China.
A similar scenario of Italy could happen in Canada. Also here in Italy there wasn't much alarm about it and now it is spreading very quickly.
Now 60+ more cases, and the numbers are continuing to going up.
Given that on Friday morning there was only 3 verified cases, now we are at 60 and by the end of tomorrow we could easily go beyond 100 cases verified, a big gap down on E pairs is always more certain.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: conte covid.PNG Size: 79 KB
Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the Earth
  • #34,844
  • Feb 22, 2020 12:22pm Feb 22, 2020 12:22pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} I think the worst has yet to come with the coronavirus. Advanced economies are well equipped to treat the people who have caught this nasty disease. On the other hand, developing economies and especially those in Africa have rustic medical systems that are unable to cope with epidemics without a great deal of help from rich countries. This virus could have a devastating effect on their populations and their economies and, if this is the case, it will surely affect the economies of western nations. Lets pray that it will not happen.
I was watching some services about this. In fact they told that in advanced economies the mortality rate could be less than 1% (less than a normal flu) in relation to developing economies. The most important thing I think is to be prepared to stop the infection and the spread of the virus. You saw the effects of a very organized State like Italy (I'm joking, of course)... From 3 to more than 60 in less than 18 hours.
Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the Earth
  • #34,845
  • Edited 12:43pm Feb 22, 2020 12:24pm | Edited 12:43pm
Quoting artestine
{quote} A similar scenario of Italy could happen in Canada. Also here in Italy there wasn't much alarm about it and now it is spreading very quickly. Now 60+ more cases, and the numbers are continuing to going up. Given that on Friday morning there was only 3 verified cases, now we are at 60 and by the end of tomorrow we could easily go beyond 100 cases verified, a big gap down on E pairs is always more certain. {image}
Buddy you stay safe! Avoid large public places even restaurants.Have your espresso at home!You got real talent in trading and I like you
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-it...ths/a-52477823
Doctors and nurses infected.. Lombardy and Veneto regions in lack down...
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,846
  • Edited 12:57pm Feb 22, 2020 12:39pm | Edited 12:57pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Buddy you stay safe! Avoid large public places even restaurants.Have your espresso at home!You got real talent in trading and I like you
Yeah, plan to stay out of all of this

50 cases only in Lombardia. The others in Veneto. One in Turin (Piemonte).
Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the Earth
  • #34,847
  • Edited 5:45pm Feb 22, 2020 5:29pm | Edited 5:45pm
All-star economists urge Fed to use QE and ‘new tools’ to fight next recession — just move sooner and go bigger than crisis
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/al...21?mod=the-fed

Would it move the markets Monday? Love to see USD weaken more
Knowing markets always ahead wont surprise me. UJ back below 110? EU back 1.10+UC 1.30? AU 1.68+ Not improbable and if Feds do start cutting cycle expect it lot more decline I mean lot more.Glad kept my UC shorts running since 133
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,848
  • Feb 22, 2020 8:01pm Feb 22, 2020 8:01pm
Being Disciplined and Patient is a vital component of trading and be successful in life. Dissecting your trades on Saturday from the previous week and formulating a plan on Sunday for the coming week is something that will put you lightyears ahead of someone who is lazy and indisciplined about his trading.

Ask yourself are you patient to sit on your hands for 3 days a week in order to wait for the right setup?
Are you able to execute your trades based on your plan when the price is in your zone or you get cold feet?
Do you even have a plan?

Below are some of the patterns developed on 60-minute charts last week. I couldn't trade all of them due to work restrictions but the ones I could catch I hit them with proper money management and according to my plan.

GBPUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD BULLISH CRAB.png Size: 307 KB


USDCAD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 60 MINUTE.png Size: 209 KB


AUDCAD
Not all patterns succeed. Look at the bigger picture (larger timeframe).
What is a higher timeframe doing?
Why a pattern could fail on a smaller timeframe?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD 60 MINUTE.png Size: 242 KB


EURGBP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP 60 MINUTE.png Size: 179 KB


GBPAUD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD 60 MINUTE.png Size: 178 KB


GBPCAD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD 60 MINUTE.png Size: 204 KB


Best regards
  • #34,849
  • Feb 22, 2020 9:37pm Feb 22, 2020 9:37pm
Quoting ppxdf
The current drop in stock indices in all trading floors of the world, following the US stock market, is an excellent opportunity to evaluate a tool to demonstrate the behavior pattern of investors (FX & etc) , which is called “risk-On, risk -Off when we have S&P 500, US30Y (Bonds 30-Yr Yield) , DXY (Dollar Index) and also Gold in the same graphic, rebasing them to Base Value = 0 result a very good instrument to monitor the current sentiment of the Market. As I trade only the currencies associated with commodities, it becomes a little easier to understand...

