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The real Basics - how to start and how avoid the traps

  • #141
  • Jan 15, 2020 9:34pm Jan 15, 2020 9:34pm
  •  dmj120
  • | Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Newbie with professional aspiration | 108 Posts
Quoting MichaelSch
Hope you wil got what i will say you here.
Yes, thank you for taking the time to respond.
School of hard knocks
dmj120 Return This Year: na
  • #142
  • Jan 15, 2020 9:39pm Jan 15, 2020 9:39pm
  •  dmj120
  • | Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Newbie with professional aspiration | 108 Posts
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Michaels response hit the nail on the head; just watch the chart without the pressure of making a decision (meaning don’t try to trade, just watch). Mark a place where price seemed to turn; see what happens when it gets back there: does it break, and by how much, and with what force, and what happens after that? Does it hold, and if so, how much did the line break before it held, and how quickly did it reverse? My first mentor said you need nothing more than the price and manually drawn lines; it took a long time to figure out, but he was...
Thanks. I will look through the thread and try. I am a 'data guy' ....i love numbers, correlation, causation, and root cause analysis. Perhaps that has hindered ny progression - trying to analyze what I don't fully grasp, instead of observing and absorbing.
School of hard knocks
dmj120 Return This Year: na
  • #143
  • Jan 16, 2020 2:41am Jan 16, 2020 2:41am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Michaels response hit the nail on the head; just watch the chart without the pressure of making a decision (meaning don’t try to trade, just watch). Mark a place where price seemed to turn; see what happens when it gets back there: does it break, and by how much, and with what force, and what happens after that? Does it hold, and if so, how much did the line break before it held, and how quickly did it reverse? My first mentor said you need nothing more than the price and manually drawn lines; it took a long time to figure out, but he was...
Thanks for this post. Later I will this place in the first post, as this is really great. Great help that have you take time to post here.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #144
  • Edited 8:29am Jan 16, 2020 8:18am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting dmj120
{quote} Thanks. I will look through the thread and try. I am a 'data guy' ....i love numbers, correlation, causation, and root cause analysis. Perhaps that has hindered ny progression - trying to analyze what I don't fully grasp, instead of observing and absorbing.
Well, I suspect there are all sorts of ways people make trading decisions including in depth statistical analysis. The bottom line is markets are an auction; price moves up until there are no more buyers (or there is more aggressive selling than buying) and moves down until there are no more sellers (or more aggressive buying than selling). RSI, Stochastics, MACD, all that has nothing to do with what is happening. They can perhaps be used to create a consistent set of entry and exit conditions, but as you are a 'data guy', wouldn't you rather try to "see" as best you can what is actually happening?

What is actually happening is price moves up to a certain price and either (a) there are no more buyers or (b) there are more aggressive sellers than buyers. This creates a swing point. What happens the next time you get back there? Will aggressive sellers defend their position (its an analogy, its more likely institutional orders that have a VWAP target for their fills), or will Sellers have now been exhausted (i.e. disappeared) and Buyers are back in control. As a 'data guy', you can define what constitutes a relevant swing point (i.e. depth of pullback from prior swing points, duration of existence before touched again), mark those points, and then gather statistics about what happens when price returns. Does it (a) bounce off and if so, what was the overriding trend at the time (left side of monitor is higher or lower or equal to right side) or (b) does it break and what happens next? How much of a break constitutes a "break" vs. a "failed break".

I don't believe this business is a black and white business, there is lots of gray area. Everything looks somewhat similar to something before, but never exactly the same.

Last thing I'll say is that I think there are only 3 types of entries: pullbacks, breakouts, and failed breakouts. To use them, you need to understand (a) what is breaking or failing to break and (b) what is the main trend that is currently "pulling back". If you can figure out (a), then you will know what (b) is. I'm not trying to be cryptic, and hope it doesn't come off as that, but its for everyone themselves to decide I think. I have posted in this thread about how I define "trend" and how I find the points that break to change that trend.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #145
  • Edited 8:57am Jan 16, 2020 8:40am | Edited 8:57am
Today i give you a new example and as always have fun.

