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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #281
  • Dec 15, 2019 4:51am Dec 15, 2019 4:51am
Quoting Edd111111
Thanks Igrok, Have you had a chance to further consider the USD index, perhaps short term up and then down or do you see it more as a continuation diamond on the USD index ?
from my perspective USDX is quite bullish at the moment...I would expect it to revisit the high of 2017 first...
  • #282
  • Edited 10:17am Dec 15, 2019 7:40am | Edited 10:17am
I question your credibility completely. You say you've been a fund manager since 1993. What fund are you currently managing? The one fund you did manage is now defunct and it's web address has been removed. What are your credentials? Are you certified? Series, 3, 7, 65? Are you licensed by FINRA. Are you registered with SEC. Any professional certifications like that of a Chartered Financial Analyst. What education do you have? MBA, finance, economics or similar?

Do you actually trade and if so can you show evidence of that? Maybe even put a few charts with some trades, demo or live? Doesn't matter. Any Tom, Dick or Harry can write a FOREX book and many already have. Funny thing is most of them can't trade to save their lives.

You make wild predictions of a market collapse out of thin air based on nothing more than a diamond formation and have a cult following based on this ridiculousness. Just such a prediction IMHO nullifies any credibility you may have had. What professional fund manager would have a thread at FF with the title "The Collapse of the US Stock Market". What poor soul would invest their hard-earned money with such an individual making such outlandish predictions.

I will say like a soap opera it's kind of a sick sort of thing watching idiots like you.
Freedom is not free
  • #283
  • Dec 15, 2019 10:30am Dec 15, 2019 10:30am
Quoting Abe16
I question your credibility completely.
you seem to be a complete moron indeed...
- first of all, who the heck are you to demand anything from me or any other person in here on FF?...
- second, don't I have the same right to participate and to express my personal opinion freely as everyone else on this forum ?...
- third, do I somehow force anyone, including your stupid self, to read my books, my articles or my posts here or anywhere else?...
- fourth, can you provide any hard evidence (technical, fundamental, historical or any other) proving beyond reasonable doubt that the market will never ever be able to do what I'm expecting it to do in the future?...

if you answer those simple questions to my own satisfaction then, perhaps, I will also satisfy your curiosity... at least partially...
  • #284
  • Edited 11:19am Dec 15, 2019 11:01am | Edited 11:19am
Quoting ogbrugger
this is such a silly post , i know its really old and he probably knows he is wrong now, but we all must understand at this point there is no crash, we will not go through that crash again, But if you are expecting a recession then that is what you will get. We will not crash again because the banks will keep pumping. We are not in the pump and dump phase anymore, its just pump pump pump. Charts are the proof
usually I don't take any fundamentals into consideration as they are subject to serious changes over time... sometimes even radical ones... there are numerous examples in history... perhaps you're also aware of the fact that today's perceptions may not be valid in the future... personally I don't like what I see on the charts as it means a huge trouble for myself as well...
for the moment, from my personal perspective, the drop on the Dow back to about 18K level is practically guaranteed and must take place no matter what... the rest is questionable but nonetheless has some good probability...
  • #285
  • Dec 15, 2019 11:30am Dec 15, 2019 11:30am
Quoting Edd111111
Thanks Igrok, Have you had a chance to further consider the USD index, perhaps short term up and then down or do you see it more as a continuation diamond on the USD index ?
here is the picture... DXY daily chart... there is an obvious rising channel as we can see... its lower border has been penetrated already... though in such and similar to that situations the first break is usually a false one... likely to come back up again, then to go all the way up, to penetrate the upper border and to post some more or less sizable follow-through...
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  • #286
  • Dec 15, 2019 12:34pm Dec 15, 2019 12:34pm
Hello Igrok, I know this thread may not be the place for it.... BUT could you share your technical analysis view on Palladium?
Palladium almost touched $1980 before it pulled back to $1920. What do you expect Palladium to do? What areas are you looking into buy or sell if you were trading Palladium?
  • #287
  • Dec 15, 2019 12:43pm Dec 15, 2019 12:43pm
Quoting Forex.RayV1
Hello Igrok, I know this thread may not be the place for it.... BUT could you share your technical analysis view on Palladium? Palladium almost touched $1980 before it pulled back to $1920. What do you expect Palladium to do? What areas are you looking into buy or sell if you were trading Palladium?
https://www.metalsmine.com/showthread.php?p=12662892#post12662892

Sentiment : Sentiment from the daily sentiment index hit 90+ (extremely bought)
Technically : Lots of divergences from oscillator which could bring a correction (200/300 dollars)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #288
  • Dec 15, 2019 1:17pm Dec 15, 2019 1:17pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} https://www.metalsmine.com/showthread.php?p=12662892#post12662892 Sentiment : Sentiment from the daily sentiment index hit 90+ (extremely bought) Technically : Lots of divergences from oscillator which could bring a correction (200/300 dollars)
Thx Kuroro.
But with Dollar weakness predicted for the next few days or week; Palladium should be shooting further up and pushed further by speculators?
I'm expecting $2100 before it has a massive correction and that is very pessimistic view. $2300 could happen quiet easily as well?
  • #289
  • Edited 4:04pm Dec 15, 2019 1:19pm | Edited 4:04pm
Quoting Forex.RayV1
Hello Igrok, I know this thread may not be the place for it.... BUT could you share your technical analysis view on Palladium? Palladium almost touched $1980 before it pulled back to $1920. What do you expect Palladium to do? What areas are you looking into buy or sell if you were trading Palladium?
look how it normally works... each trend has to have a correction eventually... minimal correction has to reach at least 38.2% of the Fibo level...

