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To be successful... cut out the noise

  • #101
  • Dec 29, 2019 2:51pm Dec 29, 2019 2:51pm
Quoting OutThere
Since Dec 20th: AUD up 90 pips NZD up 95 pips JPY up and down around 50 pips a few times Chf down 105 pips CAD hi to lo 120 pips GBP down 230 and up 120 pips EUR moved some 120 pips Of course a lot of up and down and zigzags in between, so who knows the cumulative pip count but they were real moves and money could have been made. But if anyone doesn't want to trade during xmas, it is entirely up to them and no excuse needed.
Agreed it's still good movement depending on what ones targets are
J12
  • #102
  • Dec 30, 2019 9:57am Dec 30, 2019 9:57am
I love this quote by Hans Hoffmann, for me it sums up perfectly the benefits of keeping things simple in trading.

"The ability to simplify means to eliminate the unnecessary so that the necessary may speak."
  • #103
  • Dec 30, 2019 10:55am Dec 30, 2019 10:55am
Quoting ChilledT
I love this quote by Hans Hoffmann, for me it sums up perfectly the benefits of keeping things simple in trading. "The ability to simplify means to eliminate the unnecessary so that the necessary may speak."
It's a great quote
J12
  • #104
  • Dec 30, 2019 11:37am Dec 30, 2019 11:37am
Good subject to discuss . . .

Actually this is my first post here since i joined Forex factory in 2009, i was a beginner that time and i lost my first account mid 2008, then i realized that this doesn't fit me so i stopped, i kept looking from time to time, observing the movement, and whats new.

through this 10 years i learned a lot from life and my personality changed much more than i expect, lot of things would be better when you reach 40's so i decide to give it a try.

now i am testing my old strategy (i worked with in 2008) did a back test and try it in demo account since October (and looks promising), start quick recap on what i learned and i discovered that its very very easy to make money in Forex, only us who did complicate the situation while it doesn't need much knowledge as we think, as much ways you apply on your strategy as much as you'll lose, you need only a very simple method to trade with no much elements.

As said its a deadly noise, just keep it simple, and its only about psychology, discipline and patience

Wish me luck guys, i am opening new real account with money i am not in need now
  • #105
  • Dec 30, 2019 12:32pm Dec 30, 2019 12:32pm
Quoting salmuranda
Good subject to discuss . . . Actually this is my first post here since i joined Forex factory in 2009, i was a beginner that time and i lost my first account mid 2008, then i realized that this doesn't fit me so i stopped, i kept looking from time to time, observing the movement, and whats new. through this 10 years i learned a lot from life and my personality changed much more than i expect, lot of things would be better when you reach 40's so i decide to give it a try. now i am testing my old strategy (i worked with in 2008) did a back...

Very similar to me. The time out helps you reflect. Although I've never really been out, but I cut the time I spent doing this dramatically.
J12
  • #106
  • Dec 30, 2019 12:33pm Dec 30, 2019 12:33pm
The methodology of a trade is quite simple in FX. Your chance of winning a trade is 50%, 1:2. You can either buy or sell. The challenge is at what point you're willing to close your trade, what are you happy with, and how much you trust your method of trading.
Many people will think if your account goes in 5% drawdown you've had it, or they start sweating. At 10% they are doomed & then anything else it's totally back to the drawing board, as the method of trading is 100% not working. The countless hours of back testing didn't show this kind of drawdown.

Back testing is no indication of what will happen in the future. When I first started to trade fx there was a good group of guys that back tested, tested again, changed a few things & tested again. But as soon as they put the EA live within a few weeks, boom you lose. Lose even though the back test showed no loss for years. Same for indicators, as they are the things that make a EA.

More important then any of this is to look at how much you have in your account. Trade accordingly rather then trying to make so much money in a few trades just because your back test showed this is the correct way. How deep in drawdown can you actually go before you get that margin call? Has price been in these areas before? These are the questions that you need to be able to answer.

J
J12
  • #107
  • Dec 30, 2019 12:47pm Dec 30, 2019 12:47pm
my sentiments exactly..
  • #108
  • Dec 30, 2019 4:12pm Dec 30, 2019 4:12pm
Quoting j12
The countless hours of back testing didn't show this kind of drawdown. Back testing is no indication of what will happen in the future. When I first started to trade fx there was a good group of guys that back tested, tested again, changed a few things & tested again. But as soon as they put the EA live within a few weeks, boom you lose. Lose even though the back test showed no loss for years.
1. Backtest an EA. When go with real money expect drawdown can be 2x deeper and profit 2x smaller.

