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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #241
  • Dec 6, 2019 2:03pm Dec 6, 2019 2:03pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} I don't really know how to explain my concept better than I have already done... I already posted all the pictures needed to get to the point and still there is some sort of controversy exists... so far, there is no diamond on the charts... that's quite obvious and can be seen from a single glance at it... there is however a broadening triangle still in the making, which has a good potential to turn into a fully legit diamond in about a year or so... IF and WHEN it happens then my outlook comes into the game...
My apologies. On the first post you drew a diamond that was potentially under development. I also didn't understand that this isn't currently your outlook and you were waiting for it. Your thread is title End of US Stock Market is nearing, not "End of US Stock Market MIGHT be nearing".

But the market has since broken to the upside of that specific drawing. The upper expanding triangle line has also been broken. If this immediately reverses from here, and the expanding triangle still existed, this would point toward a decline to maybe 18,000 (still rather catostrophic).
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Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #242
  • Edited 7:49pm Dec 6, 2019 7:04pm | Edited 7:49pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} My apologies. On the first post you drew a diamond that was potentially under development. I also didn't understand that this isn't currently your outlook and you were waiting for it. Your thread is title End of US Stock Market is nearing, not "End of US Stock Market MIGHT be nearing". But the market has since broken to the upside of that specific drawing. The upper expanding triangle line has also been broken. If this immediately reverses from here, and the expanding triangle still existed, this would point toward a decline to maybe 18,000...
I cannot write one more book for each and every little thing that I'm talking about... others must use their own brains to fill in the details... besides, those who read my writings, including the entire thread on this forum dedicated to my book, already know that rising resistances and declining supports do not usually have any accuracy in them and that the borders on the left part of a diamond do not have/serve any other significance/purpose but to outline it vaguely with some degree of approximation...https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=21887
they also know that every broadening triangle in the making normally has a good chance to turn into a diamond eventually... though in our case, and even without any diamond being eventually formed on the very top of the current trend, a retracement to at least 18.000 is rather a must for a number of reasons that would take too long for me to mention and to explain here... besides, my reason of posting my opinion here is not for any educational purpose but to warn colleagues of some signs of a huge potential trouble ahead that they might be missing themselves... and I'm not a prophet but just a freaking professional trader with 26+ years of practical experience...
  • #243
  • Dec 7, 2019 1:09am Dec 7, 2019 1:09am
Hi @Igrok, Do you see a diamond also forming on the daily DJIA different diamond to the weekly / Monthly ? that is a diamond within a diamond. It seems your not to happy with Russia at present, or communism in general, perhaps the violence that is required to sustain it is the part that most find difficult. I apologise i have not seen all your interviews, however do you see communism / capitalism as symbiotic in nature ? (that is co dependent?) Also with the re-emergence of separate currencies (independent) will they be truly independent or will they need to be symbiotic to endure without violence? apologies if I am not clear.
  • #244
  • Edited 3:03am Dec 7, 2019 1:40am | Edited 3:03am
Quoting Edd111111
Hi @Igrok, Do you see a diamond also forming on the daily DJIA different diamond to the weekly / Monthly ? that is a diamond within a diamond. It seems your not to happy with Russia at present, or communism in general, perhaps the violence that is required to sustain it is the part that most find difficult. I apologise i have not seen all your interviews, however do you see communism / capitalism as symbiotic in nature ? (that is co dependent?) Also with the re-emergence of separate currencies (independent) will they be truly independent or will...
a real diamond cannot be integrated into some other formation or some sort of a consolidation pattern regardless of its nature... it's always being formed at the very top/bottom of a clearly visible trend...

I'm not an expert in politics and my opinion isn't any better than anyone else's... though political and social-wise on a very subjective personal level I can just say that while living in the States I feel myself like some kind of a time traveler for quite a while already... the direction the country is going into I don't like much since I have a strong feeling that I have already been living in the American future before... it reminds me more and more of the former Soviet Union... the table has turned... US today looks more and more like the SU as it was back then over 40 years ago... while the modern Russia is looking more like US in the 20-30-th of the 20-th century for as much as I know about it... and this is my first more or less prolonged visit to Russia in about 27 years... such a feeling (or rather a concept) cannot be explained to a natural born westerner because of the lack of personal experience and inability to compare them both...

