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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #521
  • Dec 28, 2019 2:32pm Dec 28, 2019 2:32pm
Quoting Neogenesis
Kuroro my friend, I suggest you set out reading about volatility and its impact on stocks. When you understand this, I promise you that you will know the depth of a dip and when the market is about to turn in either direction. You’ll never look back once you have mastered this. P.S - if you don’t believe me, track this post. US indices have slightly dropped (Russell almost 1%). Igrok probably thinks it’s the end of the world. Vol positioning tells me that it’s due a bounce, in the next few trading days bullish activity will resume as volatility...
Talking about Vix and so on. Well i do know about it

You just can't time the market drop regarding this vol index

As far as i know, institutionals traders have been most long since like forever, and without even printing lower vol.

Lets see if this crazy buying materialize soon, with vol spiking and stocks diping

Time will tell
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #522
  • Dec 28, 2019 3:13pm Dec 28, 2019 3:13pm
Oh but it can be timed. Research will lead you to the promise land

Of course, Black swans cannot be timed.. caveat.
  • #523
  • Dec 28, 2019 3:34pm Dec 28, 2019 3:34pm
Quoting Neogenesis
Oh but it can be timed. Research will lead you to the promise land Of course, Black swans cannot be timed.. caveat.
Well, let us know when the market is going to dip then

I'm curious about it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #524
  • Dec 28, 2019 7:12pm Dec 28, 2019 7:12pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Talking about Vix and so on. Well i do know about it You just can't time the market drop regarding this vol index As far as i know, institutionals traders have been most long since like forever, and without even printing lower vol. Lets see if this crazy buying materialize soon, with vol spiking and stocks diping Time will tell
you can time it with VIX futures term curve buddy.
any day close where you get a backwardation at the front end off the VIX futures term curve, you better be running to the hills cuz thats when momentum algos will start to push things further lower.

and we are no where near that.... i cant bloody see any backwardation to warrant selling short the US equity market atm....
we might get another 10-20% year next year for all i care....

Quoting Igrok
{quote} LOL... you've got to be kidding me... by the time you started trading I had already been in this business for over 15 years also making my living exclusively out of the market... you look quite impudent for a novice which actually you're from my point of view ...
hmmmm its like you dont know me at all... and kudos if you have been in this business for over 15 years but time in this business has very little to do with how successful you are at managing money or trading.....
ive also seen many people who used to be bank traders getting old and getting canned cuz they have failed to catch-up with the times of automation and algorithmic trading.

having worked at banks ive seen some far more ccy traders who have work wonders who arent here boasting about how they can make a living out of the market.... its their job to do well... so yea toot your horn elsewhere I guess....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #525
  • Dec 28, 2019 7:24pm Dec 28, 2019 7:24pm
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Right - but if you try and pick tops you sit on the side. I remember last year the debate was whether the s&p would ever hit 3000. The stock market has one direction - up. Don’t be fooled. Take 99 trades and be successful, when you get that 1 loss, sit on the side and wait for the market to show you its direction. Or, sit on the side and never make profit. Corrections will come. If you know how to manage risk it’s not a problem. Personally I can’t wait for a big correction as I will be heavily levered immediately after the correction is...
Another thing is, that US equity indices like S&P or DOW or NASDAQ have seen constituents with mkt cap fall out and removed from indices to be replaced by company not included but has larger market cap.....
this means the indices is only going to go higher and higher.
add that to the formula of a capitalist market + inflation you have a system where there is no choice but to keep printing money to keep satisfying the idea where money makes money.

Why in the fk would a like of warren buffet invest his billions if he isnt going to get a RETURN from it..... the economy will only keep expanding its monetary supply to keep this running. theres really no alternative.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #526
  • Dec 28, 2019 7:35pm Dec 28, 2019 7:35pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} From the COT report, retailers are increasing their long bet at the top, while speculators are a bit short. I wish they were more shorts, but we'll see this week end how the report goes.
ive learned not to look at the COT report..... COT are based on futures. and Futures of an indices is only a small portion of the actual indices.... and thats why there are arbitrage opportunities between Futures v Cash Equities.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #527
  • Dec 29, 2019 6:52am Dec 29, 2019 6:52am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} you can time it with VIX futures term curve buddy. any day close where you get a backwardation at the front end off the VIX futures term curve, you better be running to the hills cuz thats when momentum algos will start to push things further lower. and we are no where near that.... i cant bloody see any backwardation to warrant selling short the US equity market atm.... we might get another 10-20% year next year for all i care.... {quote} hmmmm its like you dont know me at all... and kudos if you have been in this business for over 15 years...
I'm not saying equity market won't rise anymore. It can go another 100/200% up, who knows, nobody does

