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Economic Indicator Forecasting by Banks: Why and how 4 replies

Attachments: Time and Price Forecasting
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Time and Price Forecasting

I must say that worked out well....no beer for me tonight....think Scotch is in order...
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It was just too good to pass up as she broke below yesterdays support and the oscillation started with the bulls and bears dukeing it out....having the hourly and daily off to the side gives a trader the true picture of what is happening...if you only use the hourly, or the 5 min chart your often at a great disadvantage when the heat begins...
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Quoting makenas
{quote} Hello Swede,I have a question and i almost made in private but i thought maybe its not only me who have the same question.Assuming i have protractor,should it be a physical one or its on the screen type?, if its physical how do i use it,should i print out my charts and work on them physically?,maybe a dumb question but thats how we get out of being dumb.Blessings
Hi Makenas...good question...I haven't used a program to do the drawings...i'm sure there are some good ones out there...think one was posted a few days ago but have not tested it.....I squeeze up my chart before placing my protractor on the screen and hand draw them...printing an mt4 chart is not the best but if it scales out nicely it doesn't hurt to do the exercise. Parisboy talks about that a few posts back...it really gets your mind working and educates at the same time. Having everything on software make us lazy....
Quoting Swede
{quote} Hi Makenas...good question...I haven't used a program to do the drawings...i'm sure there are some good ones out there...think one was posted a few days ago but have not tested it.....I squeeze up my chart before placing my protractor on the screen and hand draw them...printing an mt4 chart is not the best but if it scales out nicely it doesn't hurt to do the exercise. Parisboy talks about that a few posts back...it really gets your mind working and educates at the same time. Having everything on software make us lazy....
Thanks for your reply,now i know what to do
So not that all the action is over..for a few moments anyway, this is when the Jenkins Script is placed on the chart...lets see if it retraces to that 50 level...or stops at the slotted trendline...may consider another healthy short at those areas if price action dictates...Notice the retrace today is nothing like yesterday...longs got their ass handed to them this morning...all their stops were breached...losses sustained...so the enthusiasm is gone for the long haul,.....now market makers will manipulate so everyone thinks long again, so they can take advantage of herd mentality...
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Quoting Swede
So not that all the action is over..for a few moments anyway, this is when the Jenkins Script is placed on the chart...lets see if it retraces to that 50 level...or stops at the slotted trendline...may consider another healthy short at those areas if price action dictates... {image}

It is very likely that the EU action has ended and there will be a correction. Sorry, I don't have a glass ball.

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if you're doing we all have results with all
Quoting jarfx05
{quote} It is very likely that the EU action has ended and there will be a correction. Sorry, I don't have a glass ball. {image}
yes no one knows, but traders have been waiting for that since May....stay with the overall trend and you seldom go wrong.....there is absolutely nothing to indicate a correction at this point,,,,retrace yes, correction no.
Quoting Swede
I must say that worked out well....no beer for me tonight....think Scotch is in order... {image}
Good call Swede make it a double Scotch
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
Quoting gettoefl
the year cycle works well and its multiples and exact divisions, concerning this year, friday close is the Q1 mid point an eight through 2020 we traversed 300 pips precise same amount as whole of Q4 so will either do a flat move from here til end of Q1 or back up to where we began the year i do assume we close friday 1.09 because a gann cycle should move a fixed number of pips in an eight of a year and for euro that is 300 and its multiples / divisors
went 25 above 109 and likely go 25 below ... straddles and strangles this week is the easy money
twitter: @gettoefl
Quoting Swede
{quote} yes no one knows, but traders have been waiting for that since May....stay with the overall trend and you seldom go wrong.....there is absolutely nothing to indicate a correction at this point,,,,retrace yes, correction no.

Yes. We will see what the market will do. EU closed, GJ will still have potential.

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if you're doing we all have results with all
@ parisboy...is this what your envelope 15 min euro chart looks like....see, I try

do you have a template that can be shared in tradingview or did you customize yourself? They always show strong areas and I can use that...
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  • Post #1,812
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 13, 2020 6:32am Feb 12, 2020 1:09pm | Edited Feb 13, 2020 6:32am
Quoting Swede
@ parisboy...is this what your envelope 15 min euro chart looks like....see, I try do you have a template that can be shared in tradingview or did you customize yourself? They always show strong areas and I can use that... {image}

Swede, fact is I do not remember exactly how and what I have done in trading View.

Fact is I have customized something existing already. Modifying the parameters, essentially the offsett backwards to get the Centered Moving Average.

I am totally illiterate in programming , then I Customized a Moving Average template to build my Envelopes , copied it 2 times more on the chart and saved the result as a "template"

But I do not know if it is a "private" one or a public one.

I have something under Pine Editor. I need to find it. And I will post it.

But as I have already written. I have done it myself with TradingView existing templates and tools. Hence everybody can build the same Envelops as I have done. This process will help you. You will understand what you did, why you did it and what are the limits and working conditions of the parameters.

The reasoning is the same for those of you using another platform.
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Quoting Swede
@ parisboy...is this what your envelope 15 min euro chart looks like....see, I try do you have a template that can be shared in tradingview or did you customize yourself? They always show strong areas and I can use that... {image}
http://forum.hurstcycles.com/t/tradi...veloppes/94/36

david.hickson, post:35, topic:94

The Centered Moving Average 32 Time Units also - a “normal one” offsetted 16 units back.
Both Centered Moving Averages 128 and 256 Time Units are ALSO offsetted 16 units back.

Does that mean that the 128 and 256 moving averages are not offset 64 and 128 respectively, but both are offset 16 time units?

CORRECT

David this a trick due to necessity NOT something you have to do or replicate

I found this “trick” by chance or hazard due to my unability to program within TradingView the correct representation of the Centered Moving Average 128 and 256 which has to be offsetted 64 and 128.

