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The Jail Break System

  • #5,701
  • Feb 3, 2020 4:24am Feb 3, 2020 4:24am
Quoting Simply-Me
{quote} ADR - Average Daily Range. Question might be :How many days you count? I usually count 5 days ADR.
i count previous 5 days, and not Sunday.
many people also use the 20 day average.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #5,702
  • Feb 3, 2020 4:25am Feb 3, 2020 4:25am
Quoting Celal
{quote} Hi billytt , What is te time frame of ADR that you use? Thank you
5 day, Average Daily Range.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #5,703
  • Feb 3, 2020 4:28am Feb 3, 2020 4:28am
Quoting billytt
{quote} i count previous 5 days, and not Sunday. many people also use the 20 day average.
I think numbers of days might depend on timeframe we trade. 20 days might be too much for our day trading style. 5 is just enough.
Whether you think you can, or you think you can't,you're right. H.F.
  • #5,704
  • Feb 3, 2020 4:47am Feb 3, 2020 4:47am
Quoting billytt
usd/chf i was long, took 5% but i have a counter on and currently running -9 points. i have all day to fix it. and yes, that is 9%. trade well all. t 08-11
Hi Billy,

thank you so much for your live trade with your commentary, I reall appreciate that

This is exactly the situation what would happen to me if I would try to trade breakouts. The key part of this approach is the ability to fix these false breakouts I guess. I hope you will share this with us as well.

Thanks Billy and good luck!
  • #5,705
  • Edited 5:32am Feb 3, 2020 5:20am | Edited 5:32am
morning all

Self Assessment

last week for was really a mourning for me and some other members as well

let me try to figure out what went wrong and how to counter it from this day onwards

as always, bottom-line says "Risk Management" and I believe its the ONLY thing that will ensure survival

Markets proved that it doesn't care about MAs, Pivots, ADRs and all the Junk added to charts - Clean Charts - that a 2nd grader could tell the direction- are the best. If a chart doesn't tell the direction clearly, move to other pair!

Always trade more than one pair to avoid marrying to it. multi pairs - divided risk - easy to control.

GAPS: they usually get filled in first 4Hs or 1-2 sessions on the same day. else would take their time punishing retail traders.

For individual Pairs:

EA: Most of us here and on other forums lost a good amount, y, coz of
- improper Lot Sizing (should have closed on 1-2-3 D1 highs)
- adding to losers in anticipation that it will reverse now. Always trade Signals based on 1H-4H bars in the direction of the jail Break
- Didn't Follow Jail Break System on D1 - last week Ideal trade was LONG only (as per the system R should come around somewhere 1.66-1.690 for possible SHORT)

GU:
- Jail Break System on D1 was SHORT - prices closed on top range of D1J1 - should move back to low range and hopefully break it
- Risk Management -if Short, Should have closed on previous D1 highs

plz Add to it.

thx
Time & Price Forecast - Jenkins
  • #5,706
  • Feb 3, 2020 5:36am Feb 3, 2020 5:36am
Hi billytt and Simply-Me,
Thank you..
  • #5,707
  • Feb 3, 2020 5:39am Feb 3, 2020 5:39am
Quoting Simply-Me
{quote} I think numbers of days might depend on timeframe we trade. 20 days might be too much for our day trading style. 5 is just enough.
I tend to agree with that,
having said that, I am more tuned in with the 5 day.

Something else I do. i take an average of the daily average. oi will explain.

