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  • #99,821
  • Dec 30, 2019 10:17am Dec 30, 2019 10:17am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Miti, I hold you to those words, but let's be honest, it is like saying the market will go to x before it will go to y. Why should it crash? why should it stay up? Why should it drop hard when we reach y. I trade what I see. It is a matter of timing for me. No offense Bud, but perhaps you know something I don't. Cheers.
Hi Wave,

This pair is hardly GU and it is the most traded pair in the world. It hardly ever moves in one direction and all indicators in all timeframes from the daily downwards are overextended into the overbought areas. My personal system states that there are inconsistencies at particular prices and judging this pair for over 10 years those area will be retouched soon. There are many other factors, but these should suffice.
  • #99,822
  • Dec 30, 2019 10:22am Dec 30, 2019 10:22am
Quoting wealthyqueen
{quote}
I see you feel it!!
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #99,823
  • Dec 30, 2019 10:25am Dec 30, 2019 10:25am
1.122 then 1.125, then 1.127. All good resistances, but who knows where it will stop.
  • #99,824
  • Dec 30, 2019 10:33am Dec 30, 2019 10:33am
I just post a clue chart, but it is not EURUSD so I cant post here https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post12680979
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #99,825
  • Edited 10:43am Dec 30, 2019 10:33am | Edited 10:43am
Till now we haven't had a good candlestick reversal pattern on the 4hr chart. That is the only time I'd start looking for good sells.
  • #99,826
  • Dec 30, 2019 10:39am Dec 30, 2019 10:39am
if the average movement is taken between 2500-3000 Points and draws the lowest line at 1.09888. EURUSD possibly stops at the price range 1.12388-1.12888.

This is only a theory, but in reality the market is not easy to predict.
There is no perfect system
  • #99,827
  • Dec 30, 2019 10:41am Dec 30, 2019 10:41am
Quoting Tecnocrat
Is it my broker or the spread is insane? Are you seeing the same thing in your platforms?
It is not only your broker but all of them I think. Because of the lack of liquidity they not only increase spreads but also swap rates. Here are swap examples from 26 December and today. Have you ever seen a negative swap rate of 58% for short AUDJPY or negative 27% swap rate for long EURUSD? Welcome to insanity
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 26 Dec.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 30 Dec.png Size: 31 KB
  • #99,828
  • Dec 30, 2019 10:43am Dec 30, 2019 10:43am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Hi Wave, This pair is hardly GU and it is the most traded pair in the world. It hardly ever moves in one direction and all indicators in all timeframes from the daily downwards are overextended into the overbought areas. My personal system states that there are inconsistencies at particular prices and judging this pair for over 10 years those area will be retouched soon. There are many other factors, but these should suffice.
Well, I should know about this pair since I've been following it since 2006. We are in o/bought areas on the hourly up to daily t/frame but not on the weekly time frame and upwards. All I am saying is that 2020 is a new year.
Quote
It hardly ever moves in one direction
,
All it has done is move in one direction since the beginning of Jan 2018. Consider a retrace if you may
No offense Miti, I respect your views and then again nothing is sure in forex.

Cheers Bud.
Trade to trade another day
  • #99,829
  • Dec 30, 2019 10:48am Dec 30, 2019 10:48am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Well, I should know about this pair since I've been following it since 2006. We are in o/bought areas on the hourly up to daily t/frame but not on the weekly time frame and upwards. All I am saying is that 2020 is a new year. {quote}, All it has done is move in one direction since the beginning of Jan 2018. Consider a retrace if you may No offense Miti, I respect your views and then again nothing is sure in forex. Cheers Bud.
Well I guess you are in for some friendly banter. No, price didn't move in one direction since Jan 2018. We had series of times when we had 200-pip corrections. I know you know what I mean.

