Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ce...ops+to+zero%29


Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

In life you can always tell when someone has something to hide by the way they try to avoid answering a direct question, when they dance, skirt and try to dodge the answer.


https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...t-trails-6.jpg

In this regard something important happened yesterday, it’s been missed by many, I posted in on my twitter feed, but I wanted to highlight this in a post so at least people can see it here.

As many of you know I’ve been very much concerned about the possibility that the massive rally since October has been a giant policy mistake by the Fed. Yes they wanted to prevent a recession and yes they reacted to the swoon in December of 2018 by flipping policy and cutting rates 3 times. But each of these 3 rate cuts were actually sold in 2019.

The rally didn’t really take off until the repo crisis forced the Fed into treasury bill buying and repo in October of 2019.

Everything exploded higher, far above any fundamental basis, and markets, already on a multiple expansion train in 2019, just went into the stratosphere continuing this run into February of this year while the Fed continued to go wild:

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...0%281%29_0.png


As of this week the Fed’s holdings of treasuries is now a mere $14B from all time highs and looks to make a new record in March.


Let’s be absolutely crystal clear: This policy was originally born out of a crises, the great financial crisis. The panic of 2008/2009, whatever you want to call it.

The Fed went into panic mode with QE to try to save markets and the economy. And they built that balance sheet for years. It was not until 2018 that they started a process of normalization and it blew up in their face as markets dropped 20% in Q4 of 2018. So then they flipped, started jawboning about stopping the normalization and dangled rate cuts and markets obliged and followed the Fed put like puppies to the morning feeding.

But now look at what happened sine October. An absolute vertical move on the balance sheet. This is panic. This is not orderly buying. They went back in faster then they went out.

And it’s all predicated on a big Fed lie as I called it. “Not QE”. Bullshit. This here has had precisely the same effect, people piling TINA head first into stocks.
We can all see what has happened:

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...ges/Fed2-2.png

And THIS has been the result:

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...0%281%29_1.png

The largest disconnect in asset prices above underlying GDP in history.

Why is this all so important? Because it’s not sustainable, it’s a bubble, and if the Fed’s policy to fix repo caused all this then the Fed is entirely responsible for what happens when the bubble pops.

Hence I thought it was so important to get a Fed speaker on the record on all this and see what the response would be.

When I heard that Steve Liesman was going to interview Fed Vice Chair Clarida I posed this question on twitter:

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...XQY_normal.jpg

Sven Henrich

✔@NorthmanTrader


Hi @steveliesman can you please ask Clarida what would happen to equity markets if they stopped repo and the treasury bill buying tomorrow?

I'd like to see them go on the record.

The point was to see if Clarida would acknowledge the correlation between the Fed’s treasury bills buying and repo and the impact on asset prices.

I don’t know if Steve saw my question, but I was very pleased to actually seem him ask a derivative of the question.

“Do you worry that with what the Fed has done in terms of inserting a lot of liquidity into the market (Treasury bill buying & repo) has created the recent boom in the stock market?”

Thank you Steve Liesman.

And the response was hugely telling, I call it the big dodge, watch Clarida do everything possible to not answer the question.

You can see the exchange here about 7:00min in:


Clarida’s answer: Tries to skirt/dance with technical , intent, blah blah, then Steve Liesman pushes him on it when he tries to evade and then Clarida:
“I’ll leave that for others to judge”.

Please. He didn’t want to answer. He can’t. The same way Powell dodged the question. And I tell you why.

If there was no impact on stock prices he could just come out and say it. But since that would be a bold face lie, he can’t deny it. So he hides in a generality, “I’ll leave that for others to judge”. Oh, I’m judging.

And I’m judging that he knows fully well the policy has impacted asset prices. The problem for the Fed is that stocks have reacted much more extremely than they probably expected. And now they have a big fat bubble on their hands.

The Fed created the 2000 bubble with Y2K liquidity injections, they laid the foundation for the housing bubble with easy money policies and then were in denial about that until it blew up in everybody’s face and I submit they are making the same mistake again.

They caused another bubble and now they are in denial mode again. Why? Because they can never admit that the Fed is behind the financial asset bubbles that benefit the few and hurts the most when the bubbles pop.

For if this is true then:

Central banks are the danger.

UR INBOX

...then the core question perhaps then is this: Why are societies putting up with these organizations that have so much power yet to little accountability to the public, the very public that has absolutely ZERO input as to who runs these organizations whose credibility is highly questionable, who can’t even answer a direct question!!

The general public has zero clue about what central banks are, what they do, and how they impact their lives. The general perception may be that central bankers are heroes who save the economy, a perception propagated by the media:

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...images/CBs.png


No, the mathematical truth presents a very much different alternative view: The top 10% keep reaping all the wealth benefits associated with artificially propped up asset prices while the bottom 90% gets settled with all the debt that will hang like a chain around everybody’s neck when the bubble pops.
No, central bankers are not heroes. Rather:

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...0b_normal.jpegGuy Adami

I will say again, for emphasis, amongst the many villains of the 21st century, central bankers, specifically our federal reserve, will go down as some of the most destructive




And once the general population figures this out the resulting outcry will challenge the power status quo of central bankers around the world.

Perhaps this explains why central bankers are so desperate trying to avoid the next recession, because as far as bubbles are concerned they’ve created an absolute beast here. They are afraid and rightly so. They are so afraid they can’t even answer a simple question: “Do you worry that with what the Fed has done in terms of inserting a lot of liquidity into the market (Treasury bill buying & repo) has created the recent boom in the stock market?”
The big dodge tells you everything you need to know.

