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Time and Price Forecasting

  • #1,761
  • Feb 10, 2020 1:04pm Feb 10, 2020 1:04pm
Quoting parisboy
Average Uptrending slope = 9 / 10 points per day {image}
Yippee!!!!
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #1,762
  • Feb 10, 2020 1:23pm Feb 10, 2020 1:23pm
Why it is plain STUPID to follow Computerized Cycle Models ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HURST CYCLE MODEL DAX 9 4.5 YEAR CYCLE.jpg Size: 96 KB
  • #1,763
  • Feb 10, 2020 1:38pm Feb 10, 2020 1:38pm
The BTCUSD Composite Cycle Model results TOP in April 2020 and LOW in the second half of September 2020 have been obtained by the same computer program which identified the Cycle periods (length) of the DAX

Conclusion : Hurst Cycle Model is 99 % ok IN AVERAGE

but Hurst Cycle Model Values are just that : Averages (and others Cyclic Model too)

9 Year Cycle :

Average Cycle Value is 102,62 % of the theoretical (nominal) value which is good - for 3 components BUT Variation goes from - 12 % to + 12 % on individual components

9 Year Cycle = 9 x 12 = 108 months
12 % variation = 13 months

4.5 Year Cycle :

Average Cycle Value is 102,73 % of the theoretical (nominal) value which is good - for 6 components BUT Variation goes from - 15 % to + 32 % on individual components

4.5 Year Cycle = 4.5 x 12 = 54 months
15 % variation = 8.1 months
32 % variation + 17.28 months

Hurst Cycle Model is in AVERAGE good , even excellent. But it is a discovery Model , an Initial Cyclic Model
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCUSD COMPOSITE CYCLE SCENARIO.jpg Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: HURST CYCLE MODEL DAX 9 4.5 YEAR CYCLE.jpg Size: 96 KB
  • #1,764
  • Feb 10, 2020 2:13pm Feb 10, 2020 2:13pm
@parisboy, diamond miner.....do you gentlemen actually trade of cycles of 54 months, 9 year, etc etc....

I can imagine you must hold me in contempt as I'm a frigging day trader and could really care less about such long cycles...I am interested in last week highs and lows, yesterday highs and lows , and how it all relates to my 15 min entry chart...but that's about it...

Please understand, I am not being ignorant to either of you, I respect you both very much and your understanding of such things but in my world where the heck do I enter the market today??? An what tells me when to close for the day??

Are you both long term swing traders? Or do you secretly do some day trading like me lol lol
  • #1,765
  • Feb 10, 2020 2:25pm Feb 10, 2020 2:25pm
I mean, I can relate to cycles in time repeating themselves and giving the trader a suggestion that we could turn at this point or that point...but its all pretty discretionary in the short term,,,there has to be at least some confluence to actually make the trade...like price support/resistance level, or daily, weekly highs or lows etc....but cycles way out in the future do not much for my way of seeing the market...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-02-10_1322.png Size: 37 KB
  • #1,766
  • Feb 10, 2020 2:25pm Feb 10, 2020 2:25pm
Quoting Swede
@parisboy, diamond miner.....do you gentlemen actually trade of cycles of 54 months, 9 year, etc etc.... I can imagine you must hold me in contempt as I'm a frigging day trader and could really care less about such long cycles...I am interested in last week highs and lows, yesterday highs and lows , and how it all relates to my 15 min entry chart...but that's about it... Please understand, I am not being ignorant to either of you, I respect you both very much and your understanding of such things but in my world where the heck do I enter the market...
Swede, I truly believe in cycles yes. however, it's when they appear. The 54 month and 9 year thing is a bit of a stretch for me.
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #1,767
  • Edited 2:54pm Feb 10, 2020 2:29pm | Edited 2:54pm
Quoting Swede
@parisboy, diamond miner.....do you gentlemen actually trade of cycles of 54 months, 9 year, etc etc.... I can imagine you must hold me in contempt as I'm a frigging day trader and could really care less about such long cycles...I am interested in last week highs and lows, yesterday highs and lows , and how it all relates to my 15 min entry chart...but that's about it... Please understand, I am not being ignorant to either of you, I respect you both very much and your understanding of such things but in my world where the heck do I enter the market...
Some traders trading the EURUSD could consider useful to know that :

- we are in a "Long Term" DownTrend" (1 year is "Long Term" for a 15 mn trader)
- this "Long Term " Down Trend will reduce the amplitude of the counter Uptrend (bullish rallies)
- it is useful to know the average periodicity of the Cycles within the EURUSD Price Action
- it is also useful to be able to determine in which Cycle Swing we are trading (bearish or bullish ?)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 1 YEAR CYCLES SWEDE.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #1,768
  • Edited 2:58pm Feb 10, 2020 2:40pm | Edited 2:58pm
Notice the effect / influence of the Underlying Down Trend

Price Action since May 2019 fluctuates UNDER the Centered Moving Average 256 Time Unit (brown)

Bullish Rallies never crossed this Centered Moving Average 256 at the exception of 2 "Lost Motion"

we can visually count 25 / 30 cycles in 9 Months ( mid-May 2019 / mid-February 2020

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 1 YEAR 10 FEVRIER 2020.jpg Size: 184 KB
  • #1,769
  • Feb 10, 2020 3:33pm Feb 10, 2020 3:33pm
The circle tool measured (overlayed) on the consolidation time line (red horizontal) is a Jenkins staple...works very well to estimate distance to sup/res levels...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-02-10_1427.png Size: 44 KB
  • #1,770
  • Feb 11, 2020 7:48am Feb 11, 2020 7:48am
Absolutely textbook Jenkins trades this morning on euro once again. This will probably be my final post since there is so little participation in this thread.....would love to see and hear from others on their trades using time and price and how they use the tools to assess their trades....and the results of their trades.....