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For the new ones, please do watching it as childs learn about the world. We have here great informations collect and this enough for building the own way in trading.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #146
  • Jan 20, 2020 9:05am Jan 20, 2020 9:05am
.. and another one. I will now wait for input, before i will post further. Have fun.

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Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #147
  • Jan 22, 2020 10:26am Jan 22, 2020 10:26am
I will post another example and hope we got some input again ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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More simple you will not get into trading! Be sure you need not much to enter the market. One desicion point is enough to make money!
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #149
  • Jan 22, 2020 9:14pm Jan 22, 2020 9:14pm
Quoting Bionics
Nightmare Hi Michael, First of all, thank you for your very constructive contribution in our blog, so I would like to answer you in detail here. I am very pleased that you have reduced your trading decisions in the Forex market to the price after you yourself have refrained from your charts here. {image} You once worked with these charts, what you probably today cannot understand yourself. So I was initially amazed that you posted such a statement on our blog. Incidentally, I have never worked with such forex charts, because my charts always only...
I read your thread regularly and I think this really much. I have in past also work on several projects with several hundred indicator combinations and it lead mostly in the drop of it. It is something that I give back to motivate new trader first look the naked chart and work out an entry model. So I create this thread for it.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #150
  • Jan 22, 2020 10:33pm Jan 22, 2020 10:33pm
Hello Michael,

i read this forum for some time and have seen some systems. I think your ideas are very good and should have more attention. But im a starter now for 1 Year and i think your thread is the exactly right to start.

pick ONE pair: I take EUR/USD low Spread and some good moves i think.
timeframe you are able to trade: I take 30M. In my job i have some time to watch chart but not always, i think this fits good.
zoom this chart complete out, so you can not see a single candle: i have posted a chart where i have zoomed out and for the next days or week i will only look whats happening. I will write this in my notebook

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It will take time before i think about thinks like this:
- Think about percentage growing in a day/week/month
- Risk for one trade, 1% or more/less
- Reward for one trade


I hope its okay to post in your thread, if not i will delete this post.
  • #151
  • Jan 23, 2020 2:42am Jan 23, 2020 2:42am
Quoting kirosa
Hello Michael, i read this forum for some time and have seen some systems. I think your ideas are very good and should have more attention. But im a starter now for 1 Year and i think your thread is the exactly right to start. pick ONE pair: I take EUR/USD low Spread and some good moves i think. timeframe you are able to trade: I take 30M. In my job i have some time to watch chart but not always, i think this fits good. zoom this chart complete out, so you can not see a single candle: i have posted a chart where i have zoomed out and for the next...
Nice you are here and give trading in a naked chart a chance. All is avaible here to build the own entry model, no need for massive use of indicators, no need for moving much around many thousands of hours. Be sure you reduce time if you work with great informations collect here.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #152
  • Jan 23, 2020 2:50am Jan 23, 2020 2:50am
Thanks for your answer i have to work but i think when i stop to check every new Thread. It will work out for me.

But i have one question. Do you think it makes sense to start with forex. Because of the new taxes in germany next year? or should i begin with crypto or something like this?
  • #153
  • Jan 23, 2020 8:02am Jan 23, 2020 8:02am
Quoting kirosa
Thanks for your answer i have to work but i think when i stop to check every new Thread. It will work out for me. But i have one question. Do you think it makes sense to start with forex. Because of the new taxes in germany next year? or should i begin with crypto or something like this?
Michael may say different, but I think at first, don't worry about profit and loss and any potential taxation; it will likely be awhile before that becomes an issue. When you do start actually trading, forex will allow you to risk the least possible amount on any trade. And what you will learn through this exercise will be applicable to any market so you can switch later if you want to.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #154
  • Jan 23, 2020 8:15am Jan 23, 2020 8:15am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Michael may say different, but I think at first, don't worry about profit and loss and any potential taxation; it will likely be awhile before that becomes an issue. When you do start actually trading, forex will allow you to risk the least possible amount on any trade. And what you will learn through this exercise will be applicable to any market so you can switch later if you want to.
I am the last days read about that issue about the trouble we have now here in germany. I have not yet a clue what it really means for me. I trade not fulltime and i am under the 10.000 Euro loss. Hope i can get clear about it in the next weeks. So i can give no advice, but as jmflukeii said, it is for you practice and think you will not trade that much money?
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #155
  • Jan 23, 2020 9:45am Jan 23, 2020 9:45am
Okay i understand, the Market is Not that important. The Lessons Working everywhere.

