Pivot Trading

It was just a word of advice. You obviously haven’t spent time here understanding what this thread is about. And then posting unrelated basket trading links? Pretty sure your time here will be cut short.

My friend please read the post you quoted.."you would know Davits position on people trying to be lazy and write EA's with this strategy"...it is not about you being lazy, it's speaks of Davit's position of people who write EA's with this strategy.

Trust me we are helping you, we have seen this play out before. Just sit back, learn and earn. Do your EA...just do it elsewhere...

I will do my EA. Thank you for your permission. I will not share it here it looks like since it's frowned upon SO MUCH. But I asked a legit question of Davit and am awaiting a reply. Do you mind me sticking around for that, or will that offend you? I will go back to coding commercially and if anybody wants anything they'll have to pay for it. Why? Because I've been treated so great here.

Don

A second hello to thread members and, in particular, the creator: Davit

I just finished reading the first and the last 200 pages of this thread with a positive approach, taking notes of important posts (only Davit's posts). I believe I am prepared enough to start my journey, which is why I've created a demo account, specifically dedicated to my new round of efforts. I've made it public so everyone can see my ups and downs.

Tomorrow, I'll post my first serious home work, that's a weekly analysis of the economic callendar. In addition, I'll post pictures of all my trades and all the thoughts that led to taking those trades.

Once again, I appreciate the great body of knowledge that you guys share here, especially you Davit.

Cheers...

Don,

I'm afraid your praise arrives with many sorrows attached.

My posting of the odd (once in a blue moon) offline basket chart is on invitation of Davit for one reason only: it is representative of the only thing this thread is based upon: pure and simple, manual trading with reference to pivot points and sound fundamental analysis and absolutely nothing else. This is also what others are trying to convey to you. Nobody doubts your abilities to cultivate an automated system, simply the fact that this thread is not the soil in which to sow those seeds. My own referral to an EA was not for automation, it is, on the contrary, for the manual placing of orders when Davit's trading conditions are met according to Pivot points.

To Davit and all senior members here, I am deeply sorry that it was my post that provoked this response. It is proof once again that if a small amount of leaven is worked into the bread, the whole loaf is affected. I will therefore refrain from any further posts here and apologize for the inconvenience.

Sincerely,

Lee

Hi disbellj
I am not a tech guy so can't help you.This system is hard to automate because lots of variations discretion involve.Example news red news does not automatically mean negative or positive does not mean bullish.Example Friday we had negative retail on USD but USD got stronger.There are reasons why that's the case which I rather not address now here.
There were group of guys who worked on Pivot EA but honestly can't find them.There was a thread and lots of excitement but dont know if they succeeded.
Good luck

Last parting note. After 11yrs of trading you should be trading this system easily without automation.

You should stay.No reason for you to leave

Thank you.

Indeed,its quite the thrill, i'm no stranger to this system, the whole of last year i kept watching this thread and saw how everyone who follow the rules makes a killing almost every day...i just didn't have a good enough device to trade it on, i think that's the reason why i picked it up so quickly, if i had not given in to fear i would have made about 400% yesterday, this entire weekend i will have to look into getting over fear of losing trades, i'm doing well, my draw down is not too bad at 16% but i can't convince my brain that everything is fine, i suppose that's what happens when you fail at Forex for 4 years straight.

does not seem you read "trading in the Zone" lots of information on fear.You need to work on your psychology and you know it.Now just apply yourself
You should read all books posted on clipboard. That's your weak link.Once you master you'll be on totally different level.You'll see the market as opportunity only.Does not come without work as everything else in life.

There is a thread here guys complaining they can't make money in forex hence dont think anyone else can either.These guys missed the point that success comes from hard work.You can just watch 1 MA cross the other and think that's going to make you rich.Delusional thinking. Takes lot more.

All baskets are based on pure price that I build. It's just based on one's desire to trade what they want the way they want, and be able to do it on one chart. Fibs and all are respected because it is based on pure price action, just of more than one currency pair. If USD news is coming out, I might prefer to look at the USD basket and trade those 7 pairs. When Davit mentions the majors, it's all USD-based, it's basically the USD basket, without USDCHF because Davit doesn't trade it. Baskets aren't a trading sin, so no need to act like you've done anything wrong.