now let's take a look what's going on with Palladium... picture №1 shows a correction made for the first uptrend which is in its turn a part of the bigger uptrend that started back in Jan 2016 and still continues... as we can see there was a correction in accordance with the Fibo rule...

then yet another leg had been developed and it also made a correction reaching this first Fibo level (pic#2)...

now it's in the making of the next leg up which is likely to be in its size similar to the first leg and likely shorter than the second one...... after that it also has to make a correction... so, at this point it already looks like topping out...

at the end there should be a correction for the whole trend that started from Jan 2016 and still in the making... also in accordance with Fibo rules...

that's just a general perception but there is absolutely no need to take such guesses as there are lots of simple technical things that normally allow a trader to execute profitable trades without even making any sort of predictions in advance...
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  • #290
  • Dec 15, 2019 4:58pm Dec 15, 2019 4:58pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} apparently there is no technical reasons to think this way... quite the opposite... on the fundamental side it mostly boils down to people's irrational belief that Fed will continue injecting huge amounts of freshly printed bucks into the market indefinitely and no matter what thus preventing it from falling... also we have to keep in mind that the most positive sentiment is always on the very top of a bullish trend and the most negative one is always on the very bottom of a bearish trend...
It's bullish since the very first creation of an index, since the very first vote of an interest rate, since the beginning of company era like we know nowaday, do you seriously think we gonna get back to GOLD era where's money supply was related to how much effort you digged for it ? It will never go back there so therefore the market will never collapse as much as you say it is impossible, litteraly impossible, every person who taught so been caught in an endless viscious circle of thinking that while the market always make new high. As long as inflation will exist it will go up, as much as company will sel things higher than inflation, its mathematical and it hasn't been created for thinking otherwise. It has been created to see that exponential growth and that rising curve, nothing else. You mean people will take over and there will be no more presence of private company ? Not happening sorry mate
  • #291
  • Dec 15, 2019 5:03pm Dec 15, 2019 5:03pm
By the image of your first text in this thread, you seriously think company are disapearing, like wtf hahahahahahaha
  • #292
  • Dec 15, 2019 6:09pm Dec 15, 2019 6:09pm
Quoting BarberQc
By the image of your first text in this thread, you seriously think company are disapearing, like wtf hahahahahahaha

in about 8 hours from now I will be sitting in a TV studio discussing on camera same very issues with some quite reputable macro-economists here in Moscow where I currently am...though I already know the answers to those questions of yours and will post them when I come back home...
  • #293
  • Dec 15, 2019 6:24pm Dec 15, 2019 6:24pm
a correction in the US equity? probably but given the skepticism im pretty sure we'll be creating ATHs for the time being.... headwinds like trade negotiations in China are slowly becoming tailwinds, thats going to be more a melt-up for the US equity rather than melt down.
i dont know who you are talking to but majority of the doomsday economists are losers, just look at the track record and track what would happen to their portfolio if they started to short sell the US equities and you'll realize they are all underwater....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #294
  • Edited 6:46pm Dec 15, 2019 6:29pm | Edited 6:46pm
Quoting fxtyrant
i dont know who you are talking to but majority of the doomsday economists are losers, just look at the track record and track what would happen to their portfolio if they started to short sell the US equities and you'll realize they are all underwater....
those are mostly top officials of the Russian government and some international entities... former and present... this one for example also... though not today... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Glazyev
  • #295
  • Dec 15, 2019 7:51pm Dec 15, 2019 7:51pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} those are mostly top officials of the Russian government and some international entities... former and present... this one for example also... though not today... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Glazyev
what im trying to say is that there have been lots of folks much more reputable being permabears and they have all fallen victims and thus becoming perma-losers....

one could also argue that the diamond formation could mean a further break higher... i can even go back in the charts and give you a couple more diamond formation only for S&P to break higher.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #296
  • Edited 8:10pm Dec 15, 2019 7:57pm | Edited 8:10pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} what im trying to say is that there have been lots of folks much more reputable being permabears and they have all fallen victims and thus becoming perma-losers.... one could also argue that the diamond formation could mean a further break higher... i can even go back in the charts and give you a couple more diamond formation only for S&P to break higher..... {image}
Amen!

A correction is inevitable and welcome to smart investors who know when to buy. Even a black swan would not lead to the "end of the US stock market" as history has already shown. Even holding and buying through a bona fide bear market is viable given that we are talking about the US market which drives the global economy. Dollar cost averaging into equity markets with solidly capitalistic underpinnings will always win.

