INCREDIBLE !!!
I just started reaching him and look what he has done today.
AMAZING FOREX TRADING - BRAVO !!!
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https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...0b_normal.jpegGuy Adami
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Emblem (above) for ANTIFA-Canada
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When deranged leftist American teachers begin brainwashing their students to hate President Donald Trump (above)…
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…they shouldn’t be surprised when they leave school to become crazed anti-fascist terrorists trying to kill teenagers for flying Trump flags on their bicycles like Kyren Gregory Perry-Jones (above left) and Cailyn Marie Smith (above right).
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“… several participants observed that equity, corporate debt, and CRE valuations were elevated and drew attention to high levels of corporate indebtedness and weak underwriting standards in leveraged loan markets. Some participants expressed the concern that financial imbalances-including overvaluation and excessive indebtedness-could amplify an adverse shock to the economy …”
“The U.S., like Japan, is caught in an ongoing ‘liquidity trap’ where maintaining ultra-low interest rates are the key to sustaining an economic pulse. The unintended consequence of such actions, as we are witnessing in the U.S. currently, is the battle with deflationary pressures. The lower interest rates go – the less economic return that can be generated. An ultra-low interest rate environment, contrary to mainstream thought, has a negative impact on making productive investments, and risk begins to outweigh the potential return.
“Global growth continues to slow and the negative impact on demand and the broad supply interruptions will likely expose the weakness of the foundation and trajectory of worldwide economic growth. This is particularly dangerous as the monetary ammunition has basically been used up.
As we have observed, monetary growth (and QE) can mechanically elevate and inflate the equity markets. For example, now in the U.S. market, basic theory is that in practice a side effect is that via the ‘repo’ market it is turned into leveraged trades into the equity markets. But, again, authorities are running out of bullets and have begun to question the efficacy of monetary largess.“Simulations of the FRB/US model of a severe recession suggest that large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate should be able to provide enough additional accommodation to fully compensate for a more limited [ability] to cut short-term interest rates in most, but probably not all, circumstances.”
In other words, the Fed is already factoring in a scenario in which a shock to the economy leads to additional QE of either $2 trillion, or in a worst case scenario, $4 trillion, effectively doubling the current size of the Fed’s balance sheet.
So, 2-years ago David lays out the plan, and on Wednesday, the Fed reiterates that plan.
Does the Fed see a recession on the horizon? Is this why there are concerns about valuations?
Maybe.
But there is a problem with the entire analysis. The effectiveness of QE, and zero interest rates, is based on the point at which you apply these measures.
In 2008, when the Fed launched into their “accommodative policy” emergency strategy to bail out the financial markets, the Fed’s balance sheet was running at $915 Billion. The Fed Funds rate was at 4.2%.
ROHEDGaily recap featuring a curated list of must-r
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If the market fell into a recession tomorrow, the Fed would be starting with a $4.2 Trillion balance sheet with interest rates 3% lower than they were in 2009. In other words, the ability of the Fed to ‘bail out’ the markets today, is much more limited than it was in 2008.”
But there is more to the story than just the Fed’s balance sheet and funds rate. The entire backdrop is completely reversed. The table below compares a variety of financial and economic factors from 2009 to present.
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Importantly, QE, and rate reductions, have the MOST effect when the economy, markets, and investors are extremely negative.
In other words, there is nowhere to go but up.
Such was the case in 2009. Not today.
This suggests that the Fed’s ability to stem the decline of the next recession, or offset a financial shock to the economy from falling asset prices, may be much more limited than the Fed, and most investors, currently believe.
Summary
It has taken a massive amount of interventions by Central Banks to keep economies afloat globally over the last decade, and there is rising evidence that growth is beginning to decelerate.
Furthermore, we have much more akin with Japan than many would like to believe.
The lynchpin to Japan, and the U.S., remains demographics and interest rates. As the aging population grows becoming a net drag on “savings,” the dependency on the “social welfare net” will continue to expand. The “pension problem” is only the tip of the iceberg.
While another $2-4 Trillion in QE might indeed be successful in keeping the bubble inflated for a while longer, there is a limit to the ability to continue pulling forward future consumption to stimulate economic activity. In other words, there are only so many autos, houses, etc., which can be purchased within a given cycle. There is evidence the cycle peak has been reached.
If the effectiveness of rate reductions and QE are diminished due to the reasons detailed herein, the subsequent destruction to the “wealth effect” will be larger than currently imagined. The Fed’s biggest fear is finding themselves powerless to offset the negative impacts of the next recession.
If more “QE” works, great.
But as investors, with our retirement savings at risk, what if it doesn’t.
DislikedAre you talking about your Account# 1001381204 opened on December 17th, POST# 7416, BUT You opened with $50,000., and NOW your balance/Equity is $43130.00. AM I missing something???Ignored
This will be my last post for the next few hours. There is plenty of material for you to review.
Here is my POST 420 of this Thread !!!
And now for the last part of my answer to the excellent question of TooSlow.
Comments from Benjaminis: EVERYONE reading this carefully NOW has an EDGE if you use this KNOWLEDGE.
Knowledge is Power only if you use it and act upon it. For myself knowing this then I can prepare for the changes in values of all the Asset Classes and watch as the MONEY FLOWS from one to another and what the change in one does to the other. This is why I have said that the MOST IMPORTANT FUNDAMENTAL FACTS are not the fundamentals themselves or the use only of technical indicators or supply and demand although they all help they cannot SET THE TREND so knowing the trend you have your EDGE. It is not all that difficult to understand.
