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Pivot Trading

  • #34,681
  • Feb 17, 2020 10:12am Feb 17, 2020 10:12am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Lots of key data on GBP this week and Pound tends to overreact either pro or con news.Considering EG is at monthly bottom I am holding. I suspect Pound will decline by weeks close.Only "good" news was minister resignation and few green data but UK is not immune from virus effects or EU trading issues.
LET´s see German business sentiment indicator tomorrow and flash purchasing managers indexes on Friday for further evidence on the state of the euro zone economy.
that alert you gave to Benny, is for me too
"Dont trade same pair on multiple pairs"
I need distribute it. I am long AUD too much
  • #34,682
  • Feb 17, 2020 11:47am Feb 17, 2020 11:47am
Davit , YES , you are correct , my bad , the USD is OVERBOUGHT , which is actually what I meant to write. Thank you for the correction.
Regards ,
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #34,683
  • Edited 12:10pm Feb 17, 2020 11:56am | Edited 12:10pm
closed GC at 7205 happy with it.Would of loaded on this but EG sucked too much margin.In retrospect it was not a good trade now stuck with negative swap.
If I can get out of EG by friday with reasonable profit I would be pleased.Not worth holding too long.This is trading.Things often dont go the way you imagined.(minister resignation surprise)
We deal with it and move on to next trade. Its all probabilities anyway.
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,684
  • Feb 17, 2020 12:02pm Feb 17, 2020 12:02pm
AC should be on your "watch list"
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,685
  • Edited 12:35pm Feb 17, 2020 12:15pm | Edited 12:35pm
Its obvious now without data GU wont break 30 south.We need negative data on GBP or positive data on Euro.As it stands today expect monotone small range all day long.
Which leads me to reiterate Price has nothing to do with Oscillators or MA's.Its an illusion created by mostly retail trader's minds.
CAD gaining...why? Crude is gaining! CAD is not gaining because market makers decided it hit some moving average therefore they decided to buy it and to think that is oxymoronic.
Constant debate on TDI green crossing red on popular thread is basically based on faulty logic.Markets DON'T care!which line crossed another line!There is no EDGE here.

You need to understand what moves price to begin with once understood correctly everything else falls in right place.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,686
  • Feb 17, 2020 12:31pm Feb 17, 2020 12:31pm
Don't buy EU now.You'll be stack with negative swap and it could drop below 8
PA is lifeless on bull side.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,687
  • Feb 17, 2020 12:53pm Feb 17, 2020 12:53pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
I believe I can catch a decent swing up on EG. Price at heavy support. Of course market can prove me wrong, as always. Ordinarily I don't like to post trades live but this one is almost a B+ set up for me. {image} {image}
Closed it for minor gain. It just ain't moving and I decided to not hold it over night because of the negative swap. If it moves down again I might buy once more because location is good.
  • #34,688
  • Feb 17, 2020 6:06pm Feb 17, 2020 6:06pm
Two on my Radar this week AC has a pending ABCD pattern on H1 and EC Green line is MS2 in Standard pivots. Also keeping my eye on EG which is sitting right on MS1 in Standards pivots, it's at a good long term support level, lets see if it gets any life this week. I lost one small trade on it last week.
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Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #34,689
  • Feb 17, 2020 6:35pm Feb 17, 2020 6:35pm
UK PM Jonshon and Chancellor Sunak are reportely mulling cutting the rate of pension tax relief for higher earnings to 20% from 40%, which
could raise GBP 10bln per annum, according to the Times
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...dget-5pcjn56tf
  • #34,690
  • Edited 10:39pm Feb 17, 2020 9:03pm | Edited 10:39pm
AC long 8860
What I love about AC it takes less then half margin then GC so I was able to load more on it.I think CAD is cheapest to trade.Pound most expensive in terms of margin.Something to be aware of in the future.
Because of new rules on US brokers keep your lots different sizes so you can set SL TP otherwise wont work

Thanks to fking regulations.Washington pen pushers always trying to screw the retail traders.Not the case outside US.Outside US you can hedge close green trades open same pair more trades etc. I think US oxymoron regulations are stifling. For Example why in the world put regulation that I can not close green trades unless I close earlier red ones? Why? Makes no sense.Its my money my trades I should be to close green or red anytime!Now BS regulation that if I keep my lots same I wont be able to set TP or SL Unreal

