Pivot Trading

I am still waiting for you to come back and take ownership of your comment.Not here to bust your balls but instead of looking at others "what can I take for myself" how about "what can I add myself to the thread"
Freeloader vs productive member.

Yes, and here there is the difference between growth mindset and fixed minset.
Thank you very much, and thank you for the tips which are always appreciated to improve

My Calendar Events week five January

Sharp focus on USD AUD EUR

Mon
EUR German Ifo Business Climate Positive forecast of 97.1 from 96.3. A higher reading could give some boost to EUR. EU ended last week at S100 zone, after the dovish ECB.

Tues
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Projection of 0.4% from -0.1%. A positive reading may continue the appreciation of USD prior to FOMC Meeting, or not, who knows what MM will do.
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m Projection of 1.2% from -2.1%.
USD CB Consumer Confidence To edge up 128.2 from 126.5. This may not be a mover, due to FOMC on Weds.
AUD CPI q/q A positive reading is expected here. Largely due to the combination of drought and wildfires that first parched and then scorched Australia’s east coast, which reflects on goods prices. Projection to edge up 0.6% from 0.5%. If green, the odds for policy easing in February are likely to diminish further, after positive numbers on labour market data last week. Be aware of RBA Meeting on February 4!
AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q Projection to be steady at 0.4%.

Weds
USD FOMC Statement The Trade war ceasefire may lead to the FED sounding more confident about U.S. economy in it's statement and keeps monetary policy unchanged.
USD Federal Funds Rate Forecast to be steady at 1.75%.
USD FOMC Press Conference Any clues on forward guidance on monetary policy from FED chair Powell will have material impact on markets.

Thurs
EUR German Prelim CPI m/m Negative projection of -0.6% from 0.5%. EUR may continue on pressure if this prints reder, plus the UK on course to formally leave the European Union on January 31.
GBP BOE Meeting Will BOE hold or cut rate? Expectations of an interest rate cut shot up earlier this month when Gov. Mark Carney and two other monetary policy committee (MPC) members have indicated if the data did not improve, they too could support a rate reduction. But more recent data has been somewhat more encouraging, and markets are now split about 50-50 as to whether the BOE will ease this week.
USD Advance GDP q/q A positive reading may give some appreciation to the USD, also taking in consideration the tone from FED on Weds, plus the Brexit situation on January 31 and risk aversion due to coronavirus at any signs of a outbreak. Projection to edge up 2.2% from 2.1% (revised from 1.9%).
CNY Manufacturing PMI This may effect on AUD and NZD.

Fri
GBP Brexit Deadline It’s UK final week as a member of the EU. Brexit to become official, so the United Kingdom will leave the European Union. The move is a result of the EU Referendum in 2016. A transition period to arrange all the details will start then, with the new status quo starting from January 1st, 2021.
EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y Positive forecast 1.4% from 1.3%.
CAD GDP m/m Projection of 0.1% from -0.1%.
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m Projection to be steady at 0.1%
USD Chicago PMI Projection of 49.0 from 48.9.

Keeping in mind that any signs of coronavirus outbreak is worsening or negative headlines from Brexit could further dampen risk sentiment, in which case, risk sensitive currencies like AUD may loose even with good data and USD and safe-heaven currencies like JPY may continue to extend gains.

I will be looking for opportunities on EUR and AUD crosses.
My prime candidates are AU, AC, AN, EA.


Let's pile the pips!

Thanks to Davit and the others who have provided me with assistance.

I am still having difficulty but I guess I will just have to figure it out on my own.

Regards
Terry

Love this Guy, Worth a watch

Trading Week Jan 27th - 31th

I Iike the sentence from Davit last week: Trade where it happens. I want to have a focus on the currencys which will likely move for every day.

Friday is Brexit Deadline. The Outcome of Brexit can have big impact on many currencypairs. Mainly EUR and GBP. I will be very carefull, trading EUR this week and GBP I will ignore until Friday at all.

EUR has a lot of news this week and a lot good news when the survey numbers are correct. All this news could give EURUSD positive direction.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Monday (Focus on EUR and USD)

10:00
EUR IFO - Business Climate (Jan)
EURCurrent Assessment (Jan)
EUR IFO - Expectations (Jan)
Very likely positve numbers for IFO. EURUSD was end of last week at nice spot. R100 and look way to oversold. If PA and IFO Event is positiv, I could buy EURUSD very cheap.

16:00
USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)
If positive Buy USDJPY possible. USDJPY was oversold last week. But carefull: USDJPY has still long way down.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Tuesday (Focus on USD)

14:30
USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (Dec)
USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (Dec)
USD Durable Goods Orders (Dec)
USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Dec)

16:00
USD Consumer Confidence

Lot of news for USD this day. If events are positiv: PPE
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Wednesday (Focus on AUD, EUR ,USD and NZD)

01:30
AUD CPI YoY
AUD CPI QoQ
AUD CPI Trimmed Mean QoQ
AUD CPI Trimmed Mean YoY
AUD CPI Weighted Median QoQ
AUD CPI Weighted Median YoY

Higher consumer inflation expectations. If numbers are good around 0.68000 would be a nice place for buying AUDUSD.

