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Intraday Trading the US Index Futures

  • #221
  • Jan 3, 2020 2:30pm Jan 3, 2020 2:30pm
Quoting HiddenGap
"All traders won't be back until Monday." Steve Grasso, CNBC Fast Money. Accordingly, only SIM trades today (and all week). 3 Trades*: 3 Wins. * For shits and giggles, I took a trade in the ES last night during my non-trading hours. It was a winner and is also reflected in the trade box P&L. Trade 1: {image} Trade 2: {image} Trade 3: {image}
I love the VSA charts you put up. I spent so much time learning it and like seeing them again.

As for traders not being around, activity has been fantastic (maybe because it is thin?).
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #222
  • Jan 3, 2020 2:59pm Jan 3, 2020 2:59pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
I love the VSA charts you put up.
Thank you. As hard as I try, I can't seem to get away from volume, and more specifically, away from Volume Spread Analysis (VSA).

Quoting jmflukeiii
As for traders not being around, activity has been fantastic (maybe because it is thin?).
Yea, in truth, the thinness only matters to those who trade with size. And as VSA would say, "Some fraction of the Smart Money is always on the job."
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #223
  • Jan 4, 2020 3:00am Jan 4, 2020 3:00am
Morning guys

HiddenGap, love your VSA charts and explanations.

I've been trading VSA for years now and I find that the Nasdaq futures work wonderfully on the 1 min chart with VSA

If you are interested, I will post some examples for you to look over?

Cheers

Andrew
  • #224
  • Jan 4, 2020 11:19pm Jan 4, 2020 11:19pm
Quoting BigInTheCity
Morning guys HiddenGap, love your VSA charts and explanations. I've been trading VSA for years now and I find that the Nasdaq futures work wonderfully on the 1 min chart with VSA If you are interested, I will post some examples for you to look over? Cheers Andrew
Yes, the more the merrier!
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #225
  • Jan 6, 2020 8:07am Jan 6, 2020 8:07am
Good afternoon guys

Just waiting for the cash markets to open in 20 mins, i'm looking to sell rallies on ES and NQ.

I will post my ideas, entries as soon as I see anything i'm interested in

Good luck for the session
  • #226
  • Jan 6, 2020 9:00am Jan 6, 2020 9:00am
Short NQ at 9798.25

Broke this mornings high on very little volume, which to me means no interest from the smart money. Potential warning sign for a false break.

Also ES failed to take this mornings high, so potential divergence.
  • #227
  • Jan 6, 2020 9:26am Jan 6, 2020 9:26am
Been long ES all morning and exited just now at the overnight high for +8.00. Entry was a failed breakout of yesterday low / potential trend from first bar (fbo-yl / t1b).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 03-20 5 Minute 2020_01_06 7_25_20 AM.png Size: 105 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #228
  • Jan 6, 2020 9:30am Jan 6, 2020 9:30am
Nice long, it amazes me how strong these markets are despite the negative news. Just like Friday, once the cash markets opened, buying like crazy.

Possible ES wants to close the opening gap like NQ before any chance of heading lower (that's if it wants to even head lower)
  • #229
  • Jan 6, 2020 9:33am Jan 6, 2020 9:33am
Quoting BigInTheCity
Good afternoon guys Just waiting for the cash markets to open in 20 mins, i'm looking to sell rallies on ES and NQ. I will post my ideas, entries as soon as I see anything i'm interested in Good luck for the session
Thanks for participating. Hasn't been much activity here so wasn't checking the thread, but will try to get intra-trade posts going again.

I held the ES long due to the charts below. I saw these huge outside reversal 60M candles forming on both markets. Could be a trap, but figured it would at least allow for the morning direction to be up.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MNQ 03-20 60 Minute 2020_01_06 7_31_46 AM.png Size: 105 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 03-20 60 Minute 2020_01_06 7_31_42 AM.png Size: 66 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #230
  • Edited 1:32pm Jan 6, 2020 9:50am | Edited 1:32pm
Quoting BigInTheCity
Nice long, it amazes me how strong these markets are despite the negative news. Just like Friday, once the cash markets opened, buying like crazy. Possible ES wants to close the opening gap like NQ before any chance of heading lower (that's if it wants to even head lower)
I agree, but if you think about the big picture, its such a strong bull trend. I don't think it will just turn all of a sudden. Turn enough for intraday shorts, yes, but the full blow downtrend will take awhile, I think.

The Monthly Chart is in a buy climax and has been for awhile. Typically buy climaxes don't just reverse, they stall and go sideways for "a few bars". In the case of the monthly chart, a few bars = a few months.

The yearly chart put it in its biggest bar also in the last 10 years. Biggest bar at the end of the trend is usually a buy climax and, per the above, a buy climax typically goes sideways for a few bars. In the case of the yearly chart, a few bars = a few years.

The daily is forming a small expanding triangle here (trading range action), but can break either direction. It is still within its channel.

The weekly is flat now having put in an outside reversal bar last week. But that bar was a doji which is a trading range and a poor sell signal.

