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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #741
  • Jan 10, 2020 11:33am Jan 10, 2020 11:33am
Quoting jupiter_peak
{quote} Took a short position today on Fiber based on a few things: 1. Igrok's template(s); 2. GBPUSD has almost met its ATR and EURUSD had not... Likely to follow GBPUSD. 3. Timing was key too: early EST time.
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Freedom is not free
  • #742
  • Jan 11, 2020 7:38am Jan 11, 2020 7:38am
Quoting anhsang38
{quote} Dear Igrok, Thank you so much... Good informations from you... Igrok , I didn't see the diamond patterns in this book, Beat the Odds in Forex Trading: How to Identify and Profit from High Percentage Market Patterns (https://www.amazon.com/Beat-Odds-Forex-Trading-Percentage/dp/0471933317/ref=sr_1_fkmr0_1?keywords=Beat+the+Odds+in+Forex+Trading%3A+How+to+Identify+and+Profit+from+High+Percentage+Market+Patterns%2C+by+Igor+Toshchakov+%28L.A.Igrok%29&qid=1578620997&s=books&sr=1-1-fkmr0)
the book was and is about "trading templates"... they mostly intended for short- and sometimes medium-term trading... diamonds are quite rare and are usually getting build on longer-term charts... they are not frequent enough to be included into the templates list...
  • #743
  • Jan 11, 2020 7:59am Jan 11, 2020 7:59am
Quoting Jordi
Let's see what happen. It would be nice if Dax follow this path. {image}
unlikely... in this case your projection looks like a single-diagonal continuation diamond
  • #744
  • Jan 11, 2020 8:28am Jan 11, 2020 8:28am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} the book was and is about "trading templates"... they mostly intended for short- and sometimes medium-term trading... diamonds are quite rare and are usually getting build on longer-term charts... they are not frequent enough to be included into the templates list...
Dear Igrok,
I want to know the diamond patterns of you, how can get the document about it....
Please let me know.

Rg
Sang
  • #745
  • Jan 11, 2020 8:55am Jan 11, 2020 8:55am
It seems to me that the U.S. economy will survive even World War III, because they always have something to compensate for all the shortcomings of politicians, economists, etc. And why the stock market will end, if in the last quarter all companies, well, not all companies, but most of them reported positively, many companies are launching interesting projects that attract the public and investors from other countries. Obviously, political debates and other issues are not always positive and may hinder some processes, but overall, I think the U.S. still has a great future that will prove that this country cannot be underestimated.
  • #746
  • Jan 11, 2020 5:29pm Jan 11, 2020 5:29pm
Quoting anhsang38
{quote} Dear Igrok, I want to know the diamond patterns of you, how can get the document about it.... Please let me know. Rg Sang
nowhere, I guess... I published an article about it in November, 2018 issue of the "Stocks & Commodities" magazine and this is pretty much it...
  • #747
  • Jan 11, 2020 9:21pm Jan 11, 2020 9:21pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} nowhere, I guess... I published an article about it in November, 2018 issue of the "Stocks & Commodities" magazine and this is pretty much it...
Dear Igrok,
Could y share the link of magazine.
  • #748
  • Jan 12, 2020 9:40am Jan 12, 2020 9:40am
Quoting anhsang38
{quote} Dear Igrok, Could y share the link of magazine.
apparently it's commercial... I'm not sure it's allowed in here... though I personally don't get any royalty for that... https://store.traders.com/stcov3628336.html
  • #749
  • Jan 12, 2020 8:50pm Jan 12, 2020 8:50pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} apparently it's commercial... I'm not sure it's allowed in here... though I personally don't get any royalty for that... https://store.traders.com/stcov3628336.html
Thank you so much.
  • #750
  • Jan 13, 2020 1:26pm Jan 13, 2020 1:26pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} the book was and is about "trading templates"... they mostly intended for short- and sometimes medium-term trading... diamonds are quite rare and are usually getting build on longer-term charts... they are not frequent enough to be included into the templates list...
HI Igor, Your book makes reference (with pictures) 19.11 - 19.12 re: Diamonds (which I had to go back and reread pgs 180- 183) there is a lot of gems in there (pardon the pun but I had to get that in) . You discuss and show trading inside the diamond and on breaks of the diamond. My favourite part is this quote "The first half of it could be a real disaster for a trader, because it represents a broadening triangle that is very difficult to identify before it is fully formed and very difficult to trade on." Amen to that!
  • #751
  • Jan 14, 2020 8:08am Jan 14, 2020 8:08am
Reuters reports bigger deal than expected for US-China for Phase 1. Apparently it is a big ass deal! If true markets will soar???
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/china-to-ramp-up-u-s-car-aircraft-energy-purchases-in-trade-deal-source-idUKKBN1ZD0FN
  • #752
  • Jan 16, 2020 3:03pm Jan 16, 2020 3:03pm
Thanks for the sell stops!!!