Those who forecast "the end" demand to be called out. Those who go along with such predictions deserve what they get.
Freedom is not free
  • #297
  • Dec 15, 2019 8:14pm Dec 15, 2019 8:14pm
And Contrary to your argument Igrok, smart money is not seeing any correction in the US Equities...
im not against you for drawing diamond formations or whatnot, but majority of all correction have tell-tale signs of a market collapse.... not diamond shape formations....

and since we all know 2008 is caused by a sudden rise in interest rates leading to major defaults in the property market, im not going to go talk about that...

 

  1. European sovereign debt crisis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_sovereign_debt_crisis) (EU) (2009-2019) ---- Tax evasion and German forceful austerity measures in europe....

    1. Greek government-debt crisis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis) (2009-2019) ---- Tax evasion and German forceful austerity measures in europe....



  2. 2010-14 Portuguese financial crisis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010-14_Portuguese_financial_crisis) ---- Tax evasion and German forceful austerity measures in europe....
  3. Crisis in Venezuela (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela) (2012-) ---- Dictator with a hand hold on oil... also reason why theres an oil glut that got oil down to as low as 35 bucks a barrel.
  4. Ukrainian crisis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_crisis) (2013-2014) ---- Turmoil in crimea region due to Russia's escalating violence.
  5. 2014 Russian financial crisis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Russian_financial_crisis) ---- sanctions against Russia imposed by US and EU due to Russia involvement in Ukraine, Crimea
  6. 2014-2017 Brazilian economic crisis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014-2017_Brazilian_economic_crisis) ----well we all know aht this is... debt default.... and poor lady president who lost
  7. 2015 Chinese stock market crash (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Chinese_stock_market_crash) ---- This is clearly a case of China's tightening liquidity as seen in domestic china markets, they essecially squeezed liquidity to combat the issue of shadow banking in china, where people were finding ways to get RMB to leave China by means of HK stock connect or other means, their clampdown had the consequence that their trade ie Exports suffered badly enough for them to have a 180 U-turn in their policy.... as it threatened their growth prospect.
  8. Turkish currency and debt crisis, 2018 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_currency_and_debt_crisis,_2018) ---- this is clearly a trump vs erdogan ego fight.... dont think any chart could have predicted that....


All that is translating that EVERY financial crisis can be traced back to a particular FUNDAMENTAL reason that played out... not TECHNICAL diamond pattern non-sense....

and heres something to educate you a bit...
if you are predicting a US Equity Crisis, then why are VIX futures still in a healthy contango?? institutional would've bought up front month vix futures to the hill into a complete backwardation curve if it is to play out as you predicted.... but the whole Curve suggests no financial crisis to be seen for the entire duration of the whole year next year... now i wonder why that is??

if the institutional smart money are predicting a US collapse, first thing is they will definitely be buying up VIX futures to hedge their high S&P500 Beta bets with vix futures.
I dont see it.
Every month of the futures is trading at a premium to the previous month, is sign market is in a healthy contango and no sign of institutional hedging against S&P500.

And a 21.69% premium between 2nd month over 1st month means market is in a healthy situation where speculative Bears who are betting at a bearish correction in S&P500 in the form of buying any puts will have their option losing a lot of the value due to the heavy decay....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #298
  • Dec 15, 2019 8:20pm Dec 15, 2019 8:20pm
Quoting Abe16
{quote} Amen! A correction is inevitable and welcome to smart investors who know when to buy. Even a black swan would not lead to the "end of the US stock market" as history has already shown. Even holding and buying through a bona fide bear market is viable given that we are talking about the US market which drives the global economy. Dollar cost averaging into equity markets with solidly capitalistic underpinnings will always win. Those who forecast "the end" demand to be called out. Those who go along with such predictions deserve what they get....
think the Mayans predicted the apocalypse back in 2012 or sth??
end up its the apocalypse of their own people.... rest of the world faring happily not giving a single fk.....

Food for thought.... we had a 20% rise YTD in Dow jones on a bad year with Trump causing nothing but trouble at every turn....
10% should easily be achievable if Trump stays being the same old trump.....

we would finally be breakout out these DOW 30,000 hats!!!
Attached Image
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #299
  • Dec 15, 2019 8:50pm Dec 15, 2019 8:50pm
I mean only thing you could mention now that could be a potential problem for the US is the systemic issue of the US repo market..... liquidity dried up in the interbank world but thats usually the case as we approach year end.....

thats is perhaps the only threat you could be talking about but instead you're talking of diamond formations.....

now that the fed is keeping a close eye on the situation and is already seen dealing with this issue by keeping liquidity in the market in the form of a quant easing yet fed is adamant in not calling it easing....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #300
  • Edited 1:13am Dec 16, 2019 12:32am | Edited 1:13am
Quoting fxtyrant
And Contrary to your argument Igrok, smart money is not seeing any correction in the US Equities...
you don't seem to understand... I'm not arguing with anyone about anything... only expressing my opinion... people can take it into consideration or not... none of your arguments matters... Dow is set for at least 10K pips drop from current levels no matter what... and by the time it happens all the fundamentals will align accordingly to justify such a move...
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