If you think Sanders or Warren going to make it easier you are delusional.1st thing they'll do is increase capital gains tax!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,691
  • Feb 17, 2020 10:58pm Feb 17, 2020 10:58pm
starting to grow legs on this
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,692
  • Feb 17, 2020 11:50pm Feb 17, 2020 11:50pm
Just one of the pairs I trade this week.
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #34,693
  • Feb 17, 2020 11:54pm Feb 17, 2020 11:54pm
AJ H1 Bat. Some Yen numbers were a miss. I found some interesting stories on this Financial Times page, I'm bookmarking it for future reference.
https://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-a...o-topix-index/
https://www.ft.com/content/6b5ba925-...4-52fdb3f6e2f7
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Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #34,694
  • Feb 17, 2020 11:57pm Feb 17, 2020 11:57pm
Quoting Davit
AC long 8860 What I love about AC it takes less then half margin then GC so I was able to load more on it.I think CAD is cheapest to trade.Pound most expensive in terms of margin.Something to be aware of in the future. Because of new rules on US brokers keep your lots different sizes so you can set SL TP otherwise wont work Thanks to fking regulations.Washington pen pushers always trying to screw the retail traders.Not the case outside US.Outside US you can hedge close green trades open same pair more trades etc. I think US oxymoron regulations...
Is this the case even if you are considered being "professional trader"? In EU they make difference between amateur retail and professional traders. For example leverage you can use: amateur 1:30, professional 1:500.
  • #34,695
  • Feb 18, 2020 1:53am Feb 18, 2020 1:53am
Quoting Davit
AC long 8860 What I love about AC it takes less then half margin then GC so I was able to load more on it.I think CAD is cheapest to trade.Pound most expensive in terms of margin.Something to be aware of in the future. Because of new rules on US brokers keep your lots different sizes so you can set SL TP otherwise wont work Thanks to fking regulations.Washington pen pushers always trying to screw the retail traders.Not the case outside US.Outside US you can hedge close green trades open same pair more trades etc. I think US oxymoron regulations...
Its strange, it feels, that the governments all over the world try to make trading hard for people. The german government has passed a law which will change the way how wins and losses resulting from trading derivatives (which includes forex) are treated by taxation. At the moment it is common at the end of the year to offset wins and losses in order to pay a 25% tax on the wins or zero tax when the losses were larger than the wins. After the law will be introduced it will only be possible to offset max 10.000 EUR of losses.

Example: A trader has earned 1.200.000 EUR in a year of trading and accumulated 1.000.000 EUR of losses.
In the past
That means he has to pay (1.200.000-1.000.000)*0.25=50.000 EUR tax
His income will be 200.000-50.000=150.000 EUR
2021 (same numbers)
Tax to pay (1.200.000-10.000)*0.25=297.500 EUR
Income 200.000-297.500=-97.500 EUR

Another goodie of the new law will be that a german trader has to pay tax for every win instantly and can get the money back at the end of the year via his annual tax declaration.A trader has earned 1.200.000 EUR in a year of trading and accumulated 1.000.000 EUR of losses.
  • #34,696
  • Feb 18, 2020 3:48am Feb 18, 2020 3:48am
Sometimes I close early leaving on the table too much.

In this case the exact opposite happened, I decided to hold on my GC short and even if UK wages missed the forecast, pair went up 60 pips against me.
Truth to be told looking at PA on M30 you can see long lower wicks, a clear bullish signal that I ignored targeting WS38.

Atm major pair GU is between WPP and 1.30.
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,697
  • Feb 18, 2020 4:36am Feb 18, 2020 4:36am
Quoting bubincka
Sometimes I close early leaving on the table too much. In this case the exact opposite happened, I decided to hold on my GC short and even if UK wages missed the forecast, pair went up 60 pips against me. Truth to be told looking at PA on M30 you can see long lower wicks, a clear bullish signal that I ignored targeting WS38. Atm major pair GU is between WPP and 1.30. {image}
You should of exited when I did 7205 or close there.You had good profits.What you want is not important what's important what market gives you.
When in doubt book profits! always opportunity to reload.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,698
  • Feb 18, 2020 4:43am Feb 18, 2020 4:43am
Watching to short GN again.
Money is a part of what turns you into who you are.
  • #34,699
  • Feb 18, 2020 4:45am Feb 18, 2020 4:45am
Quoting koziolq
Watching to short GN again.
Gn GC GA all good to short.Out of margin!like GC the best

German sentiment came out lot worst then projected... EG longs not looking good unless we get some red on GBP

Possibly dropped the ball on this trade.EG
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,700
  • Feb 18, 2020 4:55am Feb 18, 2020 4:55am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Gn GC GA all good to short.Out of margin!like GC the best German sentiment came out lot worst then projected... EG longs not looking good unless we get some red on GBP Possibly dropped the ball on this trade.EG
I'm holding EG too, you might be right GU is in a tight range atm, but I think its stretched out against the commodity pairs especially NZD. made few £ this week shorting this pair. wouldn't short GC at the moment as to me it isn't the top as yet.

Cheers
Luke
Money is a part of what turns you into who you are.
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