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Pivot Trading

  • #34,781
  • Feb 20, 2020 7:00am Feb 20, 2020 7:00am
Never seen Euro this dead. 10pip range basically whole week
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,782
  • Feb 20, 2020 7:08am Feb 20, 2020 7:08am
Both the FOMC and ECB have had zero effect on the markets!
  • #34,783
  • Feb 20, 2020 7:12am Feb 20, 2020 7:12am
Quoting russian30
Both the FOMC and ECB have had zero effect on the markets!
Yen effectively shut everything up.If it drops will force others to follow.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,784
  • Feb 20, 2020 7:43am Feb 20, 2020 7:43am
Manufacturing Green number is basically pre virus data. Its lagging by 1month.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,785
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:01am Feb 20, 2020 8:01am
What is happening with the Yen looks like a BOJ currency intervention: selling the yen to help keep Japanese exports more competitive.

When we look at the exportnumbers:

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So my question is: Could we have seen this coming?
May the Force be with you.
  • #34,786
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:06am Feb 20, 2020 8:06am
Closed EGFinally got my margin back
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,787
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:08am Feb 20, 2020 8:08am
AC long 4lots at 8782
back to 2009 lows.That's extreme
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,788
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:15am Feb 20, 2020 8:15am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Yen skews everything hence maybe wait a little longer to NY open They could dump more lower EU is like compressed energy ready to recoil.We'll see how it goes ECB IMO Pound should decline further because of Trade talks.Looks like Euro ministers are not giving Boris easy path. "You got to punish UK to set an example for others" {image}
probably.
I am holding short GU for about 300 pips below against me.
so, I opened a hedge long same size, in order to stop loses, and start cut on my old trade .
if drop more, that is better for me. I will hold my hedge on more realistic price
thank you Davit.
  • #34,789
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:18am Feb 20, 2020 8:18am
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} probably. I am holding short GU for about 300 pips below against me. so, I opened a hedge long same size, in order to stop loses, and start cut on my old trade . if drop more, that is better for me. I will hold my hedge on more realistic price thank you Davit.
Doing that on G sucks lot of margin.Basically making you handicapped. How can you hedge? US does not allow it
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,790
  • Edited 8:51am Feb 20, 2020 8:21am | Edited 8:51am
We are not yet out of the risk-off.
today I realized that it is mixed. half to half.
we have this thing about japanese funds that dump the yen,
I was still looking for another reason for this yen on that lvl, out of step with the coronavirus
I believe it was because of yields, according i see on this chart below
No more correlations between U.S. yields and the yen ? if so, lets see whether the yen will regain its safe-haven status
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AUD. no change today in terms of rates perspective.
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  • #34,791
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:26am Feb 20, 2020 8:26am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Doing that on G sucks lot of margin.Basically making you handicapped. How can you hedge? US does not allow it
i have Oanda main account, and I have an Oanda sub-account. so, I manage funds from each other
  • #34,792
  • Feb 20, 2020 9:38am Feb 20, 2020 9:38am
Quoting Davit
From one of the comments "WSJ tells a story of container ships leaving China 10% full with many ships simply cancelling trips with worse ahead. The global supply chain is in trouble for a while as fear runs rampant. Our stores will see empty shelves this spring. Speaking of which, went into the local Ace Hardware store. One full isle had nothing but storage bins on the shelves where spring goods should have been. Once the Christmas tree stuff was removed there was nothing to replace it. Never seen anything like that. I know the owner personally...
Amazing! I read the exact same article this morning, as a matter of fact I was thinking of posting it on the thread. It has some very fundamental and rational points to it, and echos what I stated here a few weeks ago. The supply chain runs on "Just in Time" so don't be surprised to start seeing blank spaces on the shelves soon. Now you're starting to see it transpire, and perhaps as the shelves empty a little there will be less items to throw on sale in the flyer because the stores don't have them to sell, however that doesn't mean that the irrational stock market or US dollar will heel and obey immediately. I was wrong on my USD short yesterday and I'm in draw down on it. The move itself is kind of irrational. I'm wondering if the Chinese were behind the big move and perhaps swapped Yen for more US Treasuries? On my volume indicator there was a big spike when the initial surge in price took place and then there were complete blank spots as the price moved higher and very little volume at these current levels. I've been trading for 39 years now and this is some of the weirdest stuff I've seen. US Dollar Up, Markets Up, Gold Up, Oil starting to climb once again yet demand for air travel and shipping is way down. Measured levels getting blown out, parabolic moves, look at the irrational Tesla stock a couple of months ago it was down to $178 and now over $900 in a parabolic move on nothing. Stock markets have been soaring higher and higher yet worldwide shipping is on a massive decline. Here's a chart of the Baltic Dry Index. If the economies are doing so great, why is worldwide shipping in the toilet and been on a steady decline since last September?
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Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #34,793
  • Feb 20, 2020 9:44am Feb 20, 2020 9:44am
Quoting Romanov102
{quote} Amazing! I read the exact same article this morning, as a matter of fact I was thinking of posting it on the thread. It has some very fundamental and rational points to it, and echos what I stated here a few weeks ago. The supply chain runs on "Just in Time" so don't be surprised to start seeing blank spaces on the shelves soon. Now you're starting to see it transpire, and perhaps as the shelves empty a little there will be less items to throw on sale in the flyer because the stores don't have them to sell, however that doesn't mean that...
USD will decline significantly once real effects hit home.Feds will start cutting just to keep USD competitive.All central banks except FEds are playing how can get their currencies lower.Feds have to wake up before too late
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,794
  • Feb 20, 2020 12:27pm Feb 20, 2020 12:27pm
And the winner is: Japan!!!

Low JPY means high Exports. This is what will happen. Good for Japan...
Best regards,
Renko
  • #34,795
  • Feb 20, 2020 1:31pm Feb 20, 2020 1:31pm
I did not trade the EUR/JPY or the CAD/JPY but I see that they mirrored each other at least this week.
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #34,796
  • Feb 20, 2020 4:05pm Feb 20, 2020 4:05pm
Quoting Davit
AC long 4lots at 8782 back to 2009 lows.That's extreme {image}
Joining you at 8770. Expecting AU to go up tomorrow...and bad CAD news, so AC could be double fueled up, aud correction and negative cad.

Targetting 100 pips, for now.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #34,797
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:30pm Feb 20, 2020 8:30pm
GA worth watching
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,798
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:36pm Feb 20, 2020 8:36pm
I think same forces BOJ pushed Yen up are pushing AUD down.
Every trend ends with a spike.Push hit cluster of stops get filled.

Short EA good size 6359
in immediate profit.That's nice
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,799
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:42pm Feb 20, 2020 8:42pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Joining you at 8770. Expecting AU to go up tomorrow...and bad CAD news, so AC could be double fueled up, aud correction and negative cad. Targetting 100 pips, for now.
Not great entries on my part but that's always said after the fact.. Dont have the ability to see the future...
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,800
  • Feb 20, 2020 9:41pm Feb 20, 2020 9:41pm
Where is everyone! Did you guys blow your accounts?Figures the fittest survives!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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