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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #501
  • Dec 26, 2019 11:38pm Dec 26, 2019 11:38pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} what im trying to say is that there have been lots of folks much more reputable being permabears and they have all fallen victims and thus becoming perma-losers.... one could also argue that the diamond formation could mean a further break higher... i can even go back in the charts and give you a couple more diamond formation only for S&P to break higher..... {image}
Poor IGROK getting stuck with all the big names calling apocalypse on US Equities....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #502
  • Dec 27, 2019 2:16am Dec 27, 2019 2:16am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i was about to say.... my ratio analysis is still saying hold long on Dow and on S&P against Treasuries.... VIX futures in deep contango.... we are not selling off for the time being.
From the COT report, retailers are increasing their long bet at the top, while speculators are a bit short.

I wish they were more shorts, but we'll see this week end how the report goes.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #503
  • Dec 27, 2019 2:38am Dec 27, 2019 2:38am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} From the COT report, retailers are increasing their long bet at the top, while speculators are a bit short. I wish they were more shorts, but we'll see this week end how the report goes.
I don't see any fundamental reason to be shorting this market. There is no reasons for bears here... absolutely nothing at the moment.
I have a feeling markets are looking to end and finish the year at all time high!
  • #504
  • Dec 27, 2019 3:06am Dec 27, 2019 3:06am
Quoting Forex.RayV1
{quote} I don't see any fundamental reason to be shorting this market. There is no reasons for bears here... absolutely nothing at the moment. I have a feeling markets are looking to end and finish the year at all time high!
Nor i see fundamental reasons to buy it at all time high
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #505
  • Dec 27, 2019 5:15am Dec 27, 2019 5:15am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Nor i see fundamental reasons to buy it at all time high
Feds printing, Uncertanity fear not there anymore. Trump likely to win 2020 again, Trump impeachment not going to happen. Fear of trade wars gone. There is nothing to fear to short this market at the moment. With herd mentality of price only goes up and up... with greed factor favouring the bulls... I see DOW at 30K
  • #506
  • Dec 27, 2019 5:28am Dec 27, 2019 5:28am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Hello Ra. I see your from Canada and I don't know the your country's laws regarding investing. Here in the US we can invest in tax advantaged plans that allow us to avoid taxes on retirement investments in a variety of ways. That aside I take a very simple approach to investing called dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) which is simply investing a fixed amount on a regular schedule. For me this involves having this amount taken out of every paycheck and directly deposited in my 401k. Having done this for the last 35 years and ignoring market fluctuations...
Thank you for your input Winston, i'll look more into DCA. Appreciate you taking the time in giving me some input and hope you have a good time spending the new years with your loved one.
  • #507
  • Edited 7:48am Dec 27, 2019 6:15am | Edited 7:48am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Nor i see fundamental reasons to buy it at all time high
You do realise that the market has been recording new highs month on month, therefore with that perspective you would essentially be sitting on the side watching the market rise?

Its wise to reduce your risk as the market becomes over extended. At this point you should be in so much profit that you keep going long until the market turns, and walk away with 95% of it banked.
  • #508
  • Dec 27, 2019 9:59am Dec 27, 2019 9:59am
A great thread mate. Much respect! Ignore the people of little faith!

When Trump got in power I went heavily short on the Dow and January 26, 2017 ( Australia day) I closed all my positions it broke the 20,000 barrier and I took a 98,000 dollar loss. Over 50% of it I made trading the dow - I have basically stayed out. Waiting for the 30,000 to be broke and then I will short it heavily dependent on the candle signals. When Trump got in it was 17,000 and 20,000 to a possible 30,000 shortly. You don't have to Einstein to see it's due a big correction. We had 2 back to the 23,000 & 21,000 marks due to Trade war.
There are so many Black Swans lurking we see how this plays out but my gut feeling 2020 and Igrok thread could be a heavily read thread - incidentally, I am a spiritualist I hope my crystal ball is correct Wait for the Diamond to form!
  • #509
  • Dec 27, 2019 3:28pm Dec 27, 2019 3:28pm
Quoting redpants
A great thread mate. Much respect! Ignore the people of little faith! When Trump got in power I went heavily short on the Dow and January 26, 2017 ( Australia day) I closed all my positions it broke the 20,000 barrier and I took a 98,000 dollar loss. Over 50% of it I made trading the dow - I have basically stayed out. Waiting for the 30,000 to be broke and then I will short it heavily dependent on the candle signals. When Trump got in it was 17,000 and 20,000 to a possible 30,000 shortly. You don't have to Einstein to see it's due a big correction....
sad to hear that, mate... if you knew something about diamonds back then I guess you wouldn't insist on shorting the stocks over that period as the Dow had formed a continuation diamond by the end of June, 2016 and the measured objective target was then set at 28K+... it's a totally different story now... Dow will get back to 18K level (thus returning to that old diamond levels) no matter what and regardless of any other fundamental or technical reasons... it works pretty much like the "law of gravity" and can't be just cancelled or defied somehow... though in case another new diamond really gets formed at the top by the end of 2020 or something, then the probability for it to revisit 6K level and even below will increase greatly...
  • #510
  • Dec 27, 2019 4:08pm Dec 27, 2019 4:08pm
A correction may begin next month if divergent resistance does not become support then it will be a downtrend depending on the annual close.

