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Pivot Trading

  • #34,421
  • Feb 8, 2020 8:48am Feb 8, 2020 8:48am
Quoting MrAussieFX
Coronavirus economic impact on Australia https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...st-hit-nations source: https://www.theguardian.com/
Great article thanks for posting.Its something to be aware. AUD is at risk in major way...unless some good news on virus...

I had no idea about this.
The education sector – at $34bn, revenue from overseas students is Australia’s second biggest export behind iron ore – is also crucial, and again highlights how exposed Australia is if students cannot leave China to start their courses this month.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,422
  • Feb 8, 2020 8:58am Feb 8, 2020 8:58am
After the Feds warning
Fed warns virus poses 'new risk' to global growth, markets
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fed-warn...kets-1.1386737

I am anticipating USD overbought positions to be dumped as soon as market opens.Kept my UJ shorts over the weekend.Could be even gap down on open.
May add more to UJ. GU and EU both poised to rebound north. UC may decline but not as much....unless oil rallies which is not likely...
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,423
  • Feb 8, 2020 9:10am Feb 8, 2020 9:10am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Positions can change dramatically depending on data Example red NFP would of changed entire currency moves.Its something to consider but I would not use as bases of placing trades regards
yes, absolutely, my biggest difficulty is to identify quickly what kind of news or speculation is moving the currency.
I know that Could be the combinations of 4:
Economic data
Politics
Central bank policy
or
Risk Sentiment

Next week we dont have events for CAD. So, I try to study what kind of speculation will I combine with our pivot system
  • #34,424
  • Edited 9:33am Feb 8, 2020 9:14am | Edited 9:33am
Some of the pairs on my radar for next week

EURUSD H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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NZDUSD H1
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NZDUSD H4
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USDCAD H4
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NZDJPY H4
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Kindest regards
  • #34,425
  • Feb 8, 2020 3:58pm Feb 8, 2020 3:58pm
Quoting Davit
{quote}Knows China real well.Speaks Chinese and married to one. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkF4qYdNU9Y
I can relate very well since I married one also and we spend each summer in our house in China.
  • #34,426
  • Edited 8:06pm Feb 8, 2020 7:27pm | Edited 8:06pm
Looks like my club of haters are expending Must be doing something right!!!
Haters are people who think they know the route to success, but they never actually get in the plane to fly themselves there

Hate is often a sign of weakness, envy and fear. Haters hate on you because you’re doing what they cannot, will not or are too afraid to attempt
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...948113&page=62

Most are Former Pivot rejects and my ignore list club members!

If these weak individuals think they are somehow hurting me Its only motivating me even more.My goals are getting bigger this year!!!!

Don't let anyone bring you down not your friends, parents, siblings, neighbors, forum members nobody.You are in control of your destiny! Only You!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,427
  • Feb 8, 2020 8:20pm Feb 8, 2020 8:20pm
One of the games just played. Mate in 2.Black to move
I am black
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,428
  • Feb 8, 2020 9:24pm Feb 8, 2020 9:24pm
Quoting Davit
One of the games just played. Mate in 2.Black to move I am black {image}
excelent !!
Attached Image
  • #34,429
  • Feb 9, 2020 1:00am Feb 9, 2020 1:00am
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} excelent !! {image}
There are always more ways for example:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20200209_075649.jpg Size: 200 KB

e2, g2
  • #34,430
  • Feb 9, 2020 1:44am Feb 9, 2020 1:44am
Quoting kleybenny
{quote} There are always more ways for example: {image} e2, g2
This way would expose your own king and leave you in check mate!
  • #34,431
  • Feb 9, 2020 1:48am Feb 9, 2020 1:48am
Quoting russian30
{quote} This way would expose your own king and leave you in check mate!
You are right...
  • #34,432
  • Feb 9, 2020 3:10am Feb 9, 2020 3:10am
Not so much like last week, but there are some really important events to take in consideration. Focus will be on USD and NZD. EUR a little less.

Mon
CNY CPI y/y Forecast of 4.9% from 4.5% A green data here could boost temporarily AUD and NZD. The conditions are similar to the last AUD CPI

Tue
GBP Prelim GDP q/q Forecast of 0.0% from 0.4%
GBP GDP m/m Forecast of 0.2% from -0.3%
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m Forecast of 0.5% from -1.7% Some positive data are expected and all green could give strength to GBP
EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies Powell will discuss the coronavirus, his effects and how the entire situation could evolve. USD will start to collapse in this day or not?

