Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb20...awash2-20.html

The World Is Awash in Oil, False Assurances, Magical Thinking and Complacency as Global Demand Careens Toward a Cliff
February 18, 2020


This collapse of price will manifest in all sorts of markets that are based on debt-funded purchases of desires rather than a warily prudent priority on needs.


Since markets are supposed to discover the price of excesses and scarcities, it's a mystery why everything that is in oversupply is still grossly overpriced as global demand slides off a cliff: oil, semiconductors, Uber rides, AirBNB listings and many other risk-on / global growth stories are still priced as if pre-Covid-19 demand was still guaranteed.


Punters are still buying semiconductor stocks based on out-of-touch projections that are the equivalent to counting the number of fairies on the head of a pin, ignoring the fundamental reality that very few people actually need a new mobile phone, vehicle, laptop, refrigerator, etc.


It boils down to confidence and certainty. People pursue what they desire but don't need when they're brimming with confidence in the future, bolstered by an animal-spirits euphoria that their income and wealth will continue rising--a sense of certainty anchored by a belief that their economic world is essentially without risk.


When confidence dissipates and is replaced by fear and uncertainty, desires lose their luster and needs take precedence. When you're afraid of getting a deadly virus or losing your livelihood, status symbols and frivolous spending no longer top the agenda.


Yet the entire risk-on / global growth story is based entirely on desires not needs. The vast majority of demand isn't for a pressing need, it's for euphoric aspirational consumption, spending intended to make the buyer larger than they really are, in their own self-image and in the image they present to the world in the brands they display, the cafes they dine in, etc. etc.


Since the world is awash in false assurances, magical thinking and complacency, we might ask: what's the market value of these disconnected-from-reality fantasies? There's no pricing mechanism for such intangibles, of course, but should counting the number of fairies on the head of a pin give way to a new appreciation of risk and a pervasive awareness of uncertainty, then global demand will fall off a cliff as desires are set aside indefinitely.


In a world of bogus projections and rigged statistics, plunging demand for oil is one of the few reality-based measures available. One of the games being played is whenever a reality-based measure is discovered--electricity consumption, satellite images of empty parking lots, etc.--authorities immediately limit access to the measures and/or unleash a tsunami of counter-narratives to discredit the real-world evidence that global demand is cratering.


Since oil is the master resource for the industrialized, interconnected global economy, it's tough to argue that declining consumption of oil doesn't matter.

When demand craters, producers must restrict supply or price will crater, too. The problem with oil and everything else that's now in over-supply / over-production is that producers can't survive either a sustained drop in price or a sustained drop in production. Since both are equally fatal, producers have every incentive to keep producing and hope that somebody else lowers their production to keep prices high.

Alas, no producer is willing to fall on their sword to keep prices unnaturally elevated. And so excess production continues apace until price collapses.
This collapse of price will manifest in all sorts of markets that are based on debt-funded purchases of desires rather than a warily prudent priority on needs.
https://www.oftwominds.com/photos201...effect8-16.gif


My COVID-19 Pandemic Posts



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https://goldswitzerland.com/the-worl...stment-secret/

THE WORLD’S BEST KEPT INVESTMENT SECRET


February 20, 2020

by Egon von Greyerz
There is a secret investment that virtually no investors are aware of. This is an investment that despite government manipulation and being besmirched by MSM still has outperformed all asset classes in this century. But it is not just an investment, it is the best hedge that anyone can buy against:

1. A failure of the financial system
2. Central bank debasement of fiat money
3. Stock market crashes
4. Credit market failures
5. Property bubbles
6. Collapse of art or other inflated assets like vintage cars

This is an asset that has gone up 5-6x in most currencies and more in weaker currencies since 1999. And in the last half century it has gone up 45x.
This asset costs almost nothing to hold and can be held virtually risk free outside the banking system.


This asset has some wonderful attributes:

1. No counterparty risk
2. No one’s liability
3. Inflation hedge
4. Crisis hedge
5. Only currency that has survived in history

It is an asset that has a limited supply and an increase in demand cannot be met by more production but only by higher prices.

