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Pivot Trading

  • #34,241
  • Feb 2, 2020 5:14am Feb 2, 2020 5:14am
Quoting mmhasan
I took the losses last week -1863 $ blissfully,without hesitation ,without regret ,without any pain , After cutting losses still remaining almost close to 7% for January 929 $, Its natural ,this is the part of this business to manage losses as well , Like in real life many times unexpected situation arise ,the same way it happen in trading as well , Still remaining the whole year and the possibilities and opportunities in market are limitless , ( And another personal story I m sharing that from January 23 ,2020 my central bank has blocked...
Great attitude and great post.Yes trading is life sometimes you get curve ball.Last year was Trump Trade war this year Virus.We need to navigate out of it and prosper!Sometimes best trade is NO trade.Good news is Virus started early in the year hence we got another 11months to adjust and prosper.Trump trade war started in summer last year and screwed lot of things....This is manageable and can be even super profitable.Being in sink with the market even more important now.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,242
  • Feb 2, 2020 5:17am Feb 2, 2020 5:17am
Quoting artestine
{quote} I have different sources, but bloomberg, reuters, FXStreet and similars are the ones that I use more. Actually I read them almost everyday so when I have to do the calendar on Sunday morning I already have general lines in my mind. Then it's important to be alble to filter what you read on different articles or sources.
thanks for your kind reply
  • #34,243
  • Feb 2, 2020 5:23am Feb 2, 2020 5:23am
Quoting artestine
{quote} I have different sources, but bloomberg, reuters, FXStreet and similars are the ones that I use more. Actually I read them almost everyday so when I have to do the calendar on Sunday morning I already have general lines in my mind. Then it's important to be alble to filter what you read on different articles or sources.
great site one of the best.Well organized.You go forecast then click country then all data you need.Click on calendar look further info.
https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,244
  • Feb 2, 2020 6:04am Feb 2, 2020 6:04am
FX the Week Ahead!!
Probably can bet on volatility!
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https://www.investing.com/news/econo...s-week-2073841
  • #34,245
  • Feb 2, 2020 6:04am Feb 2, 2020 6:04am
Quoting Davit
{quote} great site one of the best.Well organized.You go forecast then click country then all data you need.Click on calendar look further info. https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar {image} {image}
thanks ..
  • #34,246
  • Feb 2, 2020 6:27am Feb 2, 2020 6:27am
FX Calendars
Of note, NZ Announcements do not show on Trading Economics - Tuesday and Thursday. They may be added though?
It pays to view at least two or even 3 Economic Calendars.
FF, Trading Economics & Investing.com
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
  • #34,247
  • Feb 2, 2020 6:37am Feb 2, 2020 6:37am
Quoting Gmo
{quote} US Dollar Index Futures - followup!! May have to rethink US strength next week!! Tagged a Trend Line 3rd touch! Yes, Davit another Trend Line. However, Lower Highs & Lower Lows! Anyone with a chart with Weekly Pivots applied? RED News Tuesday & Wednesday may dictate PA? {image}
US Dollar Index Futures
Fake out North then fell severely. Weekly candle Bearish Engulfing!
Will it respond from this trend line? A great week ahead.
Will it be a wild ride for USD?
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  • #34,248
  • Feb 2, 2020 6:58am Feb 2, 2020 6:58am
I am very fascinated by Latest impeachment news specially Dershowitz presentation in Senate.The CNN "reporters" hate Allen Dershowitz for defending the constitution by default defending Trump.Their faces are priceless.
Inserted Video

Below full presentation.Alan D is brilliant defending the constitution.
Inserted Video
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,249
  • Feb 2, 2020 7:39am Feb 2, 2020 7:39am
Quoting finally-2020
Folks, I need your opinion. Since Corona is casting its dark shadow on financial markets I don't see many trades worth taking in the week ahead regardless of data releases. In this context, AUD will probably be the worst performer and JPY the best one. Have you, pivot traders, ever experienced jumping in without looking at pivot levels? Let's talk about it ...
Jumping in without looking is just gambling. For me, pivots added another layer of discipline and to keep me onside.

Now if I’m jumping back in on a continuation trade then I look for pull back at key levels. Example:

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I would use the same concept in getting back in on some of these pairs. Watch and see if price will attempt retest of previous levels or WP, etc.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #34,250
  • Feb 2, 2020 8:51am Feb 2, 2020 8:51am
My Calendar events week one February

Sharp focus on USD AUD NZD CAD

Sun
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Projection 51.0 from 51.5. A positive reading may give some relief for AUD and NZD. Coronavirus situation may continue to be main driver for these currencies.

Mon
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI To edge up 48.5 from 47.2. Recent data came red. If red, may give some opportunities to sell USD. AU and UC on watchlist.

Tues
AUD Cash Rate To hold steady at 0.75%
AUD RBA Rate Statement RBA likely to hold rates, especially after positive data on labour market and positive CPI data last week.
NZD GDT Price Index
NZD Employment Change q/q Projection 0.3% from 0.2%. EN on watchlist.
NZD Unemployment Rate To be steady at 4.2%
AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

Weds
EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Projection 150K from 202K. Don't expect much volatility here.
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Projection 55.1 from 55.0.
AUD Retail Sales m/m Negative projection -0.2% from 0.9%.

