1H Swing Trading on EURUSD

now i have add the indicator.
please guide me when you enter trade when ever green signal appeared after red signal or you will wait for recent support or resistance breakout?
and what about profit taking ?

I don't look for support/resistance breakouts but just trends, please re-read post 1.
I know that I didn't do well until now but just in case, and to be clear, this is how all 2020 trends should have been traded, I think the picture says it all.

Thanks for your reply.
Now i got your point.
hopefully this indicator will help alot.

Not much to say except that this down trend has no end !
Unfortunately had to close some risky EJ shorts but I will stay with my initial ones until the color changes

I finally closed my shorts as the movement was getting very slow, and then oh crap! the time to write these lines it rallied 10 pips.

Anyway, I couldn't resist taking the profits and erase some of my earlier losses. and knowing that I come from a low in account of $259, I'm happy with it and more than that, I will be there tomorrow for the next trend.

Want to say thank you to Broketrader for the strategy. I will continue to try this strategy. Made a trade on GBPUSD. Took the profits at 100 pips and may look for another entry on a retracement.

feel free to advise if i could have done the trade better.

Be careful with GBPUSD, as I already stated, I initially made this system for EURUSD !
Try to put 2 charts of EU and GU side by side and you will see what I'm talking about.

The good thing of being out of the markets for a moment is that it allows you to make a kind of emotional reset, and that helps you to re-evaluate your trades again, take a step back or take some altitude and look at the big picture. After doing so, it's clear that I exited too early, maybe as an excuse I could say that I needed to rebuild my balance.

So to find out why (I exited too early), I went into a top-bottom analysis from monthly, to weekly, daily and finally hourly to see where we are and were we could go next and here are my findings.

Monthly charts of EU and EJ shows secular trends in which we see EU in a descending Flag and EJ navigating inside a Triangle. Not much to say on this as I don't trade monthly charts but good to keep them in mind and have those lines for the day we approach them.




The weekly charts are already revealing interesting things.

On EU, we see that we also are in a descending Flag and that the next low of the Flag corresponds to the opening of the gap we had in 2017 and which was never filled till now and this could very well be a reason for a rebound.



On EJ, we also are in a descending Flag, which could be expected in a lower time-frame as EJ quite well follows EU but to the contrary of EU, we are not at the bottom of it yet, even far from it, so I'm wondering, if EU rebounds at its Flag bottom, will EJ break its Flag to the upside ?
Or, if EJ run its course to the bottom, will EU break its Flag to the downside ?
This will be interesting to follow in the coming weeks.



The daily picture shows nice daily trends zigzagging inside the weekly Flags. These trends and their breaks must be taken into account when trading the one hour trends in the future.




And finally, my favorite playground, the hourly time-frame where a lot of nice things appear now that we have the weekly and daily trends in place.

Starting with the first hourly trend of 2020, the 20-1 trend was suggesting a break of the weekly Flag but then we got the 20-2 downtrend just below it, suggesting that a major high was forming. It was the beginning of the year and we have navigated some 370 pips lower since !
Then, the 20-3 trend forms a top for a daily downtrend, o course we don't know it yet but then, 20-4 breaks the current daily uptrend followed by 20-5 which serves to just test the previous trend-line and give an additional point to the current daily downtrend in which we are today.



And the picture is almost similar on EJ



Conclusion.

The following days we could see a test or break of the Flag support, followed by a test or break of the current daily downtrend or the inverse !

Nobody can predict what will happen but having those levels on the chart is where I think that this analysis can help and the good news is that we just have to follow the one hour trends and take note of these events when they happen to trade the one hour trends accordingly.

Hi Broketrader and thank you for sharing your system with us. Have lots to catch up on but wanted to post this. I am definitely going to follow and learn from you, wil try to post as much as I can. I wonder if there is a possibility of sharing your template on post #161 ? thanks in advance and God bless.

Hi MrRijk and Welcome!

Unfortunately I don't have the possibility of saving or exporting any template from TradingView, but my chart setup is very simple as you only need SmaSRSI-96 indicator which you can download from post 180 and then draw some trend-lines, let me know if you need more help.

broketrader, I am also going to give your strategy a go. I think the indicator you made here is impressive. I like the simplicity of the strategy. I will also post my charts with my analysis using this strategy plus my own input into to try and give back a little. Thank you for taking the time to share this with us!

Thank you and Welcome!

I think that yes, the strategy is simple enough and I hope that now coupled with higher time frames analysis like done in post 188 we should even take more out of it.

Good luck, I hope you will succeed with it !

We are near a break of the 20-6 trend-line and a trend-line break is a good indicator of change in price direction.
As my full position for the next trend will be 0.6 lots, I will enter 1/3 of it on the trend-line break now and the remaining when we get the signal confirmation.

But I still want to see a clear break of the trend at the hour close.

Just touched the downtrend and went away from it. Now we are in the face of a triple bottom or a new leg down if broken...



But I won't trade that, sometimes a "no trade" is the "best trade".

The red has become blue ;-)
Entered 1/3 of my position as the trend-line is clearly broken now.

broke, you arent weary about the US bank holiday yesterday? You dont think once that New York session starts this morning it will continue as it was before it closed?

Yes, was aware of that.
That could be the case, it could continue like before, but I don't trade that, there is also covid-19, news, etc... you see ?

So I fearless trade what I see on the chart and if it proves me wrong then I will exit, take my loss and prepare for the next.

Now, we had several hour closes out of the trend, I didn't have the momentum I wanted to see and we could even come back under the trend meaning that the break was a fake, that's life. At the same time, I didn't went full in, but only with 1/3 of what will be my final position once the signal is there, so not a big deal getting a loss and still worth the risk for me.

But what is sure is that we didn't get the signal yet ;-)

New tentative this time with 1/6 of position, plan to add another 1/6 if momentum improves...

Hello broke, I have been watching this thread for some few weeks and I have adapted the 96SMA for my trading with good results.. Got a good signal on EJ this morning and its its performing as you can see from the chart.