08:00
EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Feb)
Expectations are good. Maybe a possibility to jump again on a BUY EURUSD.

20:00
USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
20:30
USD FOMC Press Conference

Lets see, what happens. Most likely no change…

22:45
NZD Trade Balance (YoY) (Dec)
NZD Exports (Dec)

NZD is at the moment on intersting Area from Technical view point. Wheter it will jump up or it will fall further. On Wednesday it should be clearer if NZDUSD could fall and hold under support area t 0.66000.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Thursday (Focus on EUR)

09:55
EUR Unemployment Change (Dec)

The expected numbers are looking very good. If unemployment rate in Germany is really taht low, it could boost EURUSD. Willl look for longs on EURUSD: PPE!

11:00
EUR Business Climate (Jan)
EUR Unemployment Change

13:00
GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision
NO Trade, since Friday Brexit Deadline!

14:00
EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Jan) PREL
Again positve expected for EUR pairs: PPE!

14:30
USD GDP Annualized QoQ
USD Personal Consumption
USD GDP Price Index
USD Core PCE QoQ

Stronger numbers than expected could give buying oppertunities for USDJPY.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Friday (BREXIT DAY. Focus on GBP)

I will watch intensivelly GBP pairs and see where price gets dumbed and where it wants to go. Lets see….

Attached my calender with colors. When I copie it from Onenote than its only text here. Sorry for that.

Hi Davit,

Totally get what you are saying. You have a right to be a ball buster, I am not offended. Glad you take such an interest in all those you mentor. My weekend has been very busy so did not have time to create the proper response. Later today, the response will include my improving weekly analysis and more real time ideas and thoughts about how events played out according to what I projected. Hopefully that will lend insight to others.

Not to cry over spilt milk, I have been spending time with a dear friend who is on her last few weeks of life, cancer. Trading and life go hand in hand. Oddly, so do health and death. Thanks Davit.

market should open with commodities down.
AUD , CAD and NZD certainly losing to all other currencies.
as usual at times like these, JPY strong.
EUR also probably stronger than the 3 commodities (AUD , CAD and NZd)
NZD is probably the weakest currency among them all.

This can't be right.

AN and EN are in a down trend on the four larger timeframes. NC and NJ are in an uptrend on three of the four larger timeframes.

Even fundamentally it is incorrect. The NZD interest rate is the highest of all the currencies you mentioned. Also NZ's economy is more diversified than Australia's and Canada's.

lets wait the market open.
so, you go to this website and check where your NZD is.

https://finviz.com/forex_performance.ashx

Having no time last week to trade, I am happy to see this thread is still growing and doing well. Congrats to all the gains you have managed to get over the past week!
I am going to mainly focus on EUR, USD, GBP and AUD this week.

Overall analysis for each currency:

AUD - The currency suffered badly on Friday due to Coronavirus, Fridays D1 closed slightly below the Doji candle which was formed on D1 Wed last week.
Due to the expansion of the virus, I expect the Fridays the scenario to be repeated on Monday by London's market. Especially, having no AUD data realised until Wed Morning (forecast is Green hence the AUD might get pushed even deeper). The AU W1 candle closed below S100 - to me, this is a massive Bear sign and will not countertrade unless PA confirms the north move. Personally I think the price might visit the 0.6800 - strong support/resistance (price rejected few times on D1 chart) before making any up move.

EUR - Very strong bear last week mainly due to monetary announcements. EU price on W1closed slightly below S100 - the nearest support to this price is 1.09800 area. Positive signals for German PMI and ZEW might create an opportunity for short term long positions. Deal with the UK potentially should push EUR up as it happened in previous months. Potential uncertainty might arise in the meantime - will watch closely news this week, and will take action accordingly to PA.
the past, quite few news on the calendar for EUR this week, main impact on Euro will have Brexit this week.

USD - Coronavirus might impact the currency strength, CB Consumer Confidence on Tues - not expecting a massive impact on the market.
FED this WED, Expecting trades to cash transactions before the rate announcement, Rate expected to remain unchanged. UJ in focus

GBP - A massive week for GBP this week.
The good news about the rates
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1ZN1I0
Brexit - 29th key date for Brexit, - awaiting the news then trade accordingly.


Cheers
Luke

did you see?

probably falls, because coronavirus. it is natural to worsen the performance of companies on the stock market linked to the tourism and travel sector.
Airlines, tourism companies etc. these Chinese will soon start to cancel flights, these tourism planes are certainly will be grounded to avoid contamination.

Never mind Brexit, It appears we are already experiencing RED HERRING events this week. Corona Virus, and Rocket attack on US Embassy in Iraq have put markets in a foul mood. AUD getting beat down further. This is serious stuff thanks to airliners diseases are able to spread around the world rapidly. They should halt all flights out of China. We now have cases in Canada and the USA. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#595b0eb511dc
There's even an outbreak in Mexico.