* * *

For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services.

Good morning Forex Traders

I have now closed ALL my positions. I have done 60 Forex trades since I posted the first SCREENSHOT and now I have brought the balance to where it is now.

I had one losing trade in the sixty that I did and that was because of carrying costs.

The trading started on February 6, 2020 WHICH WAS 15 DAYS AGO.


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You opened with $50,000., and NOW your balance/Equity is $43130.00. AM I missing something???

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index3136.htm

February 22, 2020


ANTIFA Terrorists Cripple Canadian Rail System As Train Derailment Attacks Begin Striking America

By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

An alarming new Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) report circulating in the Kremlin today noting Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warning that “the United States is embarking on a highly dangerous game as it’s determined to pursue the path of confrontation and keep lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons”, says of even greater concern about this “dangerous game” being played by the Americans is its not being centered on the external threats they face from foreign adversaries, but those enemies it faces on its own soil—best evidenced this past month when elite FBI Counterterrorism Fly Teams (small, highly trained cadres of counterterrorism investigators—including special agents and intelligence analysts—based at FBI Headquarters in Washington D.C.) rushed to South Carolina on 7 February to the scenes of two train derailments—on 8 February were rushed to a train derailment in Illinois—and on 13 February were rushed to a train derailment in Kentucky—with the commonality of these four train derailments being that they were all moving shipments of energy supplies—and comes at the same trains in eastern Canada have been at a near-standstill for more than two weeks—a crippling of the Canadian rail system now expanded after CN Rail announced it would be shutting down all rail traffic in eastern Canada and Via Rail announced nearly all passenger traffic across Canada is being stopped—all being caused by anti-energy ANTIFA terrorists derailing trains, and who’ve declared that the elected Canadian government and the entire country of Canada is illegitimate—and now sees the ANTIFA website North Shore Counter-Info not only calling on supporters to sabotage rail lines in solidarity with the Wet’suwet’en native peoples, these terrorists have also made several posts taking credit for rail sabotage in Hamilton, Guelph, Burlington, and elsewhere in Ontario, claiming at least a dozen acts of sabotage. [Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ant22.jpg

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ant21.jpg

According to the report, ANTIFA is a global terrorist movement composed of left-wing, autonomous, militant anti-fascist groups whose numbers of are impossible to know—with its followers acknowledging that their movement is secretive, without official leaders and organized into autonomous local cells—and in 2018, grave concerns were raised about when the ANTIFA cell in Germany released to other cells around the world the notorious “Prisma” instructional terror handbook that showed these leftist extremists how to build remote detonated bombs, while encouraging other cells to turn themselves into “riot tourists” in order to burn cars, attack war memorials, and target political party offices.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ant23.jpg

Most concerning to the SVR and other world intelligence organizations about the ANTIFA instructional terror handbook Prisma, this report notes, is the plan it laid out for its terrorist cell members to turn themselves into “riot tourists”—who would travel the globe to carry out specific attacks against targeted governments—then after committing their terrorist acts of sabotage, return to their home nations and meld back into society to plan their next terror attacks—thus creating a daunting task for intelligence agencies trying to stop these attacks—as instead of any nation being able to rely on its own resources, they would be dependant upon those of other nations, who even in the best of relationships, very infrequently divulge intelligence secrets, information or methods—most particularly in West, whose intelligence agencies are often bound by strict laws governing the use of classified information on their citizens.


With evidence growing that the train derailments in the United States and Canada are being caused by ANTIFA terrorist cells, this report continues, the animosity between President Donald Trump and his leftist counterpart Prime Minister Justin Trudeau provides the perfect environment for these “riot tourists” to operate in—most specifically because ANTIFA terrorist cell members in Canada have vast privacy protections making information about them unattainable to US intelligence agencies.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ant24.jpg

Emblem (above) for ANTIFA-Canada

The worst case scenario about these US-Canada terrorist train derailments, though, this report details, is the strong likelihood that ANTIFA cells in both of these countries are working together and coordinating their attacks—as their common enemy is a President Trump whom the leftist media daily warns is “openly mocking constitutional constraints on the presidency even as he abuses his office”—and is said to be “leading a cult sustained by constant fanatical rallies, buoyed by a campaign of deliberate falsehoods, and thriving in an alternate reality created by a media company’s propaganda described as more dangerous than a monarchy, because it is based on charismatic authority, not tradition”.


Equally as dangerous about these lying leftist claims of fear based on no evidence whatsoever, this report further notes, is the leftist media now absurdly claiming that “the nature of Trump’s instinctual tyranny is that it never stops by itself”, as well as their putting forth a vision for America when Trump gets reelected that rivals even the most frightening of horror movies—the real world consequences of this blatant fear mongering that now sees unhinged American school teachers showing their students slides comparing Trump to Nazism and Communism—with the effects of this type of socialist brainwashing being most recently displayed by Kyren Gregory Perry-Jones and Cailyn Marie Smith—both of whom were high school students when Trump was elected—but this past week were arrested after they tried to run over and kill two teenage boys for the anti-fascist “crime” of flying Trump flags on their bicycles.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ant25.jpg

When deranged leftist American teachers begin brainwashing their students to hate President Donald Trump (above)…

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ant26.jpg

…they shouldn’t be surprised when they leave school to become crazed anti-fascist terrorists trying to kill teenagers for flying Trump flags on their bicycles like Kyren Gregory Perry-Jones (above left) and Cailyn Marie Smith (above right).

