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Pivot Trading

  • #33,861
  • Jan 16, 2020 5:27am Jan 16, 2020 5:27am
Phase 1 completed, AUD responds positively to the agreement, however USD is more restricted. A rather underwhelming response to the official Phase One signing ceremony and us$dollar languishing near or at new lows against most major counterparts and the DXY trying to defend the 97,000 level. it seems no make sense.
I expected DXY above 97.5 .
Perhaps awaiting the fundamentals of events and the various macro releases from the US on Thursday including retail sales for the holiday season .
  • #33,862
  • Jan 16, 2020 5:45am Jan 16, 2020 5:45am
A thought on UJ

Today's US Retail Sales is expected to be positive; IF so, I'll have UJ under the radar and seek opportunities to go short on UJ. Why? Because tomorrow US Building/Housing figures are expected to appear quite weak as according to experts building activities normally slow down towards year end. UJ is currently being traded between R61.8 and R38.2...

Anything can happen!
  • #33,863
  • Jan 16, 2020 5:56am Jan 16, 2020 5:56am
Closed EA

I'll see you guys Friday!
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33,864
  • Edited 7:13am Jan 16, 2020 6:11am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting Davit
{quote} When you do your calendar you should highlight big events like ECB and plan ahead course of action that is appropriate. A sell pairs that are relatively stronger then Euro (short EA EN EC) and avoid weak Yen.That should of been obvious. Work on your calendar I can sense people who do and people either dont or dont understand importance of it to do it.If you are trading my system you must do..its part of the core system. Having said above R100 has not breached yet and PA suggesting maybe topping out hence hold for now!If you survive situations...
Davit, sorry for this question, maybe it's stupid but you wrote: ". A sell pairs that are relatively stronger then Euro (short EA EN EC) and avoid weak Yen."
How do you judge that jpy is weak and AUD, NYD and CAD are stronger?