Otherwise all that is being posted is concepts, not live trading nor the results of the concepts...anyway...keep green and maybe we will talk again sometime. thanks Peter for introducing me to Jenkins and Beck...this stuff really works well with a bit of planning...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-02-11_0640_Textbook_Jenkins_Secret_Angle.png Size: 60 KB
  • #1,771
  • Feb 11, 2020 8:57am Feb 11, 2020 8:57am
Swede, don't go. I study all your charts. Give me time to put this all together and then I'll be putting my trades on here for better or worse. Maybe I should post more comments in reply to posts by pro traders like you (DM, PB etc) so you know posting your knowledge is greatly appreciated. I'm halfway through the Beck and Jenkins books. Trying to marry them up, whilst at the same time trying to bring the circles, Jenkins secret angle, and all the other juicy gems that you and others sprinkle about here. I'm nearly there. Hang about a bit longer, Swede, and I'll soon be able to start giving some payback.
  • #1,772
  • Feb 11, 2020 9:42am Feb 11, 2020 9:42am
Guilty as charged !! I don’t trade forex that often but don’t mind posting a few charts of stocks I have squared using the Jenkins Secret angle. This method really works and I am currently just sticking with this method. The secret angle works on everything It really baffles me seeing tradings wasting time on other methods after seeing what’s possible using the SAM.
The SAM method has other features as well which are rarely picked on in this chart room such as drawing negative angles or pinpointing times a possible reversal can happen
I am still learning all the same. It will start posting a few charts every now and then for all to see the powerful setups this strategy can produce.
Someone on this forum mentioned a quote from MSJ awhile ago where he said “ There are so many ways and methods of squaring time and price find a Method that you are comfortable with Own it Apply it daily and master it then sit back and watch the pips, points,ticks grow your trading account.
Lastly would want to add planning with the bigger picture in mind will give better results applying these methods with large bars will hide the overall trend I.e get as many as possible bats on your charts for a clearer picture and let the market come to you.
  • #1,773
  • Feb 11, 2020 10:21am Feb 11, 2020 10:21am
Quoting Swede
Absolutely textbook Jenkins trades this morning on euro once again. This will probably be my final post since there is so little participation in this thread.....would love to see and hear from others on their trades using time and price and how they use the tools to assess their trades....and the results of their trades..... Otherwise all that is being posted is concepts, not live trading nor the results of the concepts...anyway...keep green and maybe we will talk again sometime. thanks Peter for introducing me to Jenkins and Beck...this stuff...
Swede, do not challenge me !

EURUSD 1 mn Mid-Band trading

On going Trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD ON GOING TRADE 11 FEVRIER 2020.jpg Size: 201 KB
  • #1,774
  • Feb 11, 2020 10:25am Feb 11, 2020 10:25am
isn't that also a pull back to a Fib level?
  • #1,775
  • Feb 11, 2020 10:44am Feb 11, 2020 10:44am
Anybody watching what BTC did today?
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #1,776
  • Feb 11, 2020 10:46am Feb 11, 2020 10:46am
unfortunately closed at break even

loss = transaction costs
  • #1,777
  • Feb 11, 2020 10:53am Feb 11, 2020 10:53am
Quoting DiamondMiner
Anybody watching what BTC did today?
Yikes...didn't expect a move like that.....that is why I stay with pretty much 2 currencies....I understand their moods and nuances...keeps me in the money''lol
  • #1,778
  • Feb 11, 2020 10:54am Feb 11, 2020 10:54am
Quoting Aworex
Guilty as charged !! I don’t trade forex that often but don’t mind posting a few charts of stocks I have squared using the Jenkins Secret angle. This method really works and I am currently just sticking with this method. The secret angle works on everything It really baffles me seeing tradings wasting time on other methods after seeing what’s possible using the SAM. The SAM method has other features as well which are rarely picked on in this chart room such as drawing negative angles or pinpointing times a possible reversal can happen I am still...
Great post...I really agree ..extending, adding a few angles and it is one powerful, trade-able script....
  • #1,779
  • Feb 11, 2020 10:58am Feb 11, 2020 10:58am
Quoting vik11
Swede, don't go. I study all your charts. Give me time to put this all together and then I'll be putting my trades on here for better or worse. Maybe I should post more comments in reply to posts by pro traders like you (DM, PB etc) so you know posting your knowledge is greatly appreciated. I'm halfway through the Beck and Jenkins books. Trying to marry them up, whilst at the same time trying to bring the circles, Jenkins secret angle, and all the other juicy gems that you and others sprinkle about here. I'm nearly there. Hang about a bit longer,...
appreciate your comments...it's just that it takes tons of time to post quality...and when there are only a very few posting it is discouraging...especially when I know these methods really develops traders, not a gamblers....my account has not had a loosing day for the past 4 weeks...
  • #1,780
  • Feb 11, 2020 11:09am Feb 11, 2020 11:09am
Quoting Swede
{quote} appreciate your comments...it's just that it takes tons of time to post quality...and when there are only a very few posting it is discouraging...especially when I know these methods really develops traders, not a gamblers....my account has not had a loosing day for the past 4 weeks...
Swede, I am trying to educate the public, it's a thankless job, I agree. However, I know how to make money when ever I need money. Those few who paid attention to what is going on in this thread are better off today then before seeing this thread. You Swede, are one of those Eye Stoppers(kinda like a woman with a great rack), that people pay attention too. You have already changed someone else's life.
P
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
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