Further fueling this “leftist American school to ANTIFA terrorist cell pipeline”, this report says, is the failed impeachment overthrow of President Trump that’s being correctly documented “as one more battle in America’s cold civil war”—is a cold civil war turning hot after ANTIFA terrorist cell train derailment attacks—and whom Trump has already warned he’s considering designating them “an organization of terror”—a warning countered by the leftist New York Times defending ANTIFA—the same New York Times that yesterday came under a withering attack for supporting the top Taliban terrorist in the world by of all places the fake news outlet CNN, who said “what the New York Times didn't tell readers about in its Taliban op-ed is shocking”.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ant27.jpg

The importance of noting the ANTIFA and Taliban terrorist supporting New York Times, this report concludes, is because of this leftist publication’s attempt this past week to resurrect from the dead their Russiagate lies—an attempt meant to go after both President Trump and Bernie Sanders as a means to hide Democrat Party election trickery—and specifically targeted Sanders the day before the crucial Nevada Caucus vote—a targeting for destruction rapidly needed against Sanders after a shock poll discovered that the more the American people see the hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars worth of political ads paid for supposed Democrat Party savior Michael “Mini Mike” Bloomberg, the less they like him—all coming at the same time Joe Biden has gone full mental with his provable lie claim that his son was once US Attorney General—after which then saw both CBS and CNN news networks revealing that the New York Times’ claims about Russia had absolutely no evidence to back them up—which, in turn, then caused the radical leftist MSNBC news network to throw up their arms in defeat and stunningly “call for a global financial crisis to help the Democrats beat Trump in the 2020 election”—which is the only going off the rails event one supposes won’t be blamed ANTIFA.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ant28.gif

February 22, 2020 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green(1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

“KatyDid” Ends Democrat Reign Of Terror As Impeachment Enters “Game Over” Phase

The Dangerous Evil Boredom Leading America To Ruin

Trump Throws Leftists Into Chaos After Committing Crimestop Thought Offense

Return To Main Page

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ja...ops+to+zero%29


Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
This past week saw a couple of interesting developments.
On Wednesday, the Fed released the minutes from their January meeting with comments which largely bypassed overly bullish investors.

“… several participants observed that equity, corporate debt, and CRE valuations were elevated and drew attention to high levels of corporate indebtedness and weak underwriting standards in leveraged loan markets. Some participants expressed the concern that financial imbalances-including overvaluation and excessive indebtedness-could amplify an adverse shock to the economy …”

“… many participants remarked that the Committee should not rule out the possibility of adjusting the stance of monetary policy to mitigate financial stability risks, particularly when those risks have important implications for the economic outlook and when macroprudential tools had been or were likely to be ineffective at mitigating those risks…”


The Fed recognizes their ongoing monetary interventions have created financial risks in terms of asset bubbles across multiple asset classes. They are also aware that the majority of the policy tools are likely ineffective at mitigating financial risks in the future. This leaves them being dependent on expanding their balance sheet as their primary weapon.
Interestingly, the weapon they are dependent on may not be as effective as they hope.
This past week, Japan reported a very sharp drop in economic growth in their latest reported quarter as a further increase in the sales-tax hit consumption. While the decline was quickly dismissed by the markets, this was a pre-coronovirus impact, which suggests that Japan will enter into an “official” recession in the next quarter.


https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../Japan-GDP.png

There is more to this story.
Since the financial crisis, Japan has been running a massive “quantitative easing” program which, on a relative basis, is more than 3-times the size of that in the U.S. However, while stock markets have performed well with Central Bank interventions, economic prosperity is only slightly higher than it was prior to the turn of century.

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...GDP-022020.png

Furthermore, despite the BOJ’s balance sheet consuming 80% of the ETF markets, not to mention a sizable chunk of the corporate and government debt market, Japan has been plagued by rolling recessions, low inflation, and low-interest rates. (Japan’s 10-year Treasury rate fell into negative territory for the second time in recent years.)

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...tes-022020.png

Why is this important? Because Japan is a microcosm of what is happening in the U.S. As I noted previously:

“The U.S., like Japan, is caught in an ongoing ‘liquidity trap’ where maintaining ultra-low interest rates are the key to sustaining an economic pulse. The unintended consequence of such actions, as we are witnessing in the U.S. currently, is the battle with deflationary pressures. The lower interest rates go – the less economic return that can be generated. An ultra-low interest rate environment, contrary to mainstream thought, has a negative impact on making productive investments, and risk begins to outweigh the potential return.

Most importantly, while there are many calling for an end of the ‘Great Bond Bull Market,’ this is unlikely the case. As shown in the chart below, interest rates are relative globally. Rates can’t increase in one country while a majority of economies are pushing negative rates. As has been the case over the last 30-years, so goes Japan, so goes the U.S.”



https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...tes-022020.png

As my colleague Doug Kass recently noted, Japan is a template of the fragility of global economic growth.

“Global growth continues to slow and the negative impact on demand and the broad supply interruptions will likely expose the weakness of the foundation and trajectory of worldwide economic growth. This is particularly dangerous as the monetary ammunition has basically been used up.

As we have observed, monetary growth (and QE) can mechanically elevate and inflate the equity markets. For example, now in the U.S. market, basic theory is that in practice a side effect is that via the ‘repo’ market it is turned into leveraged trades into the equity markets. But, again, authorities are running out of bullets and have begun to question the efficacy of monetary largess.