Of course, that doesn't matter all that much for intraday positions other than: a) we are still in an uptrend and b) this uptrend will evolve into a trading range before a downtrend.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ES 03-20 Daily 2020_01_06 7_51_45 AM.png Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ES 03-20 Weekly 2020_02 7_52_49 AM.png Size: 82 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #231
  • Jan 7, 2020 3:50am Jan 7, 2020 3:50am
Morning JM

Thank you for your analysis and thoughts. What's funny is, until all this Iran news, my strategy is to always play the markets from the long side as the natural bias to the stockmarket is up. Plus when it comes down, it comes down so fast that i just sit on my hands and wait for climatic action and the sign buyers have started to accumulate. Since the Iran news came out, it was the first time i started looking for shorts and resulted in my getting stopped out. That will teach me for not sticking to my strategy :-)

Took a nice trade in NQ this morning at the London open, as detailed below on the 1 minute chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ.png Size: 62 KB
  • #232
  • Jan 7, 2020 3:55am Jan 7, 2020 3:55am
HiddenGap

Sorry to be cheeky, as I like to trade VSA from the 1 minute chart, I'm considering incorporating the footprint charts into my analysis.

Is there any chance you could do a screen print of the 1 min footprint chart in NQ for the same period as i took my trade above please. I want to see if there were any obvious imbalances.

Really grateful if you would do that for me.

Cheers

Andrew
  • #233
  • Jan 7, 2020 8:17am Jan 7, 2020 8:17am
Quoting BigInTheCity
HiddenGap Sorry to be cheeky, as I like to trade VSA from the 1 minute chart, I'm considering incorporating the footprint charts into my analysis. Is there any chance you could do a screen print of the 1 min footprint chart in NQ for the same period as i took my trade above please. I want to see if there were any obvious imbalances. Really grateful if you would do that for me. Cheers Andrew
Its hard to fit that whole trade sequence on one chart with the 1 minute, so below are charts from:
1) the low prior to your entry,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ 03-20 1 Min Volumetric 2020_01_06 6_15_21 AM.png Size: 214 KB

2) the time around your entry,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ 03-20 1 Min Volumetric 2020_01_07 6_15_44 AM.png Size: 228 KB

and 3) time around your exit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ 03-20 1 Min Volumetric 2020_01_07 6_16_01 AM.png Size: 198 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #234
  • Jan 7, 2020 8:35am Jan 7, 2020 8:35am
Taken a long here, targeting the buy-stops above the equal highs at 8,883

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ.png Size: 45 KB
  • #235
  • Jan 7, 2020 8:36am Jan 7, 2020 8:36am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Its hard to fit that whole trade sequence on one chart with the 1 minute, so below are charts from: 1) the low prior to your entry, {image} 2) the time around your entry, {image} and 3) time around your exit. {image}
You are too kind, thank you mate. I will study them now
  • #236
  • Jan 7, 2020 8:43am Jan 7, 2020 8:43am
I'm done I think. 3 trades in 9 minutes on NQ: -20, +11, +108
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MNQ 03-20 233 Tick 2020_01_07 6_40_24 AM.png Size: 84 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #237
  • Jan 7, 2020 9:04am Jan 7, 2020 9:04am
Quoting jmflukeiii
I'm done I think. 3 trades in 9 minutes on NQ: -20, +11, +108 {image}
Great work, do you trade full-time?
  • #238
  • Jan 7, 2020 9:07am Jan 7, 2020 9:07am
Quoting BigInTheCity
{quote} Great work, do you trade full-time?
No, full time I invest in real estate. Part time I trade. Since I'm on the west coast of the US, I can trade the best of the US market without interfering much with the rest of the day. 1.5 - 2.5 hours after market open, from 6:30 - 8:00 or 9:00. (9:30 EST / market open to 11:00 or 12:00 EST).
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #239
  • Jan 7, 2020 9:15am Jan 7, 2020 9:15am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} No, full time I invest in real estate. Part time I trade. Since I'm on the west coast of the US, I can trade the best of the US market without interfering much with the rest of the day. 1.5 - 2.5 hours after market open, from 6:30 - 8:00 or 9:00. (9:30 EST / market open to 11:00 or 12:00 EST).
Perfect. I'm based in the UK and trade alongside my job too, so best of both worlds for me too

Thanks again for the footprint charts.

Looks like NQ might reach for the buy-side stops I mentioned and my take profit. I trade 1:1 risk reward so just missed my stop at 8833 (so close!!)
  • #240
  • Jan 7, 2020 9:22am Jan 7, 2020 9:22am
Quoting BigInTheCity
{quote} Perfect. I'm based in the UK and trade alongside my job too, so best of both worlds for me too Thanks again for the footprint charts. Looks like NQ might reach for the buy-side stops I mentioned and my take profit. I trade 1:1 risk reward so just missed my stop at 8833 (so close!!)
I've tested various management methods for me and found the best for my approach is to simply trail swing points until I get stopped. Does two things:

1) keeps a trade producing profit until it indicates it no longer can as breaking the swing point indicates a trade may setup in the opposite direction and
2) keeps me from having to re-enter thus assuming additional risk.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
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