I will consider these 7 indicators on this RISK-OFF & RISK ON....INDEX
That is the same idea as traders are driven by two emotions: RISK-OFF or FEAR and RISK-ON (GREED).
In terms of Equities, too much fear can sink stocks well below where they should be. When traders get greedy, they can bid up stock prices way too far. This obviously affects the economy and consequently the Forex market.

Idea being improved. New upgrades may occur soon.

https://br.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/yHYeogM7/

======================================= RISK-OFF & RISK ON INDEX ================================================

1. Stock Price Momentum: Measuring the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ( S&P 500 ) versus its 125-day moving average (MA)

2. Stock Price Strength: Calculating the number of stocks hitting 52-week highs versus those hitting 52-week lows on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)

3. Stock Price Breadth: Analyzing trading volumes in rising stocks against declining stocks

4. Put and Call Options: How much do put options lag behind call options, signifying greed, or surpass them, indicating fear

5. Junk Bond Demand: Gauging appetite for higher risk strategies by measuring the spread between yields on investment-grade bonds and junk bonds

6. Market Volatility: CNN measures the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index ( VIX ), concentrating on a 50-day MA

7. Safe Haven Demand: The difference in returns for stocks versus treasuries

Each of these seven indicators is measured on a scale from 0 to 100, with the index being computed by taking an equal-weighted average of each of them.
A reading of 50 is deemed NEUTRAL.
Above 50 signals the market with RISK-ON. (GREED)
Below 50, Signals the market with RISK-OFF (FEAR)
  • #34,850
  • Edited 3:25am Feb 23, 2020 2:12am | Edited 3:25am
Quoting artestine
I don't know if it can have any impact, but in Italy coronavirus is spreading. From 3 cases of yesterday morning now we are at 51 cases, with 2 deaths. The thing could be drastically worse because in the hospitals they didn't check people with coronavirus test until two days ago, the day before the death of the first italian. Moreover, the italian government was not ready (as always) with the right quarantine and prevention routine. So, the cases could increase a lot in the next hours/days. Different cities (where there are the coronavirus cases)...
79 verified cases yesterday at 11 pm (italian hour), with 54 cases in Lombardia and 17 in Veneto, two of the most effective and productive areas of Italy. Numbers will increase heavily today.

EDIT: During the night Lombardia cases increased to 89, more than 100 in total.
Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the Earth
  • #34,851
  • Feb 23, 2020 2:17am Feb 23, 2020 2:17am
Lightweight week, waiting for the week after with different important events like AUD Cash Rate, AUD GDP, BOC Rate Statement, NFP and others...
We could see AUD and NZD gain something, keeping in considerations news on Coronavirus.

Sun
NZD Retail Sales q/q Forecast of 0.8% from 1.6% These data are for Q4, before the trade deal signed on January, so bad data here are justified
NZD Core Retail Sales q/q Forecast of 0.9% from 1.8%

Mon
EUR German Ifo Business Climate Forecast of 95 from 95.9 We saw a very red data last week on the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, so not so many possibilities to see green numbers. Anyway it's the only important data of EZ until the German CPI on Friday. Could we see Euro being lift up? To watch

Tue
USD CB Consumer Confidence Forecast of 132.6 from 131.6 Very bad data of Flash PMI last Friday started to give some doubts about US economy. Likely to see red numbers? Anyway USD is extremely overbought, so green numbers will not have impact on it.

Wed
AUD Construction Work Done q/q Forecast of -1.0% from -0.4% It shouldn't have a great impact, but a very green or a very red data can give some indications about GDP of the next week.

Thu
NZD ANZ Business Confidence Previous -13.2 three consecutive green data, from -53.5 of 30 September 2019. An opportunity of NZD to gain some strength? AN on my list
AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q Forecast of 0.5% from -0.2% Positive expectations. Green would be good for my A longs
USD Prelim GDP q/q Forecast of 2.2% from 2.1% It won't have so much impact, if not for very green or red data. The advance was at 2.1%, so not much to expect of it.

Fri
EUR German Prelim CPI m/m Forecast of 0.3% from -0.6% A positive data for Euro? Green here could give some boost to E, but honestly I'm skeptical about it.
CAD GDP m/m Forecast of 0.1% from 0.1%

Sat
CNY Manufacturing PMI We can see the real damages caused by coronavirus on chinese economy. AUD and NZD will be affected. It's on Saturday so we could see a gap down on A and N at the beginning of the next week.

I will manage my positions (mostly AUD longs) and I will add more if USD and CAD retest the last lows in the first days.
AN and UC on my radar if I can enter in a good spot.
Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the Earth
  • #34,852
  • Edited 6:08am Feb 23, 2020 5:51am | Edited 6:08am
This was sent to me in PM and worth posting the question

What is the lowest timeframe that you see for PA?


my answear-15min.