THIS ASSET IS A HEDGE AGAINST IRRESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENTS
There are periods when monetary policies are sound and when the price of this asset is stable. But other times, like in the last 100 years, when credit expansion and money printing have been rampant, this asset appreciates significantly measured in paper money. In real terms this asset doesn’t go up in price. It just maintains stable purchasing power. But measured in paper or fiat money, the asset appreciates significantly as central banks destroy the value of paper money by printing unlimited amounts.

The best time to buy an asset is when it is unloved and undervalued. Currently this asset is at an all time low, compared to the amount of credit creation. And since over time this asset will always react to increases in money supply and debasement of currencies, it is likely in the next few years to correct the major undervaluation.

MONEY PRINTING BONANZA WILL PROPEL THE ASSET
But there is more to it. Because governments have in the last few months started the biggest money printing bonanza in history. The continued Repos by the Fed and monthly QE of $60 billion plus, EUR20 billion QE by the ECB is just the beginning. The BOJ in Japan is printing $700 billion annually and the PBOC in China is injecting $100s of billions to alleviate the effects of the Coronavirus.

What is absolutely guaranteed is that we have only seen the beginnings of a massive global QE programme. As economies around the world slow down, deficits increase and the financial system comes under more pressure, the floodgates will open up totally.

So we are soon starting the acceleration phase of currency debasement which will further propel the “secret” investment I discuss above.

LESS THAN 0.5% OF INVESTORS KNOW THAT THE ASSET IS GOLD
For readers of my articles who belong to the less than 0.5% of investors who buy this asset, it is obviously not a secret that I am talking about gold. But the other 99.5% have not yet discovered gold or other precious metals like silver and platinum which are also massively undervalued.

Both technically and fundamentally, the metals are now poised for sustained uptrends that could see price rises of 10x or more. A major part of the rise will be price gains in real terms but as inflation catches hold, eventually leading to hyperinflation, we could see much higher prices in nominal terms.

The primary reason for buying gold is not to make money but to preserve wealth. As the biggest asset destruction period in history takes hold, most of the artificial wealth that has been created in the last 100 years and especially in the last 50 years, will implode. Since the world is totally unprepared for this, it will not only lead to panic in markets but also breakdowns in social structures.

Technically, virtually all governments will default but they won’t admit it of course. Instead, they will continue to print worthless money, combined with debt moratoria. Many will introduce a new currency like crypto dollars or crypto euros to defuse the situation. But since all they will do is to create another form of fake money, markets will only fall for this trick momentarily.

GOLD IS IN A 20 YEAR BULL MARKET
How 99.5% of all investors can have avoided a 20 year bull market in gold is mind-boggling. The two charts below tell the story.
Gold in Euros started the bull run in 1999 at EUR 285. As the green bars in the chart show, gold then went up for 13 straight years to a high of EUR 1,384 in 2012 – a five fold increase. Thereafter gold in euros had a one year correction in 2013 which was vicious. After 2013 gold has gone up for 7 years with a couple of sideways years.

Today gold in euros is at new highs above the 2011-2 highs. Gold has made new highs in all currencies except the US dollar and Swiss franc. In dollars, gold went up for 10 straight years from $254 in 2001 to a high of $1,920 in 2011. Gold then corrected for three years but has now been in an uptrend for five years. The $1,920 high is not an important level. Since gold has made new highs in virtually every currency, the $1,920 level will not represent any significant resistance. I would be surprised if gold doesn’t break the $2,000 level in 2020 as the dollar declines.

http://goldswitzerland.com/wp-conten...20/02/bull.jpg

STOCKS AT THE END OF A MULTI CENTURY BULL MARKET
Stocks are finishing a move of historical importance. It could be the end of a Grand Supercycle from the 1700s. If that is the case, the fall in coming years will be greater and longer than the 90% crash in the Dow 1929-32. Most markets worldwide are in a similar position. As always at the end of major moves, we could see a final euphoric rise which would take the Dow to 30,000 and the Nasdaq to 10,000. But risk is now at an absolute maximum, so to try to grab the last few pennies out of a 3 century bull market would be extremely foolhardy.