2. Never put all egs in 1 basket (EA). Run N EAs in paralel on X accounts. All backtested and as a whole system backtested too - you know from the past max total drawdown for all N EAs and expect it can be 2x more in real life.

3. There are periods (several months or even years) when an EA not working (drawdown). When you combine package with N EAs you compensate and make each year more or less but profitable

4. EAs are based on patterns which repeats over time. Statistics is precise science used in insurance business etc Dont expect particular results from an object but expect results from whole system of objects - thats how insurance business work and similar with EAs

5. When you trade manual you still use an strategy just execute it manually. And you have nothing to compensate it. You put all capital in one idea/subject (you)... no risk diversification.

6. Have running 15 EAs on 1 MT5 account with real money. Profit in 8 months is 35%. Made 1150 deals. Some EAs failed some are good winners and some did nothing. Thats principle of investing - diversify risks.

I know 8 months is not big period but 1150 deals are significant from statistic view point. Have modeling backtests and saw that this approach with N EAs is logical. I wonder that people trade manual or choose 1 EA and put all hopes/capital in 1 idea/approach... if you trade manual you are 1 subject from statistic view point.. no smart investor will invest all capital in 1 subject. Why you do?

Even if you have 1 mil usd and you decide to invest 10% via forex trading you have to split that investment vs multiple subjects. If you trade those 10% manually then you dont diversify risks. You can diversify with N EAs or copy trades from N manual traders who can show some 1-2 years history with success. Yes you can be N+1 manual trader too and you can trade manual but only as N+1 subject.

3. Have running 15 EAs on 1 MT5 account. Profit in 8 months is 35%. Some EAs failed some are good winners and some did nothing. Thats principle of investing - diversify risks. Still learning. Thats what i see from my results so far.
  • #109
  • Edited 6:13pm Dec 30, 2019 5:28pm | Edited 6:13pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} 1. Backtest an EA. When go with real money expect drawdown can be 2x deeper and profit 2x smaller. 2. Never put all egs in 1 basket (EA). Run N EAs in paralel on X accounts. All backtested and as a whole system backtested too - you know from the past max total drawdown for all N EAs and expect it can be 2x more in real life. 3. There are periods (several months or even years) when an EA not working (drawdown). When you combine package with N EAs you compensate and make each year more or less but profitable 4. EAs are based on patterns which...
Joyny good point of view, connect your trade explorer let's see your results for the last 8 months please with the 15 EAs. It'll be good for us all to have a look at actual live data.

Don't want to see the EAs or money or lot sizes, just the % please

Regards
J
J12
  • #110
  • Dec 30, 2019 5:51pm Dec 30, 2019 5:51pm
Quoting Guiyee89
Like the thread buddy. Been trading for 6 years and I started getting progress when I stopped using indicators. My progress actually was breaking even month after month.. Then I realized that my analysing skills were good... but the problem was the noise. Now, I refer to noise as the one inside my head... Greediness, and not being able to be patient.. like .. really patient enough to realize everytime I take a trade if I am taking it because the market is giving me the opportunity to make some cash, or taking the trade because I see what I want...
Hi Guiyee89,
Would you mind sharing your System?
Thanks.
  • #111
  • Dec 30, 2019 11:30pm Dec 30, 2019 11:30pm
Quoting j12
Joyny good point of view, connect your trade explorer let's see your results for the last 8 months please with the 15 EAs. It'll be good for us all to have a look at actual live data. Don't want to see the EAs or money or lot sizes, just the % please Regards J
MT5 accounts can't be connected to trade explorer. FXBlue exposes money.. added capture of mobile screen of fx blue but with latvian labels. So try to map language..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #112
  • Dec 31, 2019 3:12am Dec 31, 2019 3:12am
Quoting joyny
{quote} Have running 15 EAs on 1 MT5 account. Profit in 8 months is 35%. Some EAs failed some are good winners and some did nothing. Thats principle of investing - diversify risks. Still learning. Thats what i see from my results so far.
I read this quote posted by ChilledT "The ability to simplify means to eliminate the unnecessary so that the necessary may speak."

If I follow the quote; you don’t simplify because you let the unnecessary EA’s (the ones that lose in a specific market condition) trade for you in that market condition. If you have the ability to simplify than you use only EA’s which are profitable in the current market conditions, so that the profitable EA’s can speak out loud. Now your complete system whispers with a profit factor of 1.07

There is absolutely no problem with your approach, but it seems ( I can be wrong) that you think that risk diversification is superior. That is not the case.