and one more thing... it seems that you're trying to compare something incomparable... communism is an ideology while capitalism is an economic formation... the difference is pretty much like between "blue" and "square"... one is a color while another is a shape... economy-wise SU was run like a huge corporation not much different from any capitalistic entity... and it also had an ideology within... the table has turned 180 degree since then... now modern Russia has no ideology at all whatsoever while the West has accepted an official liberal ideology quite similar in many instances to the communistic one...
  • #245
  • Dec 7, 2019 4:04am Dec 7, 2019 4:04am
Thanks Igkrok, from what I see, both diamonds share the same high point, it is merely the lines drawn around broadening triangles that changes , could both be correct ? As for the blue and square, I see them more as styles of Management of corporations (borrowed from your analogy). As I have grown older I have really appreciated the view of history repeating in different manifestations. As you rightly say that the perspective you offer is unique to those who have witnessed both times in Russia, although you will have by the same account bias feelings and memories. I do feel that not only the USA but a lot of the west has stagnated for some time and that a catalyst for a paradigm shift must ensue to jump the masses out of the malaise. Perhaps this will be Googles Quantum computer , who can say. Perhaps the similarities between the Russia then and the USA now is the stagnation ? during the 1950's the west as a whole was most productive, and in completion with largely Russia. Effectively the pressure has been released since maybe the early 70's for the West and the drive for productivity and achievement also diminishing in terms of rate. As you have alluded to earlier , we are likely to see pain and suffering along with violence with the serious marking down of markets in the near future, do you see a way to soften the blow for the masses ?
  • #246
  • Edited 6:20am Dec 8, 2019 6:06am | Edited 6:20am
Quoting Edd111111
As you have alluded to earlier , we are likely to see pain and suffering along with violence with the serious marking down of markets in the near future, do you see a way to soften the blow for the masses ?
that's what I'm trying to figure out myself by interviewing each and every serious macro-economist that I come across here in Moscow, whether it's in private conversation or in front of the camera... so far I haven't been able to find a single optimist among them... all their views about not so distant future for the World economy are extremely negative... and none of them can offer some sort of a recipe for avoiding the disaster... they can see no light at the end of the tunnel...
  • #247
  • Dec 8, 2019 10:32am Dec 8, 2019 10:32am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} that's what I'm trying to figure out myself by interviewing each and every serious macro-economist that I come across here in Moscow, whether it's in private conversation or in front of the camera... so far I haven't been able to find a single optimist among them... all their views about not so distant future for the World economy are extremely negative... and none of them can offer some sort of a recipe for avoiding the disaster... they can see no light at the end of the tunnel...
The Mr. Hazin has ideas but no one hears
  • #248
  • Dec 8, 2019 10:41am Dec 8, 2019 10:41am
Quoting Alex III
{quote} The Mr. Hazin has ideas but no one hears
no problem... Mr. Khazin's book will soon be available in English also... meanwhile I just asked him today to send me some short version of his theory, which I'm going to translate into English and post here... quite an unusual view on what's going on around and what kind of future we might expect...
  • #249
  • Dec 8, 2019 5:47pm Dec 8, 2019 5:47pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} a real diamond cannot be integrated into some other formation or some sort of a consolidation pattern regardless of its nature... it's always being formed at the very top/bottom of a clearly visible trend... I'm not an expert in politics and my opinion isn't any better than anyone else's... though political and social-wise on a very subjective personal level I can just say that while living in the States I feel myself like some kind of a time traveler for quite a while already... the direction the country is going into I don't like much...
The US in no way resembles the SU now or in the past nor will it in the future. Your comparisons and contrasts are nonsensical. The SU is communist through and through and it's "citizens" are not free. The SU continues to be run by tryrannical leadership as it has for many years and it's citizens are far from free. The US continues to be a completely free country where the people are still in charge of the government. The US has been and still is a republic with strong freedom-based underpinnings. Capitalism is a natural part of a free society. It encourages entrepreneurship and results in a growing and expanding economy. State-driven economies that are a natural part of socialism and communism are naturally stifling to business as th3ey are run by state-approved oligarchs as is done in the SU.

You are wrong about the ideology in Russia. It is communism to the core.

The US (West) has not accepted an official liberal ideology so you are absolutely incorrect in this regard. In fact the sham impeachment hearings going on right now in the US are all about one thing: Republicanism/democracy vs socialism/communism. The US was founded on the principles of freedom of the individual. Freedom loving US citizens will not allow socialism/communism to overtake the US.
Freedom is not free
  • #250
  • Dec 8, 2019 9:46pm Dec 8, 2019 9:46pm
yeah... right... ignorance is bliss... denial is a strategy also... especially nowadays...
  • #251
  • Dec 9, 2019 4:52am Dec 9, 2019 4:52am
It is the responsibility of every government to let human beings live a happy life. Eliminate poverty, reject war, and defeat disease. No matter what doctrine it is. Human beings live in the same village -- the earth
  • #252
  • Dec 9, 2019 8:21am Dec 9, 2019 8:21am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} I cannot write one more book for each and every little thing that I'm talking about... others must use their own brains to fill in the details...
I'm not sure what in my post insinuated that another book was necessary.

Quoting Igrok
{quote}besides, those who read my writings, including the entire thread on this forum dedicated to my book, already know that rising resistances and declining supports do not usually have any accuracy in them and that the borders on the left part of a diamond do not have/serve any other significance/purpose but to outline it vaguely with some degree of approximation...https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=21887
Yes, those of us who haven't read your book also know this. All drawings are approximations.

Quoting Igrok
{quote} they also know that every broadening triangle in the making normally has a good chance to turn into a diamond eventually...
Yes, I would imagine that's a possibility, although expanding triangles also have opportunity to fail and break into a protracted trend (a breakout). Breakouts are of course low probability in general, but can offer good reward for the risk.

