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To be successful... cut out the noise

  • #121
  • Dec 31, 2019 2:08pm Dec 31, 2019 2:08pm
Quoting Guiyee89
I can't talk much about EAs because I haven't tried any, but so far in my years of trading I have never had the same results when forward trading than "backtesting"... I think because of 2 reasons: - Probably hard to manage emotions while trading - Probably hard to do a proper backtesting because you just take statistics from a specific pattern while not taking in consideration the general movement of the pair, which in Live trading means that it won't give the same results as backtested. Now, this is my experience and my conclusion on backtesting....
Good points here

One of the main advantages of an EA is that it kind of takes out the emotions that a human will come across. But just imagine, you did so much back testing, so many adjustments, made everything almost perfect. From you countless hours of back testing you know you'll get about 8% drawdown max.

Then you go about putting it on a live account with £10k in. You see a drawdown greater then 8%..you start to think damm what's going on here, You then get a drawdown touching 16%, 20% or even 25%

What do you do?? It's probably a good time most of went & changed our underpants..

No back testing prepares you for that situation...
J12
  • #122
  • Dec 31, 2019 2:10pm Dec 31, 2019 2:10pm
Quoting tradista
{quote} I would recommend using INS and OOS periods, walk-forward testing, parameter robustness testing along with Monte Carlo simulation prior to considering an algo viable.
Hey great recommendations, have you used them on a EA? If so please share your results...via of course a trade explorer on a live account

J
J12
  • #123
  • Dec 31, 2019 2:34pm Dec 31, 2019 2:34pm
Quoting jtbujak
Quoting j12
{quote} If you look at the chart below, I exited at 0.98963, got 80 pips or 1.2% I could have been in this trade, continued would have doubled to almost 3% or 4% 200+ pips. Does this mean my exit strategy is wrong? Is my risk reward is wrong? Well firstly for me no, because another pair has given me 4% more. Yes I would have liked to take it all. But I'm not perfect, I can't predict the future. Neither can anyone else. Secondly I don't really pay much attention to RRR. The pair by the way is USD CHF I entered roughly at the top
...

Hi friend thank you for the constructive post & reading the thread, you make some great points.

Breaking the points down

  1. Regarding the trade example quoted in this post, you had a profitable trade. That's the goal. You do not want a perfect trade. You want a profitable trade - What for one is a profitable trade? One can take 2 pips & have a profitable trade. I always think it is about how much % I can gain. I can probably gain 5 pips on each & every trade I take from the off set. But due to the way I trade this is enough for me. So I see it as I need 2% or 3% etc per trade to make it worth while.
  2. There is a "Holy Grail" and the Grail is the person trading the market. Two people can trade the same system and get different results. People who are not successful tend to second guess their decisions or their system because of fear or greed. Find a system that works for you and trade it - I can not agree with you more, you are 100% correct
  3. People will tell you that your trading is "wrong" or that you can't accomplish your trading goals. Don't listen to them. Take care of your own house, trade your system your way, set and achieve your own goals. The rest is of no importance. - I can not agree with you more, you are correct, you are responsible for what you do. No one else. It's natural people will start putting their 2p worth into absolutely everything. Even if you are making gains year on year, and they are making negatives, you're still incorrect, they are correct.
  4. When it comes to trading, don't believe people, believe data. If someone tells you something but can't back it up with data, they are probably full of it. - Again I can not agree with you more, you are 100% correct. I have made a point throughout this thread, right from the off set. If you are trying to teach someone a system, or preaching, then please prove what you are saying. And the person following please ask the question instead of just following blind & putting your hard earned money on the line. Just ask yourself the question, 200+ pages of a system, yet not a single person can prove this on a live account, yet people continue to follow etc. Just because someone has a red flag doesn't make them an amazing trader. I was amazed the other day whilst I was sitting at the airport, people were congratulating a person for starting a thread. It's a post anyone can add one, nothing to congratulate. To verify a account take about 5 min max, without revealing anything about money.

Regards

J

J12
  • #124
  • Dec 31, 2019 9:37pm Dec 31, 2019 9:37pm
Let me rephrase what you have already said:

  1. Don't overcomplicate things with too many indicators and too much noise.
  2. Don't pay attention to a lot of things including draw dawn.
  3. Have realistic goals.
  4. Be patient.
  5. I am a consistent good trader.
  6. Don't fall for people claiming things without proving them (i.e. trade explorers)

I agree with all the above statements. Actually it takes ages for average traders to come to those conclusions themselves.

BUT...

To be honest I still can't understand what the point of this thread is. If you're really want to improve people's attitude and overall help them become better traders you're not. Please don't get me wrong, I'm not here to nag about things and ruin the thread. But imagine an average trader like me:

  1. Don't listen to noises: ok, I won't...
  2. Be patient: ok, I will...
  3. Be realistic: ok, I will...
  4. etc ...

NOW WHAT? Do fundamental news are considered noises? Do you use economic calendar in your method? Do you use hard SL? Do you "average in/out"?

and a lot of other questions.

