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  • #101,201
  • Jan 22, 2020 8:24am Jan 22, 2020 8:24am
Quoting hans91
{quote} Sorry buddy, your explanation seems logical to me but I doubt EU will drop to 1.05 this year, the main target I think is the gap to be filled around 1.07xxx is seems likely although it's questionable it will reach there or not. But I agree with u long term EU is downtrend and the issue is not only happening with Italy but also import tariffs from Trump will be applied to EU soon maybe. this will be helping EU bears to make it further much drop.
the gap is questionable, yes, but Trump today praised the European Union and saw that the Fed all this time made a mistake.
  • #101,202
  • Jan 22, 2020 8:27am Jan 22, 2020 8:27am
Quoting Marcieny
{quote} the gap is questionable, yes, but Trump today praised the European Union and saw that the Fed all this time made a mistake.
thats because Trump is in Davos, hes always in a good mood when hes in Davos, just wait till you see him back at the white house....
i dont think Trump talk has much impact on Euro... but
its always possible that EUROPE would have something where they are going to shoot themselves in the foot. that drives Euro down.

if you want to talk about the US, we are already seeing 0 to just 1 rate cut for 2020..... 0 being the likelier and a rate hike maybe back in the table if positive sentiments occur after the US China phase 1 trade deal signed...

so im not going to be betting against the USD anytime soon....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #101,203
  • Jan 22, 2020 8:29am Jan 22, 2020 8:29am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} thats because Trump is in Davos, hes always in a good mood when hes in Davos, just wait till you see him back at the white house.... i dont think Trump talk has much impact on Euro... but its always possible that EUROPE would have something where they are going to shoot themselves in the foot. that drives Euro down.
ok expecting an aggressive drop in the dollar on the 29 of this month.
  • #101,204
  • Jan 22, 2020 8:31am Jan 22, 2020 8:31am
Quoting Marcieny
{quote} ok expecting an aggressive drop in the dollar on the 29 of this month.
you misread me....

in fact i said we wont be seeing any rate cut this year from the FED.... and a likely hood of rate hikes coming back into the frame.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #101,205
  • Jan 22, 2020 8:33am Jan 22, 2020 8:33am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} 28 pips range and you call this a roller coaster?? god i miss the good old days when EURUSD moved 100-200 pips a day....

They will back be soon enough my friend,

By then FF Should have more then half of the planet all trained up and proficient for the forex market.

maybe not
  • #101,206
  • Jan 22, 2020 8:36am Jan 22, 2020 8:36am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} you misread me.... in fact i said we wont be seeing any rate cut this year from the FED.... and a likely hood of rate hikes coming back into the frame.....
the trump is thanking that finally a currency will be able to sink the dollar while the indices reach the maximum.
  • #101,207
  • Jan 22, 2020 8:41am Jan 22, 2020 8:41am
Quoting Marcieny
{quote} the trump is thanking that finally a currency will be able to sink the dollar while the indices reach the maximum.
question.... Trump has been trying to talk the USD down, and since him getting in the office what has the USD Done? it surely hasnt fallen apart....
why??

Because the US Dollar value is determined by the FED using monetary policy tools.... and atm US is still one of the very few economies around the globe thats warranting rate hikes rather than cuts...

When US Cuts, everybody cuts...
But when US HIkes, everbody is stuck....

thats why USD will stay Bid unless Europe suddenly find inflation and magically sorted out its union's fiscal problems.....

The Biggest problem is that USD is still VERY attractive when you look at EURO being at -0.4%, who the hell would park their money in EURO and lose all that value?? whats worse is that ECB looks ready to even go into -0.5% based on recent comments.
BOE also being seen to look at cutting 25bps in 2020,

but FED possibly 0 cuts....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #101,208
  • Jan 22, 2020 8:42am Jan 22, 2020 8:42am
Quoting hans91
{quote} Sorry buddy, your explanation seems logical to me but I doubt EU will drop to 1.05 this year, the main target I think is the gap to be filled around 1.07xxx is seems likely although it's questionable it will reach there or not. But I agree with u long term EU is downtrend and the issue is not only happening with Italy but also import tariffs from Trump will be applied to EU soon maybe. this will be helping EU bears to make it further much drop.
Technically EURUSD can reach 1.0444 until year end by just dropping with current pace and without even breaking below the blue support line.. I am not saying it will.. Again: Just saying that it is technically possible..

Stay Green
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly-Year-End-Lows.png Size: 17 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #101,209
  • Jan 22, 2020 8:44am Jan 22, 2020 8:44am
Nice W on the 5 minute but it stalled out right around where I went long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5.png Size: 60 KB


I am covering here for small loss and standing down. Looking now for short side trades.