EDIT: Sorry for confusion, I think I found the answer in your posts before..... See you tomorrow
  • #33,865
  • Jan 16, 2020 6:26am Jan 16, 2020 6:26am
Quoting kleybenny
{quote} ". A sell pairs that are relatively stronger then Euro (short EA EN EC) and avoid weak Yen." How do you judge that jpy is weak and AUD, NYD and CAD are stronger?
Just look at the charts, or just have a quick look at a Guage, but ultimately you can see All information you need from a chart, once you get the screen time then you never need to wonder again!
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  • #33,866
  • Jan 16, 2020 6:38am Jan 16, 2020 6:38am
Quoting kleybenny
{quote} David, sorry for this question, maybe it's stupid but you wrote: ". A sell pairs that are relatively stronger then Euro (short EA EN EC) and avoid weak Yen." How do you judge that jpy is weak and AUD, NYD and CAD are stronger? EDIT: Sorry for confusion, I think I found the answer in your posts before..... See you tomorrow
it's Davit.
  • #33,867
  • Jan 16, 2020 7:07am Jan 16, 2020 7:07am
Quoting HRTrading
{quote} Just look at the charts, or just have a quick look at a Guage, but ultimately you can see All information you need from a chart, once you get the screen time then you never need to wonder again! {image}
Kleybenny,
As HRTrading stated you will obtain this from the Charts.
However, there are a host of CSI (Currency Strength Indicators) out there!
Almost without exception they use MA's or variations.
Here is one that may be of use as very simple guide! Check by viewing the Charts - always!
Screen time is vital. Never trust a CSI - it will cost you!
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File Type: ex4 ARJUN 10EMA Dashboard v1.00.ex4   10 KB | 449 downloads
  • #33,868
  • Jan 16, 2020 11:28am Jan 16, 2020 11:28am
Closed EC
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Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the Earth
  • #33,869
  • Jan 16, 2020 4:33pm Jan 16, 2020 4:33pm
I dont like chf but last day of the week we might see some correction. By the way I closed ej with a small profit (almost breakeven )fortunetly. I couldnt calculate the jpy’s weakness well.
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  • #33,870
  • Jan 16, 2020 5:06pm Jan 16, 2020 5:06pm
Every time price drops on AC now Oanda jacks up the spread! 20pips? Wow
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33,871
  • Jan 16, 2020 9:02pm Jan 16, 2020 9:02pm
CJ Crab on H4 from the other day that was pending is confirmed. Have a Gartley on a Daily. The price its currently sitting at between R61 and R78 which is also MR1 on Standard Pivots.
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Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #33,872
  • Edited 5:08pm Jan 17, 2020 12:56am | Edited 5:08pm
GU H1 Gartley for those trading the London session. Red Flag News 04:30 NYT. If data is negative perhaps the GU will stay below the WPP and head down further. UPDATE: I hope some of you caught this, unfortunately I missed it as I was sleeping. I have two automated robot programs I wrote on my trading platform. One is based on MA's the other is based on a Fibonacci indicator. I turned it on when I went to bed last night and the Fibonacci system was the one I selected it did not give a sell arrow down, so no trade was initiated. Retail sales was a miss on the GBP and although selling below the WPP is not and ideal entry based on this system where higher probabilities are realized at the 68 and 71 levels. The pattern and the pivots showed you where it could go, and it went right to Target 2 which was right around S38. If you look at your charts there was an 80 pip move on that candle when the Retail sales came out. Looking at the bigger picture on a Daily you can see we're still in the middle of a bigger move.
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Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #33,873
  • Jan 17, 2020 3:35am Jan 17, 2020 3:35am
Just a reminder guys you dont have to be all over the board to make money you can hit same pair over and over on bounces.
EA great example
below what I made on those swings
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33,874
  • Jan 17, 2020 3:39am Jan 17, 2020 3:39am
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  • #33,875
  • Jan 17, 2020 3:46am Jan 17, 2020 3:46am
Quoting Davit
Just a reminder guys you dont have to be all over the board to make money you can hit same pair over and over on bounces. EA great example below what I made on those swings {image} {image}
Damn straight Davit....hit EA on every spike this week
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  • #33,876
  • Jan 17, 2020 3:53am Jan 17, 2020 3:53am
Quoting Davit
Just a reminder guys you dont have to be all over the board to make money you can hit same pair over and over on bounces. EA great example below what I made on those swings {image} {image}
Absolutely.For this reason, this is the best thread of FF
Thank you Davit.
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  • #33,877
  • Jan 17, 2020 3:55am Jan 17, 2020 3:55am
Lets recap

PPE
ADR
Support and resistance levels in between pivots.Not all swings go up 61-100 they at times fall short due to fundamental weakness perfect example Euro crosses except EJ
Be willing to flip example now EC may provide opportunity as price gets closer to 45 round number previous strong support WP and even stronger 4475.

Trading to me is about combing all these factors and make sound decisions.Takes time why screen time is essential.After a while becomes far easier...

The reason I don't use currency meters (almost all MA based)because strength is relative where price is! PERIOD!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33,878
  • Jan 17, 2020 4:05am Jan 17, 2020 4:05am
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} Absolutely.For this reason, this is the best thread of FF Thank you Davit. {image}
Is your trade report correct? It's showing 23.13 lots traded but 1, 318 usd of profit.. Meaning only 5 pips was really captured for the whole move?
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  • #33,879
  • Jan 17, 2020 4:56am Jan 17, 2020 4:56am
I´m out of EURJPY now with minor loss. No Problem. Still 2,4% profit this week. Thank you Davit and all others in this wonderful threat for great advise.

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  • #33,880
  • Edited 2:51pm Jan 17, 2020 5:17am | Edited 2:51pm
Quoting HRTrading
{quote} Is your trade report correct? It's showing 23.13 lots traded but 1, 318 usd of profit.. Meaning only 5 pips was really captured for the whole move?
I dont know if is that report correct or not.
I just wanted to show that I have make money hitting same pair over and over on bounces as Davit said.
I decided to make money on more trades with less pips instead of less trade with more pips by taking much more bounces on many smaller swings.
Otherwise I couldn't trade 123 trades in this range because I dont have much margin..
so when the swing is down, I release margin for other pairs, when swing is up, I hit EA over and over on bounces.
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