Bigger picture takeaway is beyond the fact that financial engineering does not help an economy, it probably hurts it. If it helped, after mega-doses of the stuff in every imaginable form, the Japanese economy would be humming. But the Japanese economy is doing the opposite. Japan tried to substitute monetary policy for sound fiscal and economic policy. And the result is terrible.

While financial engineering clearly props up asset prices, I think Japan is a very good example that financial engineering not only does nothing for an economy over the medium to longer-term, it actually has negative consequences.”

This is a key point.

The “Stock Market” Is NOT The “Economy.”

Roughly 90% of the population gets little, or no, direct benefit from the rise in stock market prices.

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...useholds_0.png

Another way to view this issue is by looking at household net worth growth between the top 10% to everyone else.

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...h-Growth_0.png

Since 2007, the ONLY group that has seen an increase in net worth is the top 10% of the population.
“This is not economic prosperity... This is a distortion of economics.”

From 2009-2016, the Federal Reserve held rates at 0%, and flooded the financial system with 3-consecutive rounds of “Quantitative Easing” or “Q.E.” During that period, average real rates of economic growth rates never rose much above 2%.

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...p-012220_0.png


Yes, asset prices surged as liquidity flooded the markets, but as noted above “Q.E.” programs did not translate into economic activity. The two 4-panel charts below shows the entirety of the Fed’s balance sheet expansion program (as a percentage) and its relative impact on various parts of the real economy. (The orange bar shows now many dollars of increase in the Fed’s balance sheet that it took to create an increase in each data point.)

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...1-012320_0.png


https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...2-012320_0.png

As you can see, it took trillions in “QE” programs, not to mention trillions in a variety of other bailout programs, to create a relatively minimal increase in economic data. Of course, this explains the growing wealth gap, which currently exists as monetary policy lifted asset prices.

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...-QE-022020.png

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...ble-012020.png


The table above shows that QE1 came immediately following the financial crisis and had an effective ratio of about 1.6:1. In other words, it took a 1.6% increase in the balance sheet to create a 1% advance in the S&P 500. However, once market participants figured out the transmission system, QE2 and QE3 had an almost perfect 1:1 ratio of effectiveness. The ECB’s QE program, which was implemented in 2015 to support concerns of an unruly “Brexit,” had an effective ratio of 1.5:1. Not surprisingly, the latest round of QE, which rang “Pavlov’s bell,” has moved back to a near perfect 1:1 ratio.


Clearly, QE worked well in lifting asset prices, but as shown above, not so much for the economy. In other words, QE was ultimately a massive “wealth transfer” from the middle class to the rich which has created one of the greatest wealth gaps in the history of the U.S., not to mention an asset bubble of historic proportions.

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...P-030519_1.png

But Will It Work Next Time?

This is the single most important question for investors.

The current belief is that QE will be implemented at the first hint of a more protracted downturn in the market. However, as suggested by the Fed, QE will likely only be employed when rate reductions aren’t enough. This was a point made in 2016 by David Reifschneider, deputy director of the division of research and statistics for the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C., released a staff working paper entitled “Gauging The Ability Of The FOMC To Respond To Future Recessions.”
The conclusion was simply this:

“Simulations of the FRB/US model of a severe recession suggest that large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate should be able to provide enough additional accommodation to fully compensate for a more limited [ability] to cut short-term interest rates in most, but probably not all, circumstances.”

In other words, the Federal Reserve is rapidly becoming aware they have become caught in a liquidity trap keeping them unable to raise interest rates sufficiently to reload that particular policy tool. There are certainly growing indications the U.S. economy maybe be heading towards the next recession.

Interestingly, David compared three policy approaches to offset the next recession.

1. Fed funds goes into negative territory but there is no breakdown in the structure of economic relationships.
2. Fed funds returns to zero and keeps it there long enough for unemployment to return to baseline.
3. Fed funds returns to zero and the FOMC augments it with additional $2-4 Trillion of QE and forward guidance.

In other words, the Fed is already factoring in a scenario in which a shock to the economy leads to additional QE of either $2 trillion, or in a worst case scenario, $4 trillion, effectively doubling the current size of the Fed’s balance sheet.

So, 2-years ago David lays out the plan, and on Wednesday, the Fed reiterates that plan.

Does the Fed see a recession on the horizon? Is this why there are concerns about valuations?

Maybe.

But there is a problem with the entire analysis. The effectiveness of QE, and zero interest rates, is based on the point at which you apply these measures.
In 2008, when the Fed launched into their “accommodative policy” emergency strategy to bail out the financial markets, the Fed’s balance sheet was running at $915 Billion. The Fed Funds rate was at 4.2%.
ROHEDGaily recap featuring a curated list of must-r


https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...nds-022020.png


If the market fell into a recession tomorrow, the Fed would be starting with a $4.2 Trillion balance sheet with interest rates 3% lower than they were in 2009. In other words, the ability of the Fed to ‘bail out’ the markets today, is much more limited than it was in 2008.”
But there is more to the story than just the Fed’s balance sheet and funds rate. The entire backdrop is completely reversed. The table below compares a variety of financial and economic factors from 2009 to present.


https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...020-022020.png

Importantly, QE, and rate reductions, have the MOST effect when the economy, markets, and investors are extremely negative.

In other words, there is nowhere to go but up.

Such was the case in 2009. Not today.

This suggests that the Fed’s ability to stem the decline of the next recession, or offset a financial shock to the economy from falling asset prices, may be much more limited than the Fed, and most investors, currently believe.