maybe we'll be negotiating a head.
  • #511
  • Dec 27, 2019 4:09pm Dec 27, 2019 4:09pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Poor IGROK getting stuck with all the big names calling apocalypse on US Equities....
LOL... you've got to be kidding me... by the time you started trading I had already been in this business for over 15 years also making my living exclusively out of the market... you look quite impudent for a novice which actually you're from my point of view ...
  • #512
  • Dec 27, 2019 4:19pm Dec 27, 2019 4:19pm
Quoting Marcieny
A correction may begin next month if divergent resistance does not become support then it will be a downtrend depending on the annual close. maybe we'll be negotiating a head.
there is no need to predict exact tops or bottoms on advance... in this case the signal to short it will come naturally in its due time as usual...
  • #513
  • Dec 28, 2019 10:36am Dec 28, 2019 10:36am
I feel Ray Dalio had it right, and if anyone is interest I strongly suggest you look into A template for understanding Big Debt Crises. For those of you who don't know much about this hedge fund manager. He built his own hedge fund called Bridgewater, lost almost everything when he tried predicting a recession, now he's worth $17 billion.

I believe we see all the signs of another correction, but it's really going to be dictated by the FED and how this QE policy plays out.

As long as the US keeps up the balancing act of servicing the debt owed with what debt they're lending we could see what they call a 'beautiful deleveraging' this may possibly cause a correction, but nothing as large as some of us anticipate.

2018-2019 when the FED tried raising rates again showed that they had to slow down because it appeared that company statements were looking grim based off the debt they took on for growth during the Obama administration. That's why we saw massive volatility around that time. It's the FED's responsibility that they can service some of the debt without causing another bubble or recession. Whether we've learned from the past, or we're doomed to repeat it... I cried recession in April 2018 and am still waiting....

To me, it seems that each new Chairman that assumes the FED throne is sitting on a ticking time bomb that they're desperately trying to ensure doesn't go off when they're sitting on it. Same with the President, no one wants to have that shit to shoulder... so this is why I believe 'the bubble will burst' just watching politicians and policy makers playing hot potato with the US economy waiting for someone to drop it lol.

Just my thoughts..
  • #514
  • Dec 28, 2019 10:39am Dec 28, 2019 10:39am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} You do realise that the market has been recording new highs month on month, therefore with that perspective you would essentially be sitting on the side watching the market rise? Its wise to reduce your risk as the market becomes over extended. At this point you should be in so much profit that you keep going long until the market turns, and walk away with 95% of it banked.
Thinking that way, you were the one buying Bitcoin at 19K ? buying gold at 1900 ? buying palladium near 2000 ? and so on.

I'm not saying it won't rise, but its overextended, you gotta be crazy to buy something that expansive, expecting to make loads of money while you can buy it at a discount of 10/15%

But its only me

And index is only one asset among other. I'm focusing on currency/commodities
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #515
  • Dec 28, 2019 11:08am Dec 28, 2019 11:08am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Thinking that way, you were the one buying Bitcoin at 19K ? buying gold at 1900 ? buying palladium near 2000 ? and so on. I'm not saying it won't rise, but its overextended, you gotta be crazy to buy something that expansive, expecting to make loads of money while you can buy it at a discount of 10/15% But its only me And index is only one asset among other. I'm focusing on currency/commodities
No - I bought bitcoin at 7k and everyone was shorting it all the way up to 19k. LOL

Perspective.

Folks, this market will correct. No doubt about it. I couldn’t care less for the technical debate about how much.

It seems as though you are all trading as if you can’t take one loss. Allow me to explain, I have made more than 50 trades on indices with 100% win rate while retail traders remain shorting. One day, the market is going to turn and I will take a loss. 50 wins and 1 loss for example, isn’t going to make a dent on my account because I understand risk management.

I have said it before and I will say it again: Everyone will remain drinking Coca Cola, eating McDonalds, watching Netflix films on their Apple laptops and phones which they searched for on Google, ordered from Amazon and had delivered via UPS.