My level of 1.122x - 1.123x is almost here. I am watching.
  • #99,830
  • Dec 30, 2019 10:51am Dec 30, 2019 10:51am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} It is not only your broker but all of them I think. Because of the lack of liquidity they not only increase spreads but also swap rates. Here are swap examples from 26 December and today. Have you ever seen a negative swap rate of 58% for short AUDJPY or negative 27% swap rate for long EURUSD? Welcome to insanity {image} {image}
The EU spreads hsve been very annoying. I hold a long from 1.1052 in a separate account I hold. I intend to close it tonight for swap sake. Already closed about 5 such longs today. The swaps eat into profits. Right now hunting for a sell and when it happens I will know.
  • #99,831
  • Dec 30, 2019 10:58am Dec 30, 2019 10:58am
Sell order activated
@1.1215, SL @1.2500........TP Open, see you at the bottom.
"Your Habits Will Determine Your Future"
  • #99,832
  • Dec 30, 2019 10:59am Dec 30, 2019 10:59am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} Hammer turned into engulfing. Trade looks to be a sell but cycles work tells me there should be one more push up into year end. Then the new year EURUSD ball drop happens. Of course anything can happen and I may be wrong. Not the first time, or the last, lol. {image}
Looking very bullish in low liquidity environment. I added a 200 MA to chart for emphasis.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 96 KB


With retail traders heavily shorting, this is most likely going to continue into 2020 so I believe the downturn will be delayed until those numbers change. Still holding some shorts in my long term forex account but not adding, yet. I actually trimmed my positions before the holiday season in anticipation of the push up into the new year.

Nothing to do right now as my trading is over for 2019. My bias is very bullish as the movers are being forced to hold longs against the retail positions so 2020 will have me holding shorts in my long term account and scalping longs in my short term account until the tides turns.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #99,833
  • Dec 30, 2019 11:25am Dec 30, 2019 11:25am
Quoting LCForex
{quote} Why to risk in this momentum. It could continue higher, do not think: "it is high enough now so it should go down". You sell today, also you do not know what could happen at 31th or 1st when the market is closed for us. For your bad luck the market continues higher, then NFP friday, your numbers does not go in your way, could be a desaster. {image}
Tomorrow we could see the end of this movement based on this fractal at 1.1225.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 227 KB
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #99,834
  • Dec 30, 2019 11:40am Dec 30, 2019 11:40am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Well I guess you are in for some friendly banter. No, price didn't move in one direction since Jan 2018. We had series of times when we had 200-pip corrections.I know you know what I mean. My level of 1.122x - 1.123x is almost here. I am watching.
Hi Miti,

I merely responded to a question from you.

To be honest I am not into friendly banter, I merely want to state the facts.
Quote
No, price didn't move in one direction since Jan 2018.
Yes of course it did. It moved down 1354 pips.
Quote
We had series of times when we had 200-pip corrections.
Yes of course, but I have to remind you that the latest correction has been 300 pips up.

Miti, I am not here to prove right or wrong . I am responding to your response, nothing to prove.

Let it rest
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #99,835
  • Dec 30, 2019 11:44am Dec 30, 2019 11:44am
Quoting Wavegarrick
All I can say is that bulls are trying to hold above 1.1200 at the moment, not my typical reversal signals and we are going into end of day. Cheers.
End of day... and End of Year. I don't see reversal either but never afraid of being wrong ;-)
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #99,836
  • Dec 30, 2019 11:57am Dec 30, 2019 11:57am
Closed 3 Short positions.

Got SL on one and made a few pips on the other two. Call it a wash.

No movement, not trading EURUSD today anymore.
  • #99,837
  • Dec 30, 2019 12:34pm Dec 30, 2019 12:34pm
If 4H closes bearish, I see 1.1069 soon before new high. Just have to wait it out.
"Your Habits Will Determine Your Future"
  • #99,838
  • Dec 30, 2019 12:49pm Dec 30, 2019 12:49pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Eur30.jpg Size: 211 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Eur60.jpg Size: 177 KB
Patience is the key for success.
  • #99,839
  • Dec 30, 2019 2:43pm Dec 30, 2019 2:43pm
If you zoom out on the daily chart and join the last two highest highs and lows, u will get an idea of what market is trying to do and overcome. We are still in a downward channel until we are not
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #99,840
  • Dec 30, 2019 2:55pm Dec 30, 2019 2:55pm
This is what I am looking for on the EUR/USD.

Purple is taken from the weekly chart. My selling would start around the arrows. The rest should be pretty self explanatory.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_D1.png Size: 51 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_4H_Levels.png Size: 80 KB
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