Great sense of humour.

Here is my analysis for the week. I made some good colors but they didn't copy in.
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
Although impeachment trials are underway, it is felt Trump will not be impeached as he is backed by the Republican party who holds the majority. This would support a stronger USD
FED Rate Announcement – likely priced into the market
BREXIT
GBP – Monetary Policy and Vote, Official Bank Rate

EUR –general sentiment dovish. LaGuarde dovish comments, overall Brexit impact. Divorce is messy.
USD – bearish however softening
AUD – dovish – wildfires, still not clear how that will impact the country overall. Signing phase 1 US China trade deal is a positive. China's caution and slowed activity due to the coronavirus is also weakening AUD
CAD –dovish, commodity country. Coronavirus scares in China and abroad reducing demand for oil as travel slows down. Chinese are staying home.
NZD slow news week here.
GBP – much volatility here

Pairs I am watching:
EU, EA, AC, UC


SUN
No news, Australian holiday.

MON
EUR – German IFO Business Climate – 97 from 96.3,
Current Assement, Expectations 99.4 from 98.8
Business Expections – 95 from 93.8
Not expecting any big surprises from the EUR. Forecast as positive, the above may give a lift to the EUR but LaGarde dovish sentiment last week combined with any red outcome may drive the pair closer to support levels at 1.4400-4450 for EC. S100 coincides with the LT support on EC, if we positive news is not strong enough to lift the EUR after LaGuarde comments.
EURUSD – looks like a low hanging fruit opportunity. If EUR news is positive as projected, it might be a move north toward WPP. Not a lot of room but a smaller opoortunity. Not looking for any big moves north.
EA – watching for move to S61 or greater with possible positive EUR news printing above, then watch for AUD CPI for move south to WPP

USD – NEW Home sales – Increase forecast to 725-730K(depending on the source) from 719K. Based on the strong USD, it is likely this will hold but will wait for actual. EURUSD have room to the downside should dovish EUR sentiment continue in spite of any positive news as above on EUR.

TUES
USD – Consumer Confidence – forecast increase to 128.2 from 126.5 If prints as forecast, I will watch here for move north on USDCAD toward R61, ADR would support this move, then watch tomorrows pending home sales for a possible move back to WPP.
AUD-CPI-forecast increased to .6% from .5%, CPI trimmed mean unchanged at .4%, CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation. Higher numbers could bolster the AUD in its current weakened stance. This could also drive AC toward R61 area if comes in as forecast, CAD GDP on Friday could drive this back to WPP if comes in as forecast.
EUR-German Consumer Confidence – forecast increase to 9.8 from 9.6

WED
USD Pending Home Sales - .3 from 1.2% - expect little or no impact as it is just before FED Rate Decision announcement. This is not expected to change.
FED Rate Decision Announcement – no change expected. This is likely already priced into the market.
FOMC Statement – looking for clues to future possible rate cuts, sentiment is dovish with possible later rate cuts in 2020
NZD – Trade Balance, Exports

Thursday
EUR – German Unemployment, forecast unchanged at 5%
EUR – Unemployment Rate – forecast unchanged at 7.5% Most significant news for the EUR this week, in addition to BREXIT impact. I would guess that the final confirmed loss of such a significant country in the EU would affect the EUR. Will watch closely on Friday
EUR-Business Climate – forecast -.26 from -.25. This indicates a low confidence in the business climate, mostly industrial.
GBP- Monetary Policy Report, Bank Votes, Official Bank Rate – Rate expected to remain unchanged at .75%. This has likely been priced into the market already with BREXIT on Friday possibly creating some volatility.
EUR-Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices – Forecast increase to 1.7% from 1.5%
USD-Advanced GDP – Forecast to increase to 2.2% from 2.1% - considered to have the highest impact of all 3 GDP numbers released. Numbers are released quarterly and over 3 months each time.

FRI
EUR – CPI – forecast decrease to 1.2% from 1.3%
GDP Core– remains unchanged at .2%
CPI – forecast increase to 1.4% from 1.3%
GDP – Q4 forecast decrease from 1.2% to 1.1%
Overall mixed EUR News here may have little definitive impact overall
CAD – GDP – forecast to increase to .1% from -.1%
USD – Chicago PMI – forecast decrease to 48.7 from 48.9
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – increased to 99.3 from 99.1

trade war
deal on course with china
now, US is heading to europe and india

if we do not have expressive Economic Calendar today. it Means Coronavirus Updates Should Be The Main Highlight for prices on that lvl

The outcome of German Ifo Business Climatenegative was negative with 95.9. EURUSD is heading down at the moment. Might find some nice support at 1.10000. If USD New Home Sales today are positive, maybe it could go further down, if not, it would be good place for buy if PA shows the same.

USDJPY AUDJPY NZDJPY
Sizable Gaps on these pairs! Oanda Live (Commission Account hence suffix -5)
Prefer to Sell Rallies! Patience!

Just a reminder, as Davit says...When there is carnage there is opportunity.
Some nice setups being developing..