I am not a huge fan of Monthly Weekly candle patterns as guidelines.With so much data being released daily and during the week its not smart to assume what happened last week will continue this week and monthly even more issues.
Stay current and smart recognize that market sentiment can change rabidly. NJ example below monthly chart.Lots of areas you would of got killed to assume "follow the trend"Those are 200-500pip zig zags
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPYMonthly.png Size: 37 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,853
  • Feb 23, 2020 5:58am Feb 23, 2020 5:58am
The Week Ahead - Be Aware!
https://www.investing.com/news/econo...s-week-2091724
  • #34,854
  • Feb 23, 2020 6:13am Feb 23, 2020 6:13am
AJ monthly

There are systems which usually go "top Down analyses"
Lots of them based on faulty logic.Its assumed forex is static and does not change and we know it can change and does change quickly.
Question you should ask yourself "are you an investor or a trader? "Do you hold positions for months? accumulating massive fees?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYMonthly.png Size: 35 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,855
  • Feb 23, 2020 6:25am Feb 23, 2020 6:25am
Quoting Gmo
The Week Ahead - Be Aware! https://www.investing.com/news/econo...s-week-2091724
They are too optimistic on USD.Its already way over bought. US numbers are little slow coming in but you can be sure RED will be the color most you'll see next 6months if not more.Chance of rate cut on next Feds meeting is basically assured! After that its decline in rabid numbers much like Wall Street current bubble accumulation of cheap money since 2008
I am anticipating deep corrections on US stocks
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,856
  • Feb 23, 2020 6:54am Feb 23, 2020 6:54am
Quoting artestine
{quote} 79 verified cases yesterday at 11 pm (italian hour), with 54 cases in Lombardia and 17 in Veneto, two of the most effective and productive areas of Italy. Numbers will increase heavily today. EDIT: During the night Lombardia cases increased to 89, more than 100 in total.
132 cases in Italy at the moment.
Venice Carnival is cancelled. All schools and Universities of North Italy are closing hour after hour. Same thing for businesses. Some big cities are closing completely, for example in Padova seems that now no one can enter or exit from the city, damaging every economic activity.
Also the Fashion Week is having some problems, Armani is cancelling his runway show.
A week of hell is waiting for Italy economy, hence EZ economy

Infections in the other States of the world at the moment:

1) China 77579
2) South Korea 556
3) Japan 135
4) Italy 132
5) Singapore 85
6) Hong Kong 70
7) Thailand 35
8) USA 35
9) Iran 28
10) Taiwan 28
Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the Earth
  • #34,857
  • Feb 23, 2020 7:10am Feb 23, 2020 7:10am
Quoting Gmo
The Week Ahead - Be Aware! https://www.investing.com/news/econo...s-week-2091724
If analysts had a clue what will happen, they wouldn't need to write articles for minimum wage. Thats a reading just for entertainment or to use as a counter-indicator.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #34,859
  • Feb 23, 2020 8:40am Feb 23, 2020 8:40am
My Calendar events week Four February

Focus on NZD EUR USD.
It's relativity a quiet week prior to a busy one with NFP data and RBA and BOC Rate decisions, etc.

Sun
NZD Retail Sales q/q Projection of 0.8% from 1.6%. NC, EN on radar.
NZD Core Retail Sales q/q Projection of 0.9% from 1.8% previously.

Mon
EUR German Ifo Business Climate Projection of 95.0 from 95.9. If red this may provide some opportunities on EA, EN to sell, on the other side, if green, we may see another leg up on EG.

Tues
USD CB Consumer Confidence Projection of 132.6 from 131.6. UC, UJ on watchlist.
AUD Construction Work Done q/q Red projection of -1.0% from -0.4%. This release gives insight into the GDP data which is released about a week later.

Weds
NZD ANZ Business Confidence Previous of -13.2. EN, NC on watchlist.
AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q Projection to improve 0.5% from -0.2%.

Thurs
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Durable Goods Orders m/m Red here may provide some opportunities to sell USD.
USD Prelim GDP q/q Projection of 2.2% from 2.1%. The Coronavirus outbreak may have some impact on the numbers.

Fri
EUR German Prelim CPI m/m To edge up 0.3% from -0.6% previously. Same ideia for German Ifo Business Climate on Monday.
CAD GDP m/m Projection of 0.1% from 0.1%. UC, AC on radar.
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m Projection of 0.2% from 0.2%.
USD Personal Spending m/m To be steady at 0.3%.
USD Chicago PMI Projection to edge up 46.4 from 42.9. Previous data came pretty bad, this may continue on downtrend path.
CNY Manufacturing PMI Previous of 50.0. A red number is expected here, due to Coronavirus outbreak.

Currently holding some DD on AC longs.

Looking for opportunities mainly on USD and EUR crosses.
On the radar are UJ, NC, UC, EA, EN.

Green pips!
"In the end you only trade yourself."
  • #34,860
  • Edited 10:44am Feb 23, 2020 9:00am | Edited 10:44am
Speaking of the coronavirus ...
I pray every day that this epidemic does not reach my native country Brazil, where health does not work, inefficient, I am even afraid to think about an epidemic of this proportion.
"The freedom of the other extends mine to infinity"
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