‘Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing. You only have to do a very few things in your life so long as you don’t do too many things wrong’ ~Warren Buffet
  • #113
  • Dec 31, 2019 6:45am Dec 31, 2019 6:45am
Quoting Dmh
{quote} I read this quote posted by ChilledT "The ability to simplify means to eliminate the unnecessary so that the necessary may speak." If I follow the quote; you don’t simplify because you let the unnecessary EA’s (the ones that lose in a specific market condition) trade for you in that market condition. If you have the ability to simplify than you use only EA’s which are profitable in the current market conditions, so that the profitable EA’s can speak out loud. Now your complete system whispers with a profit factor of 1.07 There is absolutely...
Quoting Dmh
I read this quote posted by ChilledT "The ability to simplify means to eliminate the unnecessary so that the necessary may speak." If I follow the quote; you don’t simplify because you let the unnecessary EA’s (the ones that lose in a specific market condition) trade for you in that market condition. If you have the ability to simplify than you use only EA’s which are profitable in the current market conditions, so that the profitable EA’s can speak out loud. Now your complete system whispers with a profit factor of 1.07
Problem is that nobody knows which EA will work in the future. Every single EA I run was optimized and backtested and on historical data was great results. When you go with real money situation changes... (read forums where people are disappointed running EAs and expecting profits but get drawdowns only..) My goal is a consistent profit every year. I see from 10 years backtesting for my whole system of EAs that there might be years with 300% and might be years with 40% profit. I don't use martingale (maybe some 1,2 volume increasing because of statistics in backtests for some EAs). EAs based on technical analysis and statistics. All with stop loses.

And consider this - you backtested 1 EA and saw that max drawdown for it was 20%. Then you run this 1 EA with real money and reached drawdown 25%. Shut down? Well... If you saw that in 10 years backtests there were 20 times drawdowns in the interval 15% - 20% and you have 25% now.. really shut down? important is total drawdown of all system as a whole. In backtests for all EAs system no more than 25% total drawdown. And I am ready to survive 50% total drawdown.

Here is example for brand new EA system I am working now - there are 13 EAs total downs and ups statistics (have developed special software which merges all separate backtest results in a single run) - initial capital 1000 USD:

2010-08-02 18:00 - 2010-08-11 17:00 down 98 from 1008 was up 8
2010-09-13 02:00 - 2010-10-29 09:00 down 83 from 1009 was up 98
2010-11-30 11:00 - 2010-12-20 02:00 down 72 from 1102 was up 176
2011-01-28 02:00 - 2011-02-03 00:00 down 50 from 1220 was up 190
2011-04-19 11:00 - 2011-05-03 14:00 down 59 from 1450 was up 280
2011-05-11 13:00 - 2011-06-03 16:00 down 66 from 1494 was up 103
2011-08-11 18:00 - 2011-08-30 09:00 down 56 from 1675 was up 247
2011-10-06 14:00 - 2011-10-10 14:00 down 63 from 1728 was up 110
2011-11-23 04:00 - 2011-12-28 17:00 down 69 from 1944 was up 279
2012-04-05 16:00 - 2012-04-27 14:00 down 74 from 2173 was up 299
2012-07-11 14:00 - 2012-07-19 09:00 down 52 from 2367 was up 267
2013-04-11 11:00 - 2013-05-03 16:00 down 90 from 3004 was up 690
2013-06-05 20:00 - 2013-06-11 18:00 down 58 from 3026 was up 112
2013-08-15 03:00 - 2013-09-02 04:00 down 80 from 3225 was up 258
2014-01-08 14:00 - 2014-01-23 04:00 down 77 from 3425 was up 280
2014-05-14 08:00 - 2014-06-09 17:00 down 54 from 3620 was up 272
2014-07-11 16:00 - 2014-09-02 10:00 down 69 from 3630 was up 64
2014-09-19 05:00 - 2014-10-09 18:00 down 53 from 3724 was up 163
2014-12-15 08:00 - 2015-01-02 23:00 down 84 from 4015 was up 345
2015-01-27 16:00 - 2015-02-05 18:00 down 69 from 4040 was up 108
2015-04-02 16:00 - 2015-04-16 19:00 down 63 from 4202 was up 231
2015-05-04 11:00 - 2015-05-08 12:00 down 50 from 4239 was up 100
2015-09-14 01:00 - 2015-09-23 14:00 down 57 from 4706 was up 517
2015-10-09 02:00 - 2015-11-03 10:00 down 94 from 4733 was up 84
2016-01-20 06:00 - 2016-02-04 19:00 down 109 from 4886 was up 247
2016-04-18 14:00 - 2016-05-13 19:00 down 95 from 5261 was up 484
2016-10-04 21:00 - 2016-11-03 17:00 down 94 from 5588 was up 421
2016-12-01 20:00 - 2016-12-08 15:00 down 65 from 5661 was up 167
2017-05-16 14:00 - 2017-06-02 17:00 down 61 from 5946 was up 349
2017-07-11 18:00 - 2017-08-03 15:00 down 90 from 6028 was up 143
2017-10-26 22:00 - 2017-11-13 14:00 down 85 from 6170 was up 232
2018-01-12 03:00 - 2018-01-26 18:00 down 51 from 6188 was up 104
2018-03-12 05:00 - 2018-03-22 18:00 down 57 from 6220 was up 83
2018-06-29 12:00 - 2018-07-25 23:00 down 79 from 6349 was up 185
2019-01-03 14:00 - 2019-02-14 19:00 down 110 from 6764 was up 495
2019-06-05 07:00 - 2019-06-25 14:00 down 70 from 6817 was up 163
2019-08-12 22:00 - 2019-10-17 13:00 down 67 from 6918 was up 171

