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1H Swing Trading on EURUSD

  • #141
  • Jan 18, 2020 1:29am Jan 18, 2020 1:29am
Trend 20-3 is gone without much success for me mostly because of the additional risk I'm taking now, but it's OK, I can live with that.
In the absolute, having followed the signal would have result in a small loss. I was feeling the price having a hard time to take off, and with MSRSi already above 80, those were signs to take some precautions.

Now trading 20-4 down trend, I will talk about it when closed.

/!\ Important notice ! From now on, I'm using a period of 96 instead of 100 for both MA and MSRSI.
I think that it doesn't change too much the picture, it's just that 96 translates to a round number of 4 days instead of 4 days and 4 hours.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #142
  • Jan 19, 2020 9:10pm Jan 19, 2020 9:10pm
I use this system and combine with some PA on many pairs and find that it works great. The condition is to be patient and read back the settings to be sure. I believe this system can predict at least the short term very well. Thanks broketrader for sharing it.
Keep the faith and keep going
  • #143
  • Jan 20, 2020 2:36am Jan 20, 2020 2:36am
Quoting Niily
I use this system and combine with some PA on many pairs and find that it works great. The condition is to be patient and read back the settings to be sure. I believe this system can predict at least the short term very well. Thanks broketrader for sharing it.
Thanks for the comment, I would prefer to say that it provides a direction instead that it predicts ;-)
Predictions are sort of mystical things that only gurus can provide and it would made of me one of them, thing that I'm not !

I think that it's a good thing to combine it with something you have already, I think that, with time, seeing your own system confirmed or improved by it, will help to build confidence in it.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #144
  • Edited 7:25am Jan 20, 2020 5:34am | Edited 7:25am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} Thanks for the comment, I would prefer to say that it provides a direction instead that it predicts ;-) Predictions are sort of mystical things that only gurus can provide and it would made of me one of them, thing that I'm not ! I think that it's a good thing to combine it with something you have already, I think that, with time, seeing your own system confirmed or improved by it, will help to build confidence in it.
Yes it supports very well on the next trend. Although my settings are extremely extreme and rarely after added to this but it can get high correct. Anyway very thank you.
Keep the faith and keep going
  • #146
  • Jan 20, 2020 8:25am Jan 20, 2020 8:25am
Quoting mselvi
Try This EA with 10% weekly profit and Max DD 20% all time. {file}
Welcome as new member of my Ignore list, you're done posting more Bullshit here !
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #147
  • Jan 20, 2020 10:30pm Jan 20, 2020 10:30pm
Dear broketrrader!
Very interest system
Subscripted!
THX
Find it The Best Entry Points
  • #148
  • Jan 21, 2020 8:46am Jan 21, 2020 8:46am
Hello and thanks for the system idea!
Now I see a period where
- purple lines - sell triggers
- green lines - buy triggers
Could you please show me how to filter that situations? I like this system very much and want to understand your technic as well as possible.
Thank you!
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Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #149
  • Jan 21, 2020 2:07pm Jan 21, 2020 2:07pm
Quoting since80808
Hello and thanks for the system idea! Now I see a period where - purple lines - sell triggers - green lines - buy triggers Could you please show me how to filter that situations? I like this system very much and want to understand your technic as well as possible. Thank you! {image}
You're welcome!

What's missing in your chart is the trend-line. Look at the chart below, if eventually it could have saved you from the first false breakout of MA96, certainly not from the second as the trend-line gets also broken.

So, strictly speaking, there is no way to filter out those false signals, again, the system is not perfect and in my humble opinion, it's a waste of time trying to make it perfect with some filter, better to learn to live with it, simple as it is, that's just what I'm trying to do.

And looking at your example, just following the signal would have given a positive result at the end of the trend, you can see it visually. Not that bad finally ;-)

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #150
  • Jan 21, 2020 2:22pm Jan 21, 2020 2:22pm
Just closed trade 20-4, at what I think, is the bottom of its trend, so I entered a 20-5X trade, a peak trade, not a signal one.

I did exactly the same as in my messy trade, the one that made me loss 50% of account but this time, I remained in line with the signal which was short and I was right, now back to normal risk trading...

Getting ready for next 20-5, MSRSI is already improving, the down trend 20-4 is well in place now but we are still far from it and from MA96, time to rest and sleep...

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #151
  • Jan 23, 2020 10:39pm Jan 23, 2020 10:39pm
Looks good and clean. Good luck broketrader!
Working,to be the best !
  • #152
  • Jan 23, 2020 10:52pm Jan 23, 2020 10:52pm
Again, I didn't wait for all the signals to be valid before being fully in, luckily this time I saved my skin but it won't be the case next time if I continue doing this.