The stock market isn’t going to die. It grows with the population.

Buy the fucking dip!
  • #516
  • Dec 28, 2019 11:50am Dec 28, 2019 11:50am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} No - I bought bitcoin at 7k and everyone was shorting it all the way up to 19k. LOL Perspective. Folks, this market will correct. No doubt about it. I couldn’t care less for the technical debate about how much. It seems as though you are all trading as if you can’t take one loss. Allow me to explain, I have made more than 50 trades on indices with 100% win rate while retail traders remain shorting. One day, the market is going to turn and I will take a loss. 50 wins and 1 loss for example, isn’t going to make a dent on my account because...
I think the idea is it's top heavy and every short entered could be the big one, upside is rather limited, especially the speed of it however, the short when it comes will be frantic, you have an excellent point about growing with population but profit will be booked at some point, when a stall is nearing, the market will bring this down on it's own accord only to buy in and start the process again, it's how money's made, I have traded both sides of this market with similar results but never took my eyes of the trades, there at the birth there at the death and never taken anything for granted, the minute we assume, and I think the market want's us too, will be our demise, only my opinion, D
EDIT
BTW, fundamentals aren't my strong point, the chart shows the way, geopolitical conditions only quicken or negate the process.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #517
  • Dec 28, 2019 11:52am Dec 28, 2019 11:52am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} No - I bought bitcoin at 7k and everyone was shorting it all the way up to 19k.
Without leverage, they should been in profit as it went down to 3K

Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Buy the fucking dip!
Sure, but 1% dip ? 5% ? 15% ? depends what it a dip.

What if you buy the 1% dip and it goes down another 20% ? you add more? or you wait for months and months to get your money back?

Perspective like you said dude
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #518
  • Dec 28, 2019 12:00pm Dec 28, 2019 12:00pm
Kuroro my friend, I suggest you set out reading about volatility and its impact on stocks.

When you understand this, I promise you that you will know the depth of a dip and when the market is about to turn in either direction.

You’ll never look back once you have mastered this.

P.S - if you don’t believe me, track this post. US indices have slightly dropped (Russell almost 1%). Igrok probably thinks it’s the end of the world. Vol positioning tells me that it’s due a bounce, in the next few trading days bullish activity will resume as volatility lowers again.

... hope I am not wrong now
  • #519
  • Dec 28, 2019 1:34pm Dec 28, 2019 1:34pm
Quoting detector
{quote} I think the idea is it's top heavy and every short entered could be the big one, upside is rather limited, especially the speed of it however, the short when it comes will be frantic, you have an excellent point about growing with population but profit will be booked at some point, when a stall is nearing, the market will bring this down on it's own accord only to buy in and start the process again, it's how money's made, I have traded both sides of this market with similar results but never took my eyes of the trades, there at the birth...
Right - but if you try and pick tops you sit on the side. I remember last year the debate was whether the s&p would ever hit 3000.

The stock market has one direction - up. Don’t be fooled. Take 99 trades and be successful, when you get that 1 loss, sit on the side and wait for the market to show you its direction.

Or, sit on the side and never make profit.

Corrections will come. If you know how to manage risk it’s not a problem. Personally I can’t wait for a big correction as I will be heavily levered immediately after the correction is compete, exponentially increasing my profits.

Patience, risk management and courage is key.

The correction won’t happen because of a diamond pattern or a head and shoulders. Last year the horrible slide was caused by a random Chinese arrest and Brexit volatility aka, bullshit to meet the agenda of the Market’s controlling powers. It will probably be another black swan at 2am that brings the market down.
  • #520
  • Dec 28, 2019 2:04pm Dec 28, 2019 2:04pm
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Right - but if you try and pick tops you sit on the side. I remember last year the debate was whether the s&p would ever hit 3000. The stock market has one direction - up. Don’t be fooled. Take 99 trades and be successful, when you get that 1 loss, sit on the side and wait for the market to show you its direction. Or, sit on the side and never make profit. Corrections will come. If you know how to manage risk it’s not a problem. Personally I can’t wait for a big correction as I will be heavily levered immediately after the correction is...
NG, true, keeping an eye on while being elsewhere though, more opportunist, I also take the spike, seen it come around many times, your last portion of the post, very true, wake in the morning and everyone's off guard, always close the breaks and no weekends.
I work with my indicators, when they say, I do, probably more akin to daytrading, however, an entry at the right point, with a good wind will put distance between you and the trade, any deepen meaning, will only be by chance, BTW, not being anti, always value a good post, if there was non, I wouldn't reply, all the best for the New Year and good profits too you, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
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