As regards the bond markets and interest rates, the general consensus it that the US will have to reduce their rates significantly to stimulate a faltering economy and stock market. In my view it could be extremely dangerous to bet on lower rates and higher bond prices.
The contrarian position has a very good chance of being the winning one.

INTEREST RATES ARE BOTTOMING
The 35 year interest cycle peaked in 1981 and bottomed in 2016 as the chart of the US 10 year Treasury Note below shows. The current yield of 1.59% is not far from the low but the recent fall in rates has not been confirmed by momentum indicators. Thus the chart indicates a bullish divergence and therefore the potential of rates going up from here. Our proprietary cycle indicators confirm that move.

http://goldswitzerland.com/wp-conten...as-600x420.jpg

But whether rates go up from here or slightly later is of less importance. What is certain is that central banks will lose control of interest rates as bond markets collapse and yields surge when money printing takes off in earnest. The current belief in flight to “safety” by holding government bonds is absolutely ludicrous. At some point in the next year or so, investors will exit bonds at any price. Nobody will want to hold a toxic instrument issued by a bankrupt government who can neither afford to pay the interest or the capital without issuing more worthless bonds.

INVESTORS HAVE A BINARY CHOICE
So there we have it. Investors have a binary choice. Either they stay in the conventional and “safe” bubble assets of stocks, bonds and property and lose it all. And when I say all, I mean at least 90-95% in real terms which is against gold.

Or alternatively investors can save themselves from disaster by owning physical gold and some silver.
Sadly, the majority will take the wrong current and “lose their ventures”. (from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar)


Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

Matterhorn Asset Management’s global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. Matterhorn Asset Management is pleased to deliver a unique and exceptional service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 70 countries.

GoldSwitzerland.com
Contact Us

Articles may be republished if full credits are given with a link to GoldSwitzerland.com.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-glo...-idUKKBN20E03N

"Dollar tramples yen and everything in its path"

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index3134.htm

February 20, 2020

“He Stole Our Candy” Crying Democrats Know End Is Near As Trump Revenge Onslaught Accelerates

By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A fascinating new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today noting President Putin’s refusal to grant the newly-appointed government any time for warming up, states that even though he further once again thanked the United States for its help in stopping a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg, his concerns about the US remain high after provocative and dangerous incidents such as just occurred in Syria when an American armored vehicle attempted to push a Russian military scout vehicle off an open roadway—a dangerous provocation occurring at the same time America’s main national security publication The National Interest correctly warned that just one of Russia’s three active Borei-Class Submarines “could render the United States uninhabitable”—but are such things to be expected from a nation consuming itself from within by blind rage and hatred—the latest example being the firestorm erupting after President Donald Trump appointed US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell to be his new Acting Director of National Intelligence yesterday—an actually normal such appointment as Ambassador Grenell has vast government experience—is loyal to Trump—has been excited about the wave of conservatism that has hit Europe to destroy leftist ideologies—plays rough like Trump, but keeps a low profile on social media—and is an openly gay cancer survivor who modestly describes himself as: “I’m stronger after cancer, my dog runs my life, an imperfect follower of Christ”—the latter of which has socialist Democrats and their leftist media lapdogs crying like children who’ve had their candy stolen from them, as this appointment destroys their lying narrative that Trump hates gay people—and because Trump stole their “candy”, sees top Democrat lawmakers calling Ambassador Grenell’s appointment “an outrage”—as well as the leftist media calling it such things as “a national disgrace” and “an alarming choice”. [Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/jen21.jpg

According to this report, as the Acting Director of National Intelligence, newly appointed Ambassador Grenell will serve as head of the seventeen-member United States Intelligence Community while directing and overseeing the entire National Intelligence Program for America—the exact same intelligence apparatus, while under the control of President Obama, which published a made-up fairy tale screed titled “Background to “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections”: The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution” on 6 January 2017, just 14-days prior to when President Trump was sworn into office on 20 January 2017—and upon its publishing, formed the basis for repeated attempts to overthrow Trump—all of which ended in failure and are now the subject of a vast criminal investigation being conducted by feared US Attorney John Durham—and in the hours just prior to Trump’s appointment announcement yesterday, saw both Grenell and Durham being aided in this criminal investigation by a US Federal Court in Washington that ruled the Office of the Director of National Intelligence properly withheld certain documents relating to Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election.