Wed
NZD Official Cash Rate Forecast of 1.00% from 1.00% Before coronavirus mess it was sure that no further cuts were expected in 2020, but now the situation is different. Although it's almost certain that rate will be unchanged, a lot of considerations will be made about future rate cuts, taking in considerations how much coronavirus can affect NZD economy. Anyway, at this time, a rate cut would be a little bit worthless. Lots of opportunities are available on NZD pairs
USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies Same of Tuesday

Tue
AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks He could add something to last week talks regarding future of Australia economy
USD CPI m/m Forecast of 0.2% from 0.2%
USD Core CPI m/m Forecast of 0.2% from 0.1% little positive expecations, but personally I don't think that we will see green data here

Fri
EUR German Preliminar GDP q/q Forecast of 0.1% from 0.1% An opportunity to sell EUR? Waiting to find some opportunities during the week
USD Core Retail Sales m/m Forecast of 0.3% from 0.7% And here USD could go down if it's not gone down already during the week
USD Retail Sales m/m Forecast of 0.3% from 0.3%

Pairs that I will watch for opportunities are: AN, AU, NC, NU and UC
Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the Earth
  • #34,433
  • Feb 9, 2020 5:33am Feb 9, 2020 5:33am
The Week Ahead
No CAD or JPY Red News as yet! Watch CAD Monday, Housing & Building Starts!
https://www.investing.com/news/econo...s-week-2079989
  • #34,434
  • Feb 9, 2020 5:38am Feb 9, 2020 5:38am
Quoting kleybenny
{quote} There are always more ways for example: {image} e2, g2
Re2 is a bad move, because davit´s opponent has QC8+
Where Davit Should move? Bd8? or Kf7? but in in losing position
because white follow Qxd8+ or Qf8+
  • #34,435
  • Feb 9, 2020 5:49am Feb 9, 2020 5:49am
Quoting Gmo
{quote} US Dollar Index Futures - followup!! May have to rethink US strength next week!! Tagged a Trend Line 3rd touch! Yes, Davit another Trend Line. However, Lower Highs & Lower Lows! Anyone with a chart with Weekly Pivots applied? RED News Tuesday & Wednesday may dictate PA? {image}
US Dollar Index Futures
Refer two Posts Page 1703.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DX 2-09-20.jpg Size: 127 KB

"Perfect the Art of 'Thin-Slicing' - Filtering the least Factors that Matter from an Overwhelming Number of Variables"
Malcolm Gladwell, "Blink", 2005
  • #34,436
  • Feb 9, 2020 6:26am Feb 9, 2020 6:26am
Some interesting info about the economy of New Zealand:

https://www.export.gov/article?serie...ommercial__kav

Most important trade partners: China, Australia and The United States.

Dairy is the lead export commodity.

Tourism is New Zealand’s largest export industry in terms of foreign exchange earnings.
It employs one in seven New Zealanders.

Due to the Coronavirus fewer tourists will come to New Zealand, which has a direct effect on the economy:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12305050
May the Force be with you.
  • #34,437
  • Edited 6:50am Feb 9, 2020 6:37am | Edited 6:50am
Quoting Gmo
{quote} US Dollar Index Futures Refer two Posts Page 1703. {image} "Perfect the Art of 'Thin-Slicing' - Filtering the least Factors that Matter from an Overwhelming Number of Variables" Malcolm Gladwell, "Blink", 2005
Gmo.:
is that an atypical movement?
In my post https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post12742980 , I realized the moving going down.
however, as you show, dxi and futures going up.
if we are seeing yelds moving down. This means that currency should move down also., right?
Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was going down at 1.4031% in afternoon trading.
take a look on this daily chart below

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yield.Screenshot_1.jpg Size: 147 KB


2 hour chart posted on page 1720
Attached Image
  • #34,438
  • Feb 9, 2020 6:46am Feb 9, 2020 6:46am
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} Gmo.: is that an atypical movement? In my post https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post12742980 , I also realized it was projectec to go up as you show us now. if we are seeing yelds moving down. This means that currency should move down also. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was going down at 1.4031% in afternoon trading. take a look on this daily chart below {image}
ppxdf
Thank you for your information.
Of interest, DX last showed this strength of movement January 31, 2019 to February 11, 2019. Tomorrow is February 10, 2020.
I will watch this closely for reversal that may have a high probability????
  • #34,439
  • Edited 7:25am Feb 9, 2020 6:48am | Edited 7:25am
Quoting Josti
Some interesting info about the economy of New Zealand: https://www.export.gov/article?serie...ommercial__kav Most important trade partners: China, Australia and The United States. Dairy is the lead export commodity. Tourism is New Zealand’s largest export industry in terms of foreign exchange earnings. It employs one in seven New Zealanders. Due to the Coronavirus fewer tourists will come to New Zealand, which has a direct effect on the economy: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12305050...
I expect AUD and NZD south the next days Minimum.

I found this report: The report says "I expect the first signs of the virus impact on local economies to show up between February 20 and February 25, when Taiwan export orders, Australia PMI, Thailand and Hong Kong import data are released. A change in product inventories from Chinese manufacturers, as well as imports by major auto, retail and durable goods companies, is possibly a signal the production shutdown is affecting the supply chain." After February 25 we may know better how the economy will be doing and what the logistics issues are!

Wait and see....
Best regards,
Renko
  • #34,440
  • Feb 9, 2020 7:13am Feb 9, 2020 7:13am
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} excelent !! {image}


that Rxh3 will force and pressure for resignation.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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