As Porky Pig would say, "A-yee-bid-duh, A-yee-bid-duh, A-yee-bid-duh, That's all folks!"
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #101,210
  • Jan 22, 2020 8:47am Jan 22, 2020 8:47am
Heres the reason why i dont see ANY cuts for 2020....

If the 3Y1Y libor swap spread stays where it is at -14bps, fed doesnt have the necessary -25bps for them to make the cut.

notice that in the chart. only time the fed raises is if the orange line dances around the green +25bps level
and vice versa...

Remember... FED decision on interest rates is based on factors and what market is telling them.... Fed hasnt been in proactive stance to move monetary policy ahead of market in a very very long time and will not change anytime soon....
FED will let the market tell them if they can hike or cut.

ATM FED is stuck in limbo....

no cuts, but possibly trending back into +bps and a hawkish tone from fed may start to return....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 130 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #101,211
  • Jan 22, 2020 9:19am Jan 22, 2020 9:19am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Technically EURUSD can reach 1.0444 until year end by just dropping with current pace and without even breaking below the blue support line.. I am not saying it will.. Again: Just saying that it is technically possible.. Stay Green {image}
This is scary, but it is also very possible. If this happens, I am going to treat this Pair like a stock. Buy big and hold for the rally back up. Thank you for shedding some light on this. Keep on brother. 1.108 didnt hold, but you are still my hero.
"Your Habits Will Determine Your Future"
  • #101,212
  • Jan 22, 2020 9:28am Jan 22, 2020 9:28am
Good news here folks

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/97...by-zew-surveys
  • #101,213
  • Jan 22, 2020 9:42am Jan 22, 2020 9:42am
Hello People! "De mi pasado, preguntas todo, que como fue... si antes de amar hay que tenerse fé"

I awaked romantic today.

Guys I see easy this. A little more down min 1.1058 max 1.1020. then BOOOM!!! 1.1170.
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #101,214
  • Jan 22, 2020 11:08am Jan 22, 2020 11:08am
mid-to-long term positioning...

TP: 1.12000 handle
Entry range: 1.10700 handle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_VWAP.png Size: 64 KB
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #101,215
  • Jan 22, 2020 11:16am Jan 22, 2020 11:16am
Turtle mode
  • #101,216
  • Jan 22, 2020 11:45am Jan 22, 2020 11:45am
Friday is going to be pretty active.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 01 24 2020.PNG Size: 43 KB
"Your Habits Will Determine Your Future"
  • #101,217
  • Jan 22, 2020 11:45am Jan 22, 2020 11:45am
Quoting Mitiblotch
Let me put my trade in what I think. Please let no one follow this trade, as we are sitting at support. Short 1.1081. SL 1.1140. TP open. I am satisfied with the rejection at the daily pivot sitting at 1.1095. I regret removing my sell limit order.
I have been busy with work and didn't have a single minute to check charts so missed the down move to 1070. I don't like the fact that N.Y. eventually bough this thing up. I am beginning to believe that bears lost this battle woefully. The best they may get tomorrow is a small spike down and a fast move up. No more selling for me in the short term.
  • #101,218
  • Jan 22, 2020 11:51am Jan 22, 2020 11:51am
Quoting LCForex
Hello People! "De mi pasado, preguntas todo, que como fue... si antes de amar hay que tenerse fé" I awaked romantic today. Guys I see easy this. A little more down min 1.1058 max 1.1020. then BOOOM!!! 1.1170.
I think the price don't goes down any more than that for now.
  • #101,219
  • Jan 22, 2020 11:53am Jan 22, 2020 11:53am
H1 Status Update

Bullish momentum is progressing.. The bold Dashed-RED line is most crucial for more bull power.. Meanwhile I just scribbled my personal projection in case bulls take the lead.. I hope it doesn't end up as wishful thinking lol..

Stay Green
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H1-Status-Update.png Size: 31 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #101,220
  • Jan 22, 2020 11:58am Jan 22, 2020 11:58am
  •  dmj120
  • | Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Newbie with professional aspiration | 108 Posts
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
H1 Status Update Bullish momentum is progressing.. The bold Dashed-RED line is most crucial for more bull power.. Meanwhile I just scribbled my personal projection in case bulls take the lead.. I hope it doesn't end up as wishful thinking lol.. Stay Green {image}
I'm targeting 1096, so I hope you're right
School of hard knocks
dmj120 Return This Year: na
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