Here you see that with 0.01 lots max drawdown is 110 USD. So you must be ready to take 220 USD drawdown. Here you can calculate how much initial volume you can afford and how deep % drawdown you are ready to take depending on your risk appetite. Or.. you even can set up 2 parallel accounts and 1 account is running with minimal capital and the second account is running with large capital and you turn on 2nd account EAs when 1st account has 50 USD drawdown and shut down when 1st is up X USD.

Quoting Dmh
There is absolutely no problem with your approach, but it seems ( I can be wrong) that you think that risk diversification is superior. That is not the case. ‘Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing. You only have to do a very few things in your life so long as you don’t do too many things wrong’ ~Warren Buffet
Don't know how much EAs is ok.. I believe 10 to 15 is ok. Will see after ~2 years. I run EAs packages (3 to 15 EAs) on more than 8 different accounts with real money just to see what will work. I am still learning and need several years to learn/find some really profitable and consistent approach.

This is totally true with EAs "Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing".. markets are constantly changing.. you newer can relly on 1 approach. You never know what will work or to whom Trump will give access to his Twitter account. We are blind here because all indicators are based on past data. We don't have an indicator for the future.. I now consider using COT data.. but again needed several months to backtest. Maybe following big guys is a good strategy.. but if there would be a holy grail then everybody would succeed. It is not so. It is ok to know that we don't understand what we are doing here and still can be profitable because using statistic science is possible to get profits. I am testing neural networks too.. our human eyes don't see patterns that "see" Artificial Intelligence. For humans, it's completely "black box"

Thank you for comments and yes that's super great you pointed out that we as investors don't understand what we are doing here!! Look here in forums how many do think they understand and teach others but don't show their results... It is better to know that "I don't understand." I don't believe to any particular EA. But I believe in statistics science.
  • #114
  • Dec 31, 2019 9:13am Dec 31, 2019 9:13am
I use only one indicator that is Stoch RSI. That's it. Only naked price action. Candles tell you every thing. (Double bottom/tops, fractals my fav).
  • #115
  • Dec 31, 2019 9:25am Dec 31, 2019 9:25am
I can't talk much about EAs because I haven't tried any, but so far in my years of trading I have never had the same results when forward trading than "backtesting"...
I think because of 2 reasons:

- Probably hard to manage emotions while trading
- Probably hard to do a proper backtesting because you just take statistics from a specific pattern while not taking in consideration the general movement of the pair, which in Live trading means that it won't give the same results as backtested.

Now, this is my experience and my conclusion on backtesting. Maybe I just sucked at it.. Doesn't mean it can't work for others.


Quoting zeeftrader
{quote} Hi Guiyee89, Would you mind sharing your System? Thanks.
Hey zeeftrader, I don't use any specific "System" anymore... I rather try to understand what is the price doing and might be going.

I like to do a multi timeframe analysis using 3 TFs.. For example MN- W1 -D1 ... I use the highest one to find a "range" or "trend", the middle one to find "momemtum" inside, and the last one to entry using the most basic concept of technical analysis in terms of "change of trend" ... which is h/h - h/l concept.

Now, like I said before. I believe that a "system" or a way of trading is not enough, the psychology aspects of trading are as important or even more than the technical part.