Quoting Igrok
{quote}though in our case, and even without any diamond being eventually formed on the very top of the current trend, a retracement to at least 18.000 is rather a must for a number of reasons that would take too long for me to mention and to explain here...
I just don't understand when you take a short. There have been plenty of "tops" over the last 12 years, none of which have resulted in an actual top. I myself have been far too underweight equities since 2014 as I kept thinking there was a top also (but fortunately have had enough exposure to do okay). I also think much of the general public has been underweight as well and until such a time as the masses re-enter in earnest, I would imagine that continued slow trickle up continues.

Quoting Igrok
{quote}besides, my reason of posting my opinion here is not for any educational purpose but to warn colleagues of some signs of a huge potential trouble ahead that they might be missing themselves... and I'm not a prophet but just a freaking professional trader with 26+ years of practical experience...
I did not say you were a prophet, just questioning the technical reasons for this forecast. I think your fundamental reasons are perhaps driving your thesis more than technical, but given that this is primarily a "technical analysis" forum, you are using technicals to try to depict some of the rationale.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #253
  • Edited 2:12pm Dec 9, 2019 10:50am | Edited 2:12pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} I'm not sure what in my post insinuated that another book was necessary. {quote} Yes, those of us who haven't read your book also know this. All drawings are approximations. {quote} Yes, I would imagine that's a possibility, although expanding triangles also have opportunity to fail and break into a protracted trend (a breakout). Breakouts are of course low probability in general, but can offer good reward for the risk. {quote} I just don't understand when you take a short. There have been plenty of "tops" over the last 12 years, none of...
sure it's based on some technical reasons... some of those reasons are the following:
1. there was a single-diagonal diamond on the DJIA chart formed in 2014-2016...
2. obviously it was a continuation kind of pattern with the measured objective target at above 28K, which became apparent and confirmed in April, 2016...
3. as we can see now, the market is in the making of some sort of a consolidation that at this point resembles a broadening triangle, which is likely to turn into a reversal diamond eventually...
4. the measured objective target has also been reached in the process already...
5. it's well known from classic TA that any major trend always has a correction...
6. it's also known that a minimal correction always reaches 38,2% Fibo level at least...
7. in our particular case just because of the diamond being formed in the middle of the trend we can also safely assume that on its way down the market must reach the level where the diamond was formed back then...
8. each trend cycle usually takes about 10 years in average and current major bullish trend started in 2009...
9. thus being said and altogether it calls for the return to at least 18K level initially starting from about right now...
  • #254
  • Dec 9, 2019 11:47am Dec 9, 2019 11:47am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} sure it's based on some technical reasons... some of those reasons are the following: 1. there was a single-diagonal diamond on the DJIA chart formed in 2014-2016... 2. obviously it was a continuation kind of pattern with the measured objective target at above 28K, which became apparent and confirmed in April, 2016... 3. as we can see now, the market is in the making of some sort of a consolidation that at this point resembles a broadening triangle, which is likely to turn into a reversal diamond eventually... 4. the measured objective target...

Under this premise we are looking at a 10 year Bear trend dropping back to 18K? Ouch! If Djia drops to 18K USD/JPY could see that 98 being a reality once again.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #255
  • Edited 12:20pm Dec 9, 2019 12:08pm | Edited 12:20pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Under this premise we are looking at a 10 year Bear trend dropping back to 18K? Ouch! If Djia drops to 18K USD/JPY could see that 98 being a reality once again.
that's the best case scenario... seems like a must to me... though the worst case would be the market's full return to 5K level... also looks plausible... 80% chance I would estimate IF the diamond in the making will confirm itself...
  • #256
  • Dec 10, 2019 10:33am Dec 10, 2019 10:33am
I think Trump will ruin sp500 in Dec.
All goes to this outcome. If he is not going to change his mind dramaticcaly as he likes, or won't give one more twitter post about China
  • #257
  • Dec 12, 2019 6:18am Dec 12, 2019 6:18am
HI All,
Just thought I would add some other ideas to the thread, the PTJ video on capitalism is probably timely https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whva1AVXScA . Also block-chaining is gaining in both the mercantile field along with other trust fields such as government records etc. I don't necessarily mean the regular ones but perhaps there is something just behind the current field which could be used as a massive disruption. Presently the daily diamond seems to be holding well for me at least and I look forward to the result of the UK election, or perhaps it will be non result . Happy trading all.
  • #258
  • Dec 12, 2019 7:33pm Dec 12, 2019 7:33pm
Oh Man!. Just can't stop winning. I love all you US sellers!
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Freedom is not free
  • #259
  • Dec 13, 2019 6:13am Dec 13, 2019 6:13am
Quoting Abe16
Oh Man!. Just can't stop winning. I love all you US sellers! {image}

And suddenly you'll make money when/if it goes down.....
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #260
  • Dec 13, 2019 6:29am Dec 13, 2019 6:29am
If you're not biased about diamond formations you'll find different interpretations of their meaning. I've found they can be reversal signals at tops and bottoms and oh my...continuation signals. Go figure. This is why I stopped trading technical pattern formations long ago. They are unreliable.

I think I'll keep buying US market dips and increasing my nest egg.
Freedom is not free
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