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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #421
  • Dec 17, 2019 12:45pm Dec 17, 2019 12:45pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} the most bullish sentiment is always on the very top of a trend... that's the rule...
Daily market sentiment (from DSI) as of yesterday

Nikkei : 89% bulls
S&P : 85% bulls
Nasdaq : 83%

And from public source, aka CNN
Fear and greed indicator is 84 bulls

All seems very bullish, it can last more though, even though it looks overstretched
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #422
  • Dec 17, 2019 12:49pm Dec 17, 2019 12:49pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
{quote} Indeed possible as diamonds can cover the whole preceding trend. 167-170 is a must.
Yes you are correct, anything is possible.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #423
  • Dec 17, 2019 1:11pm Dec 17, 2019 1:11pm
pic
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  • #424
  • Dec 17, 2019 1:53pm Dec 17, 2019 1:53pm
Broadening formation on $XHB. Could become a very symmetrical one.
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  • #425
  • Dec 17, 2019 2:24pm Dec 17, 2019 2:24pm
Quoting Igrok
NIKKEI currently looks to me as the very best indicator of the overall market conditions... it's upper side is quite limited... there is still some space has left though...
Nikkei inching into the SELL area.
  • #426
  • Dec 17, 2019 6:02pm Dec 17, 2019 6:02pm
US markets, DJIA, NQ, etc. are unique amongst global markets. A look at the Dow over the last 100 hundred years is sobering and is a testament to the power of relatively low governmental intervention in business as compared to other global markets where intervention is either the rule or absolute as in communist/totalitarian-controlled economies. This must be taken into account when predicting the fate of the US stock market. Dire predictions for the US stock market (depression) as is suggested in this thread is not merely a "dip" to be take advantage of by savy investors/traders but rather a cataclysmic event that would devastate not only the US economy but the global economy. No one would benefit from such devastation. Fund managers would be wiped out and any advice to their investors would be a mute point since the Feds would completely take control of all monetary devices in an effort to save the economy. Trading would be defunct.

While such Armageddon-like events are possible it seems most of us are not living, investing or trading in such a paradigm. The US market/economy is unique given it's emphasis on allowing the individual to prosper. This is the power US markets and is why US markets have done nothing but go up... The Individual. Investing or trading for a long term economic downturn in the US is a losers game. Why? Because such a downturn is a losing game for everyone where no one wins.

Certainly short term down turns as in corrections or even so called "Black Swans" will occur but viewing these events as the beginning of the "end of the US stock market" is ludricous. And if that is the case then everyone will be a loser and it won't matter.

Buy dips. Invest by the tried and true dollar-cost-averaging in dips and significant downturns. Sure trade all you want. I short the US market all the time but not for some cataclysmic event.
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  • #427
  • Dec 17, 2019 9:23pm Dec 17, 2019 9:23pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} possible... at around $23...
Gotta disagree on this one. Diamond, flag, channel, Gann fans, fib levels, double top, or triple bottom, it doesn't matter.....the only way we will see Boeing at $23 from $327 is if one or more of the following happens:
1) a tremendous stock split,
2) multiple air disasters involving their planes, rockets or satellites,
3) a large scale terrorist attack involving the above, or
4) Greta Thunberg guilts the world into a production freeze on fuel

While I do like technical analysis a lot as mentioned previously, I have zero faith that any one indicator accurately predicts a collapse of a decade or three's market value in a stock. Mainly because you just don't see many $100+ stocks losing 75%-90% of their value with no major catalyst (such as the above) occurring unless maybe an IPO that's been pumped up or something.

Everyone knows stock prices are priced unreasonably, but that is already taken into account in the big scheme, and is why something like Google can continue to rise. Everyone knows it is not "worth" $1363/share, but that's almost $100 more than it was a week and a half ago. Stocks will NEVER get down to what they are worth as a company, only to what they are worth to speculative investors.

