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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #461
  • Dec 19, 2019 10:52am Dec 19, 2019 10:52am
Quoting jmflukeiii
Buy climax finally?
short spy 320.52. $0.20 stop.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #462
  • Dec 19, 2019 11:17am Dec 19, 2019 11:17am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} short spy 320.52. $0.20 stop.
Well i guess the end of the stock market will come some time later.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #463
  • Dec 19, 2019 5:11pm Dec 19, 2019 5:11pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Well i guess the end of the stock market will come some time later.
that particular trade was an obvious waste of time and money from the very beginning as there was no reliable level for stops... nothing at all whatsoever...
  • #464
  • Dec 19, 2019 5:45pm Dec 19, 2019 5:45pm
Quoting deltaone
this thread is a joke - and all who really think this might happen are fools.
Hahahahaahah. I was literally about to say the same.

Did anyone see the article on Bloomberg yesterday with regards to IBs stripping out their researchers?

They plotted a timeline of results if you listened to the pessimism of renowned economists, the outcome was hilarious.

Sure, the US has crippling debt as do most countries. Guess you missed all the liquidity injections that just keeps shit going in the meantime. Plus the stimulus of low interest rates giving rise to FAANG making ridiculously cheap stock buy backs and retail borrowing opportunities.

Equity markets will correct. No recession is impending. Turn off your TOR browser, have a shower and tell your mom that you’ll be down for dinner shortly.
  • #465
  • Dec 20, 2019 11:57am Dec 20, 2019 11:57am
stocks are only rising because of the people who are short in that trade ...

"the price goes up the stairs and down the elevator"

Nothing goes up without stopping.
  • #466
  • Dec 20, 2019 12:34pm Dec 20, 2019 12:34pm
Quoting Marcieny
stocks are only rising because of the people who are short in that trade ... "the price goes up the stairs and down the elevator" Nothing goes up without stopping.
the more it goes up, the more people will short. Based on your assumption and mine, it means it will never go down ?

At some point, it will go down like crazy....like bitcoin

Just a matter of time...meanwhile it can rises another 10/20/30% and clear all shorts

I have NEVER seen anyone giving good calls shorting the equity market
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #467
  • Dec 20, 2019 12:40pm Dec 20, 2019 12:40pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} the more it goes up, the more people will short. Based on your assumption and mine, it means it will never go down ? At some point, it will go down like crazy....like bitcoin Just a matter of time...meanwhile it can rises another 10/20/30% and clear all shorts I have NEVER seen anyone giving good calls shorting the equity market
no one buys at the top ... the price is cyclic .. i agree with you sometime there will be some correction ... the question is can the dollar go to the moon should stocks fall? because it's always the reverse.
  • #468
  • Dec 20, 2019 12:51pm Dec 20, 2019 12:51pm
Quoting Marcieny
{quote} no one buys at the top ... the price is cyclic .. i agree with you sometime there will be some correction ... the question is can the dollar go to the moon should stocks fall? because it's always the reverse.
There is no tops until it falls, then you know the top. Hence its impossible to get a top of a market, people will keep shorting the highs, while other will buy into it

Buying tops in equities is the way to go for the past weeks.

To me, all of this fuze looks fake, we'll know soon once real sellers awake
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #469
  • Edited 1:08pm Dec 20, 2019 12:53pm | Edited 1:08pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} There is no tops until it falls, then you know the top. Hence its impossible to get a top of a market, people will keep shorting the highs, while other will buy into it Buying tops in equities is the way to go for the past weeks. To me, all of this fuze looks fake, we'll know soon once real sellers awake
I am waiting for the selling force to appear ... but will be in divergent resistance soon ..

I would say the biggest of all case resitances, she doesn't turn support. I believe the price will not break it so easily.
maybe make a 13% correction in a few weeks.
  • #470
  • Dec 21, 2019 8:21am Dec 21, 2019 8:21am
Quoting Marcieny
{quote} I believe the price will not break it so easily. maybe make a 13% correction in a few weeks.
eventual correction cannot be shorter than return back to the 2016 continuation diamond at around 18K level... it's a must regardless of anything else... even if it now somehow goes further up ten million thousand pips it will get back to it... it's a law of nature... nothing can be done to defy it... the conclusion is quite simple: the higher it goes now - the more devastating will be the outcome some time in the future...
  • #471
  • Dec 21, 2019 3:12pm Dec 21, 2019 3:12pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} that particular trade was an obvious waste of time and money from the very beginning as there was no reliable level for stops... nothing at all whatsoever...
Yes, you get out when price goes higher and then trade long. The lost was minuscule. The breakout from the 3 day range was a success, although breakouts typically fail. So get out, and look for long.