And i'm sure nobody can tell when a dip is going to happen. If so, please advise, i'm curious about it. But i have NEVER seen anyone capable of doing so, i mean retailer. A pro working for banks is different, he knows so much.

What i find annoying is that everybody is looking at the upside without taking care of the downside. At some point we'll correct a good 10/15% which would be healthly for the uptrend

How many people told me to buy amazon at 2k....before going down 20%.
Everything is rising, until its not. And no one will know when it goes down
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #528
  • Dec 29, 2019 8:25am Dec 29, 2019 8:25am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I'm not saying equity market won't rise anymore. It can go another 100/200% up, who knows, nobody does And i'm sure nobody can tell when a dip is going to happen. If so, please advise, i'm curious about it. But i have NEVER seen anyone capable of doing so, i mean retailer. A pro working for banks is different, he knows so much. What i find annoying is that everybody is looking at the upside without taking care of the downside. At some point we'll correct a good 10/15% which would be healthly for the uptrend How many people told me to buy...

very valid points.

thats why my model is a mere simple ratio analysis between the ES mini futures and US treasury futures.

what i discovered is that the model being either Long only, between Equity and Bond.

its a great way to minimise the downside at very little expense of the actual equity returns.

so when people are suffering from a 10-20 or 40% drawdown my money would be safely parked in treasuries for the durationnof the drawdown. usually 2-3% from peak

vix futures also a great guage... if S&P drops 1% and Vix doesnt flip into backwardation, im not as worried of any full fledged correction.... thats why the early december drop didnt spook me one bit....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #529
  • Dec 29, 2019 12:06pm Dec 29, 2019 12:06pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Well, let us know when the market is going to dip then I'm curious about it
Ugh - have a feeling you wouldn’t be asking this if you read my previous posts properly.

I suggest you read some research papers and you will understand a lot more about volatility in stocks.
  • #530
  • Dec 29, 2019 12:06pm Dec 29, 2019 12:06pm
Quoting HeyYou
markets tend to go thruogh a "boom and bust cycle"... price tend to revert to its average , therefore it's good to have targets........... and to buy the dips, if you can!
All that needs to be said
  • #531
  • Dec 29, 2019 12:17pm Dec 29, 2019 12:17pm
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Ugh - have a feeling you wouldn’t be asking this if you read my previous posts properly. I suggest you read some research papers and you will understand a lot more about volatility in stocks.
I did, but you said you can time the market. But on your previous post you said it should bounce but you are not sure.

So you can't really time it, do you ?

Well i'll keep trading my way, i don't trade stocks really. I'm here for the fun. I only trade forex/commodities

Good luck in your trading
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #532
  • Dec 29, 2019 1:16pm Dec 29, 2019 1:16pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I did, but you said you can time the market. But on your previous post you said it should bounce but you are not sure. So you can't really time it, do you ? Well i'll keep trading my way, i don't trade stocks really. I'm here for the fun. I only trade forex/commodities Good luck in your trading
When did I say I am not sure about anything?

I said Russell has slipped 1% and bullishness will resume in the next few trading days.

Me saying ‘let’s see if I am right’ is just me making a light hearted joke.

i won’t reply any further anyhow. I am making too much money for this shit. Dow for 8k!
  • #533
  • Dec 29, 2019 2:04pm Dec 29, 2019 2:04pm
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} When did I say I am not sure about anything? I said Russell has slipped 1% and bullishness will resume in the next few trading days. Me saying ‘let’s see if I am right’ is just me making a light hearted joke. i won’t reply any further anyhow. I am making too much money for this shit. Dow for 8k!
Well done Buffet! Take care
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #534
  • Dec 29, 2019 3:19pm Dec 29, 2019 3:19pm
Quoting fxtyrant
so yea toot your horn elsewhere I guess....
you wouldn't believe how many "disposable" kids like yourself I have already seen... most of them were bank traders quite ironically... "single-trend gurus", as i used to call them, always end up by drowning themselves along with the rest of financial lemmings whenever the markets turn around...
  • #535
  • Dec 29, 2019 5:12pm Dec 29, 2019 5:12pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Well done Buffet! Take care
Lets see if I can time volatility right: Russell to be bullish and regain its losses in the next few trading days. Same for Dow and S&P.