Summary

It has taken a massive amount of interventions by Central Banks to keep economies afloat globally over the last decade, and there is rising evidence that growth is beginning to decelerate.
Furthermore, we have much more akin with Japan than many would like to believe.

1. A decline in savings rates
2. An aging demographic
3. A heavily indebted economy
4. A decline in exports
5. Slowing domestic economic growth rates.
6. An underemployed younger demographic.
7. An inelastic supply-demand curve
8. Weak industrial production
9. Dependence on productivity increases

The lynchpin to Japan, and the U.S., remains demographics and interest rates. As the aging population grows becoming a net drag on “savings,” the dependency on the “social welfare net” will continue to expand. The “pension problem” is only the tip of the iceberg.


While another $2-4 Trillion in QE might indeed be successful in keeping the bubble inflated for a while longer, there is a limit to the ability to continue pulling forward future consumption to stimulate economic activity. In other words, there are only so many autos, houses, etc., which can be purchased within a given cycle. There is evidence the cycle peak has been reached.


If the effectiveness of rate reductions and QE are diminished due to the reasons detailed herein, the subsequent destruction to the “wealth effect” will be larger than currently imagined. The Fed’s biggest fear is finding themselves powerless to offset the negative impacts of the next recession.
If more “QE” works, great.

But as investors, with our retirement savings at risk, what if it doesn’t.

YES !!! You are missing much. What exactly is your agenda ? To monitor my thread ? I had spend hours helping you and time on the telephone talking to you in Toronto.

You want my time and my energy and you want too pay for nothing. I have nothing to prove to you and nothing to hide. So hope that helps you with whatever your agenda is.

Shabbot Shalom !!!

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ops+to+zero%29

Via InternationalMan.com,
International Man: The economic, political, social, and cultural situation seems to have become increasingly volatile in the United States and more broadly in the West. Is this a unique situation or part of a recurring historical cycle?

Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe introduced a popular theory in their book, The Fourth Turning, outlining the recurring generational cycles that have occurred throughout American history.
What are your thoughts?

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...ages/1-1_1.png

Doug Casey: I read Strauss and Howe’s first book, Generations, when it came out back in 1992. I thought it was brilliant.

Let me start off by recommending both Generations and The Fourth Turning to everybody. Both books offer quite a scholarly, readable, and prescient view of the cyclicality of history. And offer a very plausible forecast for the 2020s.
History’s best seen as cyclical, rather than a straight-line progress to some preordained end the way both the Marxists and the Abrahamic religions see it. But then, Ecclesiastes has its famous quote that there’s nothing new under the sun.

Plato in the Republic talks about how the younger generation—and we’re talking fourth century BC—can’t stand up to the moral values of their forefathers.
Older people have always thought that the younger generation wouldn’t quite measure up. In recent American history, you’ll recall, the younger generation were the beatniks in the ’50s, the hippies in the ’60s, and the yuppies in the ’80s—so it’s a passing parade. Older people have a tendency to think the world is going downhill. Nothing new there. But there’s always a rebirth.

Niccolò Machiavelli, in his Florentine Histories, said:
Virtue gives birth to tranquility, tranquility to leisure, leisure to disorder, disorder to ruin… and similarly from ruin, order is born, from order virtue, from virtue, glory and good fortune.

The bottom line is that societies arise from poverty through moral strength—and that brings them prosperity. But that prosperity brings on arrogance, and the arrogance brings on laziness, which brings on weakness and moral decline. Then they’re reduced to a condition of slavery and poverty again. Change is the only constant—except in human nature.

As I look at the United States, it seems to me the peak of American culture was the time just before Teddy Roosevelt came into office. Teddy is certainly among the top five worst presidents. And there’s plenty of competition for that title.

He was the first real “progressive” president; he wanted the government actively involved in all areas of life.

Now, that’s not to say that Teddy Roosevelt wouldn’t have been a really great drinking pal, a wonderful guy to go camping with, a fun guy to have an intellectual conversation with. He had a lot of admirable personal values. But he was a nationalist, a statist, and a warmonger. That’s why I say he was a horrible president.
The long-term trend of US overseas imperialism started with the Spanish–American War and the building of an overseas American empire in Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Philippines, and Hawaii—followed by World War I.

The US has gone from being noninterventionist to now having many hundreds of bases around the world and trying to give orders to every other country in the world. That kind of arrogance always ends badly.

As a civilization—a culture—the US has been on an accelerating path downhill for about 120 years now. That’s true even while science and technology have greatly increased the general standard of living. It’s a mistake to conflate a higher standard of living with higher moral values—that’s what Machiavelli was talking about.
I question whether that trend will change—at least until we have a genuine crisis. Why not? Because a lot of the way a society acts comes from the way kids are brought up—the values that are inculcated in them when they’re young. And increasingly, kids are taught what I would call the wrong values.
Saint Ignatius said this in the 17th century, and Lenin repeated it in the 20th century. They both said that if you indoctrinate someone in his youth, chances are you’ve directed his worldview for the rest of his life.

Cultural Marxists are now totally in control of the US educational system, and have been for a couple of generations. That’s absolutely the case in the colleges and universities but also in the high schools and even in the grade schools. Kids are being taught to be socialists, ecowarriors, social justice warriors, and “woke” from an early age. It’s really serious.

And it’s not a cyclical phenomenon. This is one of the few areas in which I take some issue with The Fourth Turning. The trend towards collectivism and statism seems to be a secular long-term trend that’s still accelerating.