Thurs
EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks She may reiterate her dovish sentiment. Looking for short opportunities on EUR crosses.
AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
NZD Inflation Expectations q/q

Fri
CAD Employment Change (no projection yet)
CAD Unemployment Rate
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m To edge up 0.3% from 0.1%. Even with positive data USD may tank due to recent appreciation, depends of course, on the Coronavirus situation. Just a tought, let's wait and see.
USD Non-Farm Employment Change To increase 160K from 145K.
USD Unemployment Rate To hold steady at 3.5%.

Watching for opportunities on AUD, CAD and USD crosses.
My prime candidates are EA, EN, EC, UC, AU, AC.

Currently holding some DD on EA.

Let's pile the pips!
"In the end you only trade yourself."
  • #34,251
  • Feb 2, 2020 9:56am Feb 2, 2020 9:56am
Quoting Gmo
{quote} US Dollar Index Futures Fake out North then fell severely. Weekly candle Bearish Engulfing! Will it respond from this trend line? A great week ahead. Will it be a wild ride for USD? {image}
yes, The ongoing spread of China’s coronavirus and downgrades to the Fed’s assessment of private consumption and inflation target also contributed to the Dollar’s pull-back from best levels vs most G10 rivals.
the DXY on that lvl you posted, (97.183) slipped to fresh lows for the week on Friday and looks technically bearish.

I also posted and later I deleted that there is some Shorts Increased on EUR in my COT REPORT (deleted after comments of finally-2020 that is useless).
CFTC data showed increasing of net short position on EUR. Here, I am confident, and so far I did not close my EA against me. It doesn't change longer-term fundamental balance and keeps EUR at weaker position to USD in long-term perspective. Brexit process will add problems as now EU also will have to decide cross border problems of mutual business functioning with UK.

On Friday also waiting AUD come down toghether others commodities currencys that I suppose was also because the options expiry and also large expiry related hedging .
  • #34,252
  • Edited 11:40am Feb 2, 2020 10:34am | Edited 11:40am
good for AUD?
Attachment g
  • #34,253
  • Feb 2, 2020 11:24am Feb 2, 2020 11:24am
Quoting ppxdf
good for AUD? {image}
Don' t know.

This thread was all About Price Action. Now is more About News. I do not know if this is good...
  • #34,254
  • Edited 12:19pm Feb 2, 2020 11:37am | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting renkotop
{quote} Don' t know. This thread was all About Price Action. Now is more About News. I do not know if this is good...
OK. you suggest that avoid posts about feed news, right?.
when in doubt i'm going to delete it !!. I also don't like useless things
  • #34,255
  • Edited 11:58am Feb 2, 2020 11:46am | Edited 11:58am
Quoting renkotop
{quote} Don' t know. This thread was all About Price Action. Now is more About News. I do not know if this is good...
Its not all about News for sure but ignorance is not an EDGE
Some news can help you make better decisions.There must be a balance between technical Chart PA and fundamentals News Events
If you operated 10billion dollar hedge fund would you just take trades on PA alone? I dont think so.Read Market wizards book series to get better idea how pros on higher level think and act..Its enlightening...another example read Kathy Lien news analyses pretty good consistently
I dont let every little news distract me because I know what event is a mover and what does not move the market in general.This comes from keen observations and doing the calendar then seeing how market reacts helps building this intuitively.

The liquidity post by PPXDF on China was useful info.Stability on China economy banking helps investors going back on buying AUD NZD
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #34,256
  • Feb 2, 2020 11:48am Feb 2, 2020 11:48am
  •  Egbert
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: The Weekly Pivot is the only verdic | 1,081 Posts | Online Now
Quoting renkotop
{quote} Don' t know. This thread was all About Price Action. Now is more About News. I do not know if this is good...
We still need news to create volatility for traders to trade.
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #34,257
  • Feb 2, 2020 11:53am Feb 2, 2020 11:53am
  •  Egbert
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: The Weekly Pivot is the only verdic | 1,081 Posts | Online Now
My second trade on EURCAD, closed my first one Thursday with profit.
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #34,258
  • Feb 2, 2020 11:54am Feb 2, 2020 11:54am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Its not all about News for sure but ignorance is not an EDGE Some news can help you make better decisions.There must be a balance between technical Chart PA and fundamentals News Events If you operated 10billion dollar hedge fund would you just take trades on PA alone? I dont think so.Read Market wizards book series to get better idea how pros on higher level think and act..Its enlightening...another example read Kathy Lien news analyses pretty good consistently
I' m out. Take care...
  • #34,259
  • Edited 12:10pm Feb 2, 2020 11:58am | Edited 12:10pm
Quoting renkotop
{quote} Don' t know. This thread was all About Price Action. Now is more About News. I do not know if this is good...
there is nothing wrong with " plan the trade" for coming week or 2 weeks . so it is better to analyze what is going to happen in the future.
. and we need all 3 tools in the stool to survive in this market
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  • #34,260
  • Edited 12:17pm Feb 2, 2020 12:00pm | Edited 12:17pm
Quoting renkotop
{quote} I' m out. Take care...
Look when I go to gallery looking at a painting I dont care if mother and kid next me are making noises because I am there to look at ARTwork.
Hence public forum is forum because different people post different things (nature of forum) you DISTILL what you think is useful to you
Anyway have a beer trading can be stressful.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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