Kindest regards,

Don

Davit, I use the news time to know when and what to trade, not trade direction. My question was simply how long you would look at e.g. an AUD pair in your group of pairs you watch if AUD news is coming out, after the news comes out, before you decide to not look at that pair any more for news movements. It could be EOD (end of day). It could be in minutes. I was asking how long you'll look at USD pairs after USD news before no longer looking for pairs to trade for that news event.

As far as nuances, I understand. But I also look at things differently than many. So where you see weekly pivots, I see levels (doesn't matter to me what kind of level), and I can easily code rejection. You have a price high (I see a Semafor, aka anchor), above the level and price closes below the level. That simple. If also looking for e.g. a 1-2-3, experience has shown me the lower the timeframe the more often you get the 1-2-3 pattern. And possibly using Demark trendlines to show breakout when there isn't a 1-2-3 pattern might be an addition, or looking on M15 and M30 for the 1-2-3 pattern.

My problem is same as cjayfx14, fear. All my live accounts blown by holding onto a losing trade. I recently made a trade button for a commercial program, so opening and closing trades is not a problem in theory. In practice in real market, I become basketcase and do what I know is wrong. And it's hard to keep your mind on one system, dare I say impossible, when you code to make your living. I've coded thousands of systems. Most incomplete. No it is not easy to code a successful EA.

Sorry I was/am too technical.

Thank you for your recent post on Mark Douglass.

When you say: "The method can’t force us to pre-define our risk, or with making the mistake of moving our stop closer and stopping us out prematurely, it can’t stop us from hesitating and getting in too late or from over-trading or from getting out too soon and leaving money on the table. No matter how good the method, if you make mental errors you will lose."

An EA does all these things for you, if you can leave the EA alone to do what it's supposed to without intervening.

Kindest regards,

Don

POINTS I am Considering for next week (NOT COMPLETED YET. I will EDIT IT LATER TODAY)


Mon

EUR PMI (French PMI, German PMI) The Indexes have to point to a recovery of sorts in November. The initial figures for December are projected to show further improvement. In France, both the manufacturing and services sectors are growing, albeit it a slow pace. The German manufacturing sector is still in the doldrums – contracting at a rapid clip, albeit off the lows. The PMI for the industrial sector stood at 44.1 points and is expected to advance to only 44.3 – below the 50-point threshold that separates extraction from contraction. In the meantime, in Germany is seeing its services sector slowing down, with 51.7 points. The composite index for the whole continent is set tick from 50.6 to 50.9 points, indicating meager expansion. All in all, investors want to see if the recent green shoots can turn into growth, or if they are only a temporary recovery before another downturn.

Looking for shorts on EC on 1.47 ~ 1.475 and, EA 1.627 ~1.63.

Looking for shorts on EC 1.47 ~ 1.475 and EA 1.627 ~1.63

GBP PMI (UK PMI) The preliminary PMIs for the UK have been compiled before the elections, and may not fully reflect the full reaction. Nevertheless, they may move the pound. The manufacturing sector is set to recover from 48.9 to 50.7 points, while the services sector carries expectations of falling from 49.3 to 48.9 points in December – reflecting weakness in Britain’s largest sector.

Looking for shorts on GU, if prices reach 1.35 again


Tues


GBP Unemployment Rate Maybe low impact this UK jobs report, but I'll be watching because Unemployment has stood at the historic low of 3.8% in September and a minor increase to 3.9% is on the cards now. Wages have continued advancing at a satisfactory pace of 3.6% – both including and excluding wages. The figures have no political impact at this point, but they will influence the Bank of England’s decision later in the week

Looking for shorts on GU, if prices reach 1.35 again


Weds


German Ifo Business Climate Similar to PMIs, Germany’s No. 1 think tank has been showing a minor recovery. The main indicator stood at 95 points while the Current Assessment was at 97.9 points in November. The last release of 2019 will likely show similar figures.
Looking for shorts on EC 1.47 ~ 1.475

UK CPI y/y ( inflation) The Consumer Price Index has been slipping to lower ground, hitting a low of 1.5% yearly in October. A minor acceleration to 1.6% is on the cards. Core CPI is set to remain unchanged at 1.7%. This is further input for the BOE.

Looking for shorts on GU, if prices reach 1.35 again

New Zealand GDP q/q Recently hit by an eruption of a volcano, has seen yearly growth at 2.1% in the second quarter. A minimal slowdown to 2% is on the cards for the third one. New Zealand releases Gross Domestic Product numbers only once per quarter, making every release more impactful.

holding AN against me. I almost close it at BE when the price reached 1.0482. Looking to close it this week with no gain.