And again the system teaches me that not following it scrupulously can be very costly !

The trend line was broken clearly, MSRSI well above 40 but price remained below MA96 at close saying to not enter yet.

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And if that was not enough, there was that clear rejection of MA96 that I also choose to ignore !

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Waiting for the next signal as we are not done yet with trend 20-4, the updated chart looking like this:

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #153
  • Jan 23, 2020 11:30pm Jan 23, 2020 11:30pm
Quoting broketrader
Again, I didn't wait for all the signals to be valid before being fully in, luckily this time I saved my skin but it won't be the case next time if I continue doing this. And again the system teaches me that not following it scrupulously can be very costly ! The trend line was broken clearly, MSRSI well above 40 but price remained below MA96 at close saying to not enter yet. {image} And if that was not enough, there was that clear rejection of MA96 that I also choose to ignore ! {image} Waiting for the next signal as we are not done yet with trend...
it sounds like to me you really need an EA. If you have an EA trade for you, you won't have to worry about entering trades against your own criteria. The EA doesn't have to trade for you totally, but it can at least help you enter trades that only meet 100% of your criteria. Then you can manage your trades from there how you please.
  • #154
  • Jan 24, 2020 12:03am Jan 24, 2020 12:03am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} it sounds like to me you really need an EA. If you have an EA trade for you, you won't have to worry about entering trades against your own criteria. The EA doesn't have to trade for you totally, but it can at least help you enter trades that only meet 100% of your criteria. Then you can manage your trades from there how you please.
You're completely right and moreover being software engineer and knowing MQL quite well, I would need nobody except myself to write it.

Now, the thing is that I'm taking the challenge of educating myself to be capable to follow a system while trying to avoid all the traps we all know, fear, greed, you name them... just to make of me a better trader and a better me. That could sound weird, but those are things that an EA will never provide.

I don't know if it will take me one year or the rest of my life, if I ever succeed, but I like trading also exactly because of that difficulty and because I think that I'm smart enough to succeed and even if in reality maybe I'm not, who cares ? So moving even only the decision part to an EA would remove a big chunk of the fun from the equation and then why trade ? To make money of course, but I want also the manner, for me is important... but that's just personal.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #155
  • Jan 27, 2020 11:36pm Jan 27, 2020 11:36pm
As this thing is not capable of finding its bottom, lol, in the meantime, I have been studying some other pairs just to see if I could somehow diversify my trading...
Well, interestingly enough to give it a try, I have found EURJPY which almost follows EURUSD but with some very interesting and certainly intrinsic properties...

First, it's a bit more volatile than EU but also travels more pips in almost every trend.
This is a bit balanced by its pip value which is actually ~90% of EU but will need also lower lots than EU when traded.

And second, it's less influenced by USD news as it's not a USD pair but still follows EU path so this can be interesting to trade when a signal is given during big impact news like NFP and I'm thinking, of course, about FOMC tomorrow.

Below are two charts of EU and EJ with the 4 trends we had so far this year.
Look at how they are similar, and only 20-1 was bigger on EU and while 20-3 was very weak on EU, I remember it very well, it was quite impressive on EJ !

EURUSD
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EURJPY
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I'm still thinking about how I will split my trades between these two, 50/50 every time or, one or the other according to conditions/incoming news, etc...
Any thoughts welcome!
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #156
  • Jan 29, 2020 11:36pm Jan 29, 2020 11:36pm
Maybe today is the day !

I would like a clear close near 1.1020, that would be well above MA96 and trend-line giving a clear signal.
Interestingly, EURJPY is diverging and making new lows ! I think that one of the two is lying ;-)

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #157
  • Jan 30, 2020 2:05am Jan 30, 2020 2:05am
The signal is valid on EU, not yet on EJ but should soon follow if it's not a fake one. So added 0,2 lots to both of them.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #158
  • Jan 30, 2020 5:10am Jan 30, 2020 5:10am
please check CHFJPY.This pair would probably match your criteria as well.perhaps better then EURJPY.
good luck.
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  • #159
  • Jan 30, 2020 5:37am Jan 30, 2020 5:37am
Quoting montglane
please check CHFJPY.This pair would probably match your criteria as well.perhaps better then EURJPY. good luck. {image}
This system was at the beginning only for EURUSD, I decided recently also to trade EURJPY as it mostly follows EURUSD but I will certainly not add more, at least for the time being.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #160
  • Jan 30, 2020 5:44am Jan 30, 2020 5:44am
thats ok
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