Being furiously sought after by both socialist Democrat lawmakers and their leftist media lapdogs from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence now under the control of Ambassador Grenell, this report explains, is all of the top-secret US intelligence files related to Wikileaks leader Julian Assange—who to this day steadfastly holds to the truth that the Russian government wasn’t his source for the Clinton-Podesta emails—but whose true suspected leaker of these emails remains Democrat Party National Committee computer staffer Seth Rich—whose assassination remains unsolved to this day—saw Wikileaks posting a reward for the finding of Rich’s assassin—and whose truth about proves beyond all doubt that Obama’s intelligence screed published on 6 January 2017 was a document whose sole purpose of was to overthrow the legitimately elected President of the United States.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/jen22.jpg

Most interesting to note about yesterday’s US Federal Court ruling protecting the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from having to release any of its top-secret files on Julian Assange, this report continues, is that it was near immediately followed by hundreds of leftist media articles claiming that President Trump promised to pardon Assange if he denied Russia leaked emails of his 2016 election rival’s campaign—a claim quickly denied by Assange's lawyer, who said it was him that informed Trump’s former chief of staff General John Kelly that Assange would provide information about the purloined DNC emails in exchange for a pardon, but never heard back from the White House—that itself was grimly followed 6-hours later with the news that an inmate was murdered in Belmarsh Jail where Assange is being held—and in response to this not-so-subtle message murder, saw UK Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell rushing to Belmarsh Jail and becoming the first British lawmaker to visit Assange.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/jen23.jpg

With President Trump having to wend his way through the largest US government led criminal conspiracy witnessed in America since the Deep State public execution of President John Kennedy in 1963, this report details, the path he has chosen to walk through this deadly minefield on was first laid down in the 16th Century by Italian political mastermind Niccolò Machiavelli—whose tactics of cunning and duplicity created the political philosophy “Machiavellianism” made infamous for its recommending that rulers under siege be ready to act in unscrupulous ways, such as resorting to fraud and treachery if need be, as well as eliminating political opponents—or put in its most simplest terms, under siege leaders must become as ruthless as their adversaries if they hope to survive.
In pure Machiavellian fashion, therefore, this report concludes, President Trump sprang from his impeachment acquittal to order an FBI raid on a business linked to James Biden, who is the brother of impeachment centerpiece former Obama Vice President Joe Biden—followed by Trump firing the impeachment witnesses against him—a firing spree of everyone involved in this impeachment scam that yesterday saw Trump ousting from power Under Secretary of Defense for Policy John Rood—while simultaneously occurring with this firing spree, has seen Trump’s team targeting for total destruction “anyone and everyone involved in the Russia probe”—most specially those involved in the Mueller investigation witch hunt scam, whom Trump showed his utter and complete disdain for, and sent an unmistakeable message to by his freeing from prison one of their most prized political prisoners who wouldn’t bow down to Obama, former Democrat Party Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich—all which was followed yesterday by the top lawyer who consulted the Democrats on their sham impeachment leaving his post and fleeing Washington, as well as anti-Trump wannabe impeachment witness John Bolton suddenly changing his tune and denouncing the House’s impeachment proceedings against Trump as ”grossly partisan” and saying his testimony would not have changed Trump’s acquittal in the Senate—as Bolton of all people knows that when Trump ordered Attorney General William Barr to “clean house at the Justice Department” he meant it—an order issued by a President Trump who full well knows that the Constitution does not create a wall of separation between him and the Justice Department—and with everyone knowing that this is just the beginning of what’s to come—it puts into even sharper relief the warning issued by Trump confidant, and top Fox News host Sean Hannity, who gravely told the American people on his nationwide television programme this week: “I Feel There’s Something So Big in Play – The Deep State Knows It… It’s Going to Shock the Conscience of the Nation”.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/jen24.jpg

February 20, 2020 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green(1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

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