Each day we ask ourselves , "Do We Have Risk On today or Risk Off" ? The answer to that question gives us the direction to start although a fundamental new FACT can change the direction in seconds such as a Brexit or a FED Rate hike or NFP or any number of daily facts, expected or unexpected.
Then we come to my associated topic , Risk Management. The strategy that I have developed over the last 5 years always works with the exception being the Forex Trader themselves. Unless you have the desire and the interest and the DISCIPLINE to control your FEAR and your Greed you will lose. Of course since the MARKET is always right 100% of the time, unless you have complete control of your EGO for sure you will wipe out your account.
That is why I have not developed too many bad trading habits because I learned my trade over three years only trading demo funds of $50,000 US.
When I started real Forex trading with real funds , I went out and raised $250,000 US from a number of clients and traded their funds using LPOA. (Limited Power of Attorney).
My first large account during October 2007 was for $100,000 US and in the first 35 days of my Forex trading for a Hong Kong corporation I earned for my client $19,000 Plus US Dollars. My performance fee was 20% of the Net Profits.
I traded through the Financial Meltdown of 2008 when EUR/USD after reaching an all time HIGH around 1.60 within months broke below 1.20 and I took major losses for this same client and that was the day during 2008 that I realized that as good a Forex trader that I was, unless I had a FOOLPROOF Risk Management Method this could and would happen to my clients in the FUTURE.
Now that cannot happen ever again as long as I maintain my DISCIPLINE and my desire to trade Forex and have fun.
I offer anyone here this opportunity to learn at no cost to you other than your time and effort. There are still 3 spaces available.
This information comes from post 117 of December 13, 2016 on page 6 of my thread on Money Flow and Risk Management !!!
My congratulations go to DavidRP who is the first Forex Factory trader that has opened his FXCM UK Demo Account.
I have logged into his account since as requested he has emailed to [email protected] his User Login and Password.
I now have organized for DavidRP the 16 symbols that I use on the FXCM UK Demo trading platform. DavidRP now has $50,000 US Dollars to trade with. I will show here what the 16 symbols that are used and in the order that they are on the platform in blocks of 6 symbols.
EUR/USD EUR/JPY USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CNH USD/CHF
EUR/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD USDOLLAR XAU/USD XAG/USD
US30 NAS100 SPX500 COPPER UKOIL BUND
You can all see that by having these 16 pairs you have an excellent view of the Money Flow between Asset Classes.
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Russian linguist Olesya Krasilova (above) thrown into Spanish prison after talking with US intelligence expert Phil Haney on 15 February 2020…
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…he is assassinated shortly later on 21 February 2020.
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SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 09, 2020
Counterfeit and Genuine Confidence in Trading
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Here's an observation I've made regarding developing traders I work with on a regular basis at SMB. Because I've worked with them from the very start of their trading in most cases, I can clearly see what has led to their success and what hasn't.
The less successful ones start with stated confidence and want to bring what they know to trading.
The more successful ones start with an awareness of what they don't know and bring an open mind to trading.
The less successful ones are under capitalized and feel a need to become profitable quickly.
The more successful ones try different markets, time frames, and trading styles, make lots of mistakes, and gradually figure out what they understand and do well.
The less successful ones engage in minimal reviews of their trading and set very broad goals. They do not keep statistics on their trading to monitor whether their goals are being met.
The more successful ones review their trades daily in great detail, actually re-viewing the trades made and how those could have been done better. They use statistics on their trading to hold themselves accountable for their goals.
The less successful ones look to psychology to help their trading, as they get frustrated when they don't make money.
The more successful ones use their best trading to help their psychology.
The less successful ones talk about confidence in terms of the "setups" they are trading.
The more successful ones ground their confidence in their learning and trading processes.
The less successful ones develop a counterfeit sense of confidence based on how they have performed recently.
The more successful ones develop genuine confidence based upon the time and effort placed in the learning process.
Perhaps I can provide an example. One trader sent me his monthly review of his trading. It was two pages, had no specific reviews of trades, had no detailed statistics on his trading, and finished with a general goal to be more selective in the taking of trades. Another trader sent a review for the same month. It ran over 200 pages. It detailed every trade made, what was done well, and what could have been done better. The first trader meets with me occasionally. The second one has been meeting with me every week, focusing on the most recent lessons learned and improvements made. The first trader is looking to make money. The second trader is like the flower: just blooming.
My son Macrae and I have been taking lessons in archery. It's an interesting sport; one I've never given much thought to. A big part of success is learning the correct form for each phase of the shooting process and then replicating that form with precision. There are adjustments to be made when changing distance, changing targets, etc., but the key to success lies in unusual self-control. Psychology is important to archery performance, particularly in stilling the mind and staying focused on the target. But psychology cannot substitute for good form and continuous learning and practice.
So it is in the trading world.
Further Reading:
The Motivations of Successful Traders
TraderFeed Home Page and Index
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Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.at 6:27 AM
Quoting BenjaminIs
{quote} Good morning thickpipe The best way to start to learn is to open a $50,000 US dollars demo account with FXCM UK and there is no cost to do that. When that is done then email me your password and post your username here. I will then log onto your account and set it up so we then both trade using the same Forex trading platform. Then I can teach you while you demo trade without fear or greed or EGO as you learn my method of trading. You also trade with the minimum amount of capital that does not cause you to blow up your small real funds account...
Thank you BenjaminIs,
I will do as you recommended, thank you for taking the time to answer me. I look forward to work together, keep up the good work.
Best regards,