Please help us understand: what is the point of this thread?

  • #125
  • Dec 31, 2019 10:53pm Dec 31, 2019 10:53pm
Quoting j12
{quote} You believe in statistics & science, so have many in the past, and many continue to. The only thing is this probably 10% statistics 90% mental. If it was just stats & science we probably wouldn't be even having this conversation. But it seems as though you have found something that works for you with the 15EAs on MetaTrader5. Hopefully it works out. J
Couldn't be more wrong. Its 90 percent statistic and 10% mental. Psychology only helps in sizing up your bets and being braver.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #126
  • Jan 1, 2020 2:14am Jan 1, 2020 2:14am
Quoting j12
{quote}{quote} Hi friend thank you for the constructive post & reading the thread, you make some great points. Breaking the points down Regarding the trade example quoted in this post, you had a profitable trade. That's the goal. You do not want a perfect trade. You want a profitable trade - What for one is a profitable trade? One can take 2 pips & have a profitable trade. I always think it is about how much % I can gain. I can probably gain 5 pips on each & every trade I take from the off set. But due to the way I trade this is enough for me. So...
yes, the red flag doesn't mean you're a good trader.
the red flag usually only means that you are a very good representative of your own marketing
  • #127
  • Jan 1, 2020 2:43am Jan 1, 2020 2:43am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Couldn't be more wrong. Its 90 percent statistic and 10% mental. Psychology only helps in sizing up your bets and being braver.
Okkkkkkayyyyyyyy whatever works for you...
J12
  • #128
  • Jan 1, 2020 3:46am Jan 1, 2020 3:46am
Quoting YYZ
{quote} Quantitative analysis (finance) Jim Simons (mathematician)
Great links! I see now what I'm trying to accomplish and how it is named in science.

It seems here can be found answer regarding diversification - how many EAs to include in a package... For example this quote:

"Markowitz formalized a notion of mean return and covariances for common stocks which allowed him to quantify the concept of "diversification" in a market. He showed how to compute the mean return and variance for a given portfolio and argued that investors should hold only those portfolios whose variance is minimal among all portfolios with a given mean return."

Very inspiring about Jim Simons! A lot of links and books and new definitions/concepts to learn. Thank you.

It's ok that my MT4 ported examples of EAs are now in drawdowns (actually not very deep so far). As already mentioned in previous posts I'm experimenting with various EAs packages. It's double work to develop in MT5 and then port to MT4 (and risk of making mistakes while porting). It seems won't do it in the future because now Darwinex supports MT5 too and provide great analysis info for published strategies. Hope Forex Factory will append MT5 option for trade explorers because will have good examples in near future

But all this thread is great. Thank you j12 for moderating and pushing on "show results".
  • #129
  • Jan 1, 2020 5:36am Jan 1, 2020 5:36am
Quoting j12
{quote} Hey great recommendations, have you used them on a EA? If so please share your results...via of course a trade explorer on a live account J
I work for an investment firm, algo dev is my day to day job, but bound by NDAs so no proof available for you.
My own journey was hard so I'm just trying to give some tips to fellow algo developers, it is possible, you just need to have the right process, focus on the right metrics and work your probabilities. Anyway, feel free to keep questioning and thinking everybody has an agenda here...
Cheers and Happy 2020 to everyone!
Congrats Joyny I think you're on the right track.
  • #130
  • Jan 1, 2020 6:03am Jan 1, 2020 6:03am
Most people don't understand what forex trading is really about and that's why they want to follow others people opinion or to add a lot of charts. I also didn't understand why people do this until I didn't realised that people are simply unconfident in their own skills and knowledge. That's why a lot of traders think that technical analysis is some kind of panacea, the magicstick that will help them earn, or at least not lose money. I don't want to say that technical analyis is bad or doesn't work. Of course it works. But technical analysis is just the part of trading and a part of analysis. That's even not the most important part. The most important is traders ability to analyze the market, but traders are unsure of their skills and try to compensate everything with a lot of charts and graphs.
  • #131
  • Jan 1, 2020 6:47am Jan 1, 2020 6:47am
Quoting 7Shun
Most people don't understand what forex trading is really about and that's why they want to follow others people opinion or to add a lot of charts. I also didn't understand why people do this until I didn't realised that people are simply unconfident in their own skills and knowledge. That's why a lot of traders think that technical analysis is some kind of panacea, the magicstick that will help them earn, or at least not lose money. I don't want to say that technical analyis is bad or doesn't work. Of course it works. But technical analysis is...
Absolutely...
J12
  • #132
  • Jan 1, 2020 6:48am Jan 1, 2020 6:48am
Quoting j12
{quote} Hey great recommendations, have you used them on a EA? If so please share your results...via of course a trade explorer on a live account J
is it true that forex market are largely trade by robot?
  • #133
  • Jan 1, 2020 11:42am Jan 1, 2020 11:42am
Quoting finally-2020
Let me rephrase what you have already said: Don't overcomplicate things with too many indicators and too much noise. Don't pay attention to a lot of things including draw dawn. Have realistic goals. Be patient. I am a consistent good trader. Don't fall for people claiming things without proving them (i.e. trade explorers) I agree with all the above statements. Actually it takes ages for average traders to come to those conclusions themselves. BUT... To be honest I still can't understand what the point of this thread is. If you're really want to...
  • #134
  • Jan 1, 2020 1:16pm Jan 1, 2020 1:16pm
Quoting finally-2020
Let me rephrase what you have already said: Don't overcomplicate things with too many indicators and too much noise. Don't pay attention to a lot of things including draw dawn. Have realistic goals. Be patient. I am a consistent good trader. Don't fall for people claiming things without proving them (i.e. trade explorers) I agree with all the above statements. Actually it takes ages for average traders to come to those conclusions themselves. BUT... To be honest I still can't understand what the point of this thread is. If you're really want to...

