Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2333 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #46,641
  • Jan 23, 2020 3:19am Jan 23, 2020 3:19am
I know some of us like our statistics on this thread. I was working on something last night and discovered that in the past 2 years on GU, on bullish days, price also went bearish from the open line by more than 20 pips, around 45% of the time. Same with bearish days. It went bullish by more than 20 pips around 45% of the time.

This was an eye opener, as I used to think if price went 10 pips or more in one direction from open, that would determine whether the day was going to be red or green.

If we increase the filter to 35 pips or more from open, the head fakes drop to around 25%. In my little brain, this means if we were to set pending orders at midnight for more than 40 pips away on both sides, there's a much smaller chance that we'll hit the orders on both side, and therefore less chance of whipsaw. Just an observation. Comments welcome.
  • #46,642
  • Jan 23, 2020 3:20am Jan 23, 2020 3:20am
Quoting lemercenaire
Jumped into JP's yard. Double-dipped short. Z-Line play. {image} Out {image}
i was long off the 8 am bar and took my ten - nice and quick, with no countering needed!
  • #46,643
  • Jan 23, 2020 3:29am Jan 23, 2020 3:29am
[quote=ia1979;12716854]I know some of us like our statistics on this thread. I was working on something last night and discovered that in the past 2 years on GU, on bullish days, price also went bearish from the open line by more than 20 pips, around 45% of the time. Same with bearish days. It went bullish by more than 20 pips around 45% of the time. This was an eye opener, as I used to think if price went 10 pips or more

That observation and those stats are Frequency Distribution which i thrive on.
If they then happen example, 8 out of 10 or 80% or better you are then onto a winner.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #46,644
  • Jan 23, 2020 3:30am Jan 23, 2020 3:30am
Quoting ia1979
I know some of us like our statistics on this thread. I was working on something last night and discovered that in the past 2 years on GU, on bullish days, price also went bearish from the open line by more than 20 pips, around 45% of the time. Same with bearish days. It went bullish by more than 20 pips around 45% of the time. This was an eye opener, as I used to think if price went 10 pips or more in one direction from open, that would determine whether the day was going to be red or green. If we increase the filter to 35 pips or more from open,...
I readily admit to trading off stats, but numbers run the world.
a nice FD stat is look how often the daily pivot gets reached, as an example.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #46,645
  • Jan 23, 2020 3:35am Jan 23, 2020 3:35am
+5% GU 15 min break. Closed my GU 00-00 4 hr short, added in more as it broke the low again, for an additional 5%. I COULD HAVE longed the Frankfurt break and grabbed +10 while my short positions were sitting negative, buuuut I didn't. I may short the daily low and look for 10 with a small lot....
  • #46,646
  • Jan 23, 2020 3:37am Jan 23, 2020 3:37am
Quoting BrokeCollege
+5% GU 15 min break. Closed my GU 00-00 4 hr short, added in more as it broke the low again, for an additional 5%. I COULD HAVE longed the Frankfurt break and grabbed +10 while my short positions were sitting negative, buuuut I didn't. I may short the daily low and look for 10 with a small lot....
steady...….lol have you seen all the inside bars on the 4 hour.
you are doing well. dont forget we will get bad days.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #46,647
  • Jan 23, 2020 3:39am Jan 23, 2020 3:39am
Quoting billytt
{quote} I readily admit to trading off stats, but numbers run the world. a nice FD stat is look how often the daily pivot gets reached, as an example.
Good to hear from you Billy. Thanks for your input. Funny you should mention the daily pivot. I was looking at that last night on EU and it is very rare that either S1 or R1 don't get hit. Most days you will hit one or the other. Or both. Still trying to work out a way to figure out how often the actual daily pivot gets hit, using an Excel formula but couldn't quite get the formula to work. Any thoughts anyone?
  • #46,648
  • Jan 23, 2020 3:45am Jan 23, 2020 3:45am
Quoting ia1979
I know some of us like our statistics on this thread. I was working on something last night and discovered that in the past 2 years on GU, on bullish days, price also went bearish from the open line by more than 20 pips, around 45% of the time. Same with bearish days. It went bullish by more than 20 pips around 45% of the time. This was an eye opener, as I used to think if price went 10 pips or more in one direction from open, that would determine whether the day was going to be red or green. If we increase the filter to 35 pips or more from open,...
I guess these stats also show that as long as we are within so many pips of the daily open, there's a strong chance price will return to the daily open.