There are a few bright spots. Libertarians, for instance, are somewhat more prominent than in the past. But the fact that libertarians believe in personal freedom, in the face of a societal trend in the opposite direction, makes me tend to believe they’re actually genetic mutants. They’re just a small percentage of the population, whose nature has resisted the prevailing nurture.

I say that, only partially because of my own experience. I grew up in what could—jokingly—be called a cannibalistic death cult and was imbued with all kinds of strange notions by nuns and priests at the schools that I went to. I rejected them intuitively and intellectually, but they still stick to you like tar. It can take years to wash off the effects of early indoctrination.

I’m more of a maverick than most people are, however. Most just continue to believe what they’re taught as kids, reflexively and automatically—right or wrong. So I don’t think there’s really much hope of a serious change in the direction of American culture. At least until a major crisis—and the outcome of that is in doubt.
International Man: OK. That’s the long-term trend. Where are we in the generational cycle now? Are we moving into the fourth turning and headed for a crisis?
Doug Casey: Strauss and Howe take a cyclical point of view over the course of roughly 80 years, four generations.

To very briefly summarize their theory, there are four “turnings”: a “high,” an “awakening,” an “unraveling,” and a “crisis.”

Over the last couple of decades, we’ve been undergoing the unraveling, where old values fall apart. Next, Strauss and Howe predicted a crisis, starting about 2015, which tests the very existence of the society. Or at least the way it’s run.

They go beyond seeing generations as being simply “liberal” or “conservative.” According to Strauss and Howe, there are four generational archetypes that last over a cycle of 80 years—20 years per generation—corresponding to the “turnings.”

Without going into all the details, they see the baby boomers as being a “Prophet” Generation. The authors are ideologically oriented—fire and brimstone types—very much like Bernie Sanders on the left and Donald Trump on the right. Kind of biblically apocalyptic by nature.

They were quite correct in defining the Generation X types as the so-called “Nomad” Generation. These are kids who learned to take care of themselves—and are not so ideological in the way they think.

The Millennials are who are relevant at the moment. They correspond, in Strauss and Howe’s view, to the World War II generation. They’d be the frontline soldiers in the coming crisis and conflicts.


International Man: What happens after a crisis? Is there a positive way forward?

Doug Casey: Historically, the answer is, “Almost never”—in the short run. The best recent example is the French Revolution. It got worse with Robespierre—a Bernie Sanders of the era—followed by Napoleon. Or take the case of the Russian revolution. As necessary as it was to get rid of Nicholas II, it got worse with Lenin, and then it got even worse with Stalin. But even in those cases, France and Russia recovered.

If it all comes unglued in the US over the next decade, those two revolutions could be templates. Look at the way leading Democrats think, and listen to what they’re saying. They’re echoing Robespierre and Lenin.

The Republicans aren’t much better, because although they sometimes talk the talk of peace and personal freedom, they almost never walk the walk. The two major US parties—and people in the Red counties and the Blue counties—seem to really hate each other.


It’s quite ugly sociologically. There are irreconcilable differences. They’re exacerbated by the fact we’re headed for a financial blow up. There’s no doubt about that.

Some years ago, there was a poll taken among Generation X types. It turned out that more of them believed that space aliens were going to invade than that they were ever going to collect Social Security. People have very little faith in “the system” anymore, the society, or the government.

If we go back to the beginning of the 20th century, the country really wasn’t very political at all. People worried about their own lives, their own families, and their own local communities. Americans shared a common culture, beliefs, and values—that’s no longer true. Now the country has become very politicized—everybody has a loud voice and they use votes as weapons against their neighbors. It’s become a nation of nasty busybodies.

That makes me think the next upset will be something like a revolution. It’s likely to be really ugly, because we’re looking, simultaneously, at an economic catastrophe, political chaos, and a social and demographic upset—and probably a military situation as well. Government often sees war as a way to unite the country.
So, what’s going to happen?

I’ll hazard a guess that 50 years from now, the United States and, for that matter, most countries are not going to exist in anything like their present form. The best solution is a peaceful break up into smaller political subdivisions. As opposed to a civil war—which is a contest between one or more groups for the control of a central government.

* * *

The economic trajectory is troubling. Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can practically do to change the course of these trends in motion. The best you can and should do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible, and even profit from the situation. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey just released Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse an urgent new PDF report. It explains what could come next and what you can do about it so you don’t become a victim. Click here to download it now.

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4. Mar 13, 2018 7:27pm

1. https://cdn-assets.faireconomy.media...ar392875_2.gif BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 6,564 Posts | Online Now

This will be my last post for the next few hours. There is plenty of material for you to review.

Here is my POST 420 of this Thread !!!

 

1. Dec 26, 2016 12:15pm

 

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,675 Posts | Online Now

And now for the last part of my answer to the excellent question of TooSlow.

Comments from Benjaminis: EVERYONE reading this carefully NOW has an EDGE if you use this KNOWLEDGE.

Knowledge is Power only if you use it and act upon it. For myself knowing this then I can prepare for the changes in values of all the Asset Classes and watch as the MONEY FLOWS from one to another and what the change in one does to the other. This is why I have said that the MOST IMPORTANT FUNDAMENTAL FACTS are not the fundamentals themselves or the use only of technical indicators or supply and demand although they all help they cannot SET THE TREND so knowing the trend you have your EDGE. It is not all that difficult to understand.

Each day we ask ourselves , "Do We Have Risk On today or Risk Off" ? The answer to that question gives us the direction to start although a fundamental new FACT can change the direction in seconds such as a Brexit or a FED Rate hike or NFP or any number of daily facts, expected or unexpected.

