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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #821
  • Feb 4, 2020 4:15pm Feb 4, 2020 4:15pm
It's official! Markets are no longer based on Fundamental or Technical analysis. They are purely based on Greed or Fear!
There is no logical reasoning behind price moves anymore. Take Tesla share price today... are they really worth well over $950 a share?
come on! seriously!

Trade based on Greed or Fear! Forget everything else!
  • #822
  • Feb 4, 2020 6:57pm Feb 4, 2020 6:57pm
Quoting Forex.RayV1
It's official! Markets are no longer based on Fundamental or Technical analysis. They are purely based on Greed or Fear! There is no logical reasoning behind price moves anymore. Take Tesla share price today... are they really worth well over $950 a share? come on! seriously! Trade based on Greed or Fear! Forget everything else!

I think technical analysis shows critical levels of greed and fear
  • #823
  • Feb 5, 2020 12:53am Feb 5, 2020 12:53am
Actually technical analysis is the first step of any financial movement.
  • #824
  • Feb 5, 2020 4:29am Feb 5, 2020 4:29am
Quoting Forex.RayV1
It's official! Markets are no longer based on Fundamental or Technical analysis. They are purely based on Greed or Fear! There is no logical reasoning behind price moves anymore. Take Tesla share price today... are they really worth well over $950 a share? come on! seriously! Trade based on Greed or Fear! Forget everything else!
not even that anymore.
CBs are buying anything and everything possible, and when you have buyers with infinite pockets and the ability to print infinite money for nothing, the market can't go down. Doesn't mean it doesn't retrace from time to time but even that seems they don't allow any healthy retrace to happen anymore: a couple of % down and all CBs hop on it and buy buy buy like there is no tomorrow.
It will end up in a singularity where one CB will own everything and at that point what will happen?.... nothing, it will just continue to bid itself up using whatever shoddy mechanism to sustain the illusion that all is fine in the world economy, which in some ways won't be even wrong to say.
Private default of debt? CBs will buy. Companies default of debt? CBs will buy. Country default of debt? other CBs will buy until only one will remain in which case default doesn't matter anymore anyway. Minsky's moment will not happen, it is now irrelevant, the Ponzi scheme can go on for ever.
Have fun with something like that
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockfedecbassets.pdf
and
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2018&locations=EU-US-CN-JP&start=1999
  • #825
  • Feb 5, 2020 5:38am Feb 5, 2020 5:38am
looks promising to me... these are the futures on the DJI...
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  • #826
  • Feb 5, 2020 1:36pm Feb 5, 2020 1:36pm
Hi Igrok are you sure it isnt a continuation Diamond ?
  • #827
  • Feb 5, 2020 6:55pm Feb 5, 2020 6:55pm
"The end of the US stock market" seems rather elusive.
Attached Image
Freedom is not free
  • #828
  • Feb 6, 2020 12:46am Feb 6, 2020 12:46am
Quoting Abe16
"The end of the US stock market" seems rather elusive. {image}
Did you make good money going long? or just for personal satisfaction winding up Bears? or a bit of both
  • #829
  • Feb 6, 2020 2:57am Feb 6, 2020 2:57am
oh dear isnt that a new high , no crash, i hate to say it but i told you so

Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #830
  • Feb 6, 2020 6:03am Feb 6, 2020 6:03am
Quoting pipfarm
oh dear isnt that a new high , no crash, i hate to say it but i told you so
Lets meet us at 40k or maybe 50k, good boy
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #831
  • Feb 6, 2020 12:29pm Feb 6, 2020 12:29pm
Quoting Igrok
DJIA and S&P have reached their new historical highs yesterday... for the Dow it means that the bullish wave that started forming on December 26, 2018 and which bottomed out at 21712,5 is gonna be the last one on its predominantly bullish historical chart... so. the market is likely to reach its absolute top before the end of this year... most likely even before the end of September, 2019... from that point it is quite likely to turn around and to target the lows of 2009 once again thus reaching 5000-5500 level within the next 3-5 years... seems...
100% Agree... hit the 161.8 Fibs Target 3356...... now it's back to 2300 and beyond...... beautiful Bearish Head and Shoulders taking us back to 2300...
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Next Stop...... The Aston Martin Showroom
  • #832
  • Feb 6, 2020 2:04pm Feb 6, 2020 2:04pm
I dont use diamond patterns, but we are at a crucial junction on dji daily
a "good" close above the high and the bull market continues
a "good" rejection at this high is a bearish signal
....more data required
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  • #833
  • Edited Feb 7, 2020 8:08pm Feb 6, 2020 10:54pm | Edited Feb 7, 2020 8:08pm
I don't even attempt to predict the market months out, but in the shorter term I have gotten fairly accurate. I like to look at extreme overbought/oversold conditions and a few patterns that show up periodically. Although these are based on my charts, which are sorta calibrated for short term moves since I trade PUT/CALL options, maybe someone can find it useful....
Note: edited due to some of note being cut off of chart.
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  • #834
  • Feb 8, 2020 5:39pm Feb 8, 2020 5:39pm
Quoting Edd111111
Hi Igrok are you sure it isnt a continuation Diamond ?
nope... apparently, as we can see now, it didn't form a diamond at all eventually... though so far little has changed as most of the major world indices haven't even changed the MMY at this point... though there was very interesting and quite deceiving picture on the Dow indeed... while the index itself has posted a low below the the previous low of the year that was formed on the 6-th of January? the futures looked totally different... as you can see on that picture I posted above a few days ago the low on the futures was formed on the 8-th of January and was way lower than the bottom of the exchange traded index... have no idea how to explain such a deviation, but obliviously the MMY hasn't been changed yet... other than that I would still refer you to my previous posts in regards to this matter...
  • #835
  • Feb 17, 2020 2:07pm Feb 17, 2020 2:07pm
Hi @Igrok,
A question on Diamonds, in your experience with a MOT where a diamond is an anchor point for price, that is a continuation diamond had formed and then at a later time a reversal diamond forms, does the anchor diamond (continuation) need to be in the same time frame as the reversal diamond, e.g can the reversal be on a weekly and the continuation diamond be on an hourly and still be valid ? I would have thought that the different time-frames invalidate it but happy to learn otherwise. thanks.
  • #836
  • Feb 18, 2020 1:11am Feb 18, 2020 1:11am
here is S&P 500 monthly chart... quite an interesting picture... a single line virtually describes what has happened over more than 10 years period...
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  • #837
  • Feb 18, 2020 1:12am Feb 18, 2020 1:12am
in the ideal case it should eventually look like this I guess...
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  • #838
  • Feb 18, 2020 4:54am Feb 18, 2020 4:54am
Hi Igor, have you been following the FTSE at all ? any thoughts ?
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  • #839
  • Feb 18, 2020 4:15pm Feb 18, 2020 4:15pm
Quoting Edd111111
Hi Igor, have you been following the FTSE at all ? any thoughts ? {image}
haven't seen this chart before... looks like a legit diamond indeed...
  • #840
  • Feb 18, 2020 4:23pm Feb 18, 2020 4:23pm
Quoting Edd111111
Hi @Igrok, A question on Diamonds, in your experience with a MOT where a diamond is an anchor point for price, that is a continuation diamond had formed and then at a later time a reversal diamond forms, does the anchor diamond (continuation) need to be in the same time frame as the reversal diamond, e.g can the reversal be on a weekly and the continuation diamond be on an hourly and still be valid ? I would have thought that the different time-frames invalidate it but happy to learn otherwise. thanks.
nope... they can are completely independent...
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