Billy, I take it the midnight 4 hour bar on GU is broken on both sides, most days? That's what my stats are telling me.
  • #46,649
  • Jan 23, 2020 3:46am Jan 23, 2020 3:46am
Quoting billytt
{quote} steady...….lol have you seen all the inside bars on the 4 hour. you are doing well. dont forget we will get bad days.
Hah! I am prepared for a bad day; a bottle of wine is patiently waiting.
  • #46,650
  • Jan 23, 2020 3:47am Jan 23, 2020 3:47am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} There's a little bit more to it than the break out box. Posted all this ages ago with live trades. Watch the 15 minute bar before 16.00 which is a very important time. Why ? Currency 'fix'. Have a read of this: https://www.investopedia.com/article...-be-rigged.asp
Very interesting Claudia. Thank you for the read. I will look into it!
  • #46,651
  • Jan 23, 2020 3:49am Jan 23, 2020 3:49am
Quoting BrokeCollege
+5% GU 15 min break. Closed my GU 00-00 4 hr short, added in more as it broke the low again, for an additional 5%. I COULD HAVE longed the Frankfurt break and grabbed +10 while my short positions were sitting negative, buuuut I didn't. I may short the daily low and look for 10 with a small lot....
Hopefully not so broke any more
  • #46,652
  • Jan 23, 2020 3:52am Jan 23, 2020 3:52am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} I guess these stats also show that as long as we are within so many pips of the daily open, there's a strong chance price will return to the daily open. Billy, I take it the midnight 4 hour bar on GU is broken on both sides, most days? That's what my stats are telling me.
Break both ends most days yes.
That is what I want, my perfect scenario.
The first break example Hi, we do not know if it will keep going up , we also get jitters ( I still do) because we think oh its gone up 20 ?? it might reverse. (it doesn't matter).
BUT THEN, if high breaks for x amount and retraces to break low, we can then put the adr on chart because we have the high number.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #46,653
  • Jan 23, 2020 4:00am Jan 23, 2020 4:00am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} I guess these stats also show that as long as we are within so many pips of the daily open, there's a strong chance price will return to the daily open. Billy, I take it the midnight 4 hour bar on GU is broken on both sides, most days? That's what my stats are telling me.
t 09-54
look at cable right now. the high is 13151 and the current low is 13118.
if we have a retrace up and it breaks the high of 13151, we would expect it to go up to 13204 area.
that is low of 13118 added to adr of 86 = 13204 area.
or if it keeps dropping, that is the high 13151 minus adr of 86 =13065.

it is better if the high breaks.
Don't forget even then it can fail, we just adjust the range.
Trade well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #46,654
  • Jan 23, 2020 4:18am Jan 23, 2020 4:18am
Quoting billytt
{quote} t 09-54 look at cable right now. the high is 13151 and the current low is 13118. if we have a retrace up and it breaks the high of 13151, we would expect it to go up to 13204 area. that is low of 13118 added to adr of 86 = 13204 area. or if it keeps dropping, that is the high 13151 minus adr of 86 =13065. it is better if the high breaks. Don't forget even then it can fail, we just adjust the range. Trade well.
are you referring to the 5day ADR there ?
  • #46,655
  • Jan 23, 2020 4:33am Jan 23, 2020 4:33am
Quoting mtacki
{quote} are you referring to the 5day ADR there ?
I always use the 5 day adr, and my adr which does not include sunday.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #46,656
  • Jan 23, 2020 4:38am Jan 23, 2020 4:38am
Quoting billytt
{quote} t 09-54 look at cable right now. the high is 13151 and the current low is 13118. if we have a retrace up and it breaks the high of 13151, we would expect it to go up to 13204 area. that is low of 13118 added to adr of 86 = 13204 area. or if it keeps dropping, that is the high 13151 minus adr of 86 =13065. it is better if the high breaks. Don't forget even then it can fail, we just adjust the range. Trade well.
Inside bars galore right now. Let's see...
  • #46,657
  • Jan 23, 2020 4:44am Jan 23, 2020 4:44am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Inside bars galore right now. Let's see...
I normally trade inside bars aggressively , ie trade the actual inside bar and not the mother bar, I would of had problems if I had done that this time. lol.
more bars normally mean a bigger breakout.
if I had any fails I would be trading the inside bars.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #46,658
  • Jan 23, 2020 4:47am Jan 23, 2020 4:47am
market is slow, maybe usa oil inventory has something to do with it.
actually I don't care.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #46,659
  • Jan 23, 2020 5:21am Jan 23, 2020 5:21am
usd/chf still only 21 range, just above the 00-00 4 hr range.
Talk about temptation.

I want a trigger not tempting.
t 11-21
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #46,660
  • Jan 23, 2020 5:25am Jan 23, 2020 5:25am
PRAISE THE LORD, I have a sign.
usd/chf it just dropped into the dark zone..
hmmmmmmmmmm now I can trade, just weigh my options.
t 11-25
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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