Your entry from earlier has a bigger risk and was taken mid-range.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #472
  • Dec 21, 2019 3:27pm Dec 21, 2019 3:27pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} eventual correction cannot be shorter than return back to the 2016 continuation diamond at around 18K level... it's a must regardless of anything else... even if it now somehow goes further up ten million thousand pips it will get back to it... it's a law of nature... nothing can be done to defy it... the conclusion is quite simple: the higher it goes now - the more devastating will be the outcome some time in the future...
Is true... In a manipulated market anything can happen .... but the more the manipulation goes far the worse it is.
  • #473
  • Dec 21, 2019 3:38pm Dec 21, 2019 3:38pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Yes, you get out when price goes higher and then trade long. The lost was minuscule. The breakout from the 3 day range was a success, although breakouts typically fail. So get out, and look for long. Your entry from earlier has a bigger risk and was taken mid-range.
shorting from current levels is not about trading... it's pretty much an investment strategy...
  • #474
  • Dec 21, 2019 3:40pm Dec 21, 2019 3:40pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} shorting from current levels is not about trading... it's pretty much an investment strategy...
Fair enough. I’m “trading” both directions, but “investing” long (since long time ago).
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #475
  • Dec 21, 2019 7:55pm Dec 21, 2019 7:55pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} shorting from current levels is not about trading... it's pretty much an investment strategy...
Wasn't sure if your "predictions" were based on an investment or trading strategy but now we know and I think this distinction is revealing.

Entertaining short trades is tempting given these highs but the technicals on pretty much any time/tick chart don't support this.

From an investing perspective I've been dollar cost averaging into the total stock market for many years and this has done extremely well for me. I bought the 1987 crash, all "crashes" since and the "crash" in 2008-09. All those who sold those "crashes" have done very poorly from a long term investing perspective. In fact, persistent buying in those markets has led to significant wealth for those who have believed in the strength of the US economy. Selling those markets and expecting further declines was a loser's game. Selling those markets and parking in cash was also a loser's game as these individuals missed out on the very significant market gains we've enjoyed over the last 10 years.

It's difficult to argue with US markets and their resiliency in all economic conditions. Shorting on a short term trading basis where stops prevent significant losses is plausible. As history has proven investing in the long term decline of US markets is a losers game. Expecting a cataclysmic US market decline as is suggested in this thread would benefit no one. No one would make any money as the feds would kick in safeguards.

Anyone who gives their hard-earned money to someone intending to invest it in a potential catastrophic decline in US markets deserves what they get.

It's likely that a significant corrections will occur. Expecting those corrections to devolve into come kind of depression borders on conspiracy theory.
Freedom is not free
  • #476
  • Dec 21, 2019 8:01pm Dec 21, 2019 8:01pm
Quoting Marcieny
{quote} no one buys at the top ... the price is cyclic .. i agree with you sometime there will be some correction ... the question is can the dollar go to the moon should stocks fall? because it's always the reverse.
I'm still buying.
Freedom is not free
  • #477
  • Dec 21, 2019 8:39pm Dec 21, 2019 8:39pm
Quoting Abe16
{quote} I'm still buying.
Hi Abe.... good trade for you.....I have many reasons to sell. I waiting forward to the closing of the month ..Time Will Tell lol.
  • #478
  • Dec 22, 2019 4:55am Dec 22, 2019 4:55am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Fair enough. I’m “trading” both directions, but “investing” long (since long time ago).
picking tops or bottoms requires some proven strategies and techniques... but even then it's not always possible to apply them under certain circumstance... usually the largest problem in such a case is a trader's inability to find a reliable stops level... and more often than not it's not even a trader's fault but the overall market situation that doesn't offer such an opportunity as entering a trade with definitive risk/reward ratio well calculated in advance...
  • #479
  • Dec 22, 2019 5:04am Dec 22, 2019 5:04am
Picking the top of a bull market is a fools errand, you'll never get it right
  • #480
  • Edited 5:40am Dec 22, 2019 5:16am | Edited 5:40am
Quoting rover99x
Picking the top of a bull market is a fools errand, you'll never get it right
as a matter of fact I did it right several times... not the very top or bottom, but pretty close to it... though doing that I already had a method and quite a lot of practical experience... for example I shortened eur/jpy on August, 7-th 2008 at 169.45 with just 10 pips stops through a limit order placed a couple of days in advance and then pocketed over 4000 pips in October on that short... that was an example of well calculated top picking attempt during the 15-th year of my trading career...
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