last 5 adr for dax is 119 -151 -160 -152 -174 exscluding today.
if you now add the 5x adr and divide by 5 you get.
119+151+160+152+174 = 756 divide by 5 = 151 ….151 is a more conservative range and useful.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #5,708
  • Feb 3, 2020 5:41am Feb 3, 2020 5:41am
Quoting Kruspe
{quote} Hi Billy, thank you so much for your live trade with your commentary, I reall appreciate that This is exactly the situation what would happen to me if I would try to trade breakouts. The key part of this approach is the ability to fix these false breakouts I guess. I hope you will share this with us as well. Thanks Billy and good luck!
I am still testing the 00-00 4 hour break.
I only ever used it to fix a bad trade, I had stats to prove it.
But now I am trading it and watching the adr.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #5,709
  • Feb 3, 2020 5:41am Feb 3, 2020 5:41am
Quoting billytt
{quote} I am still testing the 00-00 4 hour break. I only ever used it to fix a bad trade, I had stats to prove it. But now I am trading it and watching the adr.
you could probably do it with the jail break.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #5,710
  • Feb 3, 2020 6:10am Feb 3, 2020 6:10am
Quoting billytt
{quote} I tend to agree with that, having said that, I am more tuned in with the 5 day. Something else I do. i take an average of the daily average. oi will explain. last 5 adr for dax is 119 -151 -160 -152 -174 exscluding today. if you now add the 5x adr and divide by 5 you get. 119+151+160+152+174 = 756 divide by 5 = 151 ….151 is a more conservative range and useful.
Billy,interesting approach.I use simple Daily "Range PeterE" indicator in MT4. Only thing I can do except some visual setting is change number of days. So I'd have to put every day number down for every pair I trade,another excel tab and count them,uff
Whether you think you can, or you think you can't,you're right. H.F.
  • #5,711
  • Feb 3, 2020 6:29am Feb 3, 2020 6:29am
Quoting Leacher
For individual Pairs: EA: Most of us here and on other forums lost a good amount, y, coz of - improper Lot Sizing (should have closed on 1-2-3 D1 highs) - adding to losers in anticipation that it will reverse now. Always trade Signals based on 1H-4H bars in the direction of the jail Break - Didn't Follow Jail Break System on D1 - last week Ideal trade was LONG only (as per the system R should come around somewhere 1.66-1.690 for possible SHORT)
Hi,
I think EurAud on daily shows it is a ranging pair, and I remember PC said Jail Break System doesn't work well in ranging pair. The spike is mostly due to the fear of the virus spreading and am sure MM used the news to take out retail traders like us. I cut losses on this pair too, as I think keeping my capital is most important.
  • #5,712
  • Feb 3, 2020 6:35am Feb 3, 2020 6:35am
Quoting Kruspe
{quote} That looks good PC! Here is another way how to look at jails. We can easily see where is the biggest activity. {image}
Some traders take awhile to catch on.

You caught on right away.

You'll do very well in this business.

Good morning.
Patience, let the trade come to you.
  • #5,713
  • Feb 3, 2020 6:39am Feb 3, 2020 6:39am
Quoting Celal
Hi Poker Chip, Thank you for your system, and thank to every body who are in this trade.. {image} {image} {image}
You're welcome, I glad you caught on to the jail break system.

Good looking charts too,
Patience, let the trade come to you.
  • #5,714
  • Feb 3, 2020 6:45am Feb 3, 2020 6:45am
Quoting Kellytrade
{quote} Hi, I think EurAud on daily shows it is a ranging pair, and I remember PC said Jail Break System doesn't work well in ranging pair. The spike is mostly due to the fear of the virus spreading and am sure MM used the news to take out retail traders like us. I cut losses on this pair too, as I think keeping my capital is most important.
that's right, Capital Preservation is Key!

we will always have another day to trade!
Time & Price Forecast - Jenkins
  • #5,715
  • Feb 3, 2020 6:47am Feb 3, 2020 6:47am
Quoting Kruspe
{quote} That looks good PC! Here is another way how to look at jails. We can easily see where is the biggest activity. {image}
Very Nice K

can you post the Volume POC indi, if its Mt4? very easy to spot exact 1-2-3.

thanks
Time & Price Forecast - Jenkins
  • #5,716
  • Feb 3, 2020 6:49am Feb 3, 2020 6:49am
Be careful trading today.

The market makers like to use Monday to trap traders for the rest of the week.
Patience, let the trade come to you.
  • #5,717
  • Feb 3, 2020 6:54am Feb 3, 2020 6:54am
EUR/AUD 4 hour chart update.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudi-h4-tw-corp-eur-aud-4-hour-chart.png Size: 36 KB
Patience, let the trade come to you.
  • #5,718
  • Feb 3, 2020 7:04am Feb 3, 2020 7:04am
GPB/USD daily chart update.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdi-d1-tw-corp-gbp-usd-daily-chart.png Size: 47 KB
Patience, let the trade come to you.
  • #5,719
  • Feb 3, 2020 7:05am Feb 3, 2020 7:05am
Quoting PokerChip
EUR/AUD 4 hour chart update. {image}
Hi PC:

EA doesn't have a valid D1R? H4 in the making.

plz correct me
Time & Price Forecast - Jenkins
  • #5,720
  • Feb 3, 2020 7:08am Feb 3, 2020 7:08am
USD/CAD daily chart update.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadi-h4-tw-corp-usd-cad-daily-chart.png Size: 47 KB
Patience, let the trade come to you.
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