So i will try to read the Chart further. i have marked Levels today in the picture i have posted and tomorrow i will Draw again. I will See if Something Changes for me ober the Weekend

Only for calculation if your Account is 5000 Dollar (this is the size i will start with) and risking 3% you can loose 66 Trades then 10.000 is full.
  • #156
  • Jan 23, 2020 9:57am Jan 23, 2020 9:57am
Quoting kirosa
Okay i understand, the Market is Not that important. The Lessons Working everywhere. So i will try to read the Chart further. i have marked Levels today in the picture i have posted and tomorrow i will Draw again. I will See if Something Changes for me ober the Weekend Only for calculation if your Account is 5000 Dollar (this is the size i will start with) and risking 3% you can loose 66 Trades then 10.000 is full.
Yes, the situation highly emotional in german forums who talking about trading. This is like a missle for traders in germany. Hope it will be on law side cut as fast as possible. If not i must search also for a solution.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #157
  • Jan 23, 2020 10:10am Jan 23, 2020 10:10am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} Yes, the situation highly emotional in german forums who talking about trading. This is like a missle for traders in germany. Hope it will be on law side cut as fast as possible. If not i must search also for a solution.
Trade the US Index Micro Futures. In my opinion, much better movement than currencies, plus an inherent bias in the market's direction. Have to be willing to risk $0.50 per tick though.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #158
  • Jan 23, 2020 10:12am Jan 23, 2020 10:12am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Trade the US Index Micro Futures. In my opinion, much better movement than currencies, plus an inherent bias in the market's direction. Have to be willing to risk $0.50 per tick though.
Thanks for the tip. I will sure look for another option, because i do not like what our goverment is doing here.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #159
  • Jan 23, 2020 12:47pm Jan 23, 2020 12:47pm
I just can talk out of my personal view.

I would say, that if you look at a chart you should know why the chart looks like it looks.
So how can you achieve that?
You have to know a basic knowledge of how global economy works, central banks and their goals, correlations from FX, equities, commodities...
If you don't have the fundamentals it's very hard to "predict" the futures.

For me technicals are tools for strategy, trade entry, exit, Stop Loss, Take Profit.
Everyone likes other technicals.

I think it's important that you find something what suits you!
You cannot copy a "system" or "strategy" 1:1 from another person, because this person has different thoughts about the things.
Just find the technicals which suit you best, ask you following questions:
Why is the price where it is?
Are we in a down- or uptrend?
What happened at those spikes?
Is the price lower or higher in 24 hours from now? (no matter how far away)

Find the toolset which suits you best, but before that, get the fundamentals!

With your ongoing journey you will also need to transform yourself, because after you have automated your fundamental and technical skills, the only opponent is your brain and your emotions.

Good journey!
  • #160
  • Edited 4:10am Jan 24, 2020 4:00am | Edited 4:10am
Hello again guys

i watched the chart the last days. The first Picture is from day one where i marked some boxes i saw.

What i see are fast moves then it slowes. Goes sidways and then it breaks in one direction.

or in a trend it pauses makes a retrace and goes further. Yea thats what i saw the first day i hope its not complete bullshit.

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So now the second day.

I marked it now in an different way with a ruler and not in mt4 anymore. to not get distracted.

The lines are a bit to thick

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After checking i think i have marked almost the same stuff. Only in a different way.
But what i saw is that it maybe makes sense to watch if the price when it is in a pause. Makes lower highs but no lower lows for example to find the way it will break.

But i dont know yet and i would love to see feedback. I have much to work on this. Over the weekend i have more time and will check more charts.

Michael should i check the same chart more or take an other one? What would you say?
An other more stupid question. What is your opinion about trading videos? Should i watch for example the video that is posted in this thread?


Thank you!
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Mandariin