Then we come to my associated topic , Risk Management. The strategy that I have developed over the last 5 years always works with the exception being the Forex Trader themselves. Unless you have the desire and the interest and the DISCIPLINE to control your FEAR and your Greed you will lose. Of course since the MARKET is always right 100% of the time, unless you have complete control of your EGO for sure you will wipe out your account.

That is why I have not developed too many bad trading habits because I learned my trade over three years only trading demo funds of $50,000 US.

When I started real Forex trading with real funds , I went out and raised $250,000 US from a number of clients and traded their funds using LPOA. (Limited Power of Attorney).

My first large account during October 2007 was for $100,000 US and in the first 35 days of my Forex trading for a Hong Kong corporation I earned for my client $19,000 Plus US Dollars. My performance fee was 20% of the Net Profits.

I traded through the Financial Meltdown of 2008 when EUR/USD after reaching an all time HIGH around 1.60 within months broke below 1.20 and I took major losses for this same client and that was the day during 2008 that I realized that as good a Forex trader that I was, unless I had a FOOLPROOF Risk Management Method this could and would happen to my clients in the FUTURE.

Now that cannot happen ever again as long as I maintain my DISCIPLINE and my desire to trade Forex and have fun.

I offer anyone here this opportunity to learn at no cost to you other than your time and effort. There are still 3 spaces available.

This information comes from post 117 of December 13, 2016 on page 6 of my thread on Money Flow and Risk Management !!!

My congratulations go to DavidRP who is the first Forex Factory trader that has opened his FXCM UK Demo Account.

I have logged into his account since as requested he has emailed to [email protected] his User Login and Password.

I now have organized for DavidRP the 16 symbols that I use on the FXCM UK Demo trading platform. DavidRP now has $50,000 US Dollars to trade with. I will show here what the 16 symbols that are used and in the order that they are on the platform in blocks of 6 symbols.

EUR/USD EUR/JPY USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CNH USD/CHF

EUR/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD USDOLLAR XAU/USD XAG/USD

US30 NAS100 SPX500 COPPER UKOIL BUND

You can all see that by having these 16 pairs you have an excellent view of the Money Flow between Asset Classes.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index3137.htm

February 23, 2020

Russian Disease Expert Talks To US Intel Expert About Coronavirus In Iran—She Gets Thrown Into Spanish Prison, He Gets Bullet In Head
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

An absolutely horrifying highly-classified “Of Special Importance” new Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) report circulating in the Kremlin today states that upon an urgent 16 February request-notification made to the SVR by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA), an investigative file has been opened into the present circumstances of Russia citizen Olesya Krasilova—a multilingual biomedical expert working as a translator for the All-Russia Plant Quarantine Center [English], which is part of the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (ROSSELKHOZADZOR)—and who, on 14 February, traveled with a team of Russian doctor-scientists to Tenerife (the largest and most populated island of the eight Spanish archipelago Canary Islands) where they joined other international disease experts to examine the puzzling case of a German tourist who contracted the deadly coronavirus on the remote island of La Gomera in the Canary islands—but on 16 February when Olesya Krasilova was at the Tenerife South Airport preparing to board her return flight to Russia, saw her being seized by Spanish police and thrown into prison in what Foreign Ministry officials said “may probably be linked with some sort of request from the American side”—which immediately prompted an SVR surveillance of the most recent contacts made by Krasilova—the most concerning contact being a 15 February call she received from a former US intelligence expert named Philip Haney—whom Krasilova knew from her time while working as a clerk-translator at the American Embassy in Moscow—and during this call saw them discussing the mysterious deadly coronavirus outbreak in Iran whose percentage death rate is higher than that in China—but whose further examination of Philip Haney is no longer possible, because within five days of Krasilova being thrown into a Spanish prison, on 21 February, he was found assassinated next to his vehicle in California with a single gunshot wound in his head—an assassination immediately responded to by his close friend Jan Markell who said: “My friend Phil Haney was found shot yesterday in CA…I had lunch with him a month ago…He warned something could happen to him…He was to get married in a month…It will be falsely called a suicide”—and—Republican Party US Congressman Steve King who stated: “Phil Haney was a friend & patriot…He was a target because of all he knew of Islamic terrorist coverups…He insured his life by archiving data that incriminated the highest levels of the Obama administration…Phil Haney didn’t kill himself”. [Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ole21.jpg

Russian linguist Olesya Krasilova (above) thrown into Spanish prison after talking with US intelligence expert Phil Haney on 15 February 2020…

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ole22.jpg

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ole23.jpg

…he is assassinated shortly later on 21 February 2020.

According to the very limited portions of this highly-classified SVR report permitted to be discussed among various ministry officials, during her time working at the American Embassy in Moscow during the Obama-Clinton Regime years, the main duties assigned to Olesya Krasilova were the translation into English of public Russian documents dealing with Islamic terrorist organizations, their operations and identified leaders—one of the main consumers of whom was the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS)—which frequently put Krasilova into contact with DHS intelligence expert Phil Haney, who was this US intelligence agency’s main point person for Islamic terrorist organization matters.

Upon leaving her posting at the American Embassy in Moscow, this report details, Krasilova accepted her new position with the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance working as a translator for their All-Russia Plant Quarantine Center—but who, in early May-2019, was contacted by Phil Haney—who told Krasilova that he no longer worked for the US government, and requested her aid in translating for him publically sourced Russian language documents compiled in the 1980s by the former Soviet Army relating to Deobandi Islam activity in Afghanistan.