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Freedom is not free
  • #753
  • Jan 17, 2020 4:40am Jan 17, 2020 4:40am
Quoting Abe16
Thanks for the sell stops!!! {image}
we know what happened 4 hours later the last time you posted a screenshot like this
  • #754
  • Jan 17, 2020 9:38am Jan 17, 2020 9:38am
Quoting Abe16
Thanks for the sell stops!!! {image}
4 hours later... still good. I just didn't want you to jinx my longs
But getting ready to short any day... but i don't see any fundamentals or reasons for shorts yet...
  • #755
  • Jan 17, 2020 2:12pm Jan 17, 2020 2:12pm
Well, I'm a lot better at predicting individual stocks than indexes, but there is nothing on the weekly or monthly charts that indicate the SPX is extremely overbought just yet. However, the daily chart of the SPY does show a decent negative trade, but really only as a PUT option...probably not for just a short trade. Most likely won't see it drop much below 330 by Wednesday.

I got in SPY Jan 22 331 PUT @ $0.68 a few minutes ago, but about $0.80 or better before the close should make some money. But like I said, a straight short trade probably won't have enough of a price change to make anything...
  • #756
  • Jan 21, 2020 9:43am Jan 21, 2020 9:43am
Quoting moneymaker2
Well, I'm a lot better at predicting individual stocks than indexes, but there is nothing on the weekly or monthly charts that indicate the SPX is extremely overbought just yet. However, the daily chart of the SPY does show a decent negative trade, but really only as a PUT option...probably not for just a short trade. Most likely won't see it drop much below 330 by Wednesday. I got in SPY Jan 22 331 PUT @ $0.68 a few minutes ago, but about $0.80 or better before the close should make some money. But like I said, a straight short trade probably won't...
Out of the following:

SPY Jan22 331 PUT @ $0.78 up from $0.68

A decent trade for options, but would probably lose money on the straight short.
  • #757
  • Jan 23, 2020 2:06am Jan 23, 2020 2:06am
How long before the Feds cut the interest rates?
ECB has already cut the interest rates, BOE has strongly indicated they will be doing it, BOC has done it or will be doing it? everyone in the world are printing money and keeping the rates low or nothing...

There is no downside to the markets at the moment... DOW 30K, NQ 10K and SP500 4K is on the cards?
The markets will take a tumble after that? What are your views?
  • #758
  • Jan 23, 2020 10:25am Jan 23, 2020 10:25am
I think the highs of this week are important. Maybe we have just seen the top of this long market, at least a multi week top. Also consider this week is an ECM turning point (M. Armstrong model). I'm opening short positions on NDX.
  • #759
  • Jan 24, 2020 10:55am Jan 24, 2020 10:55am
Quoting Jordi
I think the highs of this week are important. Maybe we have just seen the top of this long market, at least a multi week top. Also consider this week is an ECM turning point (M. Armstrong model). I'm opening short positions on NDX.
i agree.
QQQ
Im short
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  • #760
  • Jan 24, 2020 12:53pm Jan 24, 2020 12:53pm
One thing to consider in a good shorting situation would be the purchase of straight PUT options rather than shorting the stock itself. Years and years (and years and years) ago I used to short stocks, and was limited on how many shares I could short based on my balance. Then I began trading options and using PUTs to basically do the same thing with much less money up front and have never looked back!

Example using the QQQ as it is right now and assume that the price is going to drop from $223 to around $218 in the next week or so.

Options: purchase of 10 contracts of the QQQ with the strike price of 223.5 and an expiration date of Feb7 would be roughly $3000. This allows you to "control" 1000 shares of the QQQ. If price drops from $223 to $218 by next Friday, you sell your PUTs and you have made roughly $4000+ profit off a $3000 investment for roughly 133+ % return

Shorting: in order to control 1000 shares, you would have to put up roughly $223,000. If the price drops from $223 to $218 by next Friday, you would close the trade and make roughly $5000 profit off close to a quarter million dollar investment for roughly a 2.2% return.

Trading is all about making money and option PUTs/CALLs are just another tool to help do that, so something to consider.

Just my $0.02.....
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