Or, will the world spiral out of control due to diamond formations?



Also: shouldn’t have said that last bit. I gave valuable information and it wasn’t absorbed, it’s annoying.
  • #536
  • Edited 7:12pm Dec 29, 2019 6:41pm | Edited 7:12pm
The thread starter has commented to some extent that his strategy is rooted in investing so the following comments are from that perspective.

Investment: To invest is to allocate money in the expectation of some benefit in the future.

Most invest in equities because they believe they will benefit from the long term growth of the underlying entity. Otherwise why invest? Investing in equities in hopes of their decline can only last so long before the underlying entities either disappears or become relatively worthless. Most do not invest to this end. Shorting equities is a short term bet in which the seller hopes to benefit from a short term decline in a specified entity. This is not investing. It's gambling. It is a strategy employed by hedge funds with the available resources and involves highly leveraged transactions where only an elite group of high net worth individuals are allowed to play.

Equity markets by their very nature increase in value. This is why investing for the long term works so well. Dollar-cost-average investing is a time-honored investing strategy that works: invest a specified amount regularly so that one is not always buying highs but also lows when the market dips or corrects or even recesses. When the market recovers after dips, corrections or recesses the investor benefits greatly through compounding that occurs especially as a result of those purchases made during dips, corrections or recesses. Buying even as markets are in decline is a profitable investing strategy for the long term in equity markets and has been proven so by the millions investing in such a way in their 401ks, 403bs and similar retirement plans.

Those who micro-manage their investments by market-timing selling and staying on the side-lines after sell-offs usually miss the eventual market recoveries and the return to higher highs that inherently occur in equity markets. Selling and staying out of the market as many do during sell-offs is dangerous. This is because they get into the "market timing" frame of mind trying to get in and out at the best time and while they're figuring this out they are already losing. Even now as markets are at all time highs continued investing for the long term is still a winning strategy. Even if the market turns down buying at a discount is better than shorting at lows and hoping for a quick profit. Shorting equities as an investment strategy is likely to lead to overall poor returns. Aside from hedge funds it would be difficult to find a profitable investing strategy that relies on the intermittent prediction of market sell-offs.
  • #537
  • Dec 29, 2019 8:03pm Dec 29, 2019 8:03pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} you wouldn't believe how many "disposable" kids like yourself I have already seen... most of them were bank traders quite ironically... "single-trend gurus", as i used to call them, always end up by drowning themselves along with the rest of financial lemmings whenever the markets turn around...
thats sort of kids in YOUR generation mate.
and you clearly havent read carefully, although im long only. i have a choice of long US equity or Long US Treasury. when the algos switch into Longing the US Treasury its often to shield from market downturns.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #538
  • Dec 30, 2019 10:11am Dec 30, 2019 10:11am
Hey everyone - you wanted to know when the market is dipping next - markets dipping!
  • #539
  • Dec 30, 2019 11:09am Dec 30, 2019 11:09am
Quoting derekw
Hey everyone - you wanted to know when the market is dipping next - markets dipping!
vix futures not indicative of a continued drop. dont be too surprised if the drop disappears during the week....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #540
  • Dec 30, 2019 4:40pm Dec 30, 2019 4:40pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} thats sort of kids in YOUR generation mate. and you clearly havent read carefully, although im long only. i have a choice of long US equity or Long US Treasury. when the algos switch into Longing the US Treasury its often to shield from market downturns.
i don't really give a damn about your market's positioning... i just don't like your attitude... for me, someone calling himself a trader while also not knowing that each and every trend always ends up eventually with a correction of no less than 38% is pretty much like some sort of a "Baby K"... which is definitely a living creature, but with some serious "birth defects"...
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