Can you tell when you are overtrading?.. taking unneccesary trades?

Regards,
GMD
  • #116
  • Dec 31, 2019 12:17pm Dec 31, 2019 12:17pm
[quote=j12;12676871]{quote} If you look at the chart below, I exited at 0.98963, got 80 pips or 1.2% I could have been in this trade, continued would have doubled to almost 3% or 4% 200+ pips. Does this mean my exit strategy is wrong? Is my risk reward is wrong? Well firstly for me no, because another pair has given me 4% more. Yes I would have liked to take it all. But I'm not perfect, I can't predict the future. Neither can anyone else. Secondly I don't really pay much attention to RRR. The pair by the way is USD CHF I entered roughly at the top red line & exited at the bottom, the arrow is all that I've missed & what I'm continuing to miss. The first red line is a bit to high before anyone jumps in and points it out, so I've attached the actual positions. Apologies in using my phone But I guess you can see the point I'm trying to make. {image} {image}[/quotJ

j12 -- I am really enjoying your thread. My trading journey has been a long one. I do not normally post and I have no interest in trying to teach people how to trade. Your points are all well taken. I just wanted to share a couple of points to add to the discussion.

1. Regarding the trade example quoted in this post, you had a profitable trade. That's the goal. You do not want a perfect trade. You want a profitable trade.

2. There is a "Holy Grail" and the Grail is the person trading the market. Two people can trade the same system and get different results. People who are not successful tend to second guess their decisions or their system because of fear or greed. Find a system that works for you and trade it.

3. People will tell you that your trading is "wrong" or that you can't accomplish your trading goals. Don't listen to them. Take care of your own house, trade your system your way, set and achieve your own goals. The rest is of no importance.

4. When it comes to trading, don't believe people, believe data. If someone tells you something but can't back it up with data, they are probably full of it.

Again, really enjoying the thread. I will continue to follow with interest.
  • #117
  • Dec 31, 2019 1:05pm Dec 31, 2019 1:05pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} {quote} Problem is that nobody knows which EA will work in the future. Every single EA I run was optimized and backtested and on historical data was great results. When you go with real money situation changes... (read forums where people are disappointed running EAs and expecting profits but get drawdowns only..) My goal is a consistent profit every year. I see from 10 years backtesting for my whole system of EAs that there might be years with 300% and might be years with 40% profit. I don't use martingale (maybe some 1,2 volume increasing...
I would recommend using INS and OOS periods, walk-forward testing, parameter robustness testing along with Monte Carlo simulation prior to considering an algo viable.
  • #118
  • Dec 31, 2019 1:53pm Dec 31, 2019 1:53pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} MT5 accounts can't be connected to trade explorer. FXBlue exposes money.. added capture of mobile screen of fx blue but with latvian labels. So try to map language.. {image}

That's great Joyny hope you can carry on with this success for years to come, shame you can not connect a 3rd party to verify the data. But if the 15 EAs are working carry on. If you are getting 30%+ you're doing really well

Hopefully you can apply the same concept to the accounts you have connected to ForexFactory Trade Explorer, they show overall losses.

Regards

J
J12
  • #119
  • Dec 31, 2019 1:54pm Dec 31, 2019 1:54pm
Quoting Dmh
{quote} I read this quote posted by ChilledT "The ability to simplify means to eliminate the unnecessary so that the necessary may speak." If I follow the quote; you don’t simplify because you let the unnecessary EA’s (the ones that lose in a specific market condition) trade for you in that market condition. If you have the ability to simplify than you use only EA’s which are profitable in the current market conditions, so that the profitable EA’s can speak out loud. Now your complete system whispers with a profit factor of 1.07 There is absolutely...

I agree with you here DMH
J12
  • #120
  • Dec 31, 2019 1:59pm Dec 31, 2019 1:59pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} {quote} Problem is that nobody knows which EA will work in the future. Every single EA I run was optimized and backtested and on historical data was great results. When you go with real money situation changes... (read forums where people are disappointed running EAs and expecting profits but get drawdowns only..) My goal is a consistent profit every year. I see from 10 years backtesting for my whole system of EAs that there might be years with 300% and might be years with 40% profit. I don't use martingale (maybe some 1,2 volume increasing...
You believe in statistics & science, so have many in the past, and many continue to. The only thing is this probably 10% statistics 90% mental.

If it was just stats & science we probably wouldn't be even having this conversation. But it seems as though you have found something that works for you with the 15EAs on MetaTrader5. Hopefully it works out.

J
J12
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