AUD - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate Australia’s labor market badly disappointed in October with a loss of 19,000 jobs. Expectations are higher this time, with an increase of 15,000 positions and an increase from 66% to 66.1 in the participation rate – keeping the jobless rate unchanged at 5.3%..


Thurs


JPY BOJ Policy Rates The Bank of Japan has left the interest rate unchanged at -0.10% for several years, as it aims to lift inflation without hurting banks too much. It also aims to keep long-term lending costs muted – by targeting the ten-year yields. I am considering they will likely leave rates unchanged at the last meeting of the year.

Yen has been accumulating losses for 2 straight weeks. I am happy with that and I hope another week of loss to the yen because I have 2 debtor positions AJ and EJ



GBP - UK Official Bank Rate decision Two members of the Bank of England surprised markets by voting for a rate cut in November. Despite deteriorating economic conditions, the BOE will likely leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% in its last meeting of the year. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is set to end his tenure at the end of the year but may be asked to stay on for longer. The accompanying meeting minutes are of interest, as they will shed light on the voting pattern and also set the stage for policy in 2020. The latest jobs and inflation figures may be referred to in the publication.

Looking for shorts on GU, if prices reach 1.35 again

Fri


UK Final GDP q/q The final read of Britain’s GDP growth in the third quarter is expected to confirm the 0.3% read – which showed that the UK avoided a recession. Any downgrade may weigh on the pound, especially as recent monthly GDP numbers for October have shown no growth.

USD US Final GDP q/q The second read of Q3 GDP surprised with an upgrade to 2.1% annualized growth – better than 1.9% originally reported. A similar figure is likely in the third and final read. Any change may move markets amid thin liquidity, as many traders will have left for their Christmas holidays
..
Looking for....

Thank you for your post.

Thank you for your post.

Both are a refreshing reprieve of the last few posts. Dedication, being teachable, and humbleness coupled with being open to receive goes a long way. This system will reward you well. Enjoy the ride...

Davit,

I also have CSM (Currency Strength Meter) coded, so can tell what's getting stronger/weaker. But because I showed a picture, I basically got attacked and had to try to defend me even being here, which is taken as I'm not teachable because I have the experience I do and am not afraid to say that what I code is worthwhile? I promised no one here anything, nor tried to push my EA on anyone. Thank you for being basically the only understanding person in your group that responded like a human being should. Kudos and take care.

Kindest regards,

Don

When I said this system is discretionary I meant it.I can't answer how long I'll wait for news before after all depends how market reacts and if I see value to trade and if there is an EDGE.Too many X factors. This is like asking a karate master how long will you wait until strike back....maybe a less then a second maybe lot more time.Depends what the opponent does...
Sorry I am going to remove you from here.I see no value continuing this here.

Great job I am sure it took some time but I bet you feel lot more confident week ahead.You are geared up and oiled gassed ready.
It teaches you also as you go through this numbers.I find it fascinating like NZD business confidence -76.40 percent in December of 1974 lowest.Staff like this makes trading fun. We are learning the gears and cogs of the market.That's fascinating me.Bonus part makes making money from it easier

Still working on mine.

Overview for the week
Year coming to an end take profits on positions will provide sharp moves and it will be interesting to see if USD bulls take control last real trading week of the year or dump and same for Pound.Brexit is going to happen but great deal of uncertainty still there in trade and border issues.My hunch is Pound may drop lower 1.31-1.30 before going new fresh legs up.Strong data towards end of the week on AUD and NZD and should be good for AN long...Why?Market finds a way to go along with correction...I know its confusing but happens.

Monday Huge day

French PMI's are generally not movers so skipping this to German and I think market reaction would be the same since French is 15min earlier then German
German PMI forcast 44.6 that's slightly greener forecast then previous.