As required under Russian laws dealing with citizen contacts with foreign intelligence officials, this report continues, Krasilova notified the Federal Security Service (FSB) of this request—AFTER THIS NOTATION ALL LINES ARE BLACKED OUT, UNTIL THIS SECTION CONTINUES WITH—the result of whose collaboration led Phil Haney, on 11 June 2019, to publish his investigative document titled “Deoband Attacks In San Bernardino, Sri Lanka”—which chillingly linked Deoband Islam Uyghur Jihad Groups operating in Western China with other of these secretive terror organizations scattered throughout the Middle East—and just a year after Haney established these Deoband Islam links, saw the mysterious coronavirus erupting in a China currently conducting a mass persecution of its Islamic Uyghur peoples—a deadly disease outbreak that’s, also, now inexplicably struck Deoband Islam’s other great enemy Iran—where today Iranian authorities reported two more deaths from the deadly coronavirus, bringing the country's death toll to eight -- the highest such toll outside the disease's epicenter in China.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ole25.jpg

With global concerns being voiced that this deadly coronavirus might be a manufactured bioweapon, this report concludes, its two main targets of China and Iran give unmistakable clues of Deobandi Islam terrorist organization involvement—but who would need state-actor backing and financing to accomplish such bioweapon attacks against their main enemies—a state-actor like the United States—but whose full involvement with Deobandi Islam terrorists may never be known because Phil Haney shockingly revealed to the US Congress and media that he was ordered by the Obama-Clinton Regime to destroy all information linking US intelligence agencies to Islamic terrorists before President Trump took office—and with Haney being recently in contact with DHS officials about a possible return to the agency, as well has his also engaged to be married, it leaves no doubt that he was assassinated—as unlike other normal nations in the civilized world, these still apparently Hillary Clinton controlled Deep State monsters prefer to throw their feared state crime witnesses against them, like Olesya Krasilova and Julian Assange, into prisons to rot—or just outright murder them like Phil Haney and Jeffrey Epstein.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/ole26.jpg

February 23, 2020 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green(1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

“KatyDid” Ends Democrat Reign Of Terror As Impeachment Enters “Game Over” Phase

The Dangerous Evil Boredom Leading America To Ruin

Trump Throws Leftists Into Chaos After Committing Crimestop Thought Offense

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4. Feb 9, 2020 9:07am

1. https://cdn-assets.faireconomy.media...ar392875_2.gif BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 6,572 Posts | Online Now

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2020/...idence-in.html

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 09, 2020


Counterfeit and Genuine Confidence in Trading

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CAA4L52HH...200/Flower.jpg

Here's an observation I've made regarding developing traders I work with on a regular basis at SMB. Because I've worked with them from the very start of their trading in most cases, I can clearly see what has led to their success and what hasn't.

The less successful ones start with stated confidence and want to bring what they know to trading.

The more successful ones start with an awareness of what they don't know and bring an open mind to trading.

The less successful ones are under capitalized and feel a need to become profitable quickly.

The more successful ones try different markets, time frames, and trading styles, make lots of mistakes, and gradually figure out what they understand and do well.

The less successful ones engage in minimal reviews of their trading and set very broad goals. They do not keep statistics on their trading to monitor whether their goals are being met.

The more successful ones review their trades daily in great detail, actually re-viewing the trades made and how those could have been done better. They use statistics on their trading to hold themselves accountable for their goals.

The less successful ones look to psychology to help their trading, as they get frustrated when they don't make money.

The more successful ones use their best trading to help their psychology.

The less successful ones talk about confidence in terms of the "setups" they are trading.

The more successful ones ground their confidence in their learning and trading processes.

The less successful ones develop a counterfeit sense of confidence based on how they have performed recently.

The more successful ones develop genuine confidence based upon the time and effort placed in the learning process.

Perhaps I can provide an example. One trader sent me his monthly review of his trading. It was two pages, had no specific reviews of trades, had no detailed statistics on his trading, and finished with a general goal to be more selective in the taking of trades. Another trader sent a review for the same month. It ran over 200 pages. It detailed every trade made, what was done well, and what could have been done better. The first trader meets with me occasionally. The second one has been meeting with me every week, focusing on the most recent lessons learned and improvements made. The first trader is looking to make money. The second trader is like the flower: just blooming.

My son Macrae and I have been taking lessons in archery. It's an interesting sport; one I've never given much thought to. A big part of success is learning the correct form for each phase of the shooting process and then replicating that form with precision. There are adjustments to be made when changing distance, changing targets, etc., but the key to success lies in unusual self-control. Psychology is important to archery performance, particularly in stilling the mind and staying focused on the target. But psychology cannot substitute for good form and continuous learning and practice.

So it is in the trading world.
Further Reading:

The Motivations of Successful Traders

TraderFeed Home Page and Index
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Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.at 6:27 AM

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4. Feb 10, 2020 1:57pm

1. thickpipe
2. | Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Member | 2 Posts

Quoting BenjaminIs
{quote} Good morning thickpipe The best way to start to learn is to open a $50,000 US dollars demo account with FXCM UK and there is no cost to do that. When that is done then email me your password and post your username here. I will then log onto your account and set it up so we then both trade using the same Forex trading platform. Then I can teach you while you demo trade without fear or greed or EGO as you learn my method of trading. You also trade with the minimum amount of capital that does not cause you to blow up your small real funds account...
Thank you BenjaminIs,
I will do as you recommended, thank you for taking the time to answer me. I look forward to work together, keep up the good work.
Best regards,