If you see no point & get nothing out of it then please don't read it. And if you read from the start I've said clearly. Also this is in the trading discussion section of the forum.

It's not to tell you or dictate to you what to do. Where to set your SL, TP, use calendars etc.

If you want a system then please go to the systems part of the forum. Also you're a new member please read the different sections of the forum.

J
J12
  • #135
  • Jan 2, 2020 5:02am Jan 2, 2020 5:02am
Noice is the the thing is too hard to overcome and its everywhere when you trade, in your graphs, in your mind and even in actions. The most strange thing is that traders even don't see noice as noice before someone won't show them what the noise really is. In fact, traders create noise as they want to be seen as professionals and a lot of graphs, open windows and other stuff associate with some kind of professionalism. Be sure, that's not so and proffesionals are trying to get rid of all unnecessary stuff to be free to trade. But many beginners aim on the picture they see in movies and think that a lot of charts and indicators is all about being professional.
  • #136
  • Jan 2, 2020 10:55am Jan 2, 2020 10:55am
Quoting Sainrad754
Noice is the the thing is too hard to overcome and its everywhere when you trade, in your graphs, in your mind and even in actions. The most strange thing is that traders even don't see noice as noice before someone won't show them what the noise really is. In fact, traders create noise as they want to be seen as professionals and a lot of graphs, open windows and other stuff associate with some kind of professionalism. Be sure, that's not so and proffesionals are trying to get rid of all unnecessary stuff to be free to trade. But many beginners...
Yes, I know exactly what you mean!

When I first started trading I felt that I needed at least a couple of screens and had a proper trading desk set up with an extra monitor. I think I felt that I couldn't be a real trader unless I looked like one.

Now, I trade off my laptop and sometimes (shock horror) my iphone! I used to be embarrassed to admit this but now I don't mind because it works (for me anyway, not saying it would suit everyone...)
  • #137
  • Jan 2, 2020 10:57am Jan 2, 2020 10:57am
Quoting ChilledT
{quote} Yes, I know exactly what you mean! When I first started trading I felt that I needed at least a couple of screens and had a proper trading desk set up with an extra monitor. I think I felt that I couldn't be a real trader unless I looked like one. Now, I trade off my laptop and sometimes (shock horror) my iphone! I used to be embarrassed to admit this but now I don't mind because it works (for me anyway, not saying it would suit everyone...)

I trade of my android phone, probably log onto MT4 on my laptop a few times a year if that...
J12
  • #138
  • Jan 2, 2020 10:58am Jan 2, 2020 10:58am
Quoting Sainrad754
Noice is the the thing is too hard to overcome and its everywhere when you trade, in your graphs, in your mind and even in actions. The most strange thing is that traders even don't see noice as noice before someone won't show them what the noise really is. In fact, traders create noise as they want to be seen as professionals and a lot of graphs, open windows and other stuff associate with some kind of professionalism. Be sure, that's not so and proffesionals are trying to get rid of all unnecessary stuff to be free to trade. But many beginners...
Everyone wants this feeling also it probably makes one feel as though they are doing something tbh..
J12
  • #139
  • Jan 2, 2020 4:29pm Jan 2, 2020 4:29pm
Quoting j12
{quote} If you see no point & get nothing out of it then please don't read it. And if you read from the start I've said clearly. Also this is in the trading discussion section of the forum. It's not to tell you or dictate to you what to do. Where to set your SL, TP, use calendars etc. If you want a system then please go to the systems part of the forum. Also you're a new member please read the different sections of the forum. J
I apologise for the misunderstanding I caused. Maybe I didn't read your posts as carefully as I was supposed to.
  • #140
  • Jan 2, 2020 4:45pm Jan 2, 2020 4:45pm
Quoting finally-2020
{quote} I apologise for the misunderstanding I caused. Maybe I didn't read your posts as carefully as I was supposed to.
Hey no problem
J12
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