Germany Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 44.1 in November 2019 from a preliminary estimate of 43.8 and compared to October's final 42.1. The latest reading was the highest since June, but still comfortably inside contraction territory. Output contracted for the tenth consecutive month, the longest sequence of decline since 2008-09, while both new orders and export sales fell at the slowest pace since January. In addition, buying levels and employment across the manufacturing sector dropped at softer rates, while business sentiment was in positive territory for the first time since June. On the price front, input costs fell by the most since March 2016, amid reductions in the price of chemicals, metals and plastics; and average factory gate charges decreased for the fifth month due to strong competition for new work. Manufacturing PMI in Germany averaged 51.68 from 2008 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 63.30 in December of 2017 and a record low of 32 in January of 2009.
Notes to self Slight green may propel Euro crosses up which could provide selling opportunities like EC EA. Brexit pressure is still there on the Euro hence breaking above 147 EC and 162.50+ EA requires lot more solid fundamentals.Any upsurge may be temporary.

GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.1 /Flash Services PMI 49.6
Both slightly green forcast.UK Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 48.9 in November 2019 from a preliminary estimate of 48.3 and compared to October's final reading of 49.6. Output shrank at a faster pace and new orders fell for the seventh month in a row, with new export orders declining at one of the steepest rates over the past seven years, following the delay to Brexit and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the political, economic and global trade situations. In addition, employment dropped the most since September 2012 due to cost reduction efforts, efficiencies, Brexit uncertainty, redundancies, natural wastage and staff restructuring. Finished goods inventories fell at the steepest rate in over two-and-a-half years, while input buying volumes fell to one of the greatest extents since early-2013. On the price front, input costs decreased for the first time since March 2016, linked to lower global commodity prices and exchange rate effects. Manufacturing PMI in the United Kingdom averaged 51.95 from 2008 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 61.50 in January of 2011 and a record low of 34.40 in November of 2008
notes to self.After jubilant reaction of Brexit any good green number on UK may propel more buying jumping on Pound bandwagon. USE caution trading GBP

USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.6 same as previous
US Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 52.6 in November of 2019 from a preliminary of 52.2 and 51.3 in October. The reading pointed to the strongest expansion in factory activity in seven months, supported by quicker expansions in production and new orders, with both domestic and foreign client demand strengthening. Business confidence remained historically muted, however, as global economic uncertainty continued to weigh on expectations. Manufacturing PMI in the United States averaged 53.64 from 2012 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 57.90 in August of 2014 and a record low of 50.30 in August of 2019
Notes to self Should EU and UK PMI's print red and USD green Euro/USD could be perfect set up to short.Will wait to see how events unfold

NZD ANZ Business Confidence
The ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand jumped to -26.4 in November 2019 from -42.4 in the previous month and beating market expectations of -30.8. It was the highest reading since December last year, as firms’ expectations for their own activity over the year ahead rose to its strongest level in 2019 (12.9 from -3.5 in October). Also, employment (+3.2 from -9.4); investment (+5.6 from -5.5); and exports (+1.2 from -0.4) went up into positive territory. Among sectors, both commercial (5.9 from a flat reading) and residential construction (7.9 from -5.3) increased. Business Confidence in New Zealand averaged 4.03 percent from 1970 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 80.90 percent in February of 1994 and a record low of -76.40 percent in December of 1974

Notes to self- a big one since there isn't much else on NZD except GDP until end of the year hence negative here may produce over reaction moves specially on AN
AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
From last meeting -The Board concluded that the cash rate should be held steady at this meeting. As part of their deliberations, members also agreed that it was reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates would be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. The Board would continue to monitor developments, including in the labor market, and was prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
The Decision
The Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75 per cent.
Notes to self with possible China trade deal showing possible positive outcome RBA may project slightly positive outlook which should lift AUD higher.Remains to be seen.

Weds

GBP CPI y/y
The consumer price inflation in the United Kingdom fell to 1.5 percent year-on-year in October 2019 from 1.7 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 1.6 percent. That was the lowest rate since November 2016, mainly due to a slowdown in housing & utilities prices as a regulator's tariff cap pushed down electricity and gas cost. Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 2.56 percent from 1989 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 8.50 percent in April of 1991 and a record low of -0.10 percent in April of 2015

Notes to self-Should Monday data print red and cpi comes out red expect market to dump GBP crosses like GC very attractive...