To be more clear. for you a programmer.

a) I You have a “script” in the programming language. I first calculated the 32 Moving Average (the blue one) with an offset of 16 points back.This is the correct representation.
b) Then I copied the original 32 Moving Average and modified the period in the parameters and discovered that I could not modify the offset parameter to 64 and 128.

The problem (and weakness) with the 3 Enveloppes system is to calculate and show an “approximation” , a “forecasted” curve between the CUT-OFF point and the last point of the time serie in the data.

For that you can use whatever method you want.

And by “time unit” do you mean 1 x minute on a 1-minute bar, 1 x hour on a 1-hour bar and 1 x day on a 1-day bar?
David _CORRECT
The general idea is that we are dealing with points on a graph, on a screen with limited capacity in length.
This is why we notice the same structures and patterns whatever the level we operate. This is due to the “fractal” nature of the market (representation)
Quoting Swede
@ parisboy...is this what your envelope 15 min euro chart looks like....see, I try do you have a template that can be shared in tradingview or did you customize yourself? They always show strong areas and I can use that... {image}

posted as an answer to a guy named bobo 32 on the Hurst Forum

http://forum.hurstcycles.com/t/tradi...veloppes/94/77

Hello Bobo22
study(title=“Envelope”, shorttitle=“Env”, overlay=true)
len = input(32, title=“Length”, minval=1)
octave = input(156.25)
src = input(close, title=“Source”)
exponential = input(false)
basis = sma(src, len)
k = octave
upper = basis + k
lower = basis - k
plot(basis, color=orange,offset=-16)
u = plot(upper, color=blue, offset=-16)
l = plot(lower, color=blue, offset=-16)
fill(u, l, color=blue)
Source code for the study is above
this creates the Envelope 32 with an offset of - 16

after that you copy 2 times the Envelope indicator on the chart and you modify the length with 128 and 256
you change (if you want) the color - I use blue for 32, ocre for 128 and brown for 256
and you got the 3 Envelopes aligned on the end of Envelope 32 . The " Envelopes are offsetted by - 16

Then you save your “study” as a Template

PS - May be the code is not perfect - but I am totally illiterate in programming. So I used at the time (beginning of 2016) something existing in Trading View - and adapted it to my needs.
Quoting Swede
@ parisboy...is this what your envelope 15 min euro chart looks like....see, I try do you have a template that can be shared in tradingview or did you customize yourself? They always show strong areas and I can use that... {image}
Swede a guy named b3cker posted this on the Hurst forum. If it can help.

http://forum.hurstcycles.com/t/tradi...veloppes/94/74

study(“Hurst_Channels”,overlay=true)
res = input(title=“Resolution”, type=resolution, defval=“D”)
price = security(tickerid, res, hl2)
length = input(29, minval=1)
//InnerValue = input(1.6,minval=0.1)
//OuterValue = input(2.6,minval=0.1)
ExtremeValue = input(2.2,minval=0.1)
showFlowPrice = input(title=“FlowPrice/Off”, type=bool, defval=false)
showPriceBar = input(title=“PriceBar/Off”, type=bool, defval=true)
smooth = input(1,minval=1)
displacement = (length / 2) + 1
CMA = nz(sma(price, abs(length)) ,nz(CMA[1]) + nz((CMA[1])) - nz(CMA[2]))
CMA1 = iff(nz(CMA) != 0 ,CMA , price)
plot(CMA1, title=‘CenteredMA’,style=line,linewidth=2,color=red,offset=-displacement)
ExtrapolatedMA = iff(nz(price[-1]) != 0 , CMA1 , price)
plot(CMA1, title=‘ExtrapolatedMA’,style=line,linewidth=2,color=yellow)
ExtremeBand = CMA1 * ExtremeValue / 100
UpperBand = iff(nz(price) != 0 , CMA1 + ExtremeBand , price)
plot(UpperBand, title=‘UpperBand’,style=line,linewidth=2,color=blue,offset=-displacement)
LowerBand = iff(nz(price) != 0, CMA1 - ExtremeBand, price)
plot(LowerBand, title=‘LowerBand’,style=line,linewidth=2,color=blue,offset=-displacement)
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Swede, fact is I do not remember exactly how and what I have done in trading View. Fact is I have customized something existing already. Modifying the parameters, essentially the offsett backwards to get the Centered Moving Average. I am totally illiterate in programming , then I Customized a Moving Average , copied it 2 times more on the chart and saved the result as a "template" But I do not know if it is a "private" one or a public one. I have something under Pine Editor. I need to find it. And I will post it. But as I have already written....
Thanks for posting all that....im clueless on setting all that up..I get the envelopes etc...but why the offset and so on...I have some study to do...
Quoting Swede
@ parisboy...is this what your envelope 15 min euro chart looks like....see, I try do you have a template that can be shared in tradingview or did you customize yourself? They always show strong areas and I can use that... {image}

According to Hurst, the contact points are where the most information lies. In other words, these areas produce the highest probability setups.
Quoting Swede
{quote} Thanks for posting all that....im clueless on setting all that up..I get the envelopes etc...but why the offset and so on...I have some study to do...
Difference between Simple Moving Average and Centered Moving Average
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Quoting Swede
{quote} Thanks for posting all that....im clueless on setting all that up..I get the envelopes etc...but why the offset and so on...I have some study to do...
every day the market teaches us humbleness. Guys who scream I win I win this evil prophets

everyone must go their own way without false prophets

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if you're doing we all have results with all
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Difference between Simple Moving Average and Centered Moving Average {image} {image} {image}
Big big difference between centered and simple...don't think that's available in mt4...will do some research..
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