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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #701
  • Jan 3, 2020 4:34am Jan 3, 2020 4:34am
Quoting Neogenesis
Actually, one final post before I leave.


Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Hmm no way of telling whether it will be huge or not yet. Currently the S&P is only 1.16% down Could drop further. I would have expected a more rapid and bigger decline for a significant correction. There were so many backlashes over the events of last year that banks/MM have put a lot of effort into ensuring the same doesn’t happen again.
  • #702
  • Edited 6:25am Jan 3, 2020 5:56am | Edited 6:25am
S&P has just changed the MMM and MMY... can be shorted on Monday with stops above current month's top... better to get a short position as close to the high as possible to minimize the risk... though the stops are quite reliable in any case... the initial target is 2500 "phantom" level, where it can be bought again...
  • #703
  • Jan 3, 2020 7:56am Jan 3, 2020 7:56am
When you see that S&P is 94% away from its monthly 200sma & 670 (more or less as its keep moving) points from its weekly 200sma

You can tell the market is clearly overextended....well lets wait i guess
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #704
  • Jan 3, 2020 8:04am Jan 3, 2020 8:04am
Quoting Igrok
S&P has just changed the MMM and MMY... can be shorted on Monday with stops above current month's top... better to get a short position as close to the high as possible to minimize the risk... though the stops are quite reliable in any case... the initial target is 2500 "phantom" level, where it can be bought again...
Igrok, can you explain how you calculate the 2500 target?
  • #705
  • Jan 3, 2020 9:53am Jan 3, 2020 9:53am
Quoting Igrok
S&P has just changed the MMM and MMY... can be shorted on Monday with stops above current month's top... better to get a short position as close to the high as possible to minimize the risk... though the stops are quite reliable in any case... the initial target is 2500 "phantom" level, where it can be bought again...
DJI also has changed MMW/MMM/MMY...
  • #706
  • Jan 4, 2020 5:02am Jan 4, 2020 5:02am
Quoting kuroro001
When you see that S&P is 94% away from its monthly 200sma & 670 (more or less as its keep moving) points from its weekly 200sma You can tell the market is clearly overextended....well lets wait i guess
interested in how you calculate the 94% figure?
  • #707
  • Jan 4, 2020 7:24am Jan 4, 2020 7:24am
Quoting Jordi
{quote} Igrok, can you explain how you calculate the 2500 target?

that's the initial projection for the next leg down in the potential single-diagonal diamond...
  • #708
  • Jan 4, 2020 7:24am Jan 4, 2020 7:24am
Quoting jupiter_peak
{quote} DJI also has changed MMW/MMM/MMY...
MMW doesn't matter as it was the last day of the week... the rest is quite quite important...
  • #709
  • Jan 4, 2020 9:45am Jan 4, 2020 9:45am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} that's the initial projection for the next leg down in the potential single-diagonal diamond...
Can you post a chart, please?
  • #710
  • Jan 4, 2020 10:48am Jan 4, 2020 10:48am
Quoting Sc11
{quote} interested in how you calculate the 94% figure?
monthly 200sma = 1669
Price = 3235

3235/1669 -1= 0,94

Price is 94% its 200sma.

But Bitcoin was wayyyyy more. And palladium is like 300%.

I'm not saying it'll go down, but it could correct anytime soon based on this overextension.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #711
  • Jan 4, 2020 12:05pm Jan 4, 2020 12:05pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} monthly 200sma = 1669 Price = 3235 3235/1669 -1= 0,94 Price is 94% its 200sma. But Bitcoin was wayyyyy more. And palladium is like 300%. I'm not saying it'll go down, but it could correct anytime soon based on this overextension.
Quickly working this out roughly for the 2007 crash = 64% and 2000 crash =165%. Do you use this to trade with, what experience do you have - have you an indicator that works out the percentage automatically?
  • #712
  • Jan 4, 2020 1:21pm Jan 4, 2020 1:21pm
Quoting Sc11
{quote} Quickly working this out roughly for the 2007 crash = 64% and 2000 crash =165%. Do you use this to trade with, what experience do you have - have you an indicator that works out the percentage automatically?
And if we go deeper in time, sometimes could be 200%. But situation was different i guess, price was only 100 by then, or less

And for both questions, answer is no. I rarely use statistical datas like that, but it worth watching it for a potential correction (it may never come though)

Some people are saying, we'll never ever see below 3100 ever again, true or not ? we'll see
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #713
  • Jan 5, 2020 1:15am Jan 5, 2020 1:15am
Quoting Igrok
S&P has just changed the MMM and MMY... can be shorted on Monday with stops above current month's top... better to get a short position as close to the high as possible to minimize the risk... though the stops are quite reliable in any case... the initial target is 2500 "phantom" level, where it can be bought again...
Hi @Igor, I hope the holiday season was good to you. Do you believe that the Highest value on the S&P for January is already reached or are you unsure and believe that the High for January will be the Zenith for the s&P for the next few months ?
  • #714
  • Jan 5, 2020 3:57am Jan 5, 2020 3:57am
Quoting Edd111111
Do you believe that the Highest value on the S&P for January is already reached or are you unsure and believe that the High for January will be the Zenith for the s&P for the next few months ?
it doesn't make sense to make such predictions because it doesn't really matter... we have to follow the market and not to argue with it... as it now seems, technically there is still some potential on the upside but at this very point the top was formed pretty close to the ideal projected one.... besides there was already a signal received to short the market just because both MMM and MMY are pointing down already... therefore shorts are definitely preferable now... for as long as the most current tops stay intact, each and every trade has to start with opening a short position till a longer-term projected target gets reached...
  • #715
  • Jan 5, 2020 4:01am Jan 5, 2020 4:01am
Quoting Jordi
{quote} Can you post a chart, please?
I already posted those charts for the Dow... nothing has changed since then... same thing is valid for S&P...
  • #716
  • Jan 5, 2020 5:16am Jan 5, 2020 5:16am
I fully agree with your statement @Igrok. Let the market guide you. My results improved since I started trading reactive, not predictive.
  • #717
  • Jan 5, 2020 3:03pm Jan 5, 2020 3:03pm
Quoting bystoyan
I fully agree with your statement @Igrok. Let the market guide you. My results improved since I started trading reactive, not predictive.
back in 1998 I have developed my own method by creating about 30 trading templates which I actually use since then... those are standard trading strategies for standard market situations... works fine so far...
  • #718
  • Jan 6, 2020 3:28am Jan 6, 2020 3:28am
Time for a decent correction in DOW so short or time to buy more?
  • #719
  • Jan 6, 2020 3:35am Jan 6, 2020 3:35am
Quoting Forex.RayV1
Time for a decent correction in DOW so short or time to buy more?
That depends on political developments US - Iran.
Next Wednesday is due the "Phase 1" sign off, which I don't see guaranteed as they are trumping.
  • #720
  • Jan 6, 2020 3:43am Jan 6, 2020 3:43am
Quoting bystoyan
{quote} That depends on political developments US - Iran. Next Wednesday is due the "Phase 1" sign off, which I don't see guaranteed as they are trumping.
Phase 1 sign off is a confirmed thing isn't it?
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