Canada Inflation Rate MoM
The Consumer Price Index in Canada increased 0.30 percent in October of 2019 over the previous month. Inflation Rate Mom in Canada averaged 0.29 percent from 1950 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.60 percent in January of 1991 and a record low of -1.30 percent in June of 1959

NZD GDP q/q
The New Zealand economy advanced 0.5 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2019, slowing from a 0.6 percent expansion in the previous period but beating market expectations of 0.4 percent. The services sector, which represents about two-thirds of the economy, was the main contributor to GDP, increasing 0.7 percent (vs 0.3 percent in Q1), of which retail trade & accommodation (0.7 percent vs -0.6 percent); transport, postal & warehousing (1.8 percent vs 1.2 percent); and financial & insurance services (0.8 percent vs 0.7 percent). Also, primary industries rose 0.7 percent, rebounding from a 0.5 percent contraction, driven by agriculture, forestry & fishing (1.6 percent vs -2 percent). Meanwhile, the secondary sector shrank 0.2 percent (vs 1.9 percent in Q1), due to manufacturing (-0.8 percent vs 1.2 percent) and construction (-0.8 percent vs 1.9 percent). On a yearly basis, the GDP advanced 2.1 percent, easing from a 2.5 percent expansion in Q1. GDP Growth Rate in New Zealand averaged 0.64 percent from 1987 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in the third quarter of 1999 and a record low of -2.40 percent in the first quarter of 1991
Notes to self projection is green however anything less then 0.5 should have huge impact

AUD Employment Change generous 15.2k forecast from terrible previous
AUD Unemployment Rate same 5.3
Notes to self.Very likely AN shoots high and will hold these trades.

JPY Monetary Policy Statement
expecting same old dovish statements however BOJ can't go lower hence JPY should remain neutral.

Thurs big day for GBP

GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.2% small green forecast.May not matter much...
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes same next
Monetary Policy Summary-Not expecting robust positive outlook more cautious defensive approach

Friday

GBP Current Account
generally not much market mover.

CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
Can we get surprise here? Will see
Retail sales in Canada decreased 0.1 percent month-over-month in September 2019, after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in the previous month and matching market expectations. It was the first decline in retail trade in three months, as sales dropped at motor vehicle & parts dealers (-1 percent), namely new car dealers (-1.9 percent); and gasoline stations (-2.3 percent). On the other hand, receipts increased at food & beverage stores (1.2 percent), in particular at supermarkets & other grocery stores (1.1 percent) and beer, wine & liquor (3.2 percent); and building material & garden equipment and supplies dealers (3.3 percent). Year-on-year, retail trade went up 1 percent, slowing from an upwardly revised 1.3 percent rise in August. Considering the third quarter as a whole, retail sales advanced 0.5 percent, easing from a 1.1 percent gain in the prior quarter. Retail Sales MoM in Canada averaged 0.36 percent from 1991 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 3.70 percent in December of 1997 and a record low of -4.50 percent in January of 1998

In summery this should be great week.Unfortunately 3people on vacation on my job and piled extra shifts on me hence may miss some great trades.Can't wait to quite this job
Put work rip your pips.

OK, like I said yesterday, here's my humble notes on the next week's calendar:

What we saw over the past week:

1. US-China appear to have reached a phase-one deal. This can be the beginning of some recovery in China (and the global) economy in 2020.
2. UK Boris Johnson's re-election sets the UK to divorce EU in a month.
3. US Fed clearly signalled it'll be on hold over the coming year.
4. ECB meeting provided no changes.

The most important events over the coming week:

1. EUR: on Wednesday: we'll see Germany's Ifo figures (Business Climate Index). In the past couple of month, Germany has been getting away from the downside zone and we look out for whether this continues.
2. GBP: on Monday: Given that the services sector is a more significant area in UK's economy (in terms of its influence on GDP), Services PMI will show how far we are still into recession. Another indicator will be Tuesday's Average Earnings Index which will show how serious are employment sharp slowdown seen recently.
3. JPY: This is my favourite data this week. BoJ has been doing some serious QE lately to depreciate JPY and boos exports. They have already indicated they will do this as long as it's necessary. On Wednesday we'll have Exports (YoY) (Nov) which will show how successful they have been. I personally would love to see some disappointing figures to go bullish on EJ. Friday's National Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) will be another interesting data to follow to be able to understand how BoJ guys are feeling.

Cheers ...

we need a tools where we can see not just the previous release and the market forecast for the upcoming release.
We need a tools where it also shows the Minimum and Maximum forecasts based on analyst surveys.
The minimum and maximum numbers are very important. They let us know when an event has deviated significantly from market expectations.
many times market do not moves even slightly below or slightly above expectations.
but how much above and how much below?
Really need something that show when actual numbers came in below the minimum or above the maximum forecasts. These can provide good trading opportunities.