Just my $0.02.....
  • #428
  • Dec 17, 2019 11:45pm Dec 17, 2019 11:45pm
Quoting Igrok
there is another quite interesting and unusual deviation from normality that can be observed... I'm talking about eur/usd pair... so far it has made the shortest ever in its history yearly trading range... it stays way below average just less than a couple of weeks before the end of 2019... it might mean nothing at all or, all a sudden, it might increase its volatility dramatically in order to extend its trading range over the remaining period of time... same is true for USDX...
In direction of MMY will be great move reaching a gap at 1.06 -1.04 in few trading days!!! I am all for it. And if pound can join the herd will be even better. GBP looks like in a widening formation on daily with symmetrical left side and main diagonal (if it is formed ) to the upside so lets see what will rest of this formation looks like in next 6 months or so.
  • #429
  • Dec 18, 2019 12:03am Dec 18, 2019 12:03am
Quoting Argo
{quote} In direction of MMY will be great move reaching a gap at 1.06 -1.04 in few trading days!!! I am all for it. And if pound can join the herd will be even better. GBP looks like in a widening formation on daily with symmetrical left side and main diagonal (if it is formed ) to the upside so lets see what will rest of this formation looks like in next 6 months or so.
seems like that.... though the time is running out...
  • #430
  • Dec 18, 2019 12:04am Dec 18, 2019 12:04am
Quoting Winston Reed
US stock market (depression) as is suggested in this thread is not merely a "dip" to be take advantage of by savy investors/traders but rather a cataclysmic event that would devastate not only the US economy but the global economy. No one would benefit from such devastation. Fund managers would be wiped out and any advice to their investors would be a mute point since the Feds would completely take control of all monetary devices in an effort to save the economy. Trading would be defunct.
agree with the above... quite likely it's gonna be the case... and I'm scared...
  • #431
  • Dec 18, 2019 12:08am Dec 18, 2019 12:08am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Gotta disagree on this one. Diamond, flag, channel, Gann fans, fib levels, double top, or triple bottom, it doesn't matter.....the only way we will see Boeing at $23 from $327 is if one or more of the following happens: 1) a tremendous stock split, 2) multiple air disasters involving their planes, rockets or satellites, 3) a large scale terrorist attack involving the above, or 4) Greta Thunberg guilts the world into a production freeze on fuel While I do like technical analysis a lot as mentioned previously, I have zero faith that any one...
it's quite useless to try to analyze future based on today's reality... it will be a totally different one by the time...
  • #432
  • Dec 18, 2019 2:09am Dec 18, 2019 2:09am
Quoting Igrok
pic {image}
There is a anomaly of sell orders right at 3204 will it get there thats the question but reaction is imminent at this level.
  • #433
  • Dec 18, 2019 2:33am Dec 18, 2019 2:33am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Gotta disagree on this one. Diamond, flag, channel, Gann fans, fib levels, double top, or triple bottom, it doesn't matter.....the only way we will see Boeing at $23 from $327 is if one or more of the following happens: 1) a tremendous stock split, 2) multiple air disasters involving their planes, rockets or satellites, 3) a large scale terrorist attack involving the above, or 4) Greta Thunberg guilts the world into a production freeze on fuel While I do like technical analysis a lot as mentioned previously, I have zero faith that any one...
I decided to come back to your post cause it seems that people thinking same way are quite common... the largest problem of talking about future is that everyone while being involved into such a discussion usually tends to extrapolate today into that yet unknown tomorrow... that's the easiest way and qiute understandable indeed.... normally they foresee business as usual but with some minor cosmetic changes... since people are generally unable to imagine unimaginable therefore stuff happens from time to time... there are plenty of examples in history when such approach didn't work... and I believe this time is no exception... soon we are going to witness something unforeseeable...
  • #434
  • Dec 18, 2019 3:16am Dec 18, 2019 3:16am
Quoting Igrok
{quote}... soon we are going to witness something unforeseeable...

impeachment ---> extra-ordinary social unrest ---> collapsing markets

....is my bet
  • #435
  • Edited 3:53am Dec 18, 2019 3:30am | Edited 3:53am
Quoting PeterE
{quote} impeachment ---> extra-ordinary social unrest ---> collapsing markets ....is my bet
theoretically - quite possible...also TA points out at some trouble that is supposed to start at the end of the next year...

there are in fact several TA formations that can be considered as some sort of bifurcation points... I call them "areas" or "knots" of bifurcation, cause they are not actually points but are lengthy in time.... among known TA formations there are only three of those: diamonds, triangles and channels... therefore they mostly precede some serious events... in other words, it's possible to figure out the outcome of some event in the future simply on the basis of such a picture... because of that I knew all along and well in advance about the incoming crisis of 2008... I also knew in advance the outcome of the Brexit vote and some other stuff... same thing is here... 18K will be there on the DJI charts no matter what and regardless of any other reasons that can be taken now into consideration... and there will be yet unknown today fundamentals to justify that drop... they will appear out of nowhere in due time...
  • #436
  • Dec 18, 2019 8:17am Dec 18, 2019 8:17am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} theoretically - quite possible...also TA points out at some trouble that is supposed to start at the end of the next year... there are in fact several TA formations that can be considered as some sort of bifurcation points... I call them "areas" or "knots" of bifurcation, cause they are not actually points but are lengthy in time.... among known TA formations there are only three of those: diamonds, triangles and channels... therefore they mostly precede some serious events... in other words, it's possible to figure out the outcome of some...
igrok,

Do you believe we have seen the right side top of Nikkei’s diamond?
  • #437
  • Dec 18, 2019 9:18am Dec 18, 2019 9:18am
Quoting jupiter_peak
{quote} igrok, Do you believe we have seen the right side top of Nikkei’s diamond?
hard to tell... the only thing that I'm pretty much sure about is that the probability to get above the previous top at 24448 is quite low and it makes perfect sense to short it ahead of there with stops right above... means it might be a good indicator for S&P and Dow...
  • #438
  • Dec 18, 2019 9:32am Dec 18, 2019 9:32am
Thank you for your topic about stocks and the stock market of America. I like the American stock market. Currently trading Сfd-stocks. But I don’t understand when people try to trade SPY,DJ,Nasdac, when there are more than 9000 instruments on the market. Do not judge strictly, I'm new to the forum !!
  • #439
  • Dec 18, 2019 10:05am Dec 18, 2019 10:05am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} hard to tell... the only thing that I'm pretty much sure about is that the probability to get above the previous top at 24448 is quite low and it makes perfect sense to short it ahead of there with stops right above... means it might be a good indicator for S&P and Dow...
I shorted it yesterday with stops above the previous high.
  • #440
  • Dec 18, 2019 10:27am Dec 18, 2019 10:27am
